Round 3 - Pick 74 - Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

[kriegs]

Cedric Tillman NFL Draft Player Profile: Scouting Report, Stats for Tennessee WR

Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman Scouting Report and NFL Draft Outlook including Strengths, Weaknesses, Combine Results and Pro Player Comparison

www.the33rdteam.com

SCOUTING REPORT By Greg Cosell

Background:​

Tillman came out of famed Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas as a 3-star recruit and did not become a starter at Tennessee until his redshirt junior season in 2021: 64-1,081-16.9-12 TD. Tillman’s 2022 season was significantly shortened by an ankle injury that required surgery and, as a result, he only played six games.

Tillman lined up both to the field and the boundary in Tennessee’s offense almost exclusively on the outside. Tillman lined up predominantly outside the numbers, and he was featured on tunnel screens and hitch routes in addition to multiple in-breaking concepts. Tillman also ran vertical routes (post-and-go routes) in addition to stutter-goes where he got on top of corners.

Tillman showed physicality and competitiveness, defeating press coverage of Georgia corner Kelee Ringo. He also showed strong run-after-catch ability.

Positives:​

• Big, physically imposing receiver who lined up almost exclusively outside on the right in Tennessee’s offense.
• Showed excellent off-the-snap quickness on his release to defeat press coverage without any route disruption.
• Also showed physicality to defeat press coverage and through the early part of his route stem; played big.
• Explosive burst off the ball when he had free access breaking down the cushion with speed and stride length.
• Stride length and speed to get on top of and run by corners. Showed understanding how to stack corners.
• Played fast with his stride length and body control. Strong and powerful on intermediate and vertical routes.
• Balance and body control to stop with few steps off free access vertical release and press vertical release.
• Showed physical competitiveness to make tough catches in the middle of the field; caught through contact.
• Size and body control to make tough contested catches on the sidelines. Showed traits to highpoint the ball.
• Competitive and physical run-after-catch; fought for yards and was tough to bring down in the open field.
  

Negatives:​

• Not purely sudden or explosive in movement. Would not be considered elite. At times a little stiff in his lower half.
• Needs to become more refined and nuanced in breaks at the top of his route stem; did not always snap off breaks.
• Double caught some balls on routine catches; would like to see his hands consistently cleaner and stickier.
  
  

Bottom Line:​

Tillman has the look and feel of an NFL receiver because of his size/stride length/physicality/competitiveness profile, and his 2021 video showed a receiver who played big and fast and powerful. Tillman lined up almost exclusively outside the numbers, and he showed the traits to be a boundary X at the next level due to his high-level physicality, competitiveness, excellent body control, strong hands and outstanding hand-eye coordination to make tough contested catches and to catch through contact.

While Tillman was injured most of 2022 and therefore could not play to the same level, there is no question he has the physical and competitive traits to be a quality NFL receiver. My sense is he could emerge as a true No. 1 with the traits to win vs. man coverage as a boundary X. Overall, Tillman is a high-level prospect with all the needed traits to transition well to the next level. His size, physicality and competitiveness consistently stood out on video, and his toughness to catch through contact will allow him to effectively work the middle of the field.

Tillman played faster on video than his timed speed, and he showed the ability to get on top of SEC corners. So while he is not a true vertical dimension, he has the capability to win over the top. If you focus on Tillman’s 2021 video as the foundation of your evaluation and projection, you might see a little Mike Williams coming out of Clemson in the 2017 NFL draft with many of the measurables very similar, including size and 40 time.

 

[kriegs]

Cedric Tillman 2023 Prospect Profile | Reception Perception

Cedric Tillman 2023 Prospect Profile| Reception Perception | Matt Harmon

receptionperception.com

While he’s not often the highest-ranked receiver from Tennessee in this draft, Cedric Tillman has a lot of potential to be a quality pro player. His Reception Perception results from his dynamic 2021 season paint an optimistic picture for the hulking wideout.
Tillman lined up almost exclusively as an X-receiver on the line of scrimmage (86.7%) on the right outside of the field (90.7%) during his Reception Perception sample. He figures to play the same role in the NFL given his size and skill set, although I could see him being used inside in some situations to get him into favorable matchup looks.

Success Rate by Route​

Route Percentage​

Success Rate vs. Coverage​

Coverage Type	% of Routes	Success Rate	Percentile
Man	64.5%	68.5%	44th
Zone	35.5%	78.7%	47th
Press	33.1%	64.9%	36th
Double	1.7%	33.3%	-

Tillman isn’t one of the best separators in this class but he’s far from poor. His 68.5% success rate vs. man coverage and 79% success rate vs. zone coverage are right near the average for college prospects. His man and zone coverage results are actually almost identical to the much-hyped George Pickens from the 2022 NFL Draft class. However, Pickens’ 73.2% success rate vs. press (86th percentile) laps Tillman’s 64.9% mark. That is a pretty big deal and might mark a significant difference between the two players but RP at least begs the question of whether these two should be thought of closer than consensus might believe.

Tennesse’s basic offense had Tillman run a ton of deep routes and curls (39%). He can occasionally blow past unsuspecting corners on nine routes when they typecast his speed based on size but overall his success rate was still below average. He does earn easy separation on vertical routes like the post and corner, where he can snap away from defenders prior to outracing them as a long strider.

