Rodney Hood: Won't be missed

[kovanovich]

Hood's qualifying offer is $3.5 million. Suppose rather than offering him 3/30, the Cavs offer him $2/12. That mean he makes $6.0M this year instead of $3.5M, which benefits him. It also benefits the Cavs, because they can trade him to someone who gets to keep his Bird rights.

He'll be able to relax even less if he has to play under the QO.

I just don't think there's any way he accepts 2/12.

@Douglar comes around to the view that 3/30 might be reasonable. I tentatively suggested in another thread 3/24.

Given that he will be in his prime years, I don't have a particular problem signing him for 3 years totally guaranteed. Teams take on more risk when they guarantee multiyear money with a player in his 30s (such as JR Smith). Hood might prefer a 2 year deal though so he can reenter the free agent market at age 27.

As @Sir'Dom Pointer points out, current salaries of other roughly comparable wings is comparing apples to oranges in that this year is so much leaner for free agents, but it does provide rough guidelines for the trade value Hood will have on a comparable contract. Once he signs the contract, it doesn't matter whether it was signed in 2017 or 2018.

Bottom line though is you bring him back on a contract that at least some teams will view as desirable and worth trading for. If he takes the QO, it strikes me as a lost opportunity since he'll lose most of his value as an asset. That said, maybe there really is no market for him, and if that's the case, fine, let him sign for the QO.

That at least would give the team some cap flexibility and would allow them to safely pay David Nwaba (a player linked to them) or another player more than the minimum, using a part of their MLE. Signing Hood to a 3/30 contract puts them uncomfortably close to the luxury tax line and needlessly reduces their flexibility.

As far as Hood taking other players' minutes, I mean, this team as currently assembled has the weakest collection of wings in the league. There will still be plenty of minutes for Cedi, and it seems inevitable that Korver will be traded. I mean, unless Lue insists on playing JR 30 minutes per game. I'm not a fan of Hood at all, but he has demonstrated he can be a wing scorer on acceptable efficiency, and I think giving Sexton a decent offensive player to pass the ball to seems reasonable.

 

[SVC]

His advanced stats almost looked the same...which is scary.

Yep. I thought we were really getting something special with Hood, and a bunch of Utah people were saying this guy really isn’t any good. I thought it was sour grapes until I saw them post the advanced stats, and watched him play here. I swear every time I caught him on tv he lit it up, but clearly I was catching a small sample of his overall play. He strikes you as a guy who can play really well, but to this point in his career, has never done so consistently.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I just don't think there's any way he accepts 2/12.

Then he's leaving at least $2.5M on the table for this year. He'd have to make at least $8.5M in the next season to make up for it, and that's far from a sure thing. But if he doesn't accept it, then I'd let him play for the QO. If he truly balls out, which I think it unlikely, then we'll still have the opportunity to re-sign him.

I don't see Hood as a useful piece on a contending team. The only thing he has going for him is some scoring talent, but he's got a rather crappy attitude, generally doesn't play hard, and isn't a good defender. It's the attitude/ethic that really makes me doubt he'll ever come close to reaching his physical potential. He was known for having a questionable motor in college, particularly on the defensive end, and I question whether that is going to change at this point.

I see him as a useful player on a rebuilding team simply because he's a competent scorer to fill out the rotation. Becoming more than that...I just don't see it as being very likely. But, if you do see him developing into something more than just a useful guy on a rebuilding team, then I'd agree you probably should offer him more if you expect him to sign rather than play under the QO.

 

[BodegaBayCav]

I really think that Hood, if he believes in himself, would be foolish to sign anything under 3 at 10M, and if the Cavs are going to give him minutes, then it is foolish on their part to not sign him to a fair deal as he will put up decent offensive numbers and likely be offered 12 M/yr by some team in next years free agency.

If Hood and his agent thinks he can get 3 yrs. at 12 M next year after signing the QO this year, then that would pay him 40 M over the 4 year period.

That is why I think the 3 yr. at 10M offer is roughly the fair pay.

Personally, I like higher energy players than Hood and hope if the Cavs sign him to a multi year deal there will be a follow on trade during next season.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I think it's worth noting that Hood will be 26 once the season starts. 25 is not really accurate.

