2023-2024 Off-Season Thread II

[Benway]

Me watching Mobley move on the floor:


Duncan watching Mobley move on the floor:

Fun fact: those Springboks are Pronking.

 

[buzzdog]

Fun fact: those Springboks are Pronking.

 

[Cavatt]

As I mentioned on the Mobley thread, Mobleys field goal percentage outside of three feet from the basket did not improve between his first and second year, which is concerning. It was 37% both years - not good. And that isn’t because he’s taking tougher shots - his three point percentage actually dropped significantly.

All of Mobley’s offensive improvement between his first and second years came from inside of three feet from the basket. He took more of those inside shots and made a higher percentage of them. He actually led the league in dunks last year, and they were a quarter of his made field goals.

if he is to improve as an offensive player, he needs to either figure out how to reliably score outside of three feet from the basket, or else improve dribble penetration so he gets to the basket effectively even more frequently than he already does (the Giannis solution - but Mobley isn’t built like Giannis).

And I said, it did improve from 3-10, but got worse from 10-16.

So his shooting didn't improve from 10-16 feet. From 3-10 he went from 38 to 41% which is in fact an improvement.

36% from 10-16 sucks, but despite it bringing his % down, he only shot 12% of his shots from there. He's not great outside 10 feet yet. Very common for a 7 footer

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

And I said, it did improve from 3-10, but got worse from 10-16.

So his shooting didn't improve from 10-16 feet. From 3-10 he went from 38 to 41% which is in fact an improvement.

36% from 10-16 sucks, but despite it bringing his % down, he only shot 12% of his shots from there. He's not great outside 10 feet yet. Very common for a 7 footerView attachment 17442

Mobley has a big upside if he can develop that 3-10' shot, either a jump hook or a fallaway. I also like the little one-handed push shot from the middle of the lane that Isaiah Hartenstein uses when he gets a pass from the baseline. He gets it off quickly and it's very accurate.

I think the next step in Mobley's offensive development is to find a shot he can hit consistently in that 3-10' range, as well as developing a consistent jumper from both elbows.

After that it's the corner 3.

 

[cavsfever]

And I said, it did improve from 3-10, but got worse from 10-16.

So his shooting didn't improve from 10-16 feet. From 3-10 he went from 38 to 41% which is in fact an improvement.

36% from 10-16 sucks, but despite it bringing his % down, he only shot 12% of his shots from there. He's not great outside 10 feet yet. Very common for a 7 footerView attachment 17442

well, on a simple binominal calculation there's only about a 12% chance of random variation being responsible for those extra baskets from 3-10 feet, so perhaps it was a small improvement and not just chance. But 41% is very mediocre from that range for a big man. Bottom line is still that he needs a hook or jump shot of some kind or else to improve his penetration moves to take the cap off his offensive progress. We saw some intriguing flashes in games during the second half of last year and I hope they become a more regular thing this year.

 

[Dr No]

Mobley has a big upside if he can develop that 3-10' shot, either a jump hook or a fallaway. I also like the little one-handed push shot from the middle of the lane that Isaiah Hartenstein uses when he gets a pass from the baseline. He gets it off quickly and it's very accurate.

I think the next step in Mobley's offensive development is to find a shot he can hit consistently in that 3-10' range, as well as developing a consistent jumper from both elbows.

After that it's the corner 3.

He is so physically gifted that he really only needs 1 reliable, "go-to", shot beyond the dunk to become a high impact player.

 

[Cavatt]

well, on a simple binominal calculation there's only about a 12% chance of random variation being responsible for those extra baskets from 3-10 feet, so perhaps it was a small improvement and not just chance. But 41% is very mediocre from that range for a big man. Bottom line is still that he needs a hook or jump shot of some kind or else to improve his penetration moves to take the cap off his offensive progress. We saw some intriguing flashes in games during the second half of last year and I hope they become a more regular thing this year.

He needs to get better at shooting all around. FT shooting is the one I am most worried about. He left a lot of points on the table last year.

Yeah 41% isn't great. I'd love to see him get closer to 50%. Jarrett shoots at 51% out to 16. We should have had him shooting those more even though he missed some in that playoff series.

Still, we need to get Mobley reps

 

[Lee]

Wow, this is great analysis. Very objective on our strengths and weaknesses (so no wonder it’s pissing people off here lol). Agree with most all of it, although not the Horford-Mobley comp which is weird (is there something about Mobley that makes people reach for strange comps?).

The “regular season is about strengths, the playoffs are about weaknesses” take is great - never thought of it that way before.

