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2023-2024 Cleveland Guardians Offseason Thread

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eChameleon said:
I'll be fascinated to see who Vogt picks as our opening day starter. Gonna go with the old standby of Bieber, or one of the younger kids? Maybe Bieber gets the home opener start?
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I feel like Bieber will get the opening day start... With TMac, Bibee, Williams and Allen being the rotation... If we go with 4 starters, I don't know if there is any days off... It will be like Gaddis getting a bullpen role keeping Allen stretched out in the minors...
 
sportscoach said:
I feel like Bieber will get the opening day start... With TMac, Bibee, Williams and Allen being the rotation... If we go with 4 starters, I don't know if there is any days off... It will be like Gaddis getting a bullpen role keeping Allen stretched out in the minors...
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4 off days only till May 16 (all in April), so shortest time between off days is 5-games at end of April (without rainouts). So no skipping in rotation really.
 
petes999 said:
4 off days only till May 16 (all in April), so shortest time between off days is 5-games at end of April (without rainouts). So no skipping in rotation really.
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So it's very possible they head up North with all 5 starters?
 
Bieber and McKenzie both throwing well. We'll have Bo catching from Opening Day. Rocchio is coming off a great winter ball season and Vogt singled him out as one of the young players he's most excited about. We'll also have Williams and Allen in the rotation from the start.

We won't have 19 starts from an injured Cal Quantrill (5.24 ERA), 18 starts from Battenfield, Syndergaard, and Giolito (5.19, 5.40, 7.14), 9 starts from Curry (5.24 as a starter), and 5 starts from Plesac (7.59).

That's 51 starts from pitchers with ERA's between roughly 5.2 and 7.6. McKenzie had a 5.06 ERA in his four starts. That adds up to one-third of the season started by pitchers with ERA's over 5.00.

Actually, Curry is still around so he could start some games, but it would be better if he pitched out of the bullpen where his ERA was 3.41. He got hit harder the second and third time he faced batters than the first.

If Curry doesn't start any games and McKenzie is back to his 2022 form that's 55 starts from pitchers with ERA's over 5.00 that will now be taken by some combination of Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, and Allen. It's not realistic to think all five will make every start, so our 6th and 7th starters will make some starts, hopefully not many.

The Guardians' starters tied for 8th in the majors last year in ERA at 4.09, despite 55 starts from pitchers with ERA's over 5.00. This year there's every reason to think that number will go down.

There's a lot to get excited about. In addition, if young guys like Arias, Freeman, Rocchio, Florial, Bo Naylor, Manzardo, Williams, Bibee, Allen, and Herrin take the next step in their development, or even a few of them, even more to get excited about.

Worse case scenario is we have Kwan, Laureano, and Brennan as our every day outfield. That's below average offensively, but not horrible.

Can't wait to see a healthy rotation of Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, and Allen plus some combination of Rocchio, Freeman, Florial, Arias, and Manzardo at SS and OF. That team could shock a lot of people similar to what the Cavaliers are doing.

The Cavs' success is based on defense; the Guardians could have a lot of success in a weak division this year with great starting pitching and a bounce back year by some young guys in the bullpen, mainly Clase and Stephan.
 
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Wham with the Right Hand said:
Bieber and McKenzie both throwing well. We'll have Bo catching from Opening Day. Rocchio is coming off a great winter ball season and Vogt singled him out as one of the young players he's most excited about. We'll also have Williams and Allen in the rotation from the start.

We won't have 19 starts from an injured Cal Quantrill (5.24 ERA), 18 starts from Battenfield, Syndergaard, and Giolito (5.19, 5.40, 7.14), 9 starts from Curry (5.24 as a starter), and 5 starts from Plesac (7.59).

That's 51 starts from pitchers with ERA's between roughly 5.2 and 7.6. McKenzie had a 5.06 ERA in his four starts. That adds up to one-third of the season started by pitchers with ERA's over 5.00.

Actually, Curry is still around so he could start some games, but it would be better if he pitched out of the bullpen where his ERA was 3.41. He got hit harder the second and third time he faced batters than the first.

