Tondo's 2023 Top 100 Guardians prospects

[Martyinnewyork]

Tondo, I’m wondering your thoughts on Jake Fox and Petey Halpin.

 

[CATS44]

In re Rocchio

Coming off a year in which he couldn't even make it stateside to work on back lots in Arizona, he hit the ground running in A+....and then made the big jump to AA, doing even better.

His total number of XBHs across two levels was very impressive....46 in 441 at bats. Thats a lot of punch for a switch hitting contact oriented MIF.

He follows that up with a second swing at AA....slowed by a concussion....then a move up.

He's had a very good 950 at bats since a year off in 2020.

And he did it while providing + defense at short.

IMO he not only has the highest ceiling of all our position prospects, he also has the highest floor of all our prospects.

 

[macbdog]

Yep.

Bibee is Bieber.

Gavin Williams is Jaret Wright.

Danny Espino is Danny Salazar.

(I'm sure those comps won't generate any responses )

Gavin is more Drew Pomeranz, accomplished college pitcher, hard throwing, and would probably benefit the Gs more by being traded.

 

[petes999]

Gavin is more Drew Pomeranz, accomplished college pitcher, hard throwing, and would probably benefit the Gs more by being traded.

Pom never lived up to expectations, like other top prospects. Had a great first full year. Made majors after we traded him. FO May have noticed something in mechanics or behavior/training that wasn’t worth time fixing and thus trade. Who knows what could have been if he got our expertise. If Guard are holding strong on Williams being untouchable, he may still be a Drew but I will gamble on FO opinion if he looks good on making the adj for next steps, as growth continues even after first call-up.

 

[petes999]

Here is another list

 

[petes999]

Know this is old info (11+ years now) but shows one of two things as Cleveland had best success rate for top 100 prospects -- either better training or we hid data from these rating services (vs other team hype)so our guys outperformed. But, shows that 70% bust number varies a lot due to overhype by some orgs.

Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects

Over the last decade, Major League Baseball organizations have treated top prospects as their most valuable commodity. They are inexpensive (at least for the first six or seven years) and they can...

www.royalsreview.com

The guy 7 years later updated his analysis. Indians placed 2nd in total WAR from top 100 prospects and 2nd also in avg WAR per prospect.

He also said 55% of total league WAR comes from ex-top 100 and 41% of top mlb players are non-100 prospects. Just interesting tidbits.

Updating the study on the success and failure rates of top prospects

Prospects are still far from a sure thing.

www.royalsreview.com

 

[CDAV45]

Gavin is more Drew Pomeranz, accomplished college pitcher, hard throwing, and would probably benefit the Gs more by being traded.

Please tell me you're joking.

 

[CATS44]

Know this is old info (11+ years now) but shows one of two things as Cleveland had best success rate for top 100 prospects -- either better training or we hid data from these rating services (vs other team hype)so our guys outperformed. But, shows that 70% bust number varies a lot due to overhype by some orgs.

Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects

Over the last decade, Major League Baseball organizations have treated top prospects as their most valuable commodity. They are inexpensive (at least for the first six or seven years) and they can...

www.royalsreview.com

The guy 7 years later updated his analysis. Indians placed 2nd in total WAR from top 100 prospects and 2nd also in avg WAR per prospect.

He also said 55% of total league WAR comes from ex-top 100 and 41% of top mlb players are non-100 prospects. Just interesting tidbits.

Updating the study on the success and failure rates of top prospects

Prospects are still far from a sure thing.

www.royalsreview.com

I've read both these studies, and cited them often.

No matter how you slice it, a 69% overall failure rate is pretty close to 70%. A 77% failure rate for pitchers is pretty close to 80%.

The main problem, as all these studies admit, is defining success. The bar for success is set fairly low...a total of 9 fWAR over the years of control, no matter how many seasons that takes. The formula is based upon six years (1.5 X 6), but few prospects play/pitch full time from day one in MLB.

Consider this:

Plesac, if all he does is maintain his value per 150 IP over his next three years of control and stays healthy, will end up with a total fWAR of 9. While Plesac was never a top 100 prospect, he will still be considered a success.

How many posters will view Espino, Williams, Bibee, and Allen as successes if they become the next Plesac? I doubt many see any of them that way, and yet..statistically....only one will match or exceed Plesacs level over his years of control.

Another thing to consider:

A young pitcher that does obtain early success in MLB is increasingly unlikely to sign a long term extension, given the explosion of the cost of FA contracts for SPs.

