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2023-2024 Off-Season Thread II
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Peacedog
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Duncan is a douche. Mobley is already a top 5 defensive player and as good offensively as Horford was at his peak. He can suck it.Just listened to the 50-minute podcast with Fedor and Nate Duncan of NBA League Pass, who seems to really know his stuff when it comes to the NBA. It was essentially Fedor interviewing him. Some of the points that were made that caught my interest:
1. The regular season is mostly about strengths while the playoffs are mostly about weaknesses. Weaknesses get exploited more in the playoffs when teams have more time to prepare for opponents. Last year the Cavs had a lot of strengths but they also had a lot of weaknesses. (Fedor added that a scout once told him there are 82-game teams and 16-game teams. Last year the Cavs were a better 82-game team).
2. The Cavs were weak at rebounding and on-ball defense against the Knicks last year. That hasn't changed with the new acquisitions. Any improvement in those areas will have to be internal.
3. It helps to have "diversity" in the playoffs so you can take advantage of your opponents' vulnerabilities. The Cavs lacked diversity - they were stuck in a pick-and-roll offense. When the Knicks came up with a plan to defend it the Cavs couldn't adjust. They need more two-way players.
4. In the off-season the Cavs did as well as they could to improve the roster with limited resources. They should be better but it's a question of how much.
5. Fedor pointed out the Cavs had the third worst bench last year. With Strus expected to start at the 3 it pushes LeVert to the bench which should make the bench stronger. Duncan was skeptical; LeVert has always been below average in true shooting percentage and is maybe a little underqualified as a "third creator" behind DG and DM. But with more long range shooters around him like Strus and Niang it might open up the inside for LeVert to operate and that could help him.
6. As for the big question as to whether the Cavs are viable with Allen and Mobley playing together or if they should break up their core group, it looks like they may be forced to make it work. Duncan ranks Allen as the 10th best center in the league. You can't trade the 10th best center for the 10th best small forward, which is what the Cavs need. They have no tradable draft picks. It's going to come down to Mobley's development. They won't be able to move Allen for a similar value.
7. Fedor asked about Mobley's ceiling, pointing out that Tristan Thompson is already comparing him to Anthony Davis and assistant coach Greg Buckner calls him "HOF". Duncan thinks Mobley can be a top 10 to top 5 defender, but he'll never be at that level offensively. Mobley's offensive skills (dribbling, shooting) are not at the same level as AD or Kevin Garnett when they came into the league. Duncan sees him as more of an Al Horford offensively, but better defensively than Al. Mobley's ceiling is maybe the second best offensive player on a good team.
(Horford peaked at age 26-27 at about 18 points and 9 rebounds per game).
Duncan thinks Bam Adebayo might be the most similar player to Mobley. Fedor mentioned that Mobley has very ambitious goals for this season; Defensive Player of the Year and an All-Star selection. Also, Strus has had film cut-outs made of him and Bam working together to get open shots for Strus and sent them to Mobley to study.
8. Duncan has Milwaukee and Boston clearly ahead of the Cavs in a playoff series. The Knicks would be a toss-up. The Cavs are still missing a two-way player at small forward (Strus is a weak defender). Also, the Cavs' best player is not on the same level as Giannis, Embiid, or Jayson Tatum, so that would be a problem in a playoff series.
9. Ty Jerome, now a bigger factor with Rubio MIA, is a player who is limited athletically and has to be hidden on defense, although he can defend within a team concept. He can pass and shoot, however. He's a good fit with the Cavs and a good value for the money.
10. Fedor pointed out that Mitchell and Garland will be staggered so that one is on the court at all times. So if Jerome isn't working they could pair DM or DG with Strus or LeVert at the 2 (and I assume use Okoro at the 3).
11. Having Mobley and Allen on the court together allows the Cavs to get away with playing two 6'1" guards. This could factor into whether Mitchell decides to move on after his contract in Cleveland is up. Duncan's question is where would he go? Not many teams can play two small guards together (the Cavs are a unique situation in that way). Mitchell doesn't fit with Brunson in New York. If Mitchell leaves he would want to go to a better team, but what team will be better than the Cavs in two years that Mitchell would be a good fit with?
As for next off-season, what kind of offers would the Cavs get for Donovan with just one year left on his contract? If the offers aren't great they may decide to just go for it with Mitchell in '24-'25. A lot can happen in the NBA in a year so it's tough to make any predictions. Some of the top teams a year from now won't have the resources or cap space to trade for Mitchell or absorb his contract even if he was a fit with the rest of their personnel. Like the Cavs they've already used all their draft picks and cap space to get to where they are now.
My comment: Damian Lillard just got traded to Milwaukee so if it's clear that the Garland/Mitchell pairing isn't working by the end of this season I'm sure the Cavs can come up with a creative package to move him while getting a decent return.