If Curry doesn't start any games and McKenzie is back to his 2022 form that's 55 starts from pitchers with ERA's over 5.00 that will now be taken by some combination of Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, and Allen. It's not realistic to think all five will make every start, so our 6th and 7th starters will make some starts, hopefully not many.

The Guardians' starters tied for 8th in the majors last year in ERA at 4.09, despite 55 starts from pitchers with ERA's over 5.00. This year there's every reason to think that number will go down.

There's a lot to get excited about. In addition, if young guys like Arias, Freeman, Rocchio, Florial, Bo Naylor, Manzardo, Williams, Bibee, Allen, and Herrin take the next step in their development, or even a few of them, even more to get excited about.

Worse case scenario is we have Kwan, Laureano, and Brennan as our every day outfield. That's below average offensively, but not horrible.

Can't wait to see a healthy rotation of Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, and Allen plus some combination of Rocchio, Freeman, Florial, Arias, and Manzardo at SS and OF. That team could shock a lot of people similar to what the Cavaliers are doing.

The Cavs' success is based on defense; the Guardians could have a lot of success in a weak division this year with great starting pitching and a bounce back year by some young guys in the bullpen, mainly Clase and Stephan.
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Unless you think Curry's development ended last season I'd hesitate to use those numbers against him just yet.

An OF of Kwan, Laureano and Brennan is below league average...again. We need a guy or 2 that can hit the ball over the wall frequently. Thing is, I firmly believe that they have in house solutions to that problem. Still wouldn't mind a big RHH addition, but I'm aware of how unlikely that is to happen.

I don't want to have to rely on great starting pitching and BP bounce backs. A large reason they had downturns last season was overuse and the lack of run support.
 
CDAV45 said:
Unless you think Curry's development ended last season I'd hesitate to use those numbers against him just yet.

An OF of Kwan, Laureano and Brennan is below league average...again. We need a guy or 2 that can hit the ball over the wall frequently. Thing is, I firmly believe that they have in house solutions to that problem. Still wouldn't mind a big RHH addition, but I'm aware of how unlikely that is to happen.

I don't want to have to rely on great starting pitching and BP bounce backs. A large reason they had downturns last season was overuse and the lack of run support.
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I'm confident the run support will improve. Last year the Guardians finished 27th in WAR at catcher and shortstop, per baseballreference.com. Bo Naylor had a 1.113 OPS over his last six weeks. I'm not saying he'll come anywhere near that for a full season, but whatever he contributes will be a huge improvement over last year. For the entire season Naylor's OPS was .809.

Catchers not named Bo Naylor or David Fry hit a combined .155 with 3 HR's and 18 RBI's in 284 AB's - about half a season. Naylor had 11 HR's and 32 RBI's in just 198 AB's, and that's including the time it took him to start hitting.

Naylor hit .237/.809 while Fry, as a catcher, hit .342/1.142 in 38 AB's. Fry hit as many HR's in 38 at-bats as a catcher as Gallagher, Zunino, Haase, Collins, and Viloria hit in 284 AB's.

I think there's a chance Naylor has 3 homers and 18 RBI's by the end of April (30 games).

As for shortstop, I'm confident whoever they play there will outhit Amed Rosario (.265/.675 and an OBP of .306 from the 2-hole) and Arias (.210/.628). Either Arias will hit much better this year or they'll replace him with Rocchio or Freeman.

The next worst positions in terms of WAR were CF and RF where we ranked 25th and 26th. I'm hopeful that Florial and either a Brennan/Laureano platoon or later on somebody like Valera or Freeman will improve on that production, but there's no guarantee. No young outfielder came up last year and hit like Bo Naylor over the last stretch of the season.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
I'm confident the run support will improve. Last year the Guardians finished 27th in WAR at catcher and shortstop, per baseballreference.com. Bo Naylor had a 1.113 OPS over his last six weeks. I'm not saying he'll come anywhere near that for a full season, but whatever he contributes will be a huge improvement over last year. For the entire season Naylor's OPS was .809.

Catchers not named Bo Naylor or David Fry hit a combined .155 with 3 HR's and 18 RBI's in 284 AB's - about half a season. Naylor had 11 HR's and 32 RBI's in just 198 AB's, and that's including the time it took him to start hitting.