Ask yourself this:

If any of our SP prospects have a Carlos Carrasco career, will you consider them successes for this franchise?

For the first five seasons after Cookie made an appearance with Cleveland, he TOTALED 1.6 fWAR. The next year the light bulb went off mid season and he had a 3.2 WAR year. He then signed a reasonable extension.

If any of our young top 100 SP prospects have a Carrasco type career, we are highly unlikely to be the beneficiaries...and if we are, the benefits won't show up until 2030.

*********

In the last 30+ years, we have had three pitching prospects come to Cleveland and hit the ground running with consistent results....Nagy, CC, and Bieber. And yet, most everybody seems to value all our top pitching prospects as if they were already in that stratosphere...and even talk about Espino as the next CC Sabathia...the absolute best case scenario.

CC was worth about 10 fWAR over his first three seasons, in which he put up 600 IP....a number none of our SP prospects will come close to matching.

If we traded Espino for a Bryan Reynolds, and Espino WAS CC in his first three seasons, we have a much better team for the next three years...a true WS contender. If all Reynolds does is match what he's done in his career, he will give us 12 fWAR. Every statistic suggests that Reynolds would be more productive if he moved from PNC to the Prog.

We would lose that trade on the back end, but only IF Espino=Sabathia, a bet I wouldn't make in 100 years.

 

[bob2the2nd]

I've read both these studies, and cited them often.

No matter how you slice it, a 69% overall failure rate is pretty close to 70%. A 77% failure rate for pitchers is pretty close to 80%.

The main problem, as all these studies admit, is defining success. The bar for success is set fairly low...a total of 9 fWAR over the years of control, no matter how many seasons that takes. The formula is based upon six years (1.5 X 6), but few prospects play/pitch full time from day one in MLB.

Consider this:

Plesac, if all he does is maintain his value per 150 IP over his next three years of control and stays healthy, will end up with a total fWAR of 9. While Plesac was never a top 100 prospect, he will still be considered a success.

How many posters will view Espino, Williams, Bibee, and Allen as successes if they become the next Plesac? I doubt many see any of them that way, and yet..statistically....only one will match or exceed Plesacs level over his years of control.

Another thing to consider:

A young pitcher that does obtain early success in MLB is increasingly unlikely to sign a long term extension, given the explosion of the cost of FA contracts for SPs.

Ask yourself this:

If any of our SP prospects have a Carlos Carrasco career, will you consider them successes for this franchise?

For the first five seasons after Cookie made an appearance with Cleveland, he TOTALED 1.6 fWAR. The next year the light bulb went off mid season and he had a 3.2 WAR year. He then signed a reasonable extension.

If any of our young top 100 SP prospects have a Carrasco type career, we are highly unlikely to be the beneficiaries...and if we are, the benefits won't show up until 2030.

*********

In the last 30+ years, we have had three pitching prospects come to Cleveland and hit the ground running with consistent results....Nagy, CC, and Bieber. And yet, most everybody seems to value all our top pitching prospects as if they were already in that stratosphere...and even talk about Espino as the next CC Sabathia...the absolute best case scenario.

CC was worth about 10 fWAR over his first three seasons, in which he put up 600 IP....a number none of our SP prospects will come close to matching.

If we traded Espino for a Bryan Reynolds, and Espino WAS CC in his first three seasons, we have a much better team for the next three years...a true WS contender. If all Reynolds does is match what he's done in his career, he will give us 12 fWAR. Every statistic suggests that Reynolds would be more productive if he moved from PNC to the Prog.

We would lose that trade on the back end, but only IF Espino=Sabathia, a bet I wouldn't make in 100 years.

Cats this is really interesting analysis but my god is it short sighted (only focusing on 3 years) and leaves off several players to include pitchers like kluber and colon.

Yes if the Gs decided they wanted to put all of their eggs in 1 basket, drain the farm of all possible talent, aim for the next 3 years as the chance to get things done. Then yes absolutely this post makes sense. But that's not how this franchise does business. Nor should it.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Cats this is really interesting analysis but my god is it short sighted (only focusing on 3 years) and leaves off several players to include pitchers like kluber and colon.

Yes if the Gs decided they wanted to put all of their eggs in 1 basket, drain the farm of all possible talent, aim for the next 3 years as the chance to get things done. Then yes absolutely this post makes sense. But that's not how this franchise does business. Nor should it.

