The 2013 NBA Finals Thread (Spurs vs Heat)

[RaptorFan]

the heat clutched into a championship gear tonight and my doubt in the spurs just doubled. also didnt the heat win in San antonio without the big three?

 

[Mad Hatter]

SA has caught alot of lucky breaks along the way so far.

I know people on the board love them, but they have faced a depleted Lakers squad, a GS squad riddled with injuries, and a Memphis squad that has no offensive capability and never would have been there anyway if Westbrook doesn't get hurt.

I think Lebron is going to be able to do any and everything he wants this series, and I just don't see SA beating them 4 times. The Heat are too athletic for them, even with a bum Bosh and Wade's gimpy knee.

I picked the Heat in 6 because I just don't see them losing this finals series after pulling their collective heads out vs. Indiana at the end.

The SPURS have caught lucky breaks?

The east is as weak as it's been since Byron Scott's Nets were making the finals. Miami has played a 38-44 Bucks team that had no business being in the playoffs, a Bulls team with no Rose and other injuries to deal with, and a Pacers team that, while respectable, would have only managed the 6th seed at best out west (if they even made the playoffs at all with the tougher schedule there). The Spurs are on a completely different level compared to those teams.

Yes, the Spurs didn't face any powerhouses, but then again they rolled through those teams 12-2 with two sweeps. The Cheat, meanwhile, lost 4 times to much weaker foes and went to a game 7.

Miami, for the second year in a row, is also lucky to have escaped the ECF at all. Boston could have finished them off in a mere 5 games had they not blown a 15 point lead in game two of that series, and Indiana could have done it in 6 if they didn't blow the last play of game one.

 

[Rich]

Yea, between the two, Miami has had a much easier path as far as competition is concerned. Memphis is better than anyone Miami played. Didn't beat a team with 50 or more wins.

 

[Birdy89]

The Spurs have caught lucky breaks?

The east is as weak as it's been since Byron Scott's Nets were making the finals. Miami has played a 38-44 Bucks team that had no business being in the playoffs, a Bulls team with no Rose and other injuries to deal with, and a Pacers team that, while respectable, would have only managed the 6th seed at best out west (if they even made the playoffs at all with the tougher schedule there). The Spurs are on a completely different level compared to those teams.

Yes, the Spurs didn't face any powerhouses, but then again they rolled through those teams 12-2 with two sweeps. The Cheat, meanwhile, lost 4 times to much weaker foes and went to a game 7.

Miami, for the second year in a row, is also lucky to have escaped the ECF at all. Boston could have finished them off in a mere 5 games had they not blown a 15 point lead in game two of that series, and Indiana could have done it in 6 if they didn't blow the last play of game one.

The Pacers were a far bigger problem match-up wise for the Heat because of Paul George, who outside of game 7 played at a very high level this series.

The Spurs have no Paul George, who at least physically is one of the only guys in the NBA who can at least dream of guarding Lebron effectively.

He will have no resistance when playing the Spurs, and is going to have a Monster series.

The Heat have a much better shot at dealing with Tony Parker than the Spurs do of dealing with Lebron.

 

[Birdy89]

Yea, between the two, Miami has had a much easier path as far as competition is concerned. Memphis is better than anyone Miami played. Didn't beat a team with 50 or more wins.

Memphis was a good match-up for SA, because they aren't an athletic team.

I expect the Miami series to look alot like last years WCF with the Thunder/Spurs.

 

[Rich]

The Pacers were a far bigger problem match-up wise for the Heat because of Paul George, who outside of game 7 played at a very high level this series.

The Spurs have no Paul George, who at least physically is one of the only guys in the NBA who can at least dream of guarding Lebron effectively.

He will have no resistance when playing the Spurs, and is going to have a Monster series.

The Heat have a much better shot at dealing with Tony Parker than the Spurs do of dealing with Lebron.

That pretty much has nothing to do with what he posted. You said the Spurs got lucky by playing who they got to play. Meanwhile, Miami's path was undeniably weaker. Nothing to do with Parker and LeBron and who can match who.

Between the two teams, the Spurs had to beat better teams, and did so easier.

Now, that doesn't really mean anything, but then again you were the one who brought it up.

Kawhi Leonard, btw, is a decent defender. Paul George he is not, but he's one of the better options out there to defend LeBron.

The Spurs have the forumla. Great, not good, PG. Great, not good, back to the basket post player. And someone who you can actually put on LeBron and hope he does reasonably well. But no one is stopping LeBron. He blew up Indiana and still it went to 7. Frankly, if I were S.A., I'd put Kawhi on Wade and let LeBron go nuts again. Take Wade out of it and I can't see how Miami wins.

 

[billmac91]

I actually think Kawhi Leonard is a better defensive player than Paul George. George and Leonard have similar builds, but Leonard almost exclusively prides himself on defense. Leonard averages 11 ppg, but his main focus is taking away the opponents best offensive player at the 2G or SF position. Paul George needed to expend a ton of energy offensively to keep Indiana in games, but Kawhi will be focused on making things as difficult as possible for LeBron on defense, while he hangs out in corners trying to knock down 3's on offense. Paul George is also really poor when it comes to positioning his body. I know a lot of people keep saying Paul George is a great defender because of his size and athleticism, but he puts himself in a ton of poor spots, and really takes a lot of unneccassary risks. Kawhi Leonard is one of the headier guys in the league. I think you're selling Leonard really short if you think Paul George is head and shoulders a better defender.

