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2019 NBA Draft

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blommen said:
I don't hate the Larry Johnson comp in principal, but most of it obviously stems from the heavy frame and athletic ability. I do agree with his notes, honestly. I don't know, I get why people think Zion is a slam dunk prospect but I really don't like his lack of length and the non existent jump shot. It just seems like such a giant risk to me. While Barrett doesn't have the same ceilling as Zion I would frankly be much more confident drafting him than Zion.
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Are their floors much different though? There's maybe even a case that Barrett's floor is lower or more likely than Zion's too.

Inefficient ball handlers that struggle defensively are a dime-a-dozen.

When you're picking at the top of the draft, you have to go with the upside play more often than not imo. And that's without factoring in where each's floor is at.
 
3 Ball...GOT IT said:
Are their floors much different though? There's maybe even a case that Barrett's floor is lower or more likely than Zion's too.

Inefficient ball handlers that struggle defensively are a dime-a-dozen.

When you're picking at the top of the draft, you have to go with the upside play more often than not imo. And that's without factoring in where each's floor is at.
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Maybe you're right, I honestly think my big problem is that I just hate this draft, because I don't think there's anyone in the lottery who isn't a major gamble at the #1 pick. Zion is fascinating but his deficiensies scare the shit out of me, Barrett has everything you'd ideally want in a #1 pick but isn't showing anything close to it, Cam is getting lost in the shuffle and is tough to get a read on, Little has disappointed greatly, it just goes on and on.

It's like ordering menu item #58 at a chinese restaurant. You're not sure what you're going to get but you're pretty sure you're gonna be pissed off.
 
blommen said:
I don't hate the Larry Johnson comp in principal, but most of it obviously stems from the heavy frame and athletic ability. I do agree with his notes, honestly. I don't know, I get why people think Zion is a slam dunk prospect but I really don't like his lack of length and the non existent jump shot. It just seems like such a giant risk to me. While Barrett doesn't have the same ceilling as Zion I would frankly be much more confident drafting him than Zion.
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I don't completely disagree with his notes...I just think they're pretty vanilla and not particularly well done. If some RCF person had posted that, it probably would've gotten 2-3 likes, a disagree from someone who's sick and tired of the Barkley/Johnson comparison, and a quote from someone clarifying that Zion's not a hair over 6'7". @3 Ball...GOT IT 's scouting reports last year were better.
 
PJ Washington is averaging 3 blocks per game over his last four games. In fifteen games before that (dating back to last year), he averaged 0.3 blocks per game. Obviously if he keeps this up, it completely changes the story on him as a prospect...but what changed? @3 Ball...GOT IT
 
Nathan S said:
PJ Washington is averaging 3 blocks per game over his last four games. In fifteen games before that (dating back to last year), he averaged 0.3 blocks per game. Obviously if he keeps this up, it completely changes the story on him as a prospect...but what changed? @3 Ball...GOT IT
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Small sample sizes, but Washington has started to eat into some of EJ Montgomery's minutes lately.

I watched the UNC game and he guarded Maye alot, who spends most of the time inside the arc... so he was in help position and made a couple of blocks that way. I'm about to watch the Louisville game tonight.

I think he's a smart defender and has great strength 1-on-1, but isn't a great athlete in a crowd. So he gets caught just standing flat footed with his arms straight up at times around the rim on D... and bigger/athletic players will probably be able to get shots off over him without a ton of issue. Still don't have a feel for him overall as a defender because I've not watched enough, but I don't think the block numbers are a fluke at all.
 
3 Ball...GOT IT said:
Small sample sizes, but Washington has started to eat into some of EJ Montgomery's minutes lately.

I watched the UNC game and he guarded Maye alot, who spends most of the time inside the arc... so he was in help position and made a couple of blocks that way. I'm about to watch the Louisville game tonight.

I think he's a smart defender and has great strength 1-on-1, but isn't a great athlete in a crowd. So he gets caught just standing flat footed with his arms straight up at times around the rim on D... and bigger/athletic players will probably be able to get shots off over him without a ton of issue. Still don't have a feel for him overall as a defender because I've not watched enough, but I don't think the block numbers are a fluke at all.
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Basically showcases one of the limitations of purely statistical evaluations of prospects. The same player with a different role and (even slightly) different teammates can go from blocking a couple shots a month to blocking multiple shots every game. Need a keen eye to spot guys who're being limited by factors outside of their control rather than their own abilities.
 