There are a number of factors that are being purposefully excluded from @CATS44 's analysis

• The length of time you get to keep young, quality pitching
• The reduced salary you have to pay them, allowing you to spend your limited budget elsewhere
• The value you can trade these players for

I'll take the gamble on guys turning out to be A's instead of filling our roster with C's. Even if 70% of them turn into D's, F's and Incomplete's, the difference they make is worth it.

I don't need a team full of Jake Westbrooks and Amed Rosario's. I want to find that one Lindor and that one Cliff Lee who can elevate our team, and then use our limited financial resources to fill in the gaps afterwards.

 

[sportscoach]

I've read both these studies, and cited them often.

No matter how you slice it, a 69% overall failure rate is pretty close to 70%. A 77% failure rate for pitchers is pretty close to 80%.

The main problem, as all these studies admit, is defining success. The bar for success is set fairly low...a total of 9 fWAR over the years of control, no matter how many seasons that takes. The formula is based upon six years (1.5 X 6), but few prospects play/pitch full time from day one in MLB.

Consider this:

Plesac, if all he does is maintain his value per 150 IP over his next three years of control and stays healthy, will end up with a total fWAR of 9. While Plesac was never a top 100 prospect, he will still be considered a success.

How many posters will view Espino, Williams, Bibee, and Allen as successes if they become the next Plesac? I doubt many see any of them that way, and yet..statistically....only one will match or exceed Plesacs level over his years of control.

Another thing to consider:

A young pitcher that does obtain early success in MLB is increasingly unlikely to sign a long term extension, given the explosion of the cost of FA contracts for SPs.

Ask yourself this:

If any of our SP prospects have a Carlos Carrasco career, will you consider them successes for this franchise?

For the first five seasons after Cookie made an appearance with Cleveland, he TOTALED 1.6 fWAR. The next year the light bulb went off mid season and he had a 3.2 WAR year. He then signed a reasonable extension.

If any of our young top 100 SP prospects have a Carrasco type career, we are highly unlikely to be the beneficiaries...and if we are, the benefits won't show up until 2030.

*********

In the last 30+ years, we have had three pitching prospects come to Cleveland and hit the ground running with consistent results....Nagy, CC, and Bieber. And yet, most everybody seems to value all our top pitching prospects as if they were already in that stratosphere...and even talk about Espino as the next CC Sabathia...the absolute best case scenario.

CC was worth about 10 fWAR over his first three seasons, in which he put up 600 IP....a number none of our SP prospects will come close to matching.

If we traded Espino for a Bryan Reynolds, and Espino WAS CC in his first three seasons, we have a much better team for the next three years...a true WS contender. If all Reynolds does is match what he's done in his career, he will give us 12 fWAR. Every statistic suggests that Reynolds would be more productive if he moved from PNC to the Prog.

We would lose that trade on the back end, but only IF Espino=Sabathia, a bet I wouldn't make in 100 years.

Carrasco didn't mature until he got a family in all sincerity... Plus this crew of SPs has had way different minor league training and development than in previous years... They all went through the development which Plutko, Bauer and Driveline helped design. The culture I feel like has become way better for rookies as well. The older players help the rookies out and it has been that way ever since Giambi has been on the roster.

I also feel like since about 2015, we have been getting more and more hits from draftees and signees than we were before. We went away from pure athletes and focused on plus command pitchers and plus contact/plus bat control type of hitters. It has been working. This roster is comprised of almost of guys we have developed in house or players acquired pre-arb/as minor leaguers...

26 of our 40 man was drafted/signed by us...

11 of our 40 man was acquired while they were in pre-arb/minors...

We have two free agents that were passed.6 years of playing time and one who was acquired in arb, which is Rosario (who was still a very young player at the time).

We are going to get 90 wins...

I get you don't trust keeping all prospects, but hell, doesn't this FO get the benefit of the doubt keeping for their actions?

Plus this farm is what probably near or over 90% signees or draftees by us and we have been very competitive down there as well...

 

[Gson]

Other than fueling a "...see, I was right.." message.. 69 % or 96 % or.. this, that and the other.. is irrrelevant to the truth of the matter: Can anyone say with certainty that the team is better today and into the future by going all in for a single year/emmasculating the farm system?.. If it's against the teams that are running their payrolls up into the upper 200's of millions of dollars.. probably not. The Guardians need to BUILD the team they can and be lucky.. In 2016.. there were very close to being the luckiest.. Maybe, 2023 will allow them to take one step further.. but it won't be as a result of buying their way (with $$ or prospect capital) to the luck..imho..

