doughboy90650
Fisher for 3 ??? BANG
- Joined
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Yahoo's 21-30
30. Leandro Barbosa(notes), Toronto Raptors (last year: 11th)
Injured and distracted for most of 2009-10, Barbosa fell and fell hard, shooting the worst percentages from the field and from behind the 3-point line for his career, and averaging less than double-figure points for the first time since his second season. A fresh start in Toronto will help, but Barbosa is a ball dominator who will have to contend with (as Hedo Turkoglu(notes) did last season) Toronto's motion attack, though we're rooting for him to bounce up another 19 slots.
29. Thabo Sefolosha(notes), Oklahoma City Thunder (last year: unranked)
Thabo is often a liability on the offensive end, as the end result of many Thunder possessions usually sees him clanging an open corner 3-pointer while the defense loads up on all of his teammates. No matter, because Thabo causes problems on the other end. The long-armed Sefolosha might just be the best wing defender in the league, and only reputation and my possible (OK, definite) stubbornness stops him from being ranked higher.
28. Evan Turner(notes), Philadelphia 76ers (last year: unranked)
This was a struggle, because Turner is being billed as a sound rookie who won't come crashing out of the gates in his first year. Worse, he looked pretty terrible during the summer leagues, floating around the court without making much of an impact. Summer league play is never a great barometer when it comes to rookies, but I'd much prefer seeing a player overestimate his own athleticism or talent while being aggressive during SL play, than not know what to do without the ball. The latter is a harder trait to lose.
27. Mike Miller(notes), Miami Heat (last year: 19th)
Excuse what might look like laziness, but let me just quote what I wrote last year:
"Based on 2008-09 alone, Miller probably shouldn't be in the top 30 of this list, much less the top 20. He passed up a ridiculous amount of good shots for the Timberwolves, hurting the team as he tried a poor Jason Kidd(notes) imitation and offering nothing but snide remarks as explanation. Hopefully he gets his head straight this season."
Mike? It only worsened in Washington. And now you're on a Heat team with a whole lot of fun people to pass to. Doesn't matter. Shoot the ball.
26. Richard Hamilton(notes), Detroit Pistons (last year: 15th)
Turning 32 during the All-Star break, Hamilton's marks from the field and 3-point line dropped off considerably last season, though he still maintained an 18.1 points-per-game average. That doesn't smack of a lion going out gracefully -- still getting yours, even though your effectiveness has waned. This smacks of someone still trying to party like it's 2005, and Pistons coach John Kuester might have a problem on his hands, as a result.
25. Rodrigue Beaubois(notes), Dallas Mavericks (last year: unranked)
If you go with per-minute stats by themselves, Roddy should shoot way, way up this list. But a couple of things are working in his disfavor.
First, with players like Beaubois, they tend to get the baseball treatment their second time around the league. Teams will now know to back off him, force him to shoot, and they'll know to prevent him for going for tip-dunks on the baseline. People are aware. Second, Dallas coach Rick Carlisle could continue to play him less than half a game, and though he might do more per-minute than a whole lot of others that top him on this list, I can't fully commit to a per-minute appropriate ranking until I see him play for 35-plus minute stretches. Hopefully this will be corrected as the season moves along.
24. Anthony Morrow(notes), New Jersey Nets (last year: 23rd)
There is no better shooter on this shooting guard list. It really isn't even that close, as Morrow has nailed a whopping 220 out of 491 3-pointers on his career, an astonishing 46 percent from long range. It's everything else, with Morrow, that is lacking. If he can somehow make the jump from bit role player (though nobody plays his role better) to someone who at least approximates starter-worthy all-around play, than New Jersey could have something here. Even if he stays the same, though, this is a good pick-up.
23. Vince Carter(notes), Orlando Magic (last year: sixth)
Yes, I had him sixth last season. Why? Ask any Nets fan who watched him in 2008-09: Carter was a borderline All-Star that season. Not last season, where he floated and occasionally helped and absolutely disappeared in the playoffs. Carter has an all-around game, he can still rebound and make the pass while working a screen-and-roll, and he's still a threat to shoot his way toward 37 points every so often. But he just never applied himself when the going got tough. Pity.
