Tondo's 2023 Top 100 Guardians prospects

[Tondo]

Then I would suggest adding Tondo's to the title so others know to leave this for your write-up's .... can't wait until you post a few more. I would be interested where you would have put Kelly and Enright if Misa and Miko are your next few prospects.

And, if you are/willing to write up all 66 write-ups .. then this thread is yours.

Thanks for your suggestion, petes and coach. I've changed the thread title....

Enright and Kelly would also either be in the Herrin 40 FV or Miko/Misiaszek 35+ group. RP are tougher to rank and roster decision do influence perception, that's why Herrin is a 40 and M/M 35+, though I think I'm too low on both. With Miko, it's definitely some prospect fatigue involved (writeup will be up later).

A bunch of other prospects I included in the other groups could have been added to the list and I expect many to make a jump onto it next year, especially from the teenage helium and draft depth groups. But I just ranked prospects I felt comfortable with an initial value

 

[Tondo]

63 RHP Nick Mikolajchak (25.1yo, ranked 20th in 2022)

I'll start with the conclusion after I looked at Miko's 2022: this ranking is too low. He (and Misiaszek) belongs in the 40FV pile around 40th on this list. Just as I've overvalued him last offseason, expecting him to be one of the many Guardians debutant, I've now undervalued him after his mediocre season. Prospect expectation fatigue set in and then he was both not rostered or picked up in R5, which added to that perception of Mikolajchak.

But, as we've seen with Oscar Gonzalez last year, this means nothing now. A new season is ahead and Miko is very much at the top of RP options for the Guardians.
Miko had a lot of helium after a strong year at AA in 2021 skipping Class A entirely. In Columbus, his velocity and overall quality of stuff regressed, but he still found ways of getting the job done. In fact, his ERA was as good, even slightly better in AAA. And while his peripherals were worse than the year before, they were still above average compared to other AAA arms with 50+ IP, so was his SwStr%.
If you add age/level (24 and under), Miko ranked 6th of 55 P in ERA and 15th in both FIP and SwStr%. You didn't expect that, didn't you? Yeah, neither did I. Not sure if they still used the old ball in AAA, but it was rough for pitchers at that level. Case in point: Pilkington who had better ML stats than AAA.

What does this mean for Mikolajchak heading into 2023? Again, nothing. Everything's reset again. If his stuff gets back to 2021 form, he's a lock to debut as Guardian next season. And if it doesn't, Miko certainly learned more ways to get outs, even working on a tightrope. He never had problems throwing strikes, but his BB/9 ballooned over 5 in AAA, probably a consequence of losing his stuff and confidence in it. And yet, his percentage of scoreless outings was better in AAA than AA. Another surprising fact.

So despite the overall disappointing 2022 season, Miko maybe has further developed his mental fortitude needed for a ML RP role. As it is, I believe he has all the makings of a decent up and down middle reliever and if his quality of stuff returns, so does his ceiling of backend/setup RP.

 

[Gson]

63 RHP Nick Mikolajchak (25.1yo, ranked 20th in 2022)

I'll start with the conclusion after I looked at Miko's 2022: this ranking is too low. He (and Misiaszek) belongs in the 40FV pile around 40th on this list. Just as I've overvalued him last offseason, expecting him to be one of the many Guardians debutant, I've now undervalued him after his mediocre season. Prospect expectation fatigue set in and then he was both not rostered or picked up in R5, which added to that perception of Mikolajchak.

But, as we've seen with Oscar Gonzalez last year, this means nothing now. A new season is ahead and Miko is very much at the top of RP options for the Guardians.
Miko had a lot of helium after a strong year at AA in 2021 skipping Class A entirely. In Columbus, his velocity and overall quality of stuff regressed, but he still found ways of getting the job done. In fact, his ERA was as good, even slightly better in AAA. And while his peripherals were worse than the year before, they were still above average compared to other AAA arms with 50+ IP, so was his SwStr%.
If you add age/level (24 and under), Miko ranked 6th of 55 P in ERA and 15th in both FIP and SwStr%. You didn't expect that, didn't you? Yeah, neither did I. Not sure if they still used the old ball in AAA, but it was rough for pitchers at that level. Case in point: Pilkington who had better ML stats than AAA.

