MLB 2024 Draft

[BimboColesHair]

That's probably true, but there isn't much to go by and any of the top talents could have posted those numbers in such a small sample. I would think, and I'm probably wrong, there a numerous other things that have more influence. Size, speed, EV's, contact %, SO/BB and a few other metrics we typically look at have to have some influence.

How much projection goes into a pick?

But none of them did, and that's why it's a big deal even though it's just 50 PAs. Bazzana, Montgomery, Wetherholt, any of these guys at the top of the draft who played in the Cape this past year, did not post bad numbers. Only Condon. So it becomes a question on Condon but not those 3. It's not a good or a bad thing, it's just 1 more thing that needs checked off on and 1 more thing to add on to the evaluation process that decision makers have to feel comfortable about.

And there are a ton of things that have more influence. The Cape is only part of the evaluation process. Teams aren't making decisions based off of Cape performances alone. But they do know poor Cape performance typically isn't a means to professional success.

Projection is more for HS players than it is for college players. Idea now at the top of the draft if you go college player is to get someone who is good now and can run through the minors in 8-18 months and be an immediate impact in the MLB. Guys like Neto, Schanuel, Langford, Cowser, etc.

 

[CBBI]

Projection is more for HS players than it is for college players. Idea now at the top of the draft if you go college player is to get someone who is good now and can run through the minors in 8-18 months and be an immediate impact in the MLB. Guys like Neto, Schanuel, Langford, Cowser, etc.

In an interesting twist, Nolan Schanuel sucked pretty bad in the Cape (.200 BA, .614 OPS) and it didn't stop him from coming back and kicking all sorts of ass in college the next year and being drafted 11th overall.

Neto crushed it in the Cape.

 

[BimboColesHair]

In an interesting twist, Nolan Schanuel sucked pretty bad in the Cape (.200 BA, .614 OPS) and it didn't stop him from coming back and kicking all sorts of ass in college the next year and being drafted 11th overall.

Neto crushed it in the Cape.

BABIP killed him.

Batted ball metrics and contact stats were all pluses. 1:1 BB to K ratio. Why you dig deeper into the data than just the slashline.

And we really wanted Schanuel. Which tells you it's possible to put up a bad slash in the Cape and still be drafted high by Cleveland. Know there are some people who assume we overvalue the Cape compared to others, but that isn't entirely true.

 

[CBBI]

 

[PocketMonger]

They have to take Condon even if he’s riskier than Bazanna. Condon looking like a guy who could hit 40HRs someday. Cleveland hasn’t seen 40HR power since 2006 with Travis Hafner.

 

[Ob1]

Why are we only talking about condons <50 a in the cape league and ignoring he played for team USA right after with wood bats and absolutely blew the cover off the ball?

 

[Criznit]

I like Bazanna a lot and would still consider him a solid pick.

But it seems like Condon is pulling away and should be the pick. I'd be surprised if he's not the guy as of today. He's slow though, and defense might be a struggle. Is he able to play an avg. RF or 1B?

 

[DJTJ]

I like Bazanna a lot and would still consider him a solid pick.

But it seems like Condon is pulling away and should be the pick. I'd be surprised if he's not the guy as of today. He's slow though, and defense might be a struggle. Is he able to play an avg. RF or 1B?

But that’s the issue, right?

Hope he can play a significantly less valuable position?

 

[Ob1]

But that’s the issue, right?

Hope he can play a significantly less valuable position?

RF is more valuable than 2b though with what we have coming up

 

[BimboColesHair]

RF is more valuable than 2b though with what we have coming up

RF is never more valuable than 2B in baseball.

 

[petes999]

But that’s the issue, right?

Hope he can play a significantly less valuable position?

We have celebrated these types of guys before Hafner, Belle, Thome, Naylor ...

Yet, in reality, it is what he does starting at the end of May into June in SEC and NCAA tournaments that will matter - hopefully distinguish him and Bazzana once and for-all. And, I am sure, teams will have him switch to a wooden bat for a look see after the season (see if his college bat is juiced). Georgia is 4th and Oregon St is 15th in one RPI ranking - so we should see them for a while yet. Wouldn't even be surprised if a team asks for his bat to do their independent study if there is legit concern with modifications/cheating before giving him $9 million.

And, someone said he raked for Team USA after the disappointing Cape. He was .256 w 3 HR in 10 games w 3 BB on 10 Ks. So, he hit better but not raking. It ranked 4th on the team slightly behind Wetherholt. Kaelen Culpepper and Griff O'Ferrall lead the team in stats -- shows how limited data can skew things.

For the NBA, I thought they could have players match up in 3-on-3 type drills for pre-draft visits. Would love to see Condon and Bazzana take a day with a wooden bat against some AA/AAA pitchers on an off-day Monday.... (with coaches game planning them)

Player	Team	POS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GP	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	HBP	BB	K	SB	CS
Charlie Condon	Georgia	3B	.459	.570	1.114	1.684	48	242	185	72	85	17	1	34	71	10	43	35	3	1
Travis Bazzana	Oregon State	2B	.428	.591	1.006	1.597	47	232	166	69	71	10	4	26	59	5	61	25	11	5

 

[petes999]

RF is more valuable than 2b though with what we have coming up

Isn't what we have coming up ... almost comparable? If just looking at SS-2b and OF ......

MLB Pipe OF - DeLauter (1), Churio(5), Valera(7), Halpin(15), Rodriquez(16), Arias(17), Fox(18)
MLB Pip MIF - Brito(6), Martinez(9), Genao(11), Fransisca(12), Watson(14), Devers(19), Mooney(20)
(7 each with OF a bit more highly ranked)

FG OF - DeLauter(1), Churio(3), Arias(10), Valera(18), Halpin(19)
FG MIF - Rocchio(2), Genao(4), Brito(7), Martinez(8), Fransisca(9), Tena(15), Watson(16), Ramirez(17)
So a bit more MIF skewed (5 MIF to 8 OF) but Rocchio has graduated and Martinez and Watson are getting CF run. And, its not like a OF is being tried out for 2nd....

 

[sportscoach]

RF is more valuable than 2b though with what we have coming up

Honestly with 2B defensively in way more plays, its a way more important position. There is a reason why LF/RF and 1B normally have the power bats since they can get away with some lesser athletes playing there...

Cleveland also has been lucky in getting guys who have cannons for arms to play OF...

 

[CDAV45]

I like Bazanna a lot and would still consider him a solid pick.

But it seems like Condon is pulling away and should be the pick. I'd be surprised if he's not the guy as of today. He's slow though, and defense might be a struggle. Is he able to play an avg. RF or 1B?

He's slow? Do you have the numbers? I'd like to see his sprint speeds compared to Bazzanna's.

 

[BimboColesHair]

He's slow? Do you have the numbers? I'd like to see his sprint speeds compared to Bazzanna's.

He's an underrated athlete.

Not at Bazzana's levels, but not a plodder either.