22. James Harden(notes), Oklahoma City Thunder (last year: unranked)
I fully submit this might be a stretch, but with so many Thunder playing completely healthy ball last season, and Kevin Durant(notes) playing in the world championships this summer, the odds are that someone is going to tweak something and be out for seven games, and that someone else is going to do the same and be out for 12. Enter Harden, who works a good all-around game off the bench.
21. Eric Gordon(notes), Los Angeles Clippers (last year: 16th)
Gordon still seems like an odd duck to me. He can disappear for stretches, but also swipe and run his way toward fast-break lay-ins, or get hot from outside. I think he's a good defender despite his size, and because the Clippers struck out so terribly in the free-agent market (I'd laugh about it if I weren't so crestfallen that their fans still have to deal with this), he'll be relied upon to put up needed points.
Yahoo's 11-20
20. Jason Terry(notes), Dallas Mavericks (last year: 15th, but as a point guard)
82games.com doesn't have Terry playing a single second at point guard last season, and with Dallas' guard rotation (where 5-10 Jose Juan Barea(notes) sometimes acts as a small forward offensively, alongside Terry and Jason Kidd(notes)), who knows? What we do know is that JET's scoring efficiency drags him far beyond the type of players who are ranked below him, though his percentages dropped a bit at age 32 last year. He's got another year, and then the list you read earlier this morning takes over.
19. O.J. Mayo(notes), Memphis Grizzlies (last year: 17th)
A lot of people took Mayo's failed (miserably failed, if we're honest) attempt at playing point guard during the summer leagues as a desperation move. Going with the glass-half-full approach, I'm wondering if Mayo just took the crash course in order to become a better-handling off-guard, rather than a full-on backup point man. Mayo has stagnated since his rookie year, but if his confidence and driving improves he could have a significantly better season than the players ranked below him on this list (ones that were, admittedly, better than him last season).
18. J.R. Smith(notes), Denver Nuggets (last year: 14th)
Speaking of optimism ...
Smith was awful last season. His stats dipped for the second straight year, and he launched over six 3-pointers a game (while coming off the bench, no less) despite shooting just 33.8 percent. Maybe it's because this is a contract year. Maybe his very tradeable contract could be moved in a deal for both its expiring merits, its affordability and resemblance to other MLE-styled deals (Smith's at $6.7 million this year), or because he's always a threat to drop 30 in no time at all.
Or, perhaps I'm a fool for ranking him this high. Only J.R. can give us an answer.
17. J.J. Redick(notes), Orlando Magic (last year: unranked)
If Redick starts, his all-around game (you heard me) could be the salve that puts Orlando back into the Finals. Because as great as Miami can be, guarding four 3-point shooters and an all-world center at once is a pretty tough task, and Redick's passing and driving ability after the close out (something Mickael Pietrus(notes) is wholly uninterested in) could be a difference-maker. Or, Stan Van Gundy could continue to treat him like Dana Barros. Stan's call.
16. Ray Allen(notes), Boston Celtics (last year: seventh)
Allen is a struggle, because for all his white-hot nights (or months, like when he dropped over 20 a game last February despite making "only" 35 percent of his 3-pointers), he still rounds out to pretty average. Allen isn't exactly some flighty youngster, but he'll look unworthy of a top 30 selection on some nights, and drop a quick 25, no worries, the next time out.
15. John Salmons(notes), Milwaukee Bucks (last year: 14th, but as a small forward)
I've been warning people about John Salmons' age for years, and I think he has one good John Salmons-ish year left in him. Turning 31 in December, Salmons should benefit from a full season of screens from Andrew Bogut(notes), and his low-intensity scoring should translate for a little while. And on a team like the Bucks that struggles to score, John will be handed all the shots he can handle.
14. Ben Gordon(notes), Detroit Pistons (last year: 12th)
Everything about Gordon's 2009-10 run screamed "fluke." A career 41.5 percent 3-point shooter entering the season, Gordon's average dipped to 32.1 percent in his first year with Detroit. Now, you can blame Detroit's terrible offense or all the new players he had to work with, but Gordon spent years in Chicago working in a terrible offense on a team that was constantly turning over rotation spots 4-through-12. I say he bounces back, and though he doesn't contribute much in other areas, his scoring efficiency could have him keeping the Pistons close in games they have no business being in.
