Starting rotation discussion

[33Y0]

I wanted to start a thread on our starting rotation for a few different reasons:

1. It’s often talked about as a strength of our team and heading into the season, we have a lot of young arms (not a bad thing).
2. I thought it would be an interesting discussion about how we view the different parts of our rotation…
3. Which also leads me to, what are analytics predicting for our rotation?

Here’s ZIPS projections for our rotation this season:

Player	WAR	W	L	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	FIP
Triston McKenzie	3.1	10	8	155.0	3.54	8.88	2.32	.283	3.81
Shane Bieber	3.0	8	6	148.1	3.52	9.16	2.25	.296	3.54
Tanner Bibee	2.3	8	8	148.2	3.81	8.47	2.91	.288	4.01
Logan Allen	1.7	7	7	130.2	4.06	8.40	3.17	.291	4.23
Gavin Williams	1.4	6	7	131.0	4.12	8.86	3.64	.284	4.35
Daniel Espino	1.2	6	6	90.1	4.09	10.37	4.49	.293	4.21
Joey Cantillo	0.8	5	5	104.1	4.40	8.97	4.49	.291	4.65
Hunter Stanley	0.6	6	7	104.0	4.67	6.14	3.55	.294	4.85
Hunter Gaddis	0.8	6	8	104.0	4.67	7.53	3.38	.292	4.84

Analytics seem to think Bibee and Williams take some major regression which I’m not buying. I’m a lot more bullish on how they’ll perform this season. A healthy Triston will help this rotation in a big way.

In terms of sheer talent, I’d rank our rotation:
1. Espino
2. Bibee
3. Williams
4. McKenzie
5. Bieber
6. Allen
7. Cantillo

In terms of realistic expectations this season and where their WAR might rank this season, granted provided no significant injuries…
1. Bibee
2. McKenzie
3. Bieber
4. Williams
5. Allen

 

[Otsego Mar]

No mention of Ben Lively or Cookie I see....

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Has there been any talk of the innings limits on Williams and Bibee, if any?

 

[smalls1129]

Has there been any talk of the innings limits on Williams and Bibee, if any?

We were told they were nowhere near any predetermined limits last year so I would think they're set to fly this year, health withstanding.

 

[Gson]

Has there been any talk of the innings limits on Williams and Bibee, if any?

the general guidelines follow onto last year's results/IP's.. add another 20 % as a target.. and don't get too hung up on going a little over..

 

[Mott the Hoople]

IMO - The SP this season will boil down to 1 guy - Triston McKenzie.

Last season, when injuries hit the SP, it put more pressure on the bullpen, which made the lack of offense so noticable. Last season, we had some very young arms step up, and did pretty well. This season we don't have more young guys ready. Maybe Cantillo, but I think he could use more development. So, if needed, we could see Cookie, Lively, or Gaddis.

I think Bieber will do pretty well. Maybe not CYA quality, but FOR good. Good enough to be very valuable at the trade deadline. But here's the thing - Last year's Guards stunk. But when they traded Civale when they were still "in the race" - it created a mini-locker room revolt. If the G's are solidly in contention at the 2024 trade deadline - and they trade Bieber then - could you imagine the PR nightmare both inside and outside the organization?

The 3 young SP's I think will continue to develop well. They will have bumps in the road, but I think we will all be happy with the progress. I think Williams might take a big leap.

That brings me to McKenzie. He opted for rehab on his arm instead of surgery. He says he feels great now. If he makes it back to where he was - 100%, then the G's will be contenders. No question about it. If not, then it puts stress on the spot starters, that puts stress on the bullpen, that puts stress on the questionable offense.

So I just hope everybody stays healthy.

 

[Gson]

IMO - The SP this season will boil down to 1 guy - Triston McKenzie.

Last season, when injuries hit the SP, it put more pressure on the bullpen, which made the lack of offense so noticable. Last season, we had some very young arms step up, and did pretty well. This season we don't have more young guys ready. Maybe Cantillo, but I think he could use more development. So, if needed, we could see Cookie, Lively, or Gaddis.