What does this mean for Mikolajchak heading into 2023? Again, nothing. Everything's reset again. If his stuff gets back to 2021 form, he's a lock to debut as Guardian next season. And if it doesn't, Miko certainly learned more ways to get outs, even working on a tightrope. He never had problems throwing strikes, but his BB/9 ballooned over 5 in AAA, probably a consequence of losing his stuff and confidence in it. And yet, his percentage of scoreless outings was better in AAA than AA. Another surprising fact.

So despite the overall disappointing 2022 season, Miko maybe has further developed his mental fortitude needed for a ML RP role. As it is, I believe he has all the makings of a decent up and down middle reliever and if his quality of stuff returns, so does his ceiling of backend/setup RP.

hmm.. a few tidbits to add..

-Pronunciation of his name: My-coe-LOGIC

-Fastball is his best pitch.. he's sitting in the 94 - 96 range.. but with the high riding path it travels to the plate, it seems faster..
-Interesting shape to his change up.. same starting point of his FB, but this has some deception and tumble..
-Effort and delivery as a setup guy/back of the pen.. seems waaay over done as he head whacks and falls off to the first base side of the mound.... almost too much effort.. but the movement can be distracting to hitters who have never seen him..

Strongest asset = confidence.. in his ability & in general..

I would think he'd be up into the 30's for prospect lists..

 

[Tondo]

62 Andrew Misiaszek (25.4yo)

Misiaszek, like Mikolajchak, is ranked too low. They're in the same position now, but came from opposite sides of the prospect spectrum. While Miko was considered the best pure RP prospect entering 2022, Misiaszek was a former 32nd rd pick that entered the upper levels at age 24, the definition of periphery prospect/org soldier.

(Not so) random fun fact: Misiaszek was drafted out of Northeastern, Civale's alma mater. They were teammates for one year in 2016. That fact's not so random, because that small conference (CAA) is one CLEFO likes to draft from (Civale, Palacios, Royalty, K. Kelly, Delauter).

Misiaszek opened 2022 by simply dominating at AA Akron. He appeared in 17 games and pitched 32 innings there. Among 600+ pitchers at that level, Misiaszek is the ONLY pitcher that came in top 3 in all of ERA/FIP/xFIP. That's an incredible feat. In his age group, his K/BB was 9th best and SwStr% 20th out of 303 pitchers. He shoved and was promoted to AAA. There, in 29.2 IP, he struggled with control (5+ BB/9, like Miko), but his stuff still played. Among 520+ pitchers, Misiaszek 18.9 SwStr% was 3rd best. The two guys ahead of him were 28 and 29yo. His peripherals still rated well above avg (top 25%, equivalent to 125 wRc+).
So how does he miss bats? Misiaszek is a 6'2 LHP with a plus sweeping slider and 90ish mph FB with rise that he gets by hitters at the top of the zone. He also has valuable changeup to mix in and get hitters off his FB. That's a deep mix for a RP and why he has been used in a multi innings role, so that will be his initial ML ticket (think McCarty, but much better).

Misiaszek performed every bit as good as Tim Herrin in AA/AAA while being a year younger. His stuff isn't as loud and doesn't come with Herrin's upside, but it was as effective. His stuff doesn't look flashy, but his performance sure does. Misiaszek wasn't rostered, because he doesn't offer Herrin's ceiling, but I'm a bit surprised he wasn't selected in the Rule 5 draft. For me, it's not a matter of if, but only when Misiaszek will reunite with Civale and be teammates again.

 

[Tondo]

61 RHP Hunter Stanley (25.1yo)

Stanley followed Kirk McCarty and Nick Sandlin as recently CLE drafted arm from Southern Mississippi. Like them, he was a standout performer in college with eye popping K/BB ratios. Like Sandlin, Stanley was a reliever turned starter.

Despite the strong numbers in college, Stanley dropped to the 11th round because he was already 23yo on draft day. He was assigned straight to the A+ roster to make up for it, but he got injured after only 4 appearances and 14.1 IP (1.84 ERA) as a piggyback starter and missed the rest of the season. Until then, he was on a similar path as 2021 draftclassmate Tanner Bibee.
Stanley was sent to the AFL to get some work in and did quite well there with a 24 to 7 K/BB ratio in 20+ innings. Most notably, Stanley was used as a starter in the Fall league.

