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I wrote about the Utah Jazz situation and how they could potentially impact the Cavs future.. But after seeing this season develop the way it did, with Tristan developing and the drafting of Dion, I now think the T'Wolves are the team to watch..
Why?
Well they possess two things the Cavs desperately need: a viable starting center and star big man..
And with the current state of the T'Wolves, one or the other is going to be let go... The T'Wolves cannot financially afford both Pekovic and Love and will be forced to give one up...
Some background: Love has been unhappy in T'Wolves for sometime, especially after they didn't offer him a max deal... And now a couple years into his new deal, a handful of years in Minnesota, there has been little progress... Factor in David Kahn's seemingly disdain for Love, and you have the storm for Love to potentially depart the T'Wolves as soon as they start letting it be known they will trade him.. They almost put him on the market last year and there probably would have more talk surrounding it if he didn't get hurt...
Now onto Pekovic.. He is scheduled to be a restricted free agent this summer... He is likely to garner quite a bit interest, as he's a 27-year old true center with PERs over 20 the past two seasons... He's likely to get a contract around $4 years, $40 million or something in that neighborhood... Bottom line is that he's going to get paid..
So here's the thing: the T'Wolves can't afford to pay Pekovic, keep Love and eventually max extend Rubio when the time comes... Not to mention they have Budinger as a RFA this year... Fact is, a small market team like the T'Wolves can't afford to tie up 35+ million, give or take some, in 3 players..
So that's where the Cavs come in... They are in position to either sign Pekovic or trade for Love and have the assets and need to do both... This off-season is going to decide what direction the T'Wolves come in..
Depending on how the draft goes, the Cavs could still have a need for a center... By offering Pekovic a large deal, the Cavs would force the T'Wolves hand... They would force them to either match and trade Love or don't match and keep Love... My money is on them keeping Pekovic and trading Love...
How this situation plays out and the timeline of it all is fuzzy but facts are they can't keep both and will have to choose one... And this is something to watch as it strongly pertains to the Cavs as they look for their missing frontcourt player..
Bill Simmons covered this today in his Part 2 of the NBA Trade Value article:
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Why?
Well they possess two things the Cavs desperately need: a viable starting center and star big man..
And with the current state of the T'Wolves, one or the other is going to be let go... The T'Wolves cannot financially afford both Pekovic and Love and will be forced to give one up...
Some background: Love has been unhappy in T'Wolves for sometime, especially after they didn't offer him a max deal... And now a couple years into his new deal, a handful of years in Minnesota, there has been little progress... Factor in David Kahn's seemingly disdain for Love, and you have the storm for Love to potentially depart the T'Wolves as soon as they start letting it be known they will trade him.. They almost put him on the market last year and there probably would have more talk surrounding it if he didn't get hurt...
Now onto Pekovic.. He is scheduled to be a restricted free agent this summer... He is likely to garner quite a bit interest, as he's a 27-year old true center with PERs over 20 the past two seasons... He's likely to get a contract around $4 years, $40 million or something in that neighborhood... Bottom line is that he's going to get paid..
So here's the thing: the T'Wolves can't afford to pay Pekovic, keep Love and eventually max extend Rubio when the time comes... Not to mention they have Budinger as a RFA this year... Fact is, a small market team like the T'Wolves can't afford to tie up 35+ million, give or take some, in 3 players..
So that's where the Cavs come in... They are in position to either sign Pekovic or trade for Love and have the assets and need to do both... This off-season is going to decide what direction the T'Wolves come in..
Depending on how the draft goes, the Cavs could still have a need for a center... By offering Pekovic a large deal, the Cavs would force the T'Wolves hand... They would force them to either match and trade Love or don't match and keep Love... My money is on them keeping Pekovic and trading Love...
How this situation plays out and the timeline of it all is fuzzy but facts are they can't keep both and will have to choose one... And this is something to watch as it strongly pertains to the Cavs as they look for their missing frontcourt player..