I think Bieber will do pretty well. Maybe not CYA quality, but FOR good. Good enough to be very valuable at the trade deadline. But here's the thing - Last year's Guards stunk. But when they traded Civale when they were still "in the race" - it created a mini-locker room revolt. If the G's are solidly in contention at the 2024 trade deadline - and they trade Bieber then - could you imagine the PR nightmare both inside and outside the organization?

The 3 young SP's I think will continue to develop well. They will have bumps in the road, but I think we will all be happy with the progress. I think Williams might take a big leap.

That brings me to McKenzie. He opted for rehab on his arm instead of surgery. He says he feels great now. If he makes it back to where he was - 100%, then the G's will be contenders. No question about it. If not, then it puts stress on the spot starters, that puts stress on the bullpen, that puts stress on the questionable offense.

So I just hope everybody stays healthy.

A starting staff is fragile. Take away any one part and the void left makes the metaphor: you're only as strong as your weakest link.. real.. Fortunately.. the kids are no longer just kids.. They're young.. but they do have nearly a full season of experience to rely on.. They're healthy, tough, talented & resilient.. This group has the making of one of the best starting staffs in all of baseball.. or at lease the elements needed to achieve that end are in place..

McStyx is going to ALWAYS be at least a little fragile. Six foot five, one hundred sixty five pound guys are.. Getting more "good" weight on him doesn't appear to be in the cards at present... For the Guardians, McStyx could be and should be considered the weakest link until he isn't, and, all that that implies... Opting for rehabilitation is a personal decision & not made for the benefit of the fans.. The effect of the surgery, regardless of the work ethic in rehabilitation post surgery could be a career ender. Any reason for or against surgery follows the time honored and ALWAYS true axiom: Not cutting is always better than cutting..

You're right about Cookie, Lively and Gaddis.. Those three along with Curry &, to a lesser degree imho, Cantillo can be looked at as the depth starters every club needs. There are others coming.. but...

Losing both Karinchak and Stephan is a very troubling happenstance... Others will need to step up.. and right away.. Herrin, Smith and newcomer to this forum Franco Aleman could become both relevant and important..

We'll see..

 

[CDAV45]

I wanted to start a thread on our starting rotation for a few different reasons:

1. It’s often talked about as a strength of our team and heading into the season, we have a lot of young arms (not a bad thing).
2. I thought it would be an interesting discussion about how we view the different parts of our rotation…
3. Which also leads me to, what are analytics predicting for our rotation?

Here’s ZIPS projections for our rotation this season:

Player	WAR	W	L	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	FIP
Triston McKenzie	3.1	10	8	155.0	3.54	8.88	2.32	.283	3.81
Shane Bieber	3.0	8	6	148.1	3.52	9.16	2.25	.296	3.54
Tanner Bibee	2.3	8	8	148.2	3.81	8.47	2.91	.288	4.01
Logan Allen	1.7	7	7	130.2	4.06	8.40	3.17	.291	4.23
Gavin Williams	1.4	6	7	131.0	4.12	8.86	3.64	.284	4.35
Daniel Espino	1.2	6	6	90.1	4.09	10.37	4.49	.293	4.21
Joey Cantillo	0.8	5	5	104.1	4.40	8.97	4.49	.291	4.65
Hunter Stanley	0.6	6	7	104.0	4.67	6.14	3.55	.294	4.85
Hunter Gaddis	0.8	6	8	104.0	4.67	7.53	3.38	.292	4.84

Analytics seem to think Bibee and Williams take some major regression which I’m not buying. I’m a lot more bullish on how they’ll perform this season. A healthy Triston will help this rotation in a big way.