Nathan S said:
Basically showcases one of the limitations of purely statistical evaluations of prospects. The same player with a different role and (even slightly) different teammates can go from blocking a couple shots a month to blocking multiple shots every game. Need a keen eye to spot guys who're being limited by factors outside of their control rather than their own abilities.
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I don't have enough experience with statistical models, but I think it'd be interested in trying to adjust how stl/blk rates affect a player's rating on your model once you've adjusted for a team's defensive scheme. Not sure how you'd be able to make that adjustment besides looking at a team's block and steal rates. I know Kentucky has a fairly low steal rate as a team.

Obviously a guy like Matisse Thybulle for example has inflated steals/blocks because his role is simply taking as many gambles as possible at the top of their zone. Other teams are more conservative too the other way. Maybe that could be affecting Keldon Johnson too?
 
3 Ball...GOT IT said:
I don't have enough experience with statistical models, but I think it'd be interested in trying to adjust how stl/blk rates affect a player's rating on your model once you've adjusted for a team's defensive scheme. Not sure how you'd be able to make that adjustment besides looking at a team's block and steal rates. I know Kentucky has a fairly low steal rate as a team.

Obviously a guy like Matisse Thybulle for example has inflated steals/blocks because his role is simply taking as many gambles as possible at the top of their zone. Other teams are more conservative too the other way. Maybe that could be affecting Keldon Johnson too?
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Would be interesting to see if it improves accuracy to use a player's fraction of team steals/blocks instead of simply their individual steals/blocks. Some guys like Jevon Carter last year and (gulp) Dion Waiters clearly had their steal numbers inflated by their teams' defensive schemes; my draft rater wouldn't have been quite so high on them if I used fraction of team steals instead. On the other hand, I would of course worry about unnecessarily hurting players who just happen to play alongside, e.g., a great shot blocker.
 
Updated statistical rankings. As before they're color-coded by tier in Jackson Hoy's top-100, so (roughly speaking) higher-profile guys will be in blue, green, and yellow, while sleepers will be in orange and red.

Pretty quiet week in general, with many teams inactive for the holidays. Morant feasted against DII Bethel, and Okeke notched a second consecutive 5-steal game to boost his rating. Ponds came back to earth a little as St John's suffered its first loss of the season.

CpImy.png
 
Nathan S said:
Updated statistical rankings. As before they're color-coded by tier in Jackson Hoy's top-100, so (roughly speaking) higher-profile guys will be in blue, green, and yellow, while sleepers will be in orange and red.

Pretty quiet week in general, with many teams inactive for the holidays. Morant feasted against DII Bethel, and Okeke notched a second consecutive 5-steal game to boost his rating. Ponds came back to earth a little as St John's suffered its first loss of the season.

CpImy.png
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I'd be curious to see how much Morant's rating would change if you eliminated all DII competition at the end of the year.

I'm sure it's a lot of work, but incorporating strength of schedule would really help out your model I'd think, even if there's not much effect on the majority of players.

I watched Okeke for the first time vs Murray State and wasn't overly impressed. Just one game, but I'd expect him to be more of a 2020 guy for sure. He's got good size, but doesn't move exceptionally well. And I'd expect him to be pretty much just a slightly below average catch and shoot guy on offense at the NBA level. I know the defensive end is where he's always rated highly, but one game isn't enough to get a feel for that. He was mostly off ball, and the majority of his steals were right place, right time type of instances. But you don't have his steal and block rates by accident, so I'll have to catch more of him at some point.
 
3 Ball...GOT IT said:
I'd be curious to see how much Morant's rating would change if you eliminated all DII competition at the end of the year.

I'm sure it's a lot of work, but incorporating strength of schedule would really help out your model I'd think, even if there's not much effect on the majority of players.