Bill Simmons covered this today in his Part 2 of the NBA Trade Value article:
32. Nikola Pekovic
We're on a run of Nikolas!4 Pekovic becomes a restricted free agent this summer, which means anyone looking for a highly skilled offensive center/enforcer/General Zod henchman can structure an offer specifically designed to screw over the pathetic Timberwolves. For instance, let's say Cleveland comes in and offers him $50 million for four years, thinking (rightfully so) that it's overpaying a little to run delightfully unstoppable high screens with Pek and Kyrie Irving for the next four years. Let's have Fake Hubie Brown break the rest of this down for us.
"If you're Minnesota, you have to match any Pekovic offer because — cover your ears, Jerry Reinsdorf — you cannot afford to lose an asset for nothing! Now, you already gave a max extension to Kevin Love, only you allowed Kevin to get out of that deal after three years, following the 2014-15 season. That was a big mistake. And you have Ricky Rubio eligible for a max contract this summer, or something close to it, and he is a magnificent basketball player as well. With those three guys, your team has tremendous upside potential. Unfortunately, you're a small-market team and you can't commit that much money to three players long term. You also have Love's potential departure hanging over your heads. So if you match Pekovic, you have to dangle Kevin Love around and get as much as you possibly can. But Love is a better player than Pekovic, which means you compounded a previously bad decision with another bad decision. And, guys, this is why you haven't won more than 35 games since Tiger Woods last won the Masters."
We're on a run of Nikolas!4 Pekovic becomes a restricted free agent this summer, which means anyone looking for a highly skilled offensive center/enforcer/General Zod henchman can structure an offer specifically designed to screw over the pathetic Timberwolves. For instance, let's say Cleveland comes in and offers him $50 million for four years, thinking (rightfully so) that it's overpaying a little to run delightfully unstoppable high screens with Pek and Kyrie Irving for the next four years. Let's have Fake Hubie Brown break the rest of this down for us.
"If you're Minnesota, you have to match any Pekovic offer because — cover your ears, Jerry Reinsdorf — you cannot afford to lose an asset for nothing! Now, you already gave a max extension to Kevin Love, only you allowed Kevin to get out of that deal after three years, following the 2014-15 season. That was a big mistake. And you have Ricky Rubio eligible for a max contract this summer, or something close to it, and he is a magnificent basketball player as well. With those three guys, your team has tremendous upside potential. Unfortunately, you're a small-market team and you can't commit that much money to three players long term. You also have Love's potential departure hanging over your heads. So if you match Pekovic, you have to dangle Kevin Love around and get as much as you possibly can. But Love is a better player than Pekovic, which means you compounded a previously bad decision with another bad decision. And, guys, this is why you haven't won more than 35 games since Tiger Woods last won the Masters."
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20. Kevin Love
Tough love for Love! He already lost the 2013 Mokeski to David Lee; now he's bungee-jumping 16 picks from last year's lofty no. 4 spot to this year's semi-insulting no. 20 position, which normally wouldn't happen to a 24-year-old franchise star unless he was arrested with two underage girls and three and a half pounds of molly. Just know that he didn't drop 16 spots because of that twice-broken hand. If we're measuring players by trade value, we're really measuring them by the probability that they'd ever be traded. And Kevin Love WILL be traded. It's inevitable. It might happen this summer, it might happen during next season, but it's going to happen.
And here's why: Before the 2011-12 season started, Minnesota could have locked Love up to a five-year max extension that he wanted to sign. Incredibly, the T-Wolves decided it would be dumb to lock up a 23-year-old franchise guy for as long as humanly possible; they wanted to save that "max" extension slot for Ricky Rubio. Love signed a lucrative four-year extension with a player option for Year 4 (after 2014-15) that may as well be called "Kevin Love's Get Out of Jail Free Card." He's been bitter ever since. You would be too.
