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Tondo's 2023 Top 100 Guardians prospects

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If the outlook is always five years ahead, the team will never reach its potential.

Just look at the numbers. We have more good looking prospects, esp MIFs and SPs, that can possibly be put on one MLB roster. Perhaps our selection of raw material has improved. (Since the org is doing exactly what I've been preaching for nearly a decade with its position selections...contact and skills over power and tools...I think it is.) Maybe the development has improved. It surely looks like it on the pitching side, and maybe on the hitting.

But none of that means squat if we have more than we can use, and are forced to give them away when the clock hits midnight.

The org KNEW it had more MIFs than it could ever use. At one time Chang had value, but had no place to play. Its not hindsight to say he should have been traded. The same will happen to several of Freeman, Arias, Rocchio, Martinez, Brito, and Tena...no matter how good they may be...if the FO doesn't trade a bunch of them. With Gimenez cemented into one spot, there's room for only one of them as a full time MLB player on this team.

The FO KNEW it had too many LH corner outfielders, and gave away Zimmer, Johnson, and Jones, because it waited until they had exhausted their value. The same will happen to somebody out of Brennan, Benson, Valera.

The FO knows it has more young SPs than it can ever put on the MLB roster. It gave away. It has already given away Vargas. The same is gonna happen to many of Espino, Williams, Allen, Bibee, Battenfield, Pilkington, Morris, Morgan, Cantillo, Curry, Gaddis, and Burns...all scheduled to be MLB ready at some point this year. Thats seventeen nominal SPs, including the present rotation. Even if we traded the entire MLB pitching staff, there isn't room for all of them.

It doesnt make a difference if every single one of our near MLB ready prospects ends up being a productive player. Most of them won't be playing for Cleveland. So, we either get value out of them in trade, or we get zilch.

I can guarantee that some of the posters who wouldn't have traded Jones last year for anything, but are okay now with him being dumped, will be the first to complain if Jones hits 15 homers in Colorado.

It's a consistent pattern. Its not okay to trade prospects, because they might develop in five years...like Jones, Zimmer, et al...but its fine to drop them, because they weren't that good anyway.

This isn't a new conversation, BTW. Last year at this time there was strong sentiment that no way should we trade Palacios for Ian Happ. Now, Palacios is on the short list of those who may be DFAd.

Nobody, esp me, wants to trade the farm. But I am perfectly willing to trade the 60 acres of swampland in the back that might become valuable some day, if it ever gets drained and cultivated. 60 acres out of 1200...esp if I can get 40 acres of profitable black dirt in return.
I think you're overrating guys and conflating internet boards with reality.

If Chang or Bobby Bradley had real value around the league, they likely would've been moved. I think most people saw their failure as likely from miles away.

Reality is, no matter what Fangraphs, or Baseball America, or whatever your internet board/list of choice says, GM's and scouts have different evaluations.
 
