I'm not sure a Heat/Spurs series goes past 5 games this year. Maybe 6. The Heat just don't look very good this year and their play is flat ugly. It's been effective in the Eastern Playoffs, but the shot selection, offensive flow, and overall pace has been rugged (in a bad way). Losing Mike Miller has hurt, Battier just isn't the same guy in multiple facets, Udonis Haslam is a corpse, and Birdman isn't setting the world on fire like last year. Wade played out of his mind last night and the Nets still hadthem dead to rights if they don't choke. Ray Allen was huge in that series and LeBron carried them as normal, but this is a deeply flawed team. I'd go as far as saying the Heat team that lost in the Finals to the Mavericks was significantly better than this years team.
All that being said, I'm not sure OKC has the right offensive philosophy and overall team game to beat a tough-minded Heat squad. The Spurs will light their asses up with added motivation from last year. Not too mention, the bench of San Antonio is just a monster this year vs. last year where the Heats bench got significantly worse. Patty Mills could start in a lot of places and is great offensive firepower from a back-up PG and keep in mind, the Spurs backup PG last year was essentially Manu because they didn't trust Cory Joesph all that much. Every time Joseph came in the game the Spurs offense went directly into the shitter. Patty Mills at times outplays Parker which sounds crazy, but Pop lets Patty run the show for extended minutes if he's got a hot hand and operating effectively. It's almost humorous watching Parker on the bench soak up extra rest time when Patty is feeling it. Hopefully the tight hamstring is feeling good enough in the next week to not jeopardize the rest of his playoffs. But Manu being healthy is a night and day difference as well. Obviously, if Manu isn't a skeleton of himself last year, that series is over in 6 anyways. Just disappointing Manu wasn't able to work himself back into basketball shape by the finals last year. He's been outstanding this year and had a good playoffs. Obviously, the versatility Diaw brings has been amazing. Guy is like a point-power forward and keeps the ball moving in rhythm so effectively. It's like he was designed specifically for the Spurs offense. He's really grown this year with additional minutes and more time in the system. And then you can't forget the upgrade of Belenelli for Gary Neal. Neal was a nice piece but unfortunately very limited as a 6'1" 2G trying to chase Ray Allen around. Belenelli really benefitted from his years in Chicago and provides significantly better perimeter defense and contest ability being 6'7". And their shooting is largely a wash but slight favor in Belenelli's favor.
I think the amazing thing about this years Spurs team is how much better they are than last year even with increased age from Duncan, Manu, and Diaw. But then you look at the fact that these guys rarely play over 30 mins a game, and now guys like Diaw and Mills are fully indoctrinated into the system and some of the holes they had last year have become absolute strengths. Kawhi has continued to improve and Thiago Splitter went from a 7'1" stiff to a guy who is actually moving well without the ball and has become a defensive stopper. I would not have trusted Splitter on Bosh last year but think that match-up favors the Spurs this year after watching Splitter give Dirk all he can handle in the first series. Splitter moves his feet well and was able to contest out to the three point line.
Anyways, I'm gonna be pulling hard for San Antonio against the LAC/OKC winner. In a weird way I think both LAC and OKC would have a better chance of beating the Spurs because of their athleticism than Miami. At the same time, I don't trust or think OKC or LAC would be mentally tough enough to knock off Miami. The way the Spurs have operated this year though, I think they steamroll Miami. Miami has been able to feast on poor offensive teams that are liable to go 3 to 5 minutes without a field goal and they explode for huge runs on them. That just doesn't happen against San Antonio because they execute too well. And unless LeBron can average 45 minutes a game against the Spurs, when he's off the court, I don't it will be pretty for Miami at all. The bench advantage for the Spurs is just enormous.