I think the series will largely come down to which teams role players hit open threes. Guys like Matt Bonnor, Danny Green, Gary Neal vs. Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Mike Miller.

Miami is going to trap the pick and roll hard. That's their style, so Tony Parker will actually be a facilatator more than a scoring threat in half court sets. It's going to be incumbent on San Antonios shooters to knock down their looks. San Antonio will get lots of open looks, I don't care how athletic Miami is. San Antonio moves the ball exceptionally well, and when you blitz the pick and roll, Tony Parker has 18 assist games like he did against Memphis. When you play under the screen without blitzing it, Tony will hit the open jumper, and if you play over the screen without blitzing it, Tony attacks the paint. The key, again, is when Miami traps the pick and roll, is how the San Antonio role players shoot the ball.

The other interesting aspect to the series will be if Shane Battier continues to ride the pine or if he re-enters the rotation. It makes a huge difference because San Antonio will attack Miami with Battier in by using Tiago Splitter. If they bench Battier in favor of the ultimate small ball line-up where Ray Allen plays SF, I don't think San Antonio can risk playing Splitter on Allen. The Pacers got crushed when David West had to defend Ray Allen tonight.

I think it will be an interesting series. Lots of potential line-up changes and chess moves.

 

[Rich]

Memphis was a good match-up for SA, because they aren't an athletic team.

I expect the Miami series to look alot like last years WCF with the Thunder/Spurs.

LIke where are you getting this? Memphis was a match-up nightmare the last time those two teams played, and Memphis was basically the exact same team. Zach Randolph ABUSED San Antonio two years ago, and San Antonio did nothing except defend him better this time around. Memphis was supposed to beat San Antonio. Only after the fact can someone say they were a good match-up for SA. No one was saying that prior to the series.

 

[chrisrich91]

the heat clutched into a championship gear tonight and my doubt in the spurs just doubled. also didnt the heat win in San antonio without the big three?

Yes and the Spurs, without their 5 best players, forced OT against the Heat in Miami.

That said, Heat in 5 or 6. Can't decide...


6.

 

[NtG]

The 2-3-2 format is an advantage for the away team. Spurs have had a ton of rest, and Heat just went 7. I think the Spurs will steal game 1.

 

[pinoycavsfan]

nobody in the spurs can stop lebron.. if the spurs havent waived jackson, they might have a chance at slowing LBJ down..

this will be a 3pt shooting series with the team who makes the most 3's with a better percentage wins..

LBJ will be guarding parker most of the time daring the likes of green and leonard to beat them..

i predict heat in 6 but not counting out the spurs.. if the spurs can limit the running game of miami, guard battier/haslem/allen, limit wade and bosh, play effective zone defense, and control the boards and the tempo, they might win..

the heat are just too athletic and explosive for the spurs..

 

[billmac91]

LBJ will have moments guarding Tony Parker, but he won't be on him a majority of the time. In fact, there is a very good argument you'd be better off leaving LeBron off of Parker because of how much they pick and roll for him. Mike Conley said it was hell running into a wall 40-50 x's a game. There is also a lot of benefit to leaving LeBron available for rotational purposes on San Antonios shooters. You start putting LeBron on Parker, and as soon as the pick is set and they blitz it, once Parker makes the first pass, San Antonio whips the shit out of the ball. This isn't your typical Eatern Confence stagnant offense.

San Antonio will present some challenges.

 

[Powerslave]

Hey Spurs...

 

[Nathan S]

The Pacers were a far bigger problem match-up wise for the Heat because of Paul George, who outside of game 7 played at a very high level this series.

The Spurs have no Paul George, who at least physically is one of the only guys in the NBA who can at least dream of guarding Lebron effectively.

He will have no resistance when playing the Spurs, and is going to have a Monster series.

The Heat have a much better shot at dealing with Tony Parker than the Spurs do of dealing with Lebron.

Player A: 6'8.75", 6'11.25" wingspan, 8'11" standing reach, 221 pounds

Player B: 6'7", 7'3" wingspan, 8'10" standing reach, 225 pounds

Player B averaged slightly more steals and blocks per minute, and gave up slightly fewer points per play according to Synergy, overall as well as in isolation. Player A is Paul George, and Player B is Kawhi Leonard. If anything, the Spurs match up particularly well against the Heat since their one ace perimeter defender plays the same position as Miami's only major offensive threat.

 

[RealKingofCleve]

Chris Bosh will continue to struggle against the Spurs frontline. Wade, however, will not have Paul George or Lance Stephenson guarding him. He'll get easier looks.

That said, the Miami defense looked very vulnerable the entire series. Particularly down low. And, wouldnt you know it, the Spurs currently have the post low-post player in the game in Tim Duncan who just played a great series against a team that had a far better chance at defending him.

Duncan dominates much like Hibbert, the Spurs won't defend Wade as well as Indiana, but the difference will be Parker. If he plays like he did against Miami (and I don't see why he can't, Mike Conley and Tony Allen are about as good of defenders as you can throw at him) the Spurs win. I'll take the Spurs in 7.

Danny Green?