12. Duncan says that if he knew how great a season Lauri Markkanen was going to have in Utah last year he would not have made the Mitchell trade.
What is success for Cavs this season? How high is Evan Mobley’s ceiling? Wine and Gold Talk Podcast
On the latest edition of the Wine and Gold Talk Podcast, Chris Fedor is joined by Nate Duncan of the Dunc'd On Podcast to preview the Cavs' season.www.cleveland.com
Any reevaluation of Bates after summer league and looking again at your metrics?
Cavatt
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And Horford averaged 11pts when he was Mobley's age. 4 years later at 26 he scored as much as Evan did last year.
Dr. Claw
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I don't understand why people are so down on Damian Jones. IMO he fits better than year 2023 TT. Mitchell Robinson, regardless of what happened in the playoffs, is closer to a Cody Zeller than JA is. Our team's lack of shooting doomed them more than anything else.
JBB should roll with Jones and see what it looks like before the season starts. Strus and Niang are still here.
JBB should roll with Jones and see what it looks like before the season starts. Strus and Niang are still here.
Cavatt
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His net rating has been positive for years. I think he can play with Mobley. They are going to let him shoot the corner 3 too
Dr. Claw
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along with Jerome, from a vision standpoint I liked the FO's decision making on that pickup. There is a way the Cavs will move that is different from seasons prior, and that's what we need to see
Just listened to the 50-minute podcast with Fedor and Nate Duncan of NBA League Pass, who seems to really know his stuff when it comes to the NBA. It was essentially Fedor interviewing him. Some of the points that were made that caught my interest:
1. The regular season is mostly about strengths while the playoffs are mostly about weaknesses. Weaknesses get exploited more in the playoffs when teams have more time to prepare for opponents. Last year the Cavs had a lot of strengths but they also had a lot of weaknesses. (Fedor added that a scout once told him there are 82-game teams and 16-game teams. Last year the Cavs were a better 82-game team).
2. The Cavs were weak at rebounding and on-ball defense against the Knicks last year. That hasn't changed with the new acquisitions. Any improvement in those areas will have to be internal.
3. It helps to have "diversity" in the playoffs so you can take advantage of your opponents' vulnerabilities. The Cavs lacked diversity - they were stuck in a pick-and-roll offense. When the Knicks came up with a plan to defend it the Cavs couldn't adjust. They need more two-way players.
4. In the off-season the Cavs did as well as they could to improve the roster with limited resources. They should be better but it's a question of how much.
5. Fedor pointed out the Cavs had the third worst bench last year. With Strus expected to start at the 3 it pushes LeVert to the bench which should make the bench stronger. Duncan was skeptical; LeVert has always been below average in true shooting percentage and is maybe a little underqualified as a "third creator" behind DG and DM. But with more long range shooters around him like Strus and Niang it might open up the inside for LeVert to operate and that could help him.
6. As for the big question as to whether the Cavs are viable with Allen and Mobley playing together or if they should break up their core group, it looks like they may be forced to make it work. Duncan ranks Allen as the 10th best center in the league. You can't trade the 10th best center for the 10th best small forward, which is what the Cavs need. They have no tradable draft picks. It's going to come down to Mobley's development. They won't be able to move Allen for a similar value.
7. Fedor asked about Mobley's ceiling, pointing out that Tristan Thompson is already comparing him to Anthony Davis and assistant coach Greg Buckner calls him "HOF". Duncan thinks Mobley can be a top 10 to top 5 defender, but he'll never be at that level offensively. Mobley's offensive skills (dribbling, shooting) are not at the same level as AD or Kevin Garnett when they came into the league. Duncan sees him as more of an Al Horford offensively, but better defensively than Al. Mobley's ceiling is maybe the second best offensive player on a good team.
(Horford peaked at age 26-27 at about 18 points and 9 rebounds per game).
Duncan thinks Bam Adebayo might be the most similar player to Mobley. Fedor mentioned that Mobley has very ambitious goals for this season; Defensive Player of the Year and an All-Star selection. Also, Strus has had film cut-outs made of him and Bam working together to get open shots for Strus and sent them to Mobley to study.
8. Duncan has Milwaukee and Boston clearly ahead of the Cavs in a playoff series. The Knicks would be a toss-up. The Cavs are still missing a two-way player at small forward (Strus is a weak defender). Also, the Cavs' best player is not on the same level as Giannis, Embiid, or Jayson Tatum, so that would be a problem in a playoff series.
9. Ty Jerome, now a bigger factor with Rubio MIA, is a player who is limited athletically and has to be hidden on defense, although he can defend within a team concept. He can pass and shoot, however. He's a good fit with the Cavs and a good value for the money.