He features a 3 pitch mix of a low to mid 90s heater, a plus flashing slider and a solid average changeup. That arsenal comes with at least above average to plus control, so that gives him a chance to start, though his stuff and funky delivery (starts low like a sidearmer, but ends up with an over the top release) are probably better suited to a relief role. Like others ranked in this section, he's a RP/SP tweener who could be developed as multi innings P.

Stanley should open in AA this upcoming season, probably as a piggyback or pure RP considering the amount of SP prospects vying for innings at the upper levels. If he can stay healthy, I expect Stanley to easily beat the level and finish the season in AAA. You've heard this before, but advanced pitchability arms with outstanding control and decently good stuff that limit baserunners (excellent WHIP wherever he's pitched) find their ways to the top. Stanley is a breakout candidate if he can stay healthy.

 

[Tondo]

60 1B/OF Micah Pries (24.9yo, ranked 66th in 2022)

Micah Pries remains interesting. That's pretty much it.

Ok, more context. Pries was a Division II lotto ticket taken in the 13th rd of the 2019 draft, the 400th player selected. Probably a couple hundred of those drafted before him aren't as interesting as Pries now, so that's a small win, I guess.

Pries finally got a full season of reps last year with 504 PA, all at AA Akron.
Here's the bad: the list of 24yo AA 1B is full of org guys and prospect periphery. So in a way, that's where Pries is too, a longshot to make it. His 119 wRc+ was OK, but considering he's a 1B/LF only type, it's kinda meh. A lot of his peripherals are average too, his BB/K even below average (though improved from 2022).
Here's the good: what keeps Pries list-worth'ish is his power-speed combo in his 6'4 frame. He hit 18 HR and stole 20 bases (24 attempts). His inconsistency getting there can also be seen as untapped upside considering his raw background. Pries hit 14 of his HRs through June, then just 4 more the next 3 months. But overall, his 52 XBH were among the best at the AA level in 2022 and that list (50+ XBH) is a good one including Gage Workman, Anthony Volpe, Ronny Mauricio and Jordan Walker. That's pretty good company.
But, those prospects are much younger and play more valuable positions, so Pries needs to continue to hit and hit for power to get attention. He keeps reminding me of Bradley Zimmer, but unlike Zimm, Pries can still improve his contact ability simply by cleaning up his approach and swing decisions.
He enters his age 25 season with a clear path at full time AAA reps on a team full of prospects. A fringe, older prospect like Pries needs to perform the best when opportunity dictates. Now is the time for Micah to strik'ah while his iron is kinda hot. If he repeats a 20/20'ish season at AAA, he'll get league wide attention even if there's no room on the Guardians roster.

 

[Criznit]

60 1B/OF Micah Pries (24.9yo, ranked 66th in 2022)

Micah Pries remains interesting. That's pretty much it.

Ok, more context. Pries was a Division II lotto ticket taken in the 13th rd of the 2019 draft, the 400th player selected. Probably a couple hundred of those drafted before him aren't as interesting as Pries now, so that's a small win, I guess.

Pries finally got a full season of reps last year with 504 PA, all at AA Akron.
Here's the bad: the list of 24yo AA 1B is full of org guys and prospect periphery. So in a way, that's where Pries is too, a longshot to make it. His 119 wRc+ was OK, but considering he's a 1B/LF only type, it's kinda meh. A lot of his peripherals are average too, his BB/K even below average (though improved from 2022).
Here's the good: what keeps Pries list-worth'ish is his power-speed combo in his 6'4 frame. He hit 18 HR and stole 20 bases (24 attempts). His inconsistency getting there can also be seen as untapped upside considering his raw background. Pries hit 14 of his HRs through June, then just 4 more the next 3 months. But overall, his 52 XBH were among the best at the AA level in 2022 and that list (50+ XBH) is a good one including Gage Workman, Anthony Volpe, Ronny Mauricio and Jordan Walker. That's pretty good company.
But, those prospects are much younger and play more valuable positions, so Pries needs to continue to hit and hit for power to get attention. He keeps reminding me of Bradley Zimmer, but unlike Zimm, Pries can still improve his contact ability simply by cleaning up his approach and swing decisions.
He enters his age 25 season with a clear path at full time AAA reps on a team full of prospects. A fringe, older prospect like Pries needs to perform the best when opportunity dictates. Now is the time for Micah to strik'ah while his iron is kinda hot. If he repeats a 20/20'ish season at AAA, he'll get league wide attention even if there's no room on the Guardians roster.