He has like 1-2 "prime years"...so what is our expectations here?

 

[Cavsfan1985]

I don’t get all the low offers for Hood. Had he stayed in Utah and finished averaging close to 16ppg, I bet he is looking at 14/15 a year maybe more. He is not a spot up shooter stay in the corner player. He needs to be moving and have plays run for him. I could see him putting up 18ppg next year as our starting sg. I think something in the 10/12 a year is a good deal for both sides.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I think it's worth noting that Hood will be 26 once the season starts. 25 is not really accurate.

He has like 1-2 "prime years"...so what is our expectations here?

Whoa, I think you are way off for "prime years." Is Steph Curry past his prime at 30? Kevin Lowry at 32? Obviously LeBron has gass left in the tank.

I think the start of a player's prime can depend position and style of play, but especially ability to avoid a major injury. Quick guards can start falling off at 30 if they are out boozing and partying, but even Allen Iverson might have put together his most complete season at age 32 with the Nuggets. Bigs tend to form their complete selves in age 26 - 33. Even in this era of small ball LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Horford were All Stars in their early 30s because they have been relatively healthy. There's few predictors for who in the back end of their career will have an unexpected anchilles injury, for example.

 

[TheISHT]

His advanced stats almost looked the same...which is scary.

Were he and Clarkson two of the worst players last season in the NBA in terms of overall impact?

 

[Cavatt]

Whoa, I think you are way off for "prime years." Is Steph Curry past his prime at 30? Kevin Lowry at 32? Obviously LeBron has gass left in the tank.

I think the start of a player's prime can depend position and style of play, but especially ability to avoid a major injury. Quick guards can start falling off at 30 if they are out boozing and partying, but even Allen Iverson might have put together his most complete season at age 32 with the Nuggets. Bigs tend to form their complete selves in age 26 - 33. Even in this era of small ball LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Horford were All Stars in their early 30s because they have been relatively healthy. There's few predictors for who in the back end of their career will have an unexpected anchilles injury, for example.

Statistically this next year has good odds of being Hoods best year. That means he isn't going to break through sometime in the future, he will have a decent year though.

This situation is very uncertain. The stat goes on the board hate him, and we literally saw like 5 good games from Hood. I wonder if flexibility won't be more valuable. If Love was going to be traded, I think I would be more open to 3/10

 

[ice cream man]

Hood is way better and more valuable than Clarkson. I can't believe we gave up a 1st for Clarkson/Nance. I'd be shocked if we found a taker for Clarkson.

 

[DirtyDan]

Playing at the highest level of competition is an indicator of player's ceiling to me. Just browsed through basketball reference and saw that Rodney underperformed for Utah in the playoffs too. His 3P% dropped from 37% to 26%, so did his FG% and FT% but not as substantially. Averaged 12 points per game in the 16-17 regular season then 8 in the playoffs. Note: This was on similar minutes as the regular season, basically went from 27 to 25 minutes, but came off the bench instead of starting.

Hood doesn't fit in the long term vision of this team until he can find a coping mechanism that helps his anxiety. He fits well as a short term, starting guard on a tanking team because he has the potential to overcome the mental hurdles and be an asset to the Cavs or a trade piece. A three year bet on a long, versatile wing at 10 million is reasonable to me because 3&D wings are always in demand.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Whoa, I think you are way off for "prime years." Is Steph Curry past his prime at 30? Kevin Lowry at 32? Obviously LeBron has gass left in the tank.

I think the start of a player's prime can depend position and style of play, but especially ability to avoid a major injury. Quick guards can start falling off at 30 if they are out boozing and partying, but even Allen Iverson might have put together his most complete season at age 32 with the Nuggets. Bigs tend to form their complete selves in age 26 - 33. Even in this era of small ball LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Horford were All Stars in their early 30s because they have been relatively healthy. There's few predictors for who in the back end of their career will have an unexpected anchilles injury, for example.

I guess you can switch prime with peak?

When talking about prime/peak, i'm basically looking at PER, OBPM and DBPM. Generally speaking, players usually peak at all 3 at around that time frame...surely there are exceptions, especially nowadays with all the supplements and training which allow players to prolong their careers.

