Welcome 8th Pick from Brooklyn

[bigfoot5415]

Nets are screwed if Lin is out an extended period of time. He said, "I'm done". That can't be good.

They played at such a high pace and got beat by the Pacers.

 

[I'mWithDan]

That's a bad opinion, since even if Brooklyn is the worst team in the NBA the pick is still not a LOCK to be top 3.

Unless you can control ping-pong balls with your mind.

I think I just phrased it wrong typing quickly. A lock to be top 3 odds.

If they're the worst team (which I think is in play now with the Lin injury), you'd have a 65% chance at a top 3 selection.

 

[bigfoot5415]

I think I just phrased it wrong typing quickly. A lock to be top 3 odds.

If they're the worst team (which I think is in play now with the Lin injury), you'd have a 65% chance at a top 3 selection.

I think it's wording as well. I get what the point was. No pick is a lock for top 3, in fact the worst team even has a shot at picking 4th. To me it's highly likely they pick top 3.

 

[Mavaliersfan]

So we're trending in the right direction already. Pelicans lose to a non-playoff Grizzlies team, while Davis and Cousins put up big numbers and Brooklyn loses their best player for possibly the year.

 

[shoes22]

I think I just phrased it wrong typing quickly. A lock to be top 3 odds.

If they're the worst team (which I think is in play now with the Lin injury), you'd have a 65% chance at a top 3 selection.

And 100% at top 4.

 

[Lyuokdea]

I think it's wording as well. I get what the point was. No pick is a lock for top 3, in fact the worst team even has a shot at picking 4th. To me it's highly likely they pick top 3.

Let's make some predictions.

I'll start with the relatively optimistic assumption that there is a 33% chance that the Nets finish with the worst record in the NBA. The Bulls might have even less talent and be more dysfunctional than the Nets. The Knicks/Lakers/Magic/Pacers/Suns are all historically bad.

Worst Record = 1/3
2nd Worst Record = 1/3
3rd Worst Record = 1/6
4th Worst Record = 1/6

I can't imagine being any more optimistic than this presently. This gives the Nets a 0% chance of not being one of the 4 worst teams. And a 2/3 chance of being one of the two worst (along with the Bulls).

The odds of different picks are then:

P(pick) = sum(P(record) * P(pick|record))

#1 = 19.55%
#2 = 18.15%
#3 = 16.45%
#4 = 27.95%
#5 = 14.36%
#6 = 3.33%
#7 = 0.2%

That's a 54.15% chance of getting a top 3 pick. I honestly can't imagine being any more optimistic at presence.

Luckily the top 5 in this draft is pretty good throughout.

 

[Huber.]

So we're trending in the right direction already. Pelicans lose to a non-playoff Grizzlies team, while Davis and Cousins put up big numbers and Brooklyn loses their best player for possibly the year.

Why do we care about the Pelicans? They're not trading AD and Cousins isn't worth the pick unless LeBron signs an extension.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Lots of trades you could make for Cousins - even if he isn't worth the Nets pick straight up.

Assuming Pelicans are somewhere between 8-10 seed in the West going into the trading deadline, then I think Nets pick + Filler for Cousins + Pelicans pick makes a lot of sense.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Let's make some predictions.

I'll start with the relatively optimistic assumption that there is a 33% chance that the Nets finish with the worst record in the NBA. The Bulls might have even less talent and be more dysfunctional than the Nets. The Knicks/Lakers/Magic/Pacers/Suns are all historically bad.

Worst Record = 1/3
2nd Worst Record = 1/3
3rd Worst Record = 1/6
4th Worst Record = 1/6

I can't imagine being any more optimistic than this presently. This gives the Nets a 0% chance of not being one of the 4 worst teams. And a 2/3 chance of being one of the two worst (along with the Bulls).

The odds of different picks are then:

P(pick) = sum(P(record) * P(pick|record))

#1 = 19.55%
#2 = 18.15%
#3 = 16.45%
#4 = 27.95%
#5 = 14.36%
#6 = 3.33%
#7 = 0.2%

That's a 54.15% chance of getting a top 3 pick. I honestly can't imagine being any more optimistic at presence.

Luckily the top 5 in this draft is pretty good throughout.

Top 5 pick is good with me.. everyone in the top 5 already has a high ceiling as it is and that doesn't count the risers that are going to come out of nowhere.

Lin wasn't really himself even during preseason and he wasn't very good in his first game. Like I said, Nets have players that were bound to make the 3rd year leap in D-Lo, Hollis-Jefferson and they have some pretty capable scorers in Levert, Crabbe and Kilpatrick, but the thing is, they are one way players.. they don't have one player who is good at both ends of the floor. The only who is making a case is Hollis-Jefferson but I still don't trust his offense at all.
They might win some fluke games because they do have the firepower like you saw in the game against the Pacers, but it's still very early.

Biggest thing is that D-Lo was much better as a SG next to Lin than a PG on both ends, so now they have to insert a scorer at the 1/2 that is even worse defensively than Lin. Sheesh.

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

Lots of trades you could make for Cousins - even if he isn't worth the Nets pick straight up.

Assuming Pelicans are somewhere between 8-10 seed in the West going into the trading deadline, then I think Nets pick + Filler for Cousins + Pelicans pick makes a lot of sense.

I'd offer TT + our 2018 1st max for Cousins. The Nets pick wouldn't even be brought into consideration.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I'd offer TT + our 2018 1st max for Cousins. The Nets pick wouldn't even be brought into consideration.

IT,Wade, Lebron, Love, Cousins.. WHO GETS THE BALL? trying to figure that out halfway through the season with Lue as your coach is a scary thought.

 

[catfish]

I got to say having this pick and now with the Lin injury is pretty weird

 

[chuck0609]

Come on NJ, stink up the court!

 

[Funkmastabuck]

Even if the Nets are awful, it's tough to imagine they'll end up with the worst record since they have no incentive to tank. Everyone else with a similarly bad record will realize the draft pick is on the line. That's not the case for the Nets.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Even if the Nets are awful, it's tough to imagine they'll end up with the worst record since they have no incentive to tank. Everyone else with a similarly bad record will realize the draft pick is on the line. That's not the case for the Nets.

The team was 13-21 when Lin was on the court last season (.382).

Over the course of a season, that would make them a 32 or so win team.

Nets were 7-41 when Lin was off the court last season (.146).

Over the course of a season, that would make them a 12 or so win team.

The players they added were garbage out, garbage in.

The Nets are, unequivocally, awful without Lin.

I don't know why so many people think they won't (or are not likely to be) the worst team.