Anybody with insider care to post Hollinger's article on Shaq?
Can Cavs cope without Shaq?
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Looking for a game-changer for the playoffs? Well, we're past the deadline for trades, so those are out, and we're past the point when a team can make a wholesale identity shift. But there's still one big destiny-shifter left on the table: injuries.
We saw a doozy Thursday night, when Boston's Glen Davis chopped down on Shaquille O'Neal's hand hard enough to tear ligaments in Shaq's thumb; amazingly, no foul was called on the play. O'Neal will need surgery and miss six to eight weeks, effectively ending his regular season and suddenly leaving the Cavs scrambling for frontcourt help.
First, let's look at the immediate ramifications.
Cleveland already traded Zydrunas Ilgauskas and can't re-sign him until March 22. Although all indications are that Big Z will return to Cleveland, the Cavs play 11 games before Ilgauskas' eligibility. It's a fairly easy stretch of schedule, but it's possible a few of those games -- at Milwaukee, at Chicago, home against Boston and San Antonio -- could hinge on Cleveland's sudden lack of size inside.
Anderson Varejao will start at center (likely costing him any chance he had of winning the NBA Sixth Man Award), and traditional 4s such as Leon Powe, Darnell Jackson and J.J. Hickson will be pressed into service as backup 5s. It's an imperfect arrangement that leaves the Cavs vulnerable to bullish centers; fortunately for Cleveland, the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum aren't on the schedule 'til Z comes back.
After that date, however, Cleveland might still have issues. Ilgauskas, 34, has declined noticeably this season, and although he makes a decent backup for Varejao, he's not suitable for extended duty in the middle.
But as we commonly see with injuries, the biggest problem is not the replacement but the replacement's replacement. Swapping out Shaq for Varejao isn't huge in itself, but it has several knock-on effects. For one thing, it takes one of the Cavs' most effective lineups off the table: Virtually every group that pairs Varejao and Ilgauskas has a superior plus/minus. When teaming those two with the three perimeter starters, Cleveland outscores opponents by a whopping 28 points per 100 possessions.
[+] EnlargeAnderson Varejao
David Liam Kyle/NBAE/Getty ImagesShaq salute? Anderson Varejao will do his best to fill in for No. 33.
That option won't be on the table for another three weeks, and even then the pairing will be rare if Ilgauskas is backing up Varejao. Additionally, it forces undersized players into the center rotation until Ilgauskas returns, and Shaq's absence eliminates a go-to option when LeBron James is off the floor.
The Cavs are running away with the East, standing six games ahead of Orlando with only 22 to play for each side, and thus are virtually assured of the top seed in the conference, Shaq or no Shaq. Home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with the Lakers might be a casualty of O'Neal's injury -- Cleveland has only a one-game lead, which effectively becomes two games when one factors in the tiebreaker advantage -- but as far as the regular season goes, that's the main concern.
Instead, the more crucial question is how Shaq's absence might affect Cleveland in the postseason.
On this front, the news is mostly good. O'Neal is likely to return by late April, during the first round. Cleveland doesn't figure to have too much trouble getting out of Round 1 without him, even if a nemesis, Charlotte, is the first-round opponent. (The Bobcats beat Cleveland three out of four times this season.)
By the time the second round starts, O'Neal should be back, but his return might come at what could be the trickiest time of the season. Cleveland will be working him back into the rotation while locked in a tough series against (most likely) Atlanta or Boston. Atlanta, in particular, could prove a difficult environment for working a big center back into playing shape because the Hawks' frontcourt players run the floor so well.
Here's the silver lining: By the time we get to mid-May and Cleveland has to face Orlando and/or the Lakers -- the two teams Shaq was brought in to match up against -- the Cavs should have a healthy Shaq. What's more, they should have a rested Shaq. The big fella had missed only five games this season before the hand injury and was on track to play his most games in a decade; the two-month break should allow all his other sore limbs to heal before the games that matter most.
Whether that silver-lining scenario becomes relevant depends on what kind of shape he'll come back in, and how quickly the Cavs can regain their on-court chemistry with Shaq. Newly acquired Antawn Jamison, in particular, will barely have played with Shaq when the conference finals begin, and all the other Cavs will have to adjust to shifting roles when he returns.
If Shaq returns as the force he was in January and February, that won't be an issue. O'Neal played some of his best basketball before the injury, shooting better than 60 percent from the field with nearly 14 points a game after Jan. 1. Unfortunately, he has a habit of letting himself go when he's not in-season. If that happens again and he returns as the slow, plodding Shaq of November and December, the Cavs could have a serious problem.
Thus, although this injury tremor isn't of the magnitude of Kevin Garnett's season-ending knee injury last spring, Shaq's absence could have a major impact on the postseason. Losing him at the same time Ilgauskas serves his 30-day furlough could end up costing Cleveland the home-court advantage in a Finals matchup with the Lakers, and it could sidetrack the increasingly comfortable on-court chemistry among the Cavs' offseason pickups.
But mostly, it could allow Shaq to tack on a few pounds and reduce his effectiveness for the games that matter most. If he can keep up his conditioning, the impact of his injury should be negligible. Based on his history, however, that outcome is very much in question.
