-
Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.
2014 Off-Season Thread
- Thread starter AZ_
- Start date
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
IBI took a look at possible free agent hitters for the Tribe.
Corey Hart and Justin Morneau seem to be the most realistic options.
Wouldn't be shocked to see Youk come to Cleveland with his connections to Tito and the Indians' interest last offseason.
Corey Hart and Justin Morneau seem to be the most realistic options.
Wouldn't be shocked to see Youk come to Cleveland with his connections to Tito and the Indians' interest last offseason.
AZ_
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2007
- Messages
- 40,728
- Reaction score
- 51,466
- Points
- 148
Until I believe that Nick Swisher can play everyday RF again, I don't see 1B like Morneau as much of an option.
I think a David Murphy/Ryan Raburn platoon in right field presents a pretty decent option, IMO.
None of those other guys seem like much of a fit, unless again, Swisher is an everyday option in right.
I think a David Murphy/Ryan Raburn platoon in right field presents a pretty decent option, IMO.
None of those other guys seem like much of a fit, unless again, Swisher is an everyday option in right.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
Hoynes says "no chance" the Indians offer Jimenez a multi-year deal. He also seems to question if they should extend a qualifying offer. To me, it's a no-brainer. If he accepts, you get him for another year without the long-term commitment. If he declines, you get a 1st round pick.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
IBI with a full write-up on the Hart possibility:
If Milwaukee doesn't retain him, I really see the Indians as a perfect fit. He could be the type of power bat that could really shape out this lineup.
If Milwaukee doesn't retain him, I really see the Indians as a perfect fit. He could be the type of power bat that could really shape out this lineup.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
As this Danny Knobler column illustrates, the Cardinals have a wealth of good pitching. I continue to see them as an ideal trade candidate this offseason.
ST. LOUIS -- The question to a Cardinals official was a simple one.
I wasn't asking for names. I wasn't asking for secrets. I only wanted to know if he had an idea in mind of what the Cardinals rotation would look like on opening day 2014.
"I couldn't even begin to guess," he said.
He said it not with a groan, but with a smile. This isn't bad news for the Cardinals. It's great news.
They aren't stumped because they worry they'll have too few candidates to fill out a rotation. They're stumped because they know they'll have too many.
In a world where the Giants felt they have no choice but to give Tim Lincecum $35 million for two years, because they worried that it would be too hard to replace him, the Cardinals believe they could have as many as 10 quality pitchers who they could consider for the rotation next spring.
Who else has depth like that? Who else has problems like that?
"Nice problem to have," pitching coach Derek Lilliquist said with a grin, after three of the youngest Cardinals combined to beat the Red Sox in Game 2 of the World Series.
And that's the thing, of course. It's not just that the Cardinals have plenty of pitchers. It's that they have plenty of very good pitchers -- very good young pitchers, like Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, the three guys aged 22, 22 and 23 who combined to allow the Red Sox two runs on four hits Thursday night.
Lilliquist acknowledged that Martinez and Rosenthal, the Cardinals setup man and closer this October, could both be considered as starters next year. There are those in the organization who believe Rosenthal profiles better as a starter than Martinez, even though he has yet to start a big-league game and has excelled out of the bullpen (and Rosenthal is said to like the idea of starting).
"We're giving them high-leverage roles right now," Lilliquist said. "And we'll see what spring training brings."
The Cardinals would hardly be the first team to consider turning a successful closer into a starter. The Reds tried it each of the last two springs with Aroldis Chapman (and considering that new manager Bryan Price was one of the biggest proponents of the idea, it would hardly be a surprise if they try again).
It makes perfect sense, if you're just considering pure value. Even the best closer on the free-agent market would be lucky to get $10 million a year. Try finding a solid starting pitcher for that.
One American League general manager said recently that a pitcher only needs to profile as a No. 3 starter -- or maybe even a No. 4 -- before it makes more sense to start him than to put him in the bullpen.
In a pure value sense, the Cardinals could justify starting Rosenthal, Martinez -- and perhaps left-hander Kevin Siegrist as well.
All three started at times in the minor leagues. Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak says Martinez could maintain his 97-99 mph velocity into the late innings of minor-league starts (and in his one big-league start, his 92nd pitch was clocked at 99 mph).
"I think he's someone who should come to camp ready to start," Mozeliak said.