What should you do if you're Minnesota? If you're smart, you'd build around Rubio (about to get an extension), Pekovic (about to get paid) and whatever you can get for Kevin Love. The blueprint: In February 2011, the Jazz shrewdly dealt Deron Williams 17 months before he could bolt Utah for a high lottery pick (Derrick Favors) and a future lottery pick (that became no. 3 overall: Enes Kanter), maximizing any and all leverage they had. I don't see how the T-Wolves make it through this summer without doing the same. The likeliest suitor? Chicago. The Bulls have big contracts to make the trade work (Luol Deng on the enticing side, Carlos Boozer on the less enticing side); they're loaded with assets like Jimmy Butler (no. 49 on this year's list), the rights to Mirotic (a high lottery pick if he entered this year's draft), and the rights to Charlotte's future no. 1 pick (top-10 protected in 2014, top-eight protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016); and they're a big-market contender with a superstar in house (so they could keep Love for the long haul).
Let's say Chicago calls Minnesota in June and offers them Boozer's contract with Butler, Mirotic AND the Charlotte pick. How could the T-Wolves turn that down? And if you're the Bulls, how would you turn down the chance to (a) dump Boozer's deal, and (b) upend a potential Miami dynasty with a nucleus of Rose, Noah, Love, Deng, Taj Gibson and Tom Thibodeau these next few years? You know, unless your owner was too cheap to make a real run at the Heat? (Cut to every Chicago fan grimacing.) Anyway, I'm dropping Love to 20 only because that Bulls trade made too much damned sense. It just did.
Tough love for Love! He already lost the 2013 Mokeski to David Lee; now he's bungee-jumping 16 picks from last year's lofty no. 4 spot to this year's semi-insulting no. 20 position, which normally wouldn't happen to a 24-year-old franchise star unless he was arrested with two underage girls and three and a half pounds of molly. Just know that he didn't drop 16 spots because of that twice-broken hand. If we're measuring players by trade value, we're really measuring them by the probability that they'd ever be traded. And Kevin Love WILL be traded. It's inevitable. It might happen this summer, it might happen during next season, but it's going to happen.
And here's why: Before the 2011-12 season started, Minnesota could have locked Love up to a five-year max extension that he wanted to sign. Incredibly, the T-Wolves decided it would be dumb to lock up a 23-year-old franchise guy for as long as humanly possible; they wanted to save that "max" extension slot for Ricky Rubio. Love signed a lucrative four-year extension with a player option for Year 4 (after 2014-15) that may as well be called "Kevin Love's Get Out of Jail Free Card." He's been bitter ever since. You would be too.
What should you do if you're Minnesota? If you're smart, you'd build around Rubio (about to get an extension), Pekovic (about to get paid) and whatever you can get for Kevin Love. The blueprint: In February 2011, the Jazz shrewdly dealt Deron Williams 17 months before he could bolt Utah for a high lottery pick (Derrick Favors) and a future lottery pick (that became no. 3 overall: Enes Kanter), maximizing any and all leverage they had. I don't see how the T-Wolves make it through this summer without doing the same. The likeliest suitor? Chicago. The Bulls have big contracts to make the trade work (Luol Deng on the enticing side, Carlos Boozer on the less enticing side); they're loaded with assets like Jimmy Butler (no. 49 on this year's list), the rights to Mirotic (a high lottery pick if he entered this year's draft), and the rights to Charlotte's future no. 1 pick (top-10 protected in 2014, top-eight protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016); and they're a big-market contender with a superstar in house (so they could keep Love for the long haul).
Let's say Chicago calls Minnesota in June and offers them Boozer's contract with Butler, Mirotic AND the Charlotte pick. How could the T-Wolves turn that down? And if you're the Bulls, how would you turn down the chance to (a) dump Boozer's deal, and (b) upend a potential Miami dynasty with a nucleus of Rose, Noah, Love, Deng, Taj Gibson and Tom Thibodeau these next few years? You know, unless your owner was too cheap to make a real run at the Heat? (Cut to every Chicago fan grimacing.) Anyway, I'm dropping Love to 20 only because that Bulls trade made too much damned sense. It just did.