I think you have Pries a little low here, but the writeup is spot on. Hard to say with limited numbers, but there doesn't appear to be platoon concerns as well. He'll have to deliver the goods in 2023 and is an "interesting" lotto ticket/throw-in now and no where to go but up.

I have no idea how his defense rates, seeing how I don't have a clue it's likely to be average at best. Big year for the big kid. A couple of tweaks, more reps, who knows. I don't think anyone would disagree with the notion that whatever Pries does from here on out is a plus as I don't think anyone ever expected him to make this much noise.

 

[sportscoach]

60 1B/OF Micah Pries (24.9yo, ranked 66th in 2022)

Micah Pries remains interesting. That's pretty much it.

Ok, more context. Pries was a Division II lotto ticket taken in the 13th rd of the 2019 draft, the 400th player selected. Probably a couple hundred of those drafted before him aren't as interesting as Pries now, so that's a small win, I guess.

Pries finally got a full season of reps last year with 504 PA, all at AA Akron.
Here's the bad: the list of 24yo AA 1B is full of org guys and prospect periphery. So in a way, that's where Pries is too, a longshot to make it. His 119 wRc+ was OK, but considering he's a 1B/LF only type, it's kinda meh. A lot of his peripherals are average too, his BB/K even below average (though improved from 2022).
Here's the good: what keeps Pries list-worth'ish is his power-speed combo in his 6'4 frame. He hit 18 HR and stole 20 bases (24 attempts). His inconsistency getting there can also be seen as untapped upside considering his raw background. Pries hit 14 of his HRs through June, then just 4 more the next 3 months. But overall, his 52 XBH were among the best at the AA level in 2022 and that list (50+ XBH) is a good one including Gage Workman, Anthony Volpe, Ronny Mauricio and Jordan Walker. That's pretty good company.
But, those prospects are much younger and play more valuable positions, so Pries needs to continue to hit and hit for power to get attention. He keeps reminding me of Bradley Zimmer, but unlike Zimm, Pries can still improve his contact ability simply by cleaning up his approach and swing decisions.
He enters his age 25 season with a clear path at full time AAA reps on a team full of prospects. A fringe, older prospect like Pries needs to perform the best when opportunity dictates. Now is the time for Micah to strik'ah while his iron is kinda hot. If he repeats a 20/20'ish season at AAA, he'll get league wide attention even if there's no room on the Guardians roster.

Am I allowed to ask if he's a more athletic Jesus Aguilar on paper? Closer to what Mike Papi was supposed to be?

 

[Tondo]

Am I allowed to ask if he's a more athletic Jesus Aguilar on paper? Closer to what Mike Papi was supposed to be?

The name that kept popping up in stats search was actually Michael Toglia, lol

 

[Tondo]

I think you have Pries a little low here, but the writeup is spot on. Hard to say with limited numbers, but there doesn't appear to be platoon concerns as well. He'll have to deliver the goods in 2023 and is an "interesting" lotto ticket/throw-in now and no where to go but up.

I have no idea how his defense rates, seeing how I don't have a clue it's likely to be average at best. Big year for the big kid. A couple of tweaks, more reps, who knows. I don't think anyone would disagree with the notion that whatever Pries does from here on out is a plus as I don't think anyone ever expected him to make this much noise.

Yeah, he's an extra bat that could break out if his selectivity improves to the 0.5 BB/K range or better. But I don't think I have him too low for now. 24yo 1B bats with above average performance at AA are really mostly org guys, so the most likely outcome is a MicAAAh Pries. He would be in my upper minors group if it wasn't for his tools and raw background.

Imagine the Columbus lineup, we'll see something like:

Palacios
Rocchio
Benson/Quinn
Valera
Noel
Naylor/Lavastida
Pries/Benson
Fry
Tena

Bench: Viloria/Lavastida, R. Delgado, Quinn

And good chance Freeman bumps Fry to the bench

 

[Criznit]

Yeah, he's an extra bat that could break out if his selectivity improves to the 0.5 BB/K range or better. But I don't think I have him too low for now. 24yo 1B bats with above average performance at AA are really mostly org guys, so the most likely outcome is a MicAAAh Pries. He would be in my upper minors group if it wasn't for his tools and raw background.