But will there be a spot for him? Will there be any room for Rosenthal, if he wants to start and the Cardinals want to try him there?
"I'm certainly not going to sit here in October and tell someone like Trevor Rosenthal or Kevin Siegrist that they can't start," Mozeliak said. "But they can see the competition. You're only going to have five starters, and you're going to have seven relievers.
"If you take a real quick snapshot of the St. Louis Cardinals, it doesn't appear that there will be a whole lot of vacancies in the rotation."
Some rival officials have wondered whether the Cardinals might want to trade some of those young pitchers, perhaps even for someone like local kid Max Scherzer, who will likely win the American League Cy Young but could be dealt by the Tigers.
But why would the Cardinals need to do that? It seems to have worked out pretty well when they went with the kids this year. They are in the World Series, after all.
So about that 2014 rotation, assuming no deals for anyone like Scherzer . . .
It's fairly clear that Adam Wainwright will be starting. The way Wacha has pitched in this postseason, it seems fairly safe to say he'll have a spot, too.
And after that?
Shelby Miller won 15 games this year with a 3.06 ERA, but has been a little-used long reliever this October. Joe Kelly had a 2.28 ERA in his 15 regular-season starts, and started Game 1 against the Dodgers. Lance Lynn is in the postseason rotation (although some think he'll be the odd man out and could be traded).
Oh, and Jaime Garcia, who has been a full-time starter when healthy and threw seven shutout innings in Game 2 of the 2011 World Series, is due back from shoulder surgery.
Rosenthal has proven he can close games, and perhaps the Cardinals could decide that he's needed more right now in the bullpen. But Jason Motte, who led the National League with 42 saves in 2012, is due back from Tommy John surgery.
The Cardinals will have options, and they will have competition. They've always loved the idea of going to spring training with a spot or two open, of giving young players an opportunity but telling them they need to earn a spot.
They'll have competition next spring, almost without doubt.
I couldn't begin to guess how it will play out. Neither could they.
They have several options to start:
Wainwright
Wacha
Kelly
Miller
Lynn
Garcia
Martinez
Rosenthal
Even if they keep Rosenthal in the bullpen, that's still 7 quality starting options for 2014.
Speaking of the Cardinals, I'd keep my eye on Jake Westbrook, who will be a free agent this offseason. He enjoyed being an Indian and Cleveland brass loved Jake. I could definitely see him as a cheap option for the Indians' annual "cheap veteran SP" signing.
ST. LOUIS -- The question to a Cardinals official was a simple one.
I wasn't asking for names. I wasn't asking for secrets. I only wanted to know if he had an idea in mind of what the Cardinals rotation would look like on opening day 2014.
"I couldn't even begin to guess," he said.
He said it not with a groan, but with a smile. This isn't bad news for the Cardinals. It's great news.
They aren't stumped because they worry they'll have too few candidates to fill out a rotation. They're stumped because they know they'll have too many.
In a world where the Giants felt they have no choice but to give Tim Lincecum $35 million for two years, because they worried that it would be too hard to replace him, the Cardinals believe they could have as many as 10 quality pitchers who they could consider for the rotation next spring.
Who else has depth like that? Who else has problems like that?
"Nice problem to have," pitching coach Derek Lilliquist said with a grin, after three of the youngest Cardinals combined to beat the Red Sox in Game 2 of the World Series.
And that's the thing, of course. It's not just that the Cardinals have plenty of pitchers. It's that they have plenty of very good pitchers -- very good young pitchers, like Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, the three guys aged 22, 22 and 23 who combined to allow the Red Sox two runs on four hits Thursday night.
Lilliquist acknowledged that Martinez and Rosenthal, the Cardinals setup man and closer this October, could both be considered as starters next year. There are those in the organization who believe Rosenthal profiles better as a starter than Martinez, even though he has yet to start a big-league game and has excelled out of the bullpen (and Rosenthal is said to like the idea of starting).
"We're giving them high-leverage roles right now," Lilliquist said. "And we'll see what spring training brings."
The Cardinals would hardly be the first team to consider turning a successful closer into a starter. The Reds tried it each of the last two springs with Aroldis Chapman (and considering that new manager Bryan Price was one of the biggest proponents of the idea, it would hardly be a surprise if they try again).
It makes perfect sense, if you're just considering pure value. Even the best closer on the free-agent market would be lucky to get $10 million a year. Try finding a solid starting pitcher for that.