Tillman showed plenty of ability to win on curls (80% success rate) while running them at a high rate and his 78.9% success rate on slants was right within the prospect average. He’s able to get leverage early on quick in-breaking patterns and it’s difficult for smaller corners to regain it given his frame and deceptive quickness.

The best part of Tillman’s game is easily his ball skills. If he’s a near-average separator, he makes up for it in tight coverage. Tillman saw a contested target on 20.4% of his sampled looks and came down with 90.9% of them. He tracks the ball well and is comfortable making late adjustments before leaping in the air. His timing is impeccable when he needs to leave his feet. He has strong hands and is totally adept at extending his arms to grab passes well off his frame. You could argue he has the best set of hands overall in the draft class.

The 2023 NFL Draft class is littered with smaller receivers who project best as least 50% slot players. Tillman stands out in that crowd.
He is one of the classic, throwback X-receivers who fit a vertical NFL offense. With his contested catch ability, he should become a trusted target. How far he goes down that axis of the receiver will come down to his separation ability. If he hovers around an average or slightly below-average level, perhaps he can file somewhere into the DeVante Parker area of that axis. If he further evolves, we could see him inch closer to the Tee Higgins vector of the vertical X-receiver axis.

Actually, sticking along that X-receiver axis, my favorite comparable for Tillman is Broncos receiver, Courtland Sutton. A ton of Tillman’s metrics look similar to some of the main results from Sutton’s best season as a pro (2019) such as the Denver wideout’s 68.5% success rate vs. man, 76.8% success rate vs. zone and a handful of their top routes. Sutton has fallen off as a separator following his ACL injury but was on a strong trajectory from 2018 to 2019 and regardless of the dropoff, remains a viable starting X-receiver in the NFL. Tillman could end up following a similar plotline to the story of Sutton’s first two years.

 

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[red.]

 

[FiveThous]

 

[AZ_]

Giving Belichick vibes here with the sleeveless tee and gum chewing during the presser.

Gets us.

 

[CBBI]

I don’t expect a whole lot of Tillman this season coming out of that goofy offense, but clearly this was more of a long-term pick.

It’s incredibly likely that Cooper and DPJ are off the team before Tillman’s rookie contract ends, ya know?

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

"Apparently he’s a good blocker & doesn’t drop balls.

"Apparently? That sounds to me like he didn't even watch this guy play. He's just going off stats, and what others have said or written about him. Fans are perfectly capable of googling for themselves.

That's embarrassing for whomever that tweeter is.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

"Apparently he’s a good blocker & doesn’t drop balls.

"Apparently? That sounds to me like he didn't even watch this guy play. He's just going off stats, and what others have said or written about him. Fans are perfectly capable of googling for themselves.

That's embarrassing for whomever that tweeter is.

Clevta doesn't grind film. He's more of a data breakdown guy whose primary focus is sportsbook betting.

It's not as embarrassing as the people talking up his YAC.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Tillman was the #61 overall prospect in this draft ranked by PFF:

Tillman is the most physical receiver in the draft class. He's a safe bet as a possession receiver, as he dropped only five of his 104 career catchable targets.

 

[PIP]

Really warming up to this pick.

Definitely like that he’s a 2nd generation player and grew up around the game. The numbers in those consecutive games this past season were monsters.

This is giving me the “slept on” vibes and hopefully we found our productive mid round WR…

"Apparently he’s a good blocker & doesn’t drop balls.

"Apparently? That sounds to me like he didn't even watch this guy play. He's just going off stats, and what others have said or written about him. Fans are perfectly capable of googling for themselves.

That's embarrassing for whomever that tweeter is.

APPARENTLY !

 

[Smooth]

I know the initial thought was Tillman = DPJ replacement player but have to wonder if it's more Cooper's replacement player..

Browns have flexibility to get out of Cooper's deal next year and his deal expires in two..

Even though DPJ is a free agent next year, I have to feel it makes more sense to bite the bullet on an expensive WR for one year (next year), extend DPJ next offseason, and extend Moore the following one and go into 2025 season with DPJ, Tillman, Moore and Bell rather than letting DPJ go next year..

 

[red.]

I know the initial thought was Tillman = DPJ replacement player but have to wonder if it's more Cooper's replacement player..

Browns have flexibility to get out of Cooper's deal next year and his deal expires in two..

Even though DPJ is a free agent next year, I have to feel it makes more sense to bite the bullet on an expensive WR for one year (next year), extend DPJ next offseason, and extend Moore the following one and go into 2025 season with DPJ, Tillman, Moore and Bell rather than letting DPJ go next year..

This was my thoughts as well. I never saw Tillman as a DPJ replacement, but Cooper's. DPJ just turned 24 and Cooper is aging with a huge contract with no more guaranteed money left after this season, I believe.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

I think 2023 will be an evaluation year for Cooper with Watson. If they light it up together, how can you move on from that? I'm expecting big things from those two.

 

[adam81king]

I want Amari to retire a Brown, the same way I wanted Jarvis to retire one. Even as they decline, those are the kinda vets you want in the WR room to help teach the young guys. Not saying I want Amari at top dollar after this deal, but *everyone* has said they want to learn from Amari the last couple years (same with Jarvis before that). Don't throw that away...especially without a bona-fide WR1 to replace him.