Joel
Chair, Kid Congo Fan Club
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Much of the discussion on RCF these days centers on possible trades we might make this summer. I ran the salary cap numbers for the Cavs in the summer of 2010, based on the potential trades that are being considered.
I included the following assumptions:
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $46.58M
PROJECTION - CURRENT 2010 CAVS ROSTER, BUT WITH A 2009 MLE SIGNING ONLY
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
2009 MLE Signing - $6M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $52.58M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / SHAQ TRADE
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $46.58M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / CHANDLER-POSEY TRADE
LeBron James - $17.15M
Tyson Chandler - $13.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
James Posey - $6.48M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $66.21M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC-BOOBIE-JJ / AK-47-BOOZER TRADE
ASSUMPTION: Boozer signs a contract starting at $12.67M in 2009-2010, projecting to a 2010-2011 cap number of about $14M.
Andrei Kirilenko - $17.82M
LeBron James - $17.15M
Carlos Boozer - $14M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $72.86M
PROJECTION - WALLACE / VINCE CARTER TRADE
Vince Carter - $17.52M
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $64.07M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / JEFFERSON-VILLANUEVA TRADE
ASSUMPTION: Villanueva signs a contract starting at $7M in 2009-2010, structured in a way in which I guesstimate a 2010-2011 cap number of about $7.5M.
LeBron James - $17.15M
Richard Jefferson - $15.20M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Charlie Villanueva - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $69.28M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / KAMAN-CAMBY TRADE
LeBron James - $17.15M
Chris Kaman - $11.3M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $57.88M
SOURCE FOR SALARIES
ANALYSIS
I previously discussed the projected salary cap for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 here.
It should be quite clear that the only way in which we will have any salary cap room in the summer of 2010 is to take on players with expiring contracts this summer - Shaquille O'Neal, Marcus Camby, Mike Miller, etc. Any acquisition of any player with a significant multi-year contract means that we will not have money available in the 2010 free agent market. Even if we simply sign a player in 2009 for the MLE, we will likely not have enough money under the salary cap to be significant players in the 2010 free agent market.
It is in this context that one can see the point of the Shaquille O'Neal trade discussions. If the Wallace-Pavlovic / Shaq trade happens, it is a clear signal from management that we will try to be players in the 2010 free agent market. A trade for Shaq would be followed by a one-year MLE offer to a veteran, such as Rasheed Wallace or Jason Kidd. Management would be saying that our best chance to be competitive in 2009-2010 while still maintaining salary cap flexibility in 2010 would be to add a Shaq-Sheed combination.
On the other hand, if management opts instead for a trade for a player with a multi-year contract, then they anticipate that the player(s) they received in the trade is anything that they could receive in the free agent market this summer.
If any other (reasonable) trades are floated, I'll crunch those numbers later...
Our only means of maintaining salary cap flexibility next summer is to acquire expiring contracts only now. I'm not arguing for or against either strategy here; I'm simply crunching the numbers, in the context of what Ferry/management is probably thinking right now. Make of that what you will, in your trade discussions.
I included the following assumptions:
- I assume that we re-sign LeBron James. Obviously, the point of this exercise is to examine what our roster might look like on the assumption that LBJ stays.
- I project that the Cavs will re-sign Andy, and that his salary will be $7.5M in 2010. This represents what would seem to be a median projection.
- I assume that we pick up the 2010 option-years for Delonte West, J.J. Hickson, and Darnell Jackson.
- We will have another first-round pick in 2009, and I guesstimate a salary for him of $0.85M.
- I do not include second-round picks either from 2009 or 2010, figuring that these players will have salaries close to the minimum salary anyways. Keep in mind that we will have a few salary cap holds that will cut into our cap room under each of these scenarios, too.
- If we assign a player to a multi-year MLE contract this summer, then we will need to include another salary of about $6M for 2010.
- Keep in mind too that if we re-sign Z for anything more than the veterans' minimum for 2010, his number will be included as well. To get to these salary cap numbers, we would have to renounce Z. If we do not renounce Z, he will have a large cap hold until he signs a contract.
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $46.58M
PROJECTION - CURRENT 2010 CAVS ROSTER, BUT WITH A 2009 MLE SIGNING ONLY
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
2009 MLE Signing - $6M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $52.58M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / SHAQ TRADE
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $46.58M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / CHANDLER-POSEY TRADE
LeBron James - $17.15M
Tyson Chandler - $13.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
James Posey - $6.48M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $66.21M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC-BOOBIE-JJ / AK-47-BOOZER TRADE
ASSUMPTION: Boozer signs a contract starting at $12.67M in 2009-2010, projecting to a 2010-2011 cap number of about $14M.
Andrei Kirilenko - $17.82M
LeBron James - $17.15M
Carlos Boozer - $14M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $72.86M
PROJECTION - WALLACE / VINCE CARTER TRADE
Vince Carter - $17.52M
LeBron James - $17.15M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $64.07M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / JEFFERSON-VILLANUEVA TRADE
ASSUMPTION: Villanueva signs a contract starting at $7M in 2009-2010, structured in a way in which I guesstimate a 2010-2011 cap number of about $7.5M.
LeBron James - $17.15M
Richard Jefferson - $15.20M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Charlie Villanueva - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $69.28M
PROJECTION - WALLACE-PAVLOVIC / KAMAN-CAMBY TRADE
LeBron James - $17.15M
Chris Kaman - $11.3M
Maurice Williams - $9.30M
Anderson Varejao - $7.5M
Delonte West - $4.50M
Boobie Gibson - $4.02M
J.J. Hickson - $1.53M
2009 1st round pick - $0.89M
Darnell Jackson - $0.85M
2010 1st round pick - $0.85M
TOTAL - $57.88M
SOURCE FOR SALARIES
ANALYSIS
I previously discussed the projected salary cap for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 here.
It should be quite clear that the only way in which we will have any salary cap room in the summer of 2010 is to take on players with expiring contracts this summer - Shaquille O'Neal, Marcus Camby, Mike Miller, etc. Any acquisition of any player with a significant multi-year contract means that we will not have money available in the 2010 free agent market. Even if we simply sign a player in 2009 for the MLE, we will likely not have enough money under the salary cap to be significant players in the 2010 free agent market.
It is in this context that one can see the point of the Shaquille O'Neal trade discussions. If the Wallace-Pavlovic / Shaq trade happens, it is a clear signal from management that we will try to be players in the 2010 free agent market. A trade for Shaq would be followed by a one-year MLE offer to a veteran, such as Rasheed Wallace or Jason Kidd. Management would be saying that our best chance to be competitive in 2009-2010 while still maintaining salary cap flexibility in 2010 would be to add a Shaq-Sheed combination.
On the other hand, if management opts instead for a trade for a player with a multi-year contract, then they anticipate that the player(s) they received in the trade is anything that they could receive in the free agent market this summer.
If any other (reasonable) trades are floated, I'll crunch those numbers later...
Our only means of maintaining salary cap flexibility next summer is to acquire expiring contracts only now. I'm not arguing for or against either strategy here; I'm simply crunching the numbers, in the context of what Ferry/management is probably thinking right now. Make of that what you will, in your trade discussions.