One American League general manager said recently that a pitcher only needs to profile as a No. 3 starter -- or maybe even a No. 4 -- before it makes more sense to start him than to put him in the bullpen.
In a pure value sense, the Cardinals could justify starting Rosenthal, Martinez -- and perhaps left-hander Kevin Siegrist as well.
All three started at times in the minor leagues. Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak says Martinez could maintain his 97-99 mph velocity into the late innings of minor-league starts (and in his one big-league start, his 92nd pitch was clocked at 99 mph).
"I think he's someone who should come to camp ready to start," Mozeliak said.
But will there be a spot for him? Will there be any room for Rosenthal, if he wants to start and the Cardinals want to try him there?
"I'm certainly not going to sit here in October and tell someone like Trevor Rosenthal or Kevin Siegrist that they can't start," Mozeliak said. "But they can see the competition. You're only going to have five starters, and you're going to have seven relievers.
"If you take a real quick snapshot of the St. Louis Cardinals, it doesn't appear that there will be a whole lot of vacancies in the rotation."
Some rival officials have wondered whether the Cardinals might want to trade some of those young pitchers, perhaps even for someone like local kid Max Scherzer, who will likely win the American League Cy Young but could be dealt by the Tigers.
But why would the Cardinals need to do that? It seems to have worked out pretty well when they went with the kids this year. They are in the World Series, after all.
So about that 2014 rotation, assuming no deals for anyone like Scherzer . . .
It's fairly clear that Adam Wainwright will be starting. The way Wacha has pitched in this postseason, it seems fairly safe to say he'll have a spot, too.
And after that?
Shelby Miller won 15 games this year with a 3.06 ERA, but has been a little-used long reliever this October. Joe Kelly had a 2.28 ERA in his 15 regular-season starts, and started Game 1 against the Dodgers. Lance Lynn is in the postseason rotation (although some think he'll be the odd man out and could be traded).
Oh, and Jaime Garcia, who has been a full-time starter when healthy and threw seven shutout innings in Game 2 of the 2011 World Series, is due back from shoulder surgery.
Rosenthal has proven he can close games, and perhaps the Cardinals could decide that he's needed more right now in the bullpen. But Jason Motte, who led the National League with 42 saves in 2012, is due back from Tommy John surgery.
The Cardinals will have options, and they will have competition. They've always loved the idea of going to spring training with a spot or two open, of giving young players an opportunity but telling them they need to earn a spot.
They'll have competition next spring, almost without doubt.
I couldn't begin to guess how it will play out. Neither could they.
They have several options to start:
Wainwright
Wacha
Kelly
Miller
Lynn
Garcia
Martinez
Rosenthal
Even if they keep Rosenthal in the bullpen, that's still 7 quality starting options for 2014.
Speaking of the Cardinals, I'd keep my eye on Jake Westbrook, who will be a free agent this offseason. He enjoyed being an Indian and Cleveland brass loved Jake. I could definitely see him as a cheap option for the Indians' annual "cheap veteran SP" signing.
CornerThree
13-7-9-14
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2005
- Messages
- 4,812
- Reaction score
- 1,274
- Points
- 113
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
MLBTR took a look at one of our two key Central Rivals:
The Royals came close to a playoff berth for the first time in decades in 2013, but major questions surround their rotation heading into the offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
Alex Gordon, LF: $24MM through 2015
Jeremy Guthrie, SP: $20MM through 2015
Billy Butler, DH: $9MM through 2015
Alcides Escobar, SS: $6.5 MM through 2015
Salvador Perez, C: $5.25MM through 2016
Wade Davis, RP: $4.8MM through 2014
Noel Arguelles, SP: $1.38MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible
Luke Hochevar, SP (5.151): $5MM
Greg Holland, CL (3.028): $4.9MM
Eric Hosmer, 1B (2.146, Super Two): $4.1MM
Emilio Bonifacio, UT (5.066): $3.3MM
Felipe Paulino, SP (5.163): $3MM
Aaron Crow, RP (3.0): $1.9MM
Chris Getz, 2B (5.033): $1.3MM
George Kottaras, C (4.149): $1.2MM
Justin Maxwell, RF (3.027): $1.2MM
Tim Collins, RP (3.0): $1MM
Luis Mendoza, SP (3.063): $1MM
Brett Hayes, C (3.018): $900K
Contract Options
James Shields, SP: $13.5MM ($1MM buyout)
Free Agents
Ervin Santana, Bruce Chen, Carlos Pena, Miguel Tejada
General Manager Dayton Moore’s rebuild of the Royals' organization finally bore fruit at the Major League level in 2013, as products of the farm system and trades helped propel the team to its first winning campaign since 2003. No longer the American League Central’s perennial doormat, the Royals remained in the hunt for a wild card spot until the final weeks of the season, a significant step forward for a club that hasn’t been considered a legitimate contender in at least 20 years. The accomplishment netted manager Ned Yost a two-year contract extension, and something similar could be in the pipeline for Moore. His current deal runs through 2014, and it’s not often that a manager’s contract extends beyond that of the GM who hired him.