Naylor hit .237/.809 while Fry, as a catcher, hit .342/1.142 in 38 AB's. Fry hit as many HR's in 38 at-bats as a catcher as Gallagher, Zunino, Haase, Collins, and Viloria hit in 284 AB's.

I think there's a chance Naylor has 3 homers and 18 RBI's by the end of April (30 games).

As for shortstop, I'm confident whoever they play there will outhit Amed Rosario (.265/.675 and an OBP of .306 from the 2-hole) and Arias (.210/.628). Either Arias will hit much better this year or they'll replace him with Rocchio or Freeman.

The next worst positions in terms of WAR were CF and RF where we ranked 25th and 26th. I'm hopeful that Florial and either a Brennan/Laureano platoon or later on somebody like Valera or Freeman will improve on that production, but there's no guarantee. No young outfielder came up last year and hit like Bo Naylor over the last stretch of the season.
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The run support should improve, but if it were me I wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo. All 3 OF positions could use an upgrade. I believe Florial could be a huge improvement over Straw. If Rodriguez shows his offense can translate then he certainly helps. Will Valera or DeLauter make their way? How will they use Brito? I don't believe for one second that DDLS will be on the 26 man. Anyway, if it were put on my lap to construct the OF I would be hoping to leave camp with Kwan in LF, Florial in CF, Rodriguez in RF and Laureano as the 4th OFer. If they can get a haul for Kwan then I'd move him. Would love to see a big RH bat added, but I know that's a pipedream.
 
Kwan will be 26 for all but the last month of this season. He's moving into the prime of his career and says he's working on being more aggressive and ambushing pitches he can drive. He's also a Gold Glove left fielder and the only natural leadoff hitter on the team.

I say we figure out CF and RF and then see if we need an upgrade in LF.

Last year Kwan played in 158 games and had over 700 plate appearances. I think Tito wore him out, which could be why his numbers were down from his rookie year. I hope Vogt gives him some days off occasionally.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
Kwan will be 26 for all but the last month of this season. He's moving into the prime of his career and says he's working on being more aggressive and ambushing pitches he can drive. He's also a Gold Glove left fielder and the only natural leadoff hitter on the team.

I say we figure out CF and RF and then see if we need an upgrade in LF.

Last year Kwan played in 158 games and had over 700 plate appearances. I think Tito wore him out, which could be why his numbers were down from his rookie year. I hope Vogt gives him some days off occasionally.
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Actually what's funny about Kwan is his xBA in 22 was like .260ish but his xBA in 23 was like .280ish... It was more bad luck and the OF shifting than Kwan actually regressing... The OF shaded him in and towards the line which is an area he hit the ball to a lot...
 
sportscoach said:
Actually what's funny about Kwan is his xBA in 22 was like .260ish but his xBA in 23 was like .280ish... It was more bad luck and the OF shifting than Kwan actually regressing... The OF shaded him in and towards the line which is an area he hit the ball to a lot...
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Kwan hit a ton of bloop doubles down the line in his rookie season. Hopefully he can adjust back to defense and pitching. If he can produce a 750OPS with some pop he'd be a fine long term starter.
 
sportscoach said:
Actually what's funny about Kwan is his xBA in 22 was like .260ish but his xBA in 23 was like .280ish... It was more bad luck and the OF shifting than Kwan actually regressing... The OF shaded him in and towards the line which is an area he hit the ball to a lot...
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Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and call bs on the "bad luck". When you don't hit the ball hard you don't have "good luck". He's a damn fine leadoff hitter so I'm good with him in LF if CF and RF have a good amount of power. Like I said in the prior post, I'd have him as my LFer, but if somebody come offering a haul I'd move him. Small ball is for pussies.
 
PocketMonger said:
Kwan hit a ton of bloop doubles down the line in his rookie season. Hopefully he can adjust back to defense and pitching. If he can produce a 750OPS with some pop he'd be a fine long term starter.
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I think a .750 OPS from Kwan is very unlikely. The league knows him and I'm sure they're aware of his lack of power everywhere except for down and in. Hell, I know it so you know they know it. You think they'll look to go to his strength or away from it?
 
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