Yes, Curry peaked at 27...he is still very good, but not nearly as good, and without all those PEDs we would have seen a major decline because of his problematic ankles.

Iverson wasn't as impactful in Denver... He had one good year in Denver. The reason his TS% and FG% was higher is because of the better spacing, rather than anything else. His defensive impact and other metrics such as PER show that he was past his prime.

Westbrook had peaked at 27-28...and he had a real down year in terms of advanced stats. Let's see if he is able to bounce back.

I will say that players that rely on athleticism have shorter prime years and their prime can be determined by how healthy they remain throughout their career, and vice versa, players that don't rely on athleticism usually have longer prime years.

It's flexible nowadays and there are freaks like Lebron that can prolong their primes to ages that we have never seen before.

But you have to see some kind of upward trend in ages leading to those prime years...Rodney Hood has basically plateaued and even regressed since his Sophomore year. Do you expect him to make a jump? if so, then how will it show? His defense sucks, and is currently a -2.1 DPBM(those things usually stay somewhat consistent throughout player's career because players that record low steals and rebounds usually suck at those areas forever) and his OBPM is barely career positive and was negative as a Cavalier.

You have someone in mind that made a real jump in his impact after 4 years in the league in which he plateaued and became a good starter/star? I think that in terms of impact and style of play he resembles a player like OJ Mayo...and he was better. Players that never really make any sort of improvement stay that way from my experience, especially players that are only scorers without any ball handling skills and other intangibles.

Players generally make some kind of jump at age 26, that's make or break year for a player like Hood.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

A three year bet on a long, versatile wing at 10 million is reasonable to me because 3&D wings are always in demand.

He's not a 3&D wing because he's a lousy defender. If he was good defensively - even average - I'd be fine with the 3/30.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I guess you can switch prime with peak?

When talking about prime/peak, i'm basically looking at PER, OBPM and DBPM. Generally speaking, players usually peak at all 3 at around that time frame...surely there are exceptions, especially nowadays with all the supplements and training which allow players to prolong their careers.

Yes, Curry peaked at 27...he is still very good, but not nearly as good, and without all those PEDs we would have seen a major decline because of his problematic ankles.

Iverson wasn't as impactful in Denver... He had one good year in Denver. The reason his TS% and FG% was higher is because of the better spacing, rather than anything else. His defensive impact and other metrics such as PER show that he was past his prime.

Westbrook had peaked at 27-28...and he had a real down year in terms of advanced stats. Let's see if he is able to bounce back.

I will say that players that rely on athleticism have shorter prime years and their prime can be determined by how healthy they remain throughout their career, and vice versa, players that don't rely on athleticism usually have longer prime years.

It's flexible nowadays and there are freaks like Lebron that can prolong their primes to ages that we have never seen before.

But you have to see some kind of upward trend in ages leading to those prime years...Rodney Hood has basically plateaued and even regressed since his Sophomore year. Do you expect him to make a jump? if so, then how will it show? His defense sucks, and is currently a -2.1 DPBM(those things usually stay somewhat consistent throughout player's career because players that record low steals and rebounds usually suck at those areas forever) and his OBPM is barely career positive and was negative as a Cavalier.

You have someone in mind that made a real jump in his impact after 4 years in the league in which he plateaued and became a good starter/star? I think that in terms of impact and style of play he resembles a player like OJ Mayo...and he was better. Players that never really make any sort of improvement stay that way from my experience, especially players that are only scorers without any ball handling skills and other intangibles.

Players generally make some kind of jump at age 26, that's make or break year for a player like Hood.

My issue with Hood isn't the he's going to decline shortly -- it's that I don't see any reasonable prospect for him to improve from what he's always been. He just seems to be one of these guys that plays at his own speed and kind of coasts. Even this past season, when you'd expect he'd have to wanted to ball out so as to maximize the offers he might get, his effort level was remarkably flat. Expecting that to change after he gets paid seems pretty counter-intuitive.

 

[Nathan S]

Statistically determined aging curve, for everyone's reference (thanks to Jeremias Engelmann):

Offense

Defense

All data per-possession, so multiply by 100 to convert to the familiar +/- scale of per-100 possessions (sorry the Y-axis labels tickmarks are weird, not my fault )