Following an 86-win season, conventional wisdom might suggest that Royals officials simply need to make a few tweaks to push the club into contention in the AL Central. And indeed, with players considered to be franchise cornerstones at several positions across the diamond, the Royals are unlikely to see a large-scale makeover this winter on the offensive side of the ball. Young players such as first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez turned in strong seasons. Shortstop Alcides Escobar and third baseman Mike Moustakas were liabilities at the plate, but both continued to play good defense and look to get at least one more season’s worth of plate appearances to try to figure things out. Left fielder Alex Gordon and designated hitter Billy Butler, other franchise fixtures, are coming off of down seasons but have time left on long-term extensions.
The Royals’ bullpen is also unlikely to see significant turnover. While we can’t count on Royals relievers to be as dominant in 2014 as they were this year -- the unit’s 2.55 ERA was easily the AL’s best -- all key contributors are in line to return next season. Pieces like Greg Holland (67 IP, 1.21 ERA), Tim Collins (53 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA) and Aaron Crow (48 IP, 3.38 ERA) are under club control for years to come, so expect any bullpen signings to be limited to deals for situational arms. Luke Hochevar is a bit of a wildcard, as his success this year in the pen (70 1/3 IP, 1.92 ERA) could lead the Royals to try him again as a starter.
Things change when we turn to the rotation, where Moore and his lieutenants may find themselves making significant investments this winter just to stay in place. Ervin Santana stands out as the most prominent example -- his 211 innings of 3.24 ERA ball will be tough to replace if he departs to another team in free agency. While there’s some possibility that the Royals could retain Santana -- they’ve already indicated they plan to extend him a qualifying offer, which would depress other teams’ enthusiasm for the righty -- the No. 6 ranked player on our Free Agent Power Rankings is likely to attract plenty of other suitors. In addition, Moore has said that he expects 2014’s payroll to hover in the range of this season’s $82MM, suggesting Santana could quickly price himself beyond the Royals’ budget. Another decision looms with free agent Bruce Chen, whose 3.27-ERA, 121-inning season places him firmly in crafty lefty territory. The Royals may opt to pass on bringing back the 36-year-old Chen, however, if his asking price extends to two years.
There’s more uncertainty in the rotation behind Santana and Chen. It’s an open question how long Jeremy Guthrie can continue his low strikeout rate tightrope act, as his K% fell to 12.3% this season, good for last in the majors among qualified starters. Guthrie doesn’t walk many batters, but it’s difficult to survive in today’s game if you don’t miss more bats than Guthrie does. Elsewhere in the rotation, Wade Davis may get another shot at turning things around in 2014, but he should be on a short leash if he doesn’t turn in better results than the 5.32 ERA he coughed up this year. Even rotation anchor James Shields, the prize of the controversial Wil Myers trade, saw his peripherals slip despite a sterling 3.15 ERA in 228 2/3 innings. If he posts similar strikeout and walk rates next year, Shields could see his ERA rise to something more in line with the 3.72 that xFIP projected him for this year.
Luckily, several young pitchers may be ready to help the Royals’ staff in 2014. Yordano Ventura turned heads in the season’s final weeks by lighting up the radar gun with a triple-digit fastball, and he should be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2014 Spring Training -- particularly if the club can’t hang on to Santana. Top prospect Kyle Zimmer could reach the big-league team at some point next season. There’s also Danny Duffy, who clawed his way back from Tommy John surgery to make five starts as the season drew to a close. If one of these three can stick in the majors in 2014, the rotation picture looks magnitudes brighter.