I think the issue is Mobley is a unique player. He already is a top 5 defensive player with DPOY potential, maybe even 50/50 at this point on the DPOY. He isnt a classic defensive big man like Hakeem who would get you 4 blocks, its that Mobley has the potential to be maybe the best big man at guarding well...guards. Its so unique of a talent.

As for his offense. He has talent, but his shot is a work in progress and so is his post moves, but he is already good around the post (not great)...but he has elite length and athletic ability which is on the level of a Garnett so thus sometimes the comparison, but he hasnt shown Garnetts offensive ability that was evident early in Garnett's career.

Mobley's ceiling is still MVP, but chances are he becomes more of a top 20 and borderline top 10 player, not a Giannis or Garnett level, but like Garnett, I am sure Mobley will star in an Adam Sandler movie someday, that part is obvious.

 

[Deezus]

but Mobley isn’t built like Giannis).

...But it's also important to note that Giannis wasn't "built like Giannis" at Mobley's age either. He steadily put on muscle as he grew into his body. I'm not saying that Mobley can do the same, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. I've pointed out in the past that Giannis' age 21 season numbers were very similar (and in some categories worse) than Mobley's.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Athletic ranks each team by position. They include the second unit players. FWIW, here are the Cavs' rankings.

PG 13th
SG 1st (they mentioned LeVert as the backup to Mitchell)
SF 28th (with Strus as the starter and I assume they have Okoro as the backup)
PF 7th
C 8th

That's three positions in the top eight, another slightly above average, and one near the bottom. Maybe this is the Garland fan talking but I think the Cavs should be ranked somewhat higher than 13th out of 30 at the point guard position.

 

[Cavatt]

The Athletic ranks each team by position. They include the second unit players. FWIW, here are the Cavs' rankings.

PG 13th
SG 1st (they mentioned LeVert as the backup to Mitchell)
SF 28th (with Strus as the starter and I assume they have Okoro as the backup)
PF 7th
C 8th

That's three positions in the top eight, another slightly above average, and one near the bottom. Maybe this is the Garland fan talking but I think the Cavs should be ranked somewhat higher than 13th out of 30 at the point guard position.

I think it is just so hard to rank Pg's. Hardest position to rank. How do you compare a scoring pg with a great playmaking one? What about the bigger guys. Is Haliburton a PG, but Luka isn't? Darius is top 5 in playmaking. He is closer to 13 as a scorer I think.

 

[Deezus]

The Athletic ranks each team by position. They include the second unit players. FWIW, here are the Cavs' rankings.

PG 13th
SG 1st (they mentioned LeVert as the backup to Mitchell)
SF 28th (with Strus as the starter and I assume they have Okoro as the backup)
PF 7th
C 8th

That's three positions in the top eight, another slightly above average, and one near the bottom. Maybe this is the Garland fan talking but I think the Cavs should be ranked somewhat higher than 13th out of 30 at the point guard position.

For PG... off the top of my head:

Curry
Lillard
SGA
Haliburton
Trae Young
Harden
Jamal Murray
Brunson
Fox
Garland

This is my top 10... and I did NOT necessarily put them in order.

You've also got dudes like old man CP3, Dejounte Murray, Jrue Holiday, LaMelo Ball, Kyrie, VanVleet, etc who are right there in terms of impact/talent. It truly is a stacked position in the league.

 

[Lee]

...But it's also important to note that Giannis wasn't "built like Giannis" at Mobley's age either. He steadily put on muscle as he grew into his body. I'm not saying that Mobley can do the same, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. I've pointed out in the past that Giannis' age 21 season numbers were very similar (and in some categories worse) than Mobley's.

Its hard to take someone seriously about someone's future build when your Avatar is a picture of a chick built with a dick.

 

[Deezus]

Its hard to take someone seriously about someone's future build when you Avatar is a picture of a chick built with a dick.

Hey, if anything, Olga has taught us that people can change and become something more than what they were just a few years ago...


AKA: I think Mobley is thinking of getting tits.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm assuming they have Darius and Ty Jerome as our point guards, but when Darius gets a rest we could easily shift Donovan to PG and have LeVert as the backup 2 if JBB doesn't want to play Jerome. But that would leave Strus and Okoro as the 3's, so that position would be weaker then if it was Strus and LeVert. It comes down to whether you want to give more minutes to Jerome or Okoro. It depends on the opponent and whether you want offense or defense.

It's nice that Strus and LeVert can bounce back and forth between the 2 and 3 while both DG and DM can play point guard. There is a ton of flexibility at the 1-3 positions and it will be up to JBB to find out which combinations work the best.