Adam
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It's not a board it's order he made them in
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2018 NBA Draft - June 21
- Thread starter The Process God
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Sir'Dom Pointer
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I think it's the ranking...
Derek
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No, it's a board, but as with most things Nathan does, it's analytic based
That's not necessarily where I'd rank him, but that's where he comes out with this rating system where I break up the score into six categories (perimeter/interior/team offense and defense). He rates below-average in every area except interior offense. Again, I don't think that's entirely fair to him, but it does highlight how 1-dimensional his game is.
EDIT: Here's the breakdown on him:
EDIT2: I guess I did rate him slightly above-average on interior defense too...but that's more him being tall and alive than an indication of any particular skill in that area.
Perimeter offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 3/10
Shot 40% from deep on limited attempts, but form is seriously suspect, and he seemed to have unusually many "bad" misses. 63% foul shooting not a great sign.
Interior offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 10/10
Not a particularly advanced ballhandler, but has enough moves to put himself in position to utilize his outstanding athleticism. A serious menace around the basket in spite of just-average length, capable of slithering around defenders with quick feet and elevating for a strong finish given a glimmer of daylight.
Team offense - simple rating 2/10, advanced rating 3/10
Not a plus decision maker, though not particularly poor for his age either. Defenses will likely bring help liberally when he gets the ball in scoring position and challenge him to make the correct pass. Wasn't expected to do much off the ball besides make himself a target in the paint, but to be effective at the NBA level he'll have to learn to make himself useful without clogging the lane.
Total offense - 16/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10
Sort of in a similar boat to MPJ; good enough physical tools that he won't be a total traffic cone, but instincts seem to be lacking.
Interior defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 6/10
Quick and strong enough to hold his own in theory, but again doesn't seem to have the best instincts, and isn't long enough to bother most bigs without leaving his feet.
Team defense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10
Doesn't bring much in the way of team defense...not great awareness of opposing shooters, and seems slow and hesitant helping on penetration. More at home crashing the boards, where his raw motor and athleticism make up for questionable fundamentals.
Total defense - 15/30
Shot 40% from deep on limited attempts, but form is seriously suspect, and he seemed to have unusually many "bad" misses. 63% foul shooting not a great sign.
Interior offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 10/10
Not a particularly advanced ballhandler, but has enough moves to put himself in position to utilize his outstanding athleticism. A serious menace around the basket in spite of just-average length, capable of slithering around defenders with quick feet and elevating for a strong finish given a glimmer of daylight.
Team offense - simple rating 2/10, advanced rating 3/10
Not a plus decision maker, though not particularly poor for his age either. Defenses will likely bring help liberally when he gets the ball in scoring position and challenge him to make the correct pass. Wasn't expected to do much off the ball besides make himself a target in the paint, but to be effective at the NBA level he'll have to learn to make himself useful without clogging the lane.
Total offense - 16/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10
Sort of in a similar boat to MPJ; good enough physical tools that he won't be a total traffic cone, but instincts seem to be lacking.
Interior defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 6/10
Quick and strong enough to hold his own in theory, but again doesn't seem to have the best instincts, and isn't long enough to bother most bigs without leaving his feet.
Team defense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10
Doesn't bring much in the way of team defense...not great awareness of opposing shooters, and seems slow and hesitant helping on penetration. More at home crashing the boards, where his raw motor and athleticism make up for questionable fundamentals.
Total defense - 15/30
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Other statistical measures generally agree that Bagley and Ayton are unusually weak lottery bigs...for instance:
I can't vouch for the methodology behind these stats, but at a glance, past lottery bigs who were worse than +2 defensively in college (Kaminsky, Markkanen, Okafor, Bennett, Monroe, Udoh, Randle, and Chriss) either ended up being offensive specialists or complete busts. Bagley and Ayton rate worse than any of them defensively.
I can't vouch for the methodology behind these stats, but at a glance, past lottery bigs who were worse than +2 defensively in college (Kaminsky, Markkanen, Okafor, Bennett, Monroe, Udoh, Randle, and Chriss) either ended up being offensive specialists or complete busts. Bagley and Ayton rate worse than any of them defensively.
16 players done...added a couple sleepers who rate very well statistically in Okogie and Melton.
As always, I'd appreciate it if you point out anything that seems glaringly incorrect in my analysis. I only watched 2-3 full games plus highlights for most of these players. Overall ranking currently looks like:
T1. Doncic
T1. Jackson
3. Jontay
4. Smith
5. Carter
6. Melton
T7. Young
T7. Mikal
T9. Shai
T9. Bamba
11. MPJ
12. Okogie
T13. Ayton
T13. Miles Bridges
T13. Sexton
16. Bagley
Josh Okogie (35/60 overall)
DeAnthony Melton (39/60 overall)
As always, I'd appreciate it if you point out anything that seems glaringly incorrect in my analysis. I only watched 2-3 full games plus highlights for most of these players. Overall ranking currently looks like:
T1. Doncic
T1. Jackson
3. Jontay
4. Smith
5. Carter
6. Melton
T7. Young
T7. Mikal
T9. Shai
T9. Bamba
11. MPJ
12. Okogie
T13. Ayton
T13. Miles Bridges
T13. Sexton
16. Bagley
Josh Okogie (35/60 overall)
Perimeter offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10
Somewhat questionable mechanics, but shot a solid percentage from deep in spite of taking a significant number of shots off the dribble, and backs it up with 82% shooting from the line.
Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 9/10
Crazy combination of length, strength and vertical athleticism gives him serious upside as a slasher. Has a good first step, but doesn't have the advanced ballhandling skills to get around bigger, more athletic defenders, and struggles as a decision maker when the defense collapses.
Team offense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 4/10
Not selfish per se, but generally failed to turn his impressive one-on-one play into efficient team basketball. No ability to improvise when he can't get to the rim on his initial move; simply jacks a midrange jumper (shot 29% from midrange).
Total offense - 20/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 7/10
Combination of length and athleticism gives him great potential, though to the eye he wasn't quite as impressive as he should be with his tools. Perhaps poor fundamentals/habits as a result of playing on a hopeless GaTech team.
Interior defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 5/10
Sort of underwhelming in his physicality in spite of having the tools to be a difference maker in the paint. Seemed a lot more comfortable against smaller players he could overwhelm with his size and length than against bigs.
Team defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 3/10
Makes some highlight plays in help defense, and has some ability to play passing lanes, but team was dramatically better defensively with him on the bench, suggesting that he may be seriously mistake prone on this end. Not clear how much to read into this, but enough reason to pump the brakes on the idea that his physical gifts will translate to effective defense.
Total defense - 15/30
Somewhat questionable mechanics, but shot a solid percentage from deep in spite of taking a significant number of shots off the dribble, and backs it up with 82% shooting from the line.
Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 9/10
Crazy combination of length, strength and vertical athleticism gives him serious upside as a slasher. Has a good first step, but doesn't have the advanced ballhandling skills to get around bigger, more athletic defenders, and struggles as a decision maker when the defense collapses.
Team offense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 4/10
Not selfish per se, but generally failed to turn his impressive one-on-one play into efficient team basketball. No ability to improvise when he can't get to the rim on his initial move; simply jacks a midrange jumper (shot 29% from midrange).
Total offense - 20/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 7/10
Combination of length and athleticism gives him great potential, though to the eye he wasn't quite as impressive as he should be with his tools. Perhaps poor fundamentals/habits as a result of playing on a hopeless GaTech team.
Interior defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 5/10
Sort of underwhelming in his physicality in spite of having the tools to be a difference maker in the paint. Seemed a lot more comfortable against smaller players he could overwhelm with his size and length than against bigs.
Team defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 3/10
Makes some highlight plays in help defense, and has some ability to play passing lanes, but team was dramatically better defensively with him on the bench, suggesting that he may be seriously mistake prone on this end. Not clear how much to read into this, but enough reason to pump the brakes on the idea that his physical gifts will translate to effective defense.
Total defense - 15/30
DeAnthony Melton (39/60 overall)
Perimeter offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 3/10
Poor, but not quite hopeless 28% shooting from 3 and 71% from the line. Decent chance to develop at least a respectable set shot in the future, but unlikely to ever become a serious perimeter threat.
Interior offense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10
Good enough first step and ballhandling ability to get to the rim occasionally, where he's a respectable finisher with some vertical pop. Lack up pull-up threat and elite size limits him.
Team offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 8/10
Seriously impressive point guard skills for his age, though it's noteworthy that he lost an important year of development in this area. Good intuition for how to run an offense, with some ability to make advanced, creative passes. Creates transition opportunities by forcing live-ball turnovers.
Total offense - 16/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10
Super effective one-on-one defender in spite of unremarkable physical tools. Crazy effort level, impossible to shake. Great hands make him a serious threat to strip the ball. Good reflexes make him play bigger than his measurements on contests.
Interior defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 5/10
Doesn't have the strength to hold position against bigs, but nose for the ball and shot blocking instincts make him a serious nuisance.
Team defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 9/10
Seriously disruptive help defender; fantastic instincts playing passing lanes and helping off his man to contest shots. As much of a rim protector as it's possible to be at the guard position.
Total defense - 23/30
Poor, but not quite hopeless 28% shooting from 3 and 71% from the line. Decent chance to develop at least a respectable set shot in the future, but unlikely to ever become a serious perimeter threat.
Interior offense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10
Good enough first step and ballhandling ability to get to the rim occasionally, where he's a respectable finisher with some vertical pop. Lack up pull-up threat and elite size limits him.
Team offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 8/10
Seriously impressive point guard skills for his age, though it's noteworthy that he lost an important year of development in this area. Good intuition for how to run an offense, with some ability to make advanced, creative passes. Creates transition opportunities by forcing live-ball turnovers.
Total offense - 16/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10
Super effective one-on-one defender in spite of unremarkable physical tools. Crazy effort level, impossible to shake. Great hands make him a serious threat to strip the ball. Good reflexes make him play bigger than his measurements on contests.
Interior defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 5/10
Doesn't have the strength to hold position against bigs, but nose for the ball and shot blocking instincts make him a serious nuisance.
Team defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 9/10
Seriously disruptive help defender; fantastic instincts playing passing lanes and helping off his man to contest shots. As much of a rim protector as it's possible to be at the guard position.
Total defense - 23/30
18 players done...added a couple interesting seniors, who I believe are two of the most NBA-ready prospects after Doncic and Mikal.
As always, I'd appreciate it if you point out anything that seems glaringly incorrect in my analysis. I only watched 2-3 full games plus highlights for most of these players. Overall ranking currently looks like:
T1. Doncic
T1. Jackson
3. Jontay
4. Smith
5. Carter
6. Melton
T7. Young
T7. Mikal
T9. Shai
T9. Bamba
11. MPJ
12. Okogie
T13. Jevon
T13. Clark
T15. Ayton
T15. Miles Bridges
T15. Sexton
18. Bagley
Jevon Carter (34/60 overall)
Gary Clark (34/60 overall)
[/QUOTE]
As always, I'd appreciate it if you point out anything that seems glaringly incorrect in my analysis. I only watched 2-3 full games plus highlights for most of these players. Overall ranking currently looks like:
T1. Doncic
T1. Jackson
3. Jontay
4. Smith
5. Carter
6. Melton
T7. Young
T7. Mikal
T9. Shai
T9. Bamba
11. MPJ
12. Okogie
T13. Jevon
T13. Clark
T15. Ayton
T15. Miles Bridges
T15. Sexton
18. Bagley
Jevon Carter (34/60 overall)
Perimeter offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10
Consistently accurate from deep (and from the line) over the last couple years, though percentages and volume aren't quite elite.
Interior offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 3/10
Decent handle and quickness, but very little explosiveness in the paint. Will likely struggle finishing against NBA length.
Team offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 8/10
Very intelligent player who showed a lot of leadership over the last couple years. Fundamentally sound, low-mistake floor general. Creates transition opportunities with his defense. Doesn't quite have the innate creativity/flair to be a truly elite floor general at the NBA level.
Total offense - 18/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10
Relentless competitor who makes every dribble a challenge. Incredibly quick hands; strips the ball in the blink of an eye even when it looks like the ballhandler has a step on him. Strong, low stance makes him difficult to shake, but also hurts his ability to contest jumpers vs. bigger guards.
Interior defense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 3/10
Fantastic strength and positioning instincts make him an obstacle in spite of very small stature. Always a threat to poke the ball away given the slightest opportunity.
Team defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 5/10
High IQ and good leadership, but lack of size and length limits his ability to switch and help in a lot of situations. Aware of passing lanes, but small stature and average athleticism limits his ability to gamble for steals and recover to his man.
Total defense - 16/30
Consistently accurate from deep (and from the line) over the last couple years, though percentages and volume aren't quite elite.
Interior offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 3/10
Decent handle and quickness, but very little explosiveness in the paint. Will likely struggle finishing against NBA length.
Team offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 8/10
Very intelligent player who showed a lot of leadership over the last couple years. Fundamentally sound, low-mistake floor general. Creates transition opportunities with his defense. Doesn't quite have the innate creativity/flair to be a truly elite floor general at the NBA level.
Total offense - 18/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10
Relentless competitor who makes every dribble a challenge. Incredibly quick hands; strips the ball in the blink of an eye even when it looks like the ballhandler has a step on him. Strong, low stance makes him difficult to shake, but also hurts his ability to contest jumpers vs. bigger guards.
Interior defense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 3/10
Fantastic strength and positioning instincts make him an obstacle in spite of very small stature. Always a threat to poke the ball away given the slightest opportunity.
Team defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 5/10
High IQ and good leadership, but lack of size and length limits his ability to switch and help in a lot of situations. Aware of passing lanes, but small stature and average athleticism limits his ability to gamble for steals and recover to his man.
Total defense - 16/30
Gary Clark (34/60 overall)
Perimeter offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 2/10
Developed some semblance of a 3-point shot as a senior, but unclear if he can extend it to NBA range with any consistency.
Interior offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 6/10
Nice combination of craftiness and athleticism in the paint, but not quite big enough to be a lob target at the NBA level, and not really crafty enough with the ball to get into the paint on his own.
Team offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 6/10
Selfless teammate willing to do all the little things to help his team win; fully embraces "glue guy" role. Intelligent passer with some limited ability to create, but errs very far on the side of being deliberate and conservative; not really an out-of-the-box thinker.
Total offense - 14/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 5/10
Shows good effort on the perimeter and has solid fundamentals, but doesn't have particularly quick feet or long arms. Forced to play off of ballhandlers to compensate, which negates his physicality and good hands.
Interior defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10
Strong and intelligent post defender; quality size for an NBA PF and plays bigger thanks to his quick reflexes on contests.
Team defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 7/10
High-IQ team defender who made it very difficult for opponents to get anything going inside. Innate creativity is somewhat limited by his just-ok footspeed and athleticism, weaknesses that may be exacerbated on the larger NBA court, but more often than not finds a way to be at the right place at the right time.
Total defense - 20/30
Developed some semblance of a 3-point shot as a senior, but unclear if he can extend it to NBA range with any consistency.
Interior offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 6/10
Nice combination of craftiness and athleticism in the paint, but not quite big enough to be a lob target at the NBA level, and not really crafty enough with the ball to get into the paint on his own.
Team offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 6/10
Selfless teammate willing to do all the little things to help his team win; fully embraces "glue guy" role. Intelligent passer with some limited ability to create, but errs very far on the side of being deliberate and conservative; not really an out-of-the-box thinker.
Total offense - 14/30
Perimeter defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 5/10
Shows good effort on the perimeter and has solid fundamentals, but doesn't have particularly quick feet or long arms. Forced to play off of ballhandlers to compensate, which negates his physicality and good hands.
Interior defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10
Strong and intelligent post defender; quality size for an NBA PF and plays bigger thanks to his quick reflexes on contests.
Team defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 7/10
High-IQ team defender who made it very difficult for opponents to get anything going inside. Innate creativity is somewhat limited by his just-ok footspeed and athleticism, weaknesses that may be exacerbated on the larger NBA court, but more often than not finds a way to be at the right place at the right time.
Total defense - 20/30
Pioneer10
Come home Sideshow Bob
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Is there a website with a draft projector just based on which college and euroleague stats project well into the NBA and of course adjusted for age?
I don't think Hollinger's draft rater is around anymore
I don't think Hollinger's draft rater is around anymore
I have one; only a small number of prospects at the moment, but can add more on request (within reason). thestepien.com also has a draft rater, which covers a larger subset of prospects.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h98LyhYUQHnGQTSMJTj3i_0Lj4iF03oHGeyDDtjWgV8/edit?usp=sharing
https://www.thestepien.com/player-distribution-tool/
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@Nathan S I appreciate the work you are putting in on this draft class.
I disagree pretty strongly on the order of the rankings, mainly based on the extrapolation of college stats, but I love seeing the work done.
As soon as this playoffs conclude, I'll meet you by the flagpole with my sleeves rolled up ready to scuffle for what I believe my eyes show me in the film of these prospects that I've seen throughout the past 24 months and what I am cramming now that they are in the crosshairs.
Great work in this thread all season though to both you and @3 Ball...GOT IT
I disagree pretty strongly on the order of the rankings, mainly based on the extrapolation of college stats, but I love seeing the work done.
As soon as this playoffs conclude, I'll meet you by the flagpole with my sleeves rolled up ready to scuffle for what I believe my eyes show me in the film of these prospects that I've seen throughout the past 24 months and what I am cramming now that they are in the crosshairs.
Great work in this thread all season though to both you and @3 Ball...GOT IT
How does Ayton compare to Embiid in your opinion? As far as I can tell...his ceiling seems to be something like a worse defensive version of Embiid without the moxie. I just don't understand how that could possibly be worth a top-5 pick in this draft.
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I watched about 3.5 Zona games (Sean Miller makes me want to scratch my eyes out) and I dont think he compares to what I saw from Embiid at KU. Bambaa compares a little more favorably with his development throughout the season. I think Ayton has the body but doesnt have the drive to impose his will. I watched the whole Texas A&M game and he wanted nothing to do with Tyler Davis and I was hoping he would take that challenge on both ends.
In general, dont like Ayton's approach to the game. Closest comp I can think of when watching him and his impact on a game is Derrick Coleman back at Cuse and then the early NJ years. Plays much harder with more impact on offensive side when he knows ball is coming than on D where he should be much better at impacting a game. Because he wants to be a perimeter player, he exerts alot more energy than he should so he looks tired alot out there when the ball isnt in his hands.
I do like his mastery of showing at the midpost and attacking from there.
Okobo bombing away with five 3's and counting in his first real playoff game (ignoring very brief cameos the last two years). Valiant effort going up against the #1 seed.
EDIT: Lol, 44 points, whaaaaat??? That's absolutely nuts for a 40-minute game. 8/11 from 3, 12/12 from the line. And they lost by 2.
EDIT: Lol, 44 points, whaaaaat??? That's absolutely nuts for a 40-minute game. 8/11 from 3, 12/12 from the line. And they lost by 2.
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3 Ball...GOT IT
#CediSZN
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Is their season over do you know? I literally can't keep up with all these European schedules, they make 0 sense to me lol.
I've been saying for months how much I love Okobo. I've had him #12 on my board for awhile as crazy as that sounds lol. I'm sold on him.
They squeaked into the playoffs as the 8th seed...pretty sure it's a 3 or 5 game series. Wouldn't be surprised if 44 points is a league record for a playoff game, or very close to it.