13. Gilbert Arenas(notes), Washington Wizards (last year: unranked)
We had no idea what to expect from Arenas heading into 2009-10, after playing in just 15 of a possible 164 games the previous two years. We couldn't have expected his felony gun possession charge, of course, which led to another long layoff and more question marks as John Wall(notes) comes to town and Arenas slides over to the shooting guard position. Washington, desperate to trade him, will no doubt feature Gilbert for big minutes. But despite his big per-game scoring numbers last year (20.6 a game), Arenas overall was pretty average, especially when you factor in his potentially league-worst defense.
12. Jamal Crawford(notes), Atlanta Hawks (last year: unranked)
Though Crawford's game has made you cringe for years, it was still great to see this veteran of the rebuilding process finally take to a role that suited him, win the Sixth Man Award and make the playoffs for the first time in his 10-year career. Crawford can make the jump pass (not the most fundamentally sound dish), and he tries to use his length defensively, but his best skill is still getting really, really, really hot from long range and firing in a defender's face after a crossover that fools nobody into thinking he's driving. More of the same, please.
11. Monta Ellis(notes), Golden State Warriors (last year: 18th, but as a point guard)
The guy dropped over 25 points a game, and he's not even in the 10 best at his position?
Well, yeah. Did you see those games?
Monta was an on-court cancer last season, consistently looking off teammates better suited to work their way to an easy score. He drove and shot with abandon, and killed as many Warrior runs as he positively contributed to. Yes, he averaged 25.5 points, but if you play 41.4 minutes a contest on the fastest team in the league, and put up 22 shots? You better be scoring 25.5 points per game. At least.
Sadly, I don't think Ellis moves away from this - what would you call it, 'determined?' - play until he's traded out of Golden State. Even an owner/GM/coach whitewash probably won't help.
Yahoo's 1-10
10. Kevin Martin(notes), Houston Rockets (last year: ninth)
Healthy, playing for a coach who knows how to get him open, and working with a team that will depend on him for scoring, Martin should have a bounce-back year in 2010-11. His numbers with Houston last season were nearly identical to his pre-trade numbers with the Sacramento Kings, but at 27 entering the season Martin could start to ring up a series of career years.
9. Jason Richardson(notes), Phoenix Suns (last year: 13th)
Richardson played absolute knockout basketball for the Suns in the playoffs last year, averaging nearly 20 points per game on 50 percent shooting with a 47.5 mark from long range. And while a 16-game sample size is nothing to bank on, the 29-year old could come home with the best season of his career in 2010-11. Especially with Amar'e Stoudemire(notes) in New York, Richardson's all-around gifts will be badly needed. And a silver lining for Suns fans? I don't recall many of Richardson's threes coming from some amazing extra pass tossed out by a double-teamed Amar'e.
8. Stephen Jackson(notes), Charlotte Bobcats (last year: 11th, but as a small forward)
He passed less and shot more, per possession, but I was struck by the way Jackson handled the trade that sent him from the Golden State Warriors to Charlotte last year. Going from one of the fastest teams in the NBA last season to one of the slowest, Jackson's defense improved, his scoring (21.1 per game) stayed strong (though, for all those minutes and shots, it better), and his defense was fantastic despite his 31 years of age. I'm guessing one more of those years before the drop off, though I concede that might be too optimistic.
7. Tyreke Evans(notes), Sacramento Kings (last year: unranked)
Tyreke handles the ball a ton for the Kings, but he also lines up in the starting five alongside Beno Udrih(notes). And unless you want to start calling the 5-11 Udrih a shooting guard, Evans gets the call as a ball-dominating off guard. Some didn't like the way Evans and the Kings shot for that 20-point, five-rebound, five-assist average last season, but it was really all Sacramento had going for it late last season, and I didn't think the attention too unseemly. Evans is a special talent, and his next trick is going to be learning how to mesh those all-around talents in a five-man pro setting.
6. Andre Iguodala(notes)
So, here's where we get to the mea culpa.