In terms of sheer talent, I’d rank our rotation:
1. Espino
2. Bibee
3. Williams
4. McKenzie
5. Bieber
6. Allen
7. Cantillo

In terms of realistic expectations this season and where their WAR might rank this season, granted provided no significant injuries…
1. Bibee
2. McKenzie
3. Bieber
4. Williams
5. Allen

Yeah, I'm not buying those WAR predictions at all. Your WAR list is much better IMO. Although, I'd move Williams up to #2.

My sheer talent list would be:
1. Espino
2. Williams
3. Bibee
4. McKenzie
5. Cantillo
6. Bieber
7. Allen

 

[33Y0]

No mention of Ben Lively or Cookie I see....

Ben Lively: 5-6, 0.6 WAR, 4.61 ERA, 91.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 4.74 FIP
Cookie: 4-7, 0.6 WAR, 5.10 ERA, 83.0 IP, 7.92 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .319 BABIP, 4.80 FIP

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think our middle relievers will be important this year. They will probably limit the pitch counts of Bieber and McKenzie, at least for the first couple of months, to try and keep them healthy as long as possible. They may just have them go five innings for a while.

We're going to need guys like Curry and Gaddis to come in and pitch two innings to get to the back end.

 

[sportscoach]

Ben Lively: 5-6, 0.6 WAR, 4.61 ERA, 91.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 4.74 FIP
Cookie: 4-7, 0.6 WAR, 5.10 ERA, 83.0 IP, 7.92 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .319 BABIP, 4.80 FIP

Lively is a depth starter... He will get some random MLB starts... I think Cookie makes this team from the bullpen at the very least...

 

[petes999]

Lively is a depth starter... He will get some random MLB starts... I think Cookie makes this team from the bullpen at the very least...

The issue with that is who do you drop from the 40 for a 1-year last hurrah vet? Yes, you can do another Jones/Benson trade. But, is it worth it?

Neither Karinchak nor Stephan are 60-day type injuries. Espino can't go on MLB 60-day if you want a draft pick for ROY potential or manipulate service time. Rocchio is struggling (so far) and Arias is (3-9 w 3ks - so the leader). But, you got to keep Tena and Martinez playing better (but later in games) so do you trade one? I am holding onto Angel for CF duty as that is the weakest link right now.

DDLS may be returned. But, who else is on the chopping block now to get Cookie and Manzardo at some point on the 40? Noel? Lively who our insider said they saw potential there (see if it comes out in ST).

 

[BimboColesHair]

The issue with that is who do you drop from the 40 for a 1-year last hurrah vet? Yes, you can do another Jones/Benson trade. But, is it worth it?

Neither Karinchak nor Stephan are 60-day type injuries. Espino can't go on MLB 60-day if you want a draft pick for ROY potential or manipulate service time. Rocchio is struggling (so far) and Arias is (3-9 w 3ks - so the leader). But, you got to keep Tena and Martinez playing better (but later in games) so do you trade one? I am holding onto Angel for CF duty as that is the weakest link right now.

DDLS may be returned. But, who else is on the chopping block now to get Cookie and Manzardo at some point on the 40? Noel? Lively who our insider said they saw potential there (see if it comes out in ST).

This is a lot of thought for what would almost assuredly be a very simple move.

 

[petes999]

This is a lot of thought for what would almost assuredly be a very simple move.

We always do ... Just like adding Jason Bilous to the 40 last year on the same day we traded Benson to Reds .... if there is a will there is a way. I just wouldn't do it for a 36-year old pitcher for nostalgia reasons. If he is clearly one of best 13 pitchers, they will find a way again.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Just my opinions but,,,,

• Right now, DDLS looks MILES away from being MLB ready. I hope they can make a trade for him because rare power is a rare skill. He might not be MLB ready till the 2026 season.
• Cookie looks OK to me. I think he will earn a roster spot.
• In the Arias / Rocchio battle I think Arias has the lead. If Rocchio doesn't win the starting spot I would put him in Columbus again.
• Fry looking pretty good, but the roster is cramped.
• Florial is MIA. Only 6 AB's.