Imagine the Columbus lineup, we'll see something like:

Palacios
Rocchio
Benson/Quinn
Valera
Noel
Naylor/Lavastida
Pries/Benson
Fry
Tena

Bench: Viloria/Lavastida, R. Delgado, Quinn

And good chance Freeman bumps Fry to the bench

If Pries has any defensive value and Columbus's rep for inflating batting stats/dingers holds up - he could be a decent late bloomer/old rookie. Never OPS'd below 800 (season averages, he was at .788 in in 45 A+ games) during his run.. Not holding my breath but think he is closer to #40 than 60.

 

[Tondo]

If Pries has any defensive value and Columbus's rep for inflating batting stats/dingers holds up - he could be a decent late bloomer/old rookie. Never OPS'd below 800 (season averages, he was at .788 in in 45 A+ games) during his run.. Not holding my breath but think he is closer to #40 than 60.

I said the same thing about Mikolajchak/Misiaszek. System is so deep. We added a full slate of IFA/draft without trading away anyone. Just look at the names I have around 40, Hankins, Leftwich, Herrin, Burns, Battenfield.
And the 35+ group starts at 46, so I believe it's the right group for Pries for now. I'm not as high because his peripherals don't suggest he'll get to his tools, his game won't translate. He needs to clean up his approach to become more than a wildcard for me.

 

[Criznit]

I said the same thing about Mikolajchak/Misiaszek. System is so deep. We added a full slate of IFA/draft without trading away anyone. Just look at the names I have around 40, Hankins, Leftwich, Herrin, Burns, Battenfield.
And the 35+ group starts at 46, so I believe it's the right group for Pries for now. I'm not as high because his peripherals don't suggest he'll get to his tools, his game won't translate. He needs to clean up his approach to become more than a wildcard for me.

Thanks for doing what you do Tondo.

Yeah - wildcard is right... He smells AAAA a bit, but the rawness/lack of pedigree will continue to intrigue me for now.

 

[Tondo]

Kyle Marman (25.9yo, NR, Upper Minors Depth)

Marman's been a draft sleeper of mine ever since he was selected in the 13th rd of the 2018 draft. He just pitched 62 innings in college, as an injury ended his draft season abruptly, otherwise he was on his way to become a mid round (4-6) draftee.
He was moved to the pen and was dominant in A Ball in 2019. After the lost year, he was assigned to AA, but struggled there with both performance and injury again.
Marman repeated AA last year and while he still struggled with control (5+ BB/9), he missed a ton of bats. Out of 251 pitchers with 50+ IP his SwStr% was t2nd, expanding to include more RP, out of 493 AA pitchers with 30+ IP, Marman's 19,3 SwStr% was still t5th.

That's elite swing and miss territory and noteworthy, especially since scouts keep bringing up that he's an intriguing fastball shape data guy. The stuff is there, it misses bats. If he can improve his strike throwing, he could quickly become a bullpen option for the Guardians.

 

[Tondo]

Wuilfredo Antunez (20.7yo, NR, Teenage Helium)

Antunez was a late, unheralded IFA signing in 2018 out of Venezuela. He debuted in 2019 in the DSL, but only got 53 PA and did well in those (121 wRc+). Then, he disappeared. No 2020 for all and no 2021 record for Antunez (probably injury related). He resurfaced in the Arizona Complex League last year and made the most of his 99 PA he got there.
Out of 334 bats there with 80+ PA, Antunez ranked in the top 10 in wRc+, OBP, BB/K and 15th in ISO. All of that came with a modest 333 BABIP, so no luck inflated stats either. Antunez dominated and got rewarded with a call-up to Lynchburg where he got into 5 games and produced more BB thank K again (217 wRc+).

Antunez won't turn 21 until mid May, so he'll start as 20yo in full season ball and is back on track in terms of age/level. His peripherals suggest he'll keep performing up the ladder, so he's on sleeper alert. Antunez is similar to Burgos pre 2022, but actually even better, with more power potential. He's played mostly as CF and has a chance of 50+ tools across the board, so there's real helium potential here.