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Other than fueling a "...see, I was right.." message.. 69 % or 96 % or.. this, that and the other.. is irrrelevant to the truth of the matter: Can anyone say with certainty that the team is better today and into the future by going all in for a single year/emmasculating the farm system?.. If it's against the teams that are running their payrolls up into the upper 200's of millions of dollars.. probably not. The Guardians need to BUILD the team they can and be lucky.. In 2016.. there were very close to being the luckiest.. Maybe, 2023 will allow them to take one step further.. but it won't be as a result of buying their way (with $$ or prospect capital) to the luck..imho..

Give me a 20% chance (or whatever you want to set it at) every year rather than a 30% chance for one year

 

[petes999]

I've read both these studies, and cited them often.

No matter how you slice it, a 69% overall failure rate is pretty close to 70%. A 77% failure rate for pitchers is pretty close to 80%.

The main problem, as all these studies admit, is defining success. The bar for success is set fairly low...a total of 9 fWAR over the years of control, no matter how many seasons that takes. The formula is based upon six years (1.5 X 6), but few prospects play/pitch full time from day one in MLB.

Consider this:

Plesac, if all he does is maintain his value per 150 IP over his next three years of control and stays healthy, will end up with a total fWAR of 9. While Plesac was never a top 100 prospect, he will still be considered a success.

How many posters will view Espino, Williams, Bibee, and Allen as successes if they become the next Plesac? I doubt many see any of them that way, and yet..statistically....only one will match or exceed Plesacs level over his years of control.

Another thing to consider:

A young pitcher that does obtain early success in MLB is increasingly unlikely to sign a long term extension, given the explosion of the cost of FA contracts for SPs.

Ask yourself this:

If any of our SP prospects have a Carlos Carrasco career, will you consider them successes for this franchise?

For the first five seasons after Cookie made an appearance with Cleveland, he TOTALED 1.6 fWAR. The next year the light bulb went off mid season and he had a 3.2 WAR year. He then signed a reasonable extension.

If any of our young top 100 SP prospects have a Carrasco type career, we are highly unlikely to be the beneficiaries...and if we are, the benefits won't show up until 2030.

*********

In the last 30+ years, we have had three pitching prospects come to Cleveland and hit the ground running with consistent results....Nagy, CC, and Bieber. And yet, most everybody seems to value all our top pitching prospects as if they were already in that stratosphere...and even talk about Espino as the next CC Sabathia...the absolute best case scenario.

CC was worth about 10 fWAR over his first three seasons, in which he put up 600 IP....a number none of our SP prospects will come close to matching.

If we traded Espino for a Bryan Reynolds, and Espino WAS CC in his first three seasons, we have a much better team for the next three years...a true WS contender. If all Reynolds does is match what he's done in his career, he will give us 12 fWAR. Every statistic suggests that Reynolds would be more productive if he moved from PNC to the Prog.

We would lose that trade on the back end, but only IF Espino=Sabathia, a bet I wouldn't make in 100 years.

You over looked my point that CLE had 42% success rate (good at either evaluating, developing or suppressing BA expectations but let's ignore that) ... you also overlooked that holding/trading for prospects gave kept Cle in contention for many years with a limted payroll constrains. But, you want to ditch it all. And, I agree with you but when time is right ... like 2016 was and 2017 was suppose to be. The issue is when to go all in and trade prospects. We are not in super tier as we were in 2016 (4th best WS odds in July) and my guess is CLE will just pit up ante (few $$$ on Bell/Zunino) before feeling forced to make trade and offer top-3 talent as most WAR is generated by top 20 prospects (of 100) which Espino is close and Bibee should get to by year-end.

 

[petes999]

We are the 3rd top rising system per MLB, now 3rd overall

3. Guardians
Preseason rank: 12
Re-rank: 3
Cleveland certainly has a type. It selects a college pitcher with good control in the Draft, tightens up his stuff, adds a little velo and watches him take off as a Minor League starting pitcher. Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen all fit the bill quite nicely in 2022 with the first two cracking into MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 as a result. What Daniel Espino lacks in similar control, he made up for in elite stuff with his 70-grade heater and 65-grade slider -- each of which he showed off in a short Double-A spurt before knee and shoulder injuries ended his season. It didn’t stop at pitchers though. Bo Naylor rebounded from a '21 season in which he posted a .612 OPS at Double-A to produce an .888 OPS in 118 games at the Minors’ top two levels, thanks to a more disciplined approach. The Guardians may have sneakily become one of the deepest systems in the game, but the word is certainly out now.