65 RHP Tommy Mace (24.1yo, ranked 23rd in 2022)

Two words describe 6'6 RHP Tommy Mace best: talented (but) inconsistent. Mace has been a hot name in draft circles since his HS days. The Reds drafted him in the 12th rd in 2017, but couldn't meet his asking price, so Mace went to Florida and pitched for the Gators the next 4 years, as again nobody met his asking price in the 2020 draft. CLE took him with their comp B pick after the 2nd rd in 2021 when he was already 22yo, but considering his pedigree it was buying a low signing him for 1.1M. Noteworthy that Mace was one of 3 Florida Gators pitchers CLE took in that draft class.
So how went Mace's first pro season? Considering his background and advanced age, Mace was assigned straight to A+ as SP in LC's rotation, but his performance was more of the same: flashing his greatness in one game, just to lose it in his next one. In his first pro start, Mace didn't make it out of the 1st inning, allowing 3H, 2BB, 3R, 2ER. The week after, he threw 4 one-hit shutout innings, striking out 7. Next start? 3.1IP, 6H, 6R/Er, followed by 9.2IP his next two starts with only 4H, 1 Er allowed. That was Tommy Mace's pro debut in a nutshell.
From a development standpoint, this is not as bad as it seems. He's still flashing his stuff, but it's still inconsistent. It's also very likely that he was working on obvious weaknesses causing those results. Still, it was a little disappointing that his K% and SwStr% were well below average, especially considering age/level.
Here's the good/best news though: as inconsistent as his debut season was, he made it through healthy and there was a clear improvement in the second half of the season. Mace pitched in 22 games, most starts or piggybacks. After his first 11, his ERA stood at an ugly 6.23. In his last 11 it was 3.22.
I've buried Mace in this bucket because I believe he'll end up a bulk RP/LR, but he will still get opportunities as SP because of his repertoire and pedigree and he probably still belongs in the P pile around Gaddis/Nikhazy (and most will still have him there). He will start in Akron as 24yo next year and if he can continue his second half turnaround and show consistency, Mace is very much back in the SP depth race. As of now, I believe the most likely scenario is a path similar to Sam Hentges, hopefully with the same outcome.
Good write up.. I don't like Mace's four seam FB.. it's kind of a nothing/slightly faster than average batting practice pitch.. If he wasn't tall.. it would be worse.. But his two seam/sinker and his curve ball are both gems.. both present from the same tunnel.. and both go down upon approaching home plate.. The curveball drops a LOT faster and is nearly 10 mph slower.. IDK why he'd ever throw his other pitches to an advanced batter.. I just don't know.. RP/bulk sounds like his best path to the show.. agree with you on that..

Thanks for doing these..
 
65 RHP Tommy Mace (24.1yo, ranked 23rd in 2022)

Two words describe 6'6 RHP Tommy Mace best: talented (but) inconsistent. Mace has been a hot name in draft circles since his HS days. The Reds drafted him in the 12th rd in 2017, but couldn't meet his asking price, so Mace went to Florida and pitched for the Gators the next 4 years, as again nobody met his asking price in the 2020 draft. CLE took him with their comp B pick after the 2nd rd in 2021 when he was already 22yo, but considering his pedigree it was buying a low signing him for 1.1M. Noteworthy that Mace was one of 3 Florida Gators pitchers CLE took in that draft class.
So how went Mace's first pro season? Considering his background and advanced age, Mace was assigned straight to A+ as SP in LC's rotation, but his performance was more of the same: flashing his greatness in one game, just to lose it in his next one. In his first pro start, Mace didn't make it out of the 1st inning, allowing 3H, 2BB, 3R, 2ER. The week after, he threw 4 one-hit shutout innings, striking out 7. Next start? 3.1IP, 6H, 6R/Er, followed by 9.2IP his next two starts with only 4H, 1 Er allowed. That was Tommy Mace's pro debut in a nutshell.
From a development standpoint, this is not as bad as it seems. He's still flashing his stuff, but it's still inconsistent. It's also very likely that he was working on obvious weaknesses causing those results. Still, it was a little disappointing that his K% and SwStr% were well below average, especially considering age/level.
Here's the good/best news though: as inconsistent as his debut season was, he made it through healthy and there was a clear improvement in the second half of the season. Mace pitched in 22 games, most starts or piggybacks. After his first 11, his ERA stood at an ugly 6.23. In his last 11 it was 3.22.
I've buried Mace in this bucket because I believe he'll end up a bulk RP/LR, but he will still get opportunities as SP because of his repertoire and pedigree and he probably still belongs in the P pile around Gaddis/Nikhazy (and most will still have him there). He will start in Akron as 24yo next year and if he can continue his second half turnaround and show consistency, Mace is very much back in the SP depth race. As of now, I believe the most likely scenario is a path similar to Sam Hentges, hopefully with the same outcome.

All I have to say about Tommy Mase is Cant Nobody Hold Him Down...oh no, you got to keep on moving.
 