In an October Kansas City Star article, Moore was quoted as saying that the Royals would like to add or retain a veteran starter, given the inexperience of pitchers such as Ventura and Duffy. One-year deals for a reclamation project along the lines of Dan Haren or Phil Hughes could make sense, or the Royals could look to swing a trade for an arm with bounce-back potential, as they did with Santana around this time last year. However, Moore adds in the same article that it’s not inconceivable that the Royals enter 2014 without having acquired a veteran pitcher. “The bullpen was used very wisely this year,” Moore said. “ … If our bullpen has to be used a little bit more next year in the first part of the season, so be it.” Comments such as these suggest that the Royals will look to make an acquisition but are comfortable with the pieces they have in place if the right opportunity doesn’t materialize.
After the team scored just 648 runs this season, many Royals fans expect Moore to conduct a thorough search for offensive help over the winter. Second base stands out as an immediate need, as Royals second basemen hit just .240/.296/.306 for the year. Emilio Bonifacio slashed his way to a .285/.352/.348 line and stole 16 bases down the stretch after coming over from the Blue Jays in August, appearing to stabilize the position for the Royals. However, The Star’s Bob Dutton writes that the club will still look to acquire a second baseman this winter, with an eye toward shifting Bonifacio to a utility role. Who might pique their interest?
The Royals’ name surfaced frequently in trade talks surrounding the Angels’ Howie Kendrick in July, and as an above-average hitter who’s provided quality defense at second base, he appears to be a fit. However, Kendrick will require a significant prospect haul in return. Ian Kinsler is another veteran target, given the Rangers’ middle infielder logjam, but he’s just a year into a five-year, $75MM contract -- consummating a deal would likely require the Rangers to absorb a significant portion of that amount. It goes without saying, but trades for proven performers like these would be expensive and risky for a small-market team like the Royals. And yet, I’d be surprised to see Moore target a buy-low candidate like Danny Espinosa or Rickie Weeks -- with Bonifacio in the fold, the Royals can afford to be a bit more selective.
It's worth noting that ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted earlier this week that the Royals are "ready to talk" about including Butler in a trade this winter, a report Dutton later confirmed. Dutton noted, however, that Moore has indicated he's willing to trade any player in the right deal. Dealing Country Breakfast for say, an everyday second baseman this winter would be selling low on a player who posted a 116 OPS+ this season but who had previously managed a mark of at least 125 every year since 2009. It would also immediately task the Royals with finding DH help outside the organization, as there doesn't appear to be a player in the minors ready to replace Butler.
If the Royals can't put together a trade for a second baseman, Omar Infante could be an option -- behind Robinson Cano, he’s probably the best player available at the keystone in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $25MM deal for the 31-year-old, which might be in the Royals’ price range. Beyond Infante, though, it’s an uninspiring market.
The outfield would also appear to be in need of an upgrade -- Royals outfielders collectively hit just .259/.314/.392 in 2013. However, that same group also combined for a 52.5 UZR, suggesting that they were the majors’ best defensive outfield by a wide margin. Adding a marquee name like Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury is likely out of the question for the Royals, and the club may eventually decide that the defense-focused unit they have in place is a better fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium than a free agent outfielder from the second tier. Nelson Cruz, for example, hasn’t posted quality defensive numbers for years. And in Kauffman, he may not provide enough of an offensive upgrade over the late-season David Lough-Justin Maxwell platoon to counteract the defensive downgrade. Instead, a player like Marlon Byrd could work for the Royals, as he grades out as a strong right fielder and could provide an offensive boost even with some regression from this year's standout season.
The Royals found themselves on the cusp of contention in 2013 for the first time in decades. However, the club must address multiple holes this offseason if it hopes to stay there. Significant regression is likely in the starting rotation, and success in 2014 likely hinges on whether Moore & Co. can counteract it. The Royals will also need to find a way to add to their young offense, as this isn’t a playoff-caliber lineup as currently projected.
The Royals came close to a playoff berth for the first time in decades in 2013, but major questions surround their rotation heading into the offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
Alex Gordon, LF: $24MM through 2015
Jeremy Guthrie, SP: $20MM through 2015
Billy Butler, DH: $9MM through 2015
Alcides Escobar, SS: $6.5 MM through 2015
Salvador Perez, C: $5.25MM through 2016
Wade Davis, RP: $4.8MM through 2014
Noel Arguelles, SP: $1.38MