Spurs thread

[Pioneer10]

it is impossible to dislike the spurs. they execute so well in every aspect and their organization is so, so strong from top to bottom. they've been the best franchise in pro sports since holt initially bought them back in '93.

if a team other than the cavs wins the title i really hope it is san antonio.

Of course facilitated by the luckiest injury maybe in the history of sports?

 

[Adam]

Of course facilitated by the luckiest injury maybe in the history of sports?

Iirc correctly pop was the originator of the tank. Once they knew Robinson was done for the year everything they did was aimed at the lottery and future flexibility. Didn't they get Dominique back from Greece to play a year? Long time ago now

 

[ajz20]

The huge question is what level Tony Parker will be playing at in late May and June. They don't need Duncan or Ginobli to play great due to LMA and
kl be being in thier prime. However Tony Parker has to play at a very high level for them to win it all. We will see what he looks like 4 months from now.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

It's entirely in the matchup. We matchup so much better against the Spurs, it's ridiculous.

I agree with @jking948 that the Spurs are definitely the better team; best team in the league by many respects.

But, the only thing I add to that, which changes my opinion from earlier this season, is that we simply matchup so well against the Spurs that I'd prefer to play them over 7 games.

Well gour, I think you will get your wish because I can't think of a team that matches up better with the Warriors than the Spurs. I think their defense will suffocate the Warriors, and frustrate them like we did in the finals. The difference being we played great defense, but our 2nd and 3rd scoring options were hurt. The Spurs will play phenomenal defense with a great offense if there are no injuries. I really can't see that series needing 7 games...

 

[Jstock12]

We LET the Spurs beat us. They are SO overrated.

I'm not sure if you're being ironic. But for what it's worth, I think Spurs are quite underrated. Really underrated as far as teams with a 36-6 record go. Most of media's attention is on the Warriors. Spurs may have been the greatest sports franchise for the last 20 years, but they're being really overlooked this year. If the Warriors hadn't started losing, Spurs would still be under the radar, for the most part, despite having arguably the best statistical season in the all of NBA.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

I'm not sure if you're being ironic. But for what it's worth, I think Spurs are quite underrated. Really underrated as far as teams with a 36-6 record go. Most of media's attention is on the Warriors. Spurs may have been the greatest sports franchise for the last 20 years, but they're being really overlooked this year. If the Warriors hadn't started losing, Spurs would still be under the radar, for the most part, despite having arguably the best statistical season in the all of NBA.

I seriously think Blatt and the refs made them look good. We and the refs MADE David West look like he's All-NBA. Blatt left Kyrie on Parker WAY too long. We bricked a ton of open shots. SHOOTERS missed shots. We didn't get beat by Leonard or Aldridge. We got beat by a bunch of OLD guys.

If we start Delly or Shump at the 1, Kyrie at the 2, and TT at the 5, and JR and Love hit more than just a few open looks, we win easy. I mean - sure: the bench has been a total disappointment, and we have to figure it out, but a bench of Ginobili, Patty Mills, West, and Diaw is good, but not invincible. Like I said: the Spurs have 3 rotation guys under 30. They've had a lot of luck with injuries.

 

[Jordan]

Spurs' bench could make playoffs in the West - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-spurs-bench-could-probably-make-the-playoffs-on-its-own/

The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors are an all-time great team — you know this, everyone knows this. But as impressive as they are, the Dubs have been outplayed by a couple of NBA units so far this season: the San Antonio Spurs’ starters — and the San Antonio Spurs’ bench.

At least, that’s the conclusion you reach if you average together the Box Plus/Minus (BPM) ratings for everybody outside the team’s five most frequent starters1 — in essence, projecting what would happen if the team’s bench played the entire game. For most teams, the idea of stretching their bench’s output over 48 minutes would be revolting. Surely, the Thunder want no part of Dion Waiters and Kyle Singler replacing Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. But in this, as in many things, the Spurs are unique.

Every other team’s reserves rate as below-average relative to the entire league. The Warriors’ bench, for instance, ranks third with an aggregate BPM of -1.6. But the Spurs’ non-starters have an eye-popping cumulative BPM of +11.5. If we convert that number into its Elo-rating equivalent,2 the Spurs’ bench would come in at 1760 — enough talent to net between 64 and 65 wins over an 82-game season.

In other words, if the Spurs’ bench were to break off and form its own team, it would be either the second-best team in the NBA — trailing only the Spurs’ starters in terms of per-possession production this season — or the third-best, if you take a page from our Elo rating system’s book and give Golden State credit for its longer track record of greatness. Either way, the Spurs have a ridiculous advantage over the rest of the league.

Here’s a look at all of the league’s benches according to this method:

Of course, practically speaking, San Antonio devotes only 45 percent of its total minutes to reserves (just a shade over the league average of 44 percent). So if its bench were to secede and form a new squad, it would either need to increase its players’ minutes per game or find other players to fill the remaining 55 percent of available playing time.

But this new team would still be pretty formidable if we assume the Spurs’ current bench players could slide into starters’ minutes (55 percent of the new team’s total) at their existing level of production — and BPM is adjustedfor a player’s minutes per game, so the increased difficulty of facing more opposing starters is already accounted for (to some degree) in each player’s numbers — while filling their bench with typical NBA reserves (averaging to a -1.5 BPM per player). The resulting squad would have a 1585 Elo, which would put them in a de facto dead heat with Toronto for sixth place in the league. As a real-world counterfactual, some of the details don’t work out exactly right, like Manu Ginóbili’s famously limited minutes. But as a broad abstraction of just how much of a whooping Manu, Boris Diaw, David West and the rest of the Spurs’ bench have been putting on the league, it does the job.

And that’s if San Antonio’s bench had to manage life on its own. When paired with the Spurs’ starters, they make for an unstoppable combination that might be the best in basketball.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Spurs' bench could make playoffs in the West - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-spurs-bench-could-probably-make-the-playoffs-on-its-own/

Props to @David. He's been pimping the Spurs bench in multiple threads

but making the playoffs with the second team? Wew doggy that's some scary stuff

 

[PizzaSteve]

We'll see later in the season where the numbers end up, as this is not yet properly normalized for percentage of home games, difficulty of schedule, etc. I think GS injuries disrupted rotations during a period Spurs were pretty set. That impacts +\-, as does whether you play deep bench players with 30pt leads. You need to look at actual second units, not entire bench. GS has played a lot of JT and Speights very late in games, knowing they were struggling. Their real bench is Iggy, Barbosa, Livingstone, Rush, Ezili. Run the numbers for those 5 guys and you get a better view of GS true bench. Work to give minutes at heavy garbage time in different combos might improve the team, but hurt this stat as third string gets better with minutes (e.g. Rush, Clark gaining resurgence for GS, JT, MacAdoo, +Speights playing to rest second unit for games in the bag, basically). I've seen a lot of 30 point blowouts become 15 pt wins in the 4th as deep bench chucked up shots at 23 sec in timer, clearly under orders to run the clock, not play the usual fast pace, etc.

Spurs getting plenty of love, but to say their second unit is better that the current champions first unit, with 4 losses through mid season is an absurd misuse of stats.

 

[K1rieIrving>AllOtherPG's]

Props to @David. He's been pimping the Spurs bench in multiple threads

but making the playoffs with the second team? Wew doggy that's some scary stuff

Pop is like Belichick, he can take undrafted or unknown players and make them great within his system, greatest coach of all time imo. Spurs could definitely make the playoffs with their second unit with pop coaching them.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I think GS injuries

 

[Jstock12]

Spurs getting plenty of love, but to say their second unit is better that the current champions first unit, with 4 losses through mid season is an absurd misuse of stats.

I absolutely agree that Spurs' bench is not better than Warriors starting 5. It's also obvious that Spurs' bench is better than Warriors'. That is if you look at it objectively, of course.

 

[PizzaSteve]

I absolutely agree that Spurs' bench is not better than Warriors starting 5. It's also obvious that Spurs' bench is better than Warriors'. That is if you look at it objectively, of course.

I agree with you. Spurs bench is the current 'alpha bench'.

Cavs bench may also be underrated, since they are not performing at their peak yet. If used well, Cleveland's bench could be a decent, competitive team.

My point was that bench stats are very context dependent. Everyone's bench looked good against early season sixers and Lakers, and piled up big +/-, so you need to look at actual game situations and match ups, not just stats. Benches usually face opposing benches.

Not sure why GS hatred is considered a requirement to be a Cavs fan site poster. Seems silly of me that hatred of a rival vs respect is necessary. I enjoy sports and admire greatness. The players all shook hands and hugged each other after the Christmas game and play together on team USA. Why be a hater?

But Cav fans gonna Cav fan.

 

[Simon]

Tim Duncan (right knee soreness) is out tomorrow night for Spurs-Warriors game.

 

[Jordan]

Tim Duncan (right knee soreness) is out tomorrow night for Spurs-Warriors game.

I fucking love Pop.