I think you're overrating guys and conflating internet boards with reality.

If Chang or Bobby Bradley had real value around the league, they likely would've been moved. I think most people saw their failure as likely from miles away.

Reality is, no matter what Fangraphs, or Baseball America, or whatever your internet board/list of choice says, GM's and scouts have different evaluations.

Chang was in the vetoed Lucroy deal...
 
Chang was in the vetoed Lucroy deal...
Good catch. He was a throw-in. He really didn't have much value, especially not what some websites were claiming.

Mejia was the value. Armstrong, Allen and Chang were throw-ins from our side.

Also, this clearly shows that the front office was willing to move him. So... what point is @CATS44 trying to make?
 
3. Guardians
Preseason rank: 12
Re-rank: 3
Cleveland certainly has a type. It selects a college pitcher with good control in the Draft, tightens up his stuff, adds a little velo and watches him take off as a Minor League starting pitcher. Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen all fit the bill quite nicely in 2022 with the first two cracking into MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 as a result. What Daniel Espino lacks in similar control, he made up for in elite stuff with his 70-grade heater and 65-grade slider -- each of which he showed off in a short Double-A spurt before knee and shoulder injuries ended his season. It didn’t stop at pitchers though. Bo Naylor rebounded from a '21 season in which he posted a .612 OPS at Double-A to produce an .888 OPS in 118 games at the Minors’ top two levels, thanks to a more disciplined approach. The Guardians may have sneakily become one of the deepest systems in the game, but the word is certainly out now.

 
64 RHP Trenton Denholm (23.1yo)

Denholm was considered a 2nd to 4th rd talent for the 2020 draft after two stellar seasons in college and Cape Cod Summer league. But nobody selected Denholm, probably because he asked for much more than teams were willing to offer. At that time, Denholm was very young for his draft class, so he bet on himself and returned to college hoping to enter top 50 (and 7 figure bonus money) draft territory. His 2021 season at UC Irvine didn't go as planned though, as he had a rather bad season. With that, Denholm lost a lot of draft helium and leverage. The Guardians like to pick up those post hype profiles after disappointing draft seasons, it's one of their value niches (Plesac, Karinchak, Brennan etc). Denholm got passed down all the way to round 14, although he was still considered a mid round talent. He and his advisors tried to recuperate as much bonus as possible, but ultimately as rounds and bonus pool money dried up, he had to settle for a little over the day 3 minimum as CLE gave him 150K. This lengthy individual draft process story just to highlight that every (college) draftee has a different path before turning pro. Denholm (probably) had a disappointing draft experience and entered pro ball at his lowest point (of value and maybe self esteem). Only time will tell if he uses this adversity as a chip on his shoulder.

Denholm's debut season was mostly average. He was used exclusively as a starter/piggyback, but was assigned to A Ball Lynchburg because of SP depth in the system. His SwStr% was a little below league average, while FIP/xFIP above average. Those results are a little disappointing considering his solid arsenal which features a plus changeup and a rising FB that has seen an uptick and reached the high 90s. Denholm also has a solid breaking ball, which will make or break his progression as a SP. For now, I'll project him as a solid RP prospect, but this ranking feels too low, as I was a huge Denholm advocate going into both 20/21 drafts. He lost a little SP shine with his meh (but ok) debut, but it wouldn't shock me if Denholm turns on the jets and goes full Tanner Bibee next season. After all, he's another Big West Conference pitcher. Never underestimate those.
 