10. Fedor pointed out that Mitchell and Garland will be staggered so that one is on the court at all times. So if Jerome isn't working they could pair DM or DG with Strus or LeVert at the 2 (and I assume use Okoro at the 3).
11. Having Mobley and Allen on the court together allows the Cavs to get away with playing two 6'1" guards. This could factor into whether Mitchell decides to move on after his contract in Cleveland is up. Duncan's question is where would he go? Not many teams can play two small guards together (the Cavs are a unique situation in that way). Mitchell doesn't fit with Brunson in New York. If Mitchell leaves he would want to go to a better team, but what team will be better than the Cavs in two years that Mitchell would be a good fit with?
As for next off-season, what kind of offers would the Cavs get for Donovan with just one year left on his contract? If the offers aren't great they may decide to just go for it with Mitchell in '24-'25. A lot can happen in the NBA in a year so it's tough to make any predictions. Some of the top teams a year from now won't have the resources or cap space to trade for Mitchell or absorb his contract even if he was a fit with the rest of their personnel. Like the Cavs they've already used all their draft picks and cap space to get to where they are now.
My comment: Damian Lillard just got traded to Milwaukee so if it's clear that the Garland/Mitchell pairing isn't working by the end of this season I'm sure the Cavs can come up with a creative package to move him while getting a decent return.
12. Duncan says that if he knew how great a season Lauri Markkanen was going to have in Utah last year he would not have made the Mitchell trade.
What is success for Cavs this season? How high is Evan Mobley’s ceiling? Wine and Gold Talk Podcast
On the latest edition of the Wine and Gold Talk Podcast, Chris Fedor is joined by Nate Duncan of the Dunc'd On Podcast to preview the Cavs' season.
Wow, this is great analysis. Very objective on our strengths and weaknesses (so no wonder it’s pissing people off here lol). Agree with most all of it, although not the Horford-Mobley comp which is weird (is there something about Mobley that makes people reach for strange comps?).
The “regular season is about strengths, the playoffs are about weaknesses” take is great - never thought of it that way before.
I'mWithDan
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The hardest part of the evaluation process are guys like Emoni. He has pedigree, performed well at a young age but then got to college and it was a total disaster. He has interesting measurables and skills but it is more a question of how hard he's going to work, how he's going to fit in to a team and how he handles success or failure initially.
The numbers are the numbers and with a lot of guys, I think you can take them more as gospel on their prospect outlook. With guys like Bates, it honestly feels like more of the spin of a roulette wheel. Is it likely he turns in a to a meaningful NBA player? No. Is it more likely than a typical guy in his range? Sure.
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I'mWithDan
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Me watching Mobley move on the floor:
Duncan watching Mobley move on the floor:
Cavatt
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He prob only watched the playoffs. I can understand being down on Mobley if that was all you saw.
For me seeing Mobley out of his depth for the first time against 3 hulks as a 2nd year player I'm not worried
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From everything I've heard Mobley has a burning desire to be great and the willingness to put in the work. I agree that his offensive ceiling is going to be higher than 18 ppg. If he ever develops a reliable jump hook and a consistent jumper from the elbow he'll be a monster.
One good sign is his points per shot attempt improved from 109.7 per 100 shots as a rookie to 118.2 last year. His effective field goal percentage was up by 4%.
Among big men his shooting percentage at the rim was 78%, putting him in the 87th percentile. But in the short mid-range area (4-14 feet) he made only 40% of his shots, putting him in the 32nd percentile. If he could improve his touch and accuracy in that short mid-range zone it would help his offensive game a lot.
One good sign is his points per shot attempt improved from 109.7 per 100 shots as a rookie to 118.2 last year. His effective field goal percentage was up by 4%.
Among big men his shooting percentage at the rim was 78%, putting him in the 87th percentile. But in the short mid-range area (4-14 feet) he made only 40% of his shots, putting him in the 32nd percentile. If he could improve his touch and accuracy in that short mid-range zone it would help his offensive game a lot.
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As I mentioned on the Mobley thread, Mobleys field goal percentage outside of three feet from the basket did not improve between his first and second year, which is concerning. It was 37% both years - not good. And that isn’t because he’s taking tougher shots - his three point percentage actually dropped significantly.
All of Mobley’s offensive improvement between his first and second years came from inside of three feet from the basket. He took more of those inside shots and made a higher percentage of them. He actually led the league in dunks last year, and they were a quarter of his made field goals.
if he is to improve as an offensive player, he needs to either figure out how to reliably score outside of three feet from the basket, or else improve dribble penetration so he gets to the basket effectively even more frequently than he already does (the Giannis solution - but Mobley isn’t built like Giannis).