For every 30 players I put up, I write bios for about 33 or so for contention, decide on the placement, and then re-write the bios according to placement. And right before I was to post the 30-through-21 list yesterday, I chickened out regarding Evan Turner's(notes) placement (or, non-placement) on this list, and substituted him into the lower rungs of this list while re-writing his descriptive paragraph, with the understanding that everyone else would move down a spot.
The problem is that I didn't move everyone else down a spot. I just substituted Turner for Marcus Thornton(notes), and forgot to lose Thabo Sefolosha(notes) along the way. And, really, Thornton will be much, much better than Turner this year. Most likely better than a few of the guards ahead of Turner on yesterday's list. It was insecurity that led to an unprofessional late switch, the reason the post went up at five after 10 a.m. Eastern on Thursday and not 10, and I was wrong to do it.
On top of that? I originally had Andre Iguodala as a shooting guard, going back and forth as to whether or not he should be a two or a three, thinking that - in Doug Collins' system - Iggy will guard small forwards while Turner will be shoved to the side as a small forward on offense while AI handles the ball. But I shouldn't go there, and should rank Iguodala as an all-out wing. So this would be Iggy's place as a shooting guard, but he's not one, and you'll read about him on the small forward list.
If anything else, I hope that these screwups give you a little insight as to how nutty I am about getting these rankings right. Even if they go way, way wrong.
5. Manu Ginobili(notes), San Antonio Spurs (last year: fourth)
At his best, and healthiest, Manu is just a step below Kobe Bryant(notes). The problem is that he's not often healthy, doesn't play enough minutes, and can't sustain the type of brilliance that we saw last March, when Manu averaged 22.1 points in just 31 minutes on 52 percent shooting, with 9.6 combined rebounds/assists. So, number five sounds about right; with the caveat that, when everything is going smoothly, few can take over a game like Manu.
4. Joe Johnson(notes), Atlanta Hawks (last year: fifth)
I called his contract extension "the worst contract in NBA history," and I meant it. $120 million to a 29-year old, until he's 35? Terrible.
But for this season, and the next, Johnson will be a sound all-around wing player for the Hawks. Yes, he needs the ball and plenty of minutes to drop his (over) 20 and (nearly) five and five, but he's also a lower rung All-Star who can be counted on to sop up minutes (and for that yearly January swoon, as the minutes catch up to him), and that's enough for a top five ranking at this position.
3. Brandon Roy(notes), Portland Trail Blazers (last year: third)
Roy took a bit of a step back in 2009-10, but if anything, it pointed out that his all-world play in 2008-09 might be a bit of an aberration, and the 2009-10 is more of the norm. But what a norm it is - 26 other teams would kill for that "norm." 21.5 points per game and 9.1 combined assists/rebounds, and on a team with the lowest amount of possessions per game. The injuries worry the heck out of me, but let's not get into that until we have to, OK?
2. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (last year: second)
You can't rant and rail and tell me once again that I'm looking for attention or trying to create waves, but Kobe Bryant is coming off a year that saw him drag an injured leg and back around, and he's still got a bum index finger on his shooting hand. He's played over 45,000 minutes in his career counting the playoffs, and he turns 32 on Monday. Dwyane Wade(notes) shot better, turned the ball over fewer times, assisted more despite terrible teammates, picked up more steals and blocks, and he's four years younger. And he'll have the better year in 2010-11.
The Lakers are still the favorites in my eyes, and Kobe Bryant should be respected more than any other player in this league, but he's part of a great team now; and he passed the torch last season. Really, he passed it in 2008-09, to those who were playing attention.
1. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (last year: first)
Nobody wants anything to do with Wade, his teammates, and the unseemly mess that produced what will be the 2010-11 Miami Heat; but you can't argue with his production from last season. Constantly double and triple teamed, with some defenses sending trap defenders to get the ball out of his hands 30 feet from the hoop, Wade still put up 26.6 points on 47.6 percent shooting, with 11.3 combined assists/rebounds. 1.8 steals and 1.1 blocks, too. At age 28, this guy is just hitting his prime, too.
No problem with the order of the top three...... funny thing about the article is O.J. Mayo is being killed. Even has him guarding himself and being abuse in practically every picture.