64 RHP Trenton Denholm (23.1yo)

Denholm was considered a 2nd to 4th rd talent for the 2020 draft after two stellar seasons in college and Cape Cod Summer league. But nobody selected Denholm, probably because he asked for much more than teams were willing to offer. At that time, Denholm was very young for his draft class, so he bet on himself and returned to college hoping to enter top 50 (and 7 figure bonus money) draft territory. His 2021 season at UC Irvine didn't go as planned though, as he had a rather bad season. With that, Denholm lost a lot of draft helium and leverage. The Guardians like to pick up those post hype profiles after disappointing draft seasons, it's one of their value niches (Plesac, Karinchak, Brennan etc). Denholm got passed down all the way to round 14, although he was still considered a mid round talent. He and his advisors tried to recuperate as much bonus as possible, but ultimately as rounds and bonus pool money dried up, he had to settle for a little over the day 3 minimum as CLE gave him 150K. This lengthy individual draft process story just to highlight that every (college) draftee has a different path before turning pro. Denholm (probably) had a disappointing draft experience and entered pro ball at his lowest point (of value and maybe self esteem). Only time will tell if he uses this adversity as a chip on his shoulder.

Denholm's debut season was mostly average. He was used exclusively as a starter/piggyback, but was assigned to A Ball Lynchburg because of SP depth in the system. His SwStr% was a little below league average, while FIP/xFIP above average. Those results are a little disappointing considering his solid arsenal which features a plus changeup and a rising FB that has seen an uptick and reached the high 90s. Denholm also has a solid breaking ball, which will make or break his progression as a SP. For now, I'll project him as a solid RP prospect, but this ranking feels too low, as I was a huge Denholm advocate going into both 20/21 drafts. He lost a little SP shine with his meh (but ok) debut, but it wouldn't shock me if Denholm turns on the jets and goes full Tanner Bibee next season. After all, he's another Big West Conference pitcher. Never underestimate those.
What I liked most about him was that he throws strikes.. with all of his arsenal.. I don't like that he's a little guy and NOT left handed.. As far as his future/projection.. a second division starter or a middle inning / bulk reliever..
 
For those like me who were intrigued by the reranking and biggest risers of farm systems per MLB Pipeline. I thought they were reranking in anticipation of the Winter/BOY for 2023 farm system rankings. Yet, later I noticed that it was just a weak article based on their mid-August reranks just written now. I guess we get what we pay for (nothing).

 
What I liked most about him was that he throws strikes.. with all of his arsenal.. I don't like that he's a little guy and NOT left handed.. As far as his future/projection.. a second division starter or a middle inning / bulk reliever..
Spencer Strider like size wise…
 
That be interesting if they ranked Brennan that high, he's not been ranked on baseball nor fangraphs well at all... (Nice first post by the way).

You're posting this in a thread where Brennan was ranked 7th.

Also, I'd appreciate general minors discussion to be posted in the 2023 minors thread. This thread was started for my personal rankings. While I appreciate some discussion, I don't want a bunch of pages in between my writeups discussing prospect failure rates or how Cats would do a better job as Antonetti. Thanks
 
You're posting this in a thread where Brennan was ranked 7th.

Also, I'd appreciate general minors discussion to be posted in the 2023 minors thread. This thread was started for my personal rankings. While I appreciate some discussion, I don't want a bunch of pages in between my writeups discussing prospect failure rates or how Cats would do a better job as Antonetti. Thanks

I was referring to the national places who don't like Brennan's skillset...

Maybe it would be better to make a different thread that says Tondo's Top Guardians prospects... I feel like with this title to many people will take the thread the wrong way. (I mean I cannot say I am not a culprit since I just respond to what other people post).
 
You're posting this in a thread where Brennan was ranked 7th.

Also, I'd appreciate general minors discussion to be posted in the 2023 minors thread. This thread was started for my personal rankings. While I appreciate some discussion, I don't want a bunch of pages in between my writeups discussing prospect failure rates or how Cats would do a better job as Antonetti. Thanks

Then I would suggest adding Tondo's to the title so others know to leave this for your write-up's .... can't wait until you post a few more. I would be interested where you would have put Kelly and Enright if Misa and Miko are your next few prospects.

And, if you are/willing to write up all 66 write-ups .. then this thread is yours.
 
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