I watched Okeke for the first time vs Murray State and wasn't overly impressed. Just one game, but I'd expect him to be more of a 2020 guy for sure. He's got good size, but doesn't move exceptionally well. And I'd expect him to be pretty much just a slightly below average catch and shoot guy on offense at the NBA level. I know the defensive end is where he's always rated highly, but one game isn't enough to get a feel for that. He was mostly off ball, and the majority of his steals were right place, right time type of instances. But you don't have his steal and block rates by accident, so I'll have to catch more of him at some point.
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I like his versatility defensively a lot...he might be second only to Zion in that regard, among current college guys. He seems equally at home switching onto a guard on the perimeter or wedging himself against a center for rebounding position, though I agree he doesn't have the elite lateral quickness you typically associate with a defensive stopper. PJ Tucker vibes, maybe?

I lump him together with Grant Williams mentally...those two will probably never make All-Star games, but I fully expect them to be positive-impact roleplayers at the next level. They don't have the elite skills you look for in a lottery prospect, but they don't have any serious weaknesses that could derail them either. Would love to trade for a mid-late first rounder and pick one of them.
 
Nathan S said:
I like his versatility defensively a lot...he might be second only to Zion in that regard, among current college guys. He seems equally at home switching onto a guard on the perimeter or wedging himself against a center for rebounding position, though I agree he doesn't have the elite lateral quickness you typically associate with a defensive stopper. PJ Tucker vibes, maybe?

I lump him together with Grant Williams mentally...those two will probably never make All-Star games, but I fully expect them to be positive-impact roleplayers at the next level. They don't have the elite skills you look for in a lottery prospect, but they don't have any serious weaknesses that could derail them either. Would love to trade for a mid-late first rounder and pick one of them.
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Yeah, I'm not sure what to think of Grant Williams yet. Tough evaluation because he'd have to completely change roles in order to be successful in the NBA. And so much comes down to how well he shoots it. He reminds me a lot of Kenrich Williams honestly, which isn't worth a mid-first to me, even in this draft. NBA teams generally don't seem to be high on players like him either.

A good tourney run will do a lot for him though draft-wise. Also, I think Yves Pons could be the best prospect on their team long term.
 
3 Ball...GOT IT said:
Yeah, I'm not sure what to think of Grant Williams yet. Tough evaluation because he'd have to completely change roles in order to be successful in the NBA. And so much comes down to how well he shoots it. He reminds me a lot of Kenrich Williams honestly, which isn't worth a mid-first to me, even in this draft. NBA teams generally don't seem to be high on players like him either.

A good tourney run will do a lot for him though draft-wise. Also, I think Yves Pons could be the best prospect on their team long term.
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He's a full three years younger (just turned 20) than Kenrich was last year...that's the big difference there, for me. He's still on the steep part of the learning curve, whereas Williams was/is more of a finished product niche roleplayer.

Agree that he needs to shoot the 3 reliably to succeed at the next level. Clearly he has potential in that area, but the fact that he takes that shot so rarely makes you wonder...
 
blommen said:
I don't hate the Larry Johnson comp in principal, but most of it obviously stems from the heavy frame and athletic ability. I do agree with his notes, honestly. I don't know, I get why people think Zion is a slam dunk prospect but I really don't like his lack of length and the non existent jump shot. It just seems like such a giant risk to me. While Barrett doesn't have the same ceilling as Zion I would frankly be much more confident drafting him than Zion.
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I dunno -- the LJ comparison smacks to me of the typical comparing white guys to other white guys thing. LJ looked like a beast, but he was really a finesse guy often criticized for not being physical enough. His game, as opposed to his looks, is almost the opposite of Zion's.

Obviously, it would be better if Zion was longer, but I think his kind of exceptional athleticism/physicality translates well. Barkley is the better comparison, though Barkley was a better shooter. But the relevant point of comparison was that Barkley was only 6'5", but is the fifth leading all time offensive rebounder, and 14th in overall rebounding. And Barkley was playing in a age with a lot more true centers. In a generally undersized league...Zion should be a dominant rebounder.

He could be terrifying as a small-ball 5. A better rebounding, better defending TT who is an elite finisher and can actually shoot when within 10-12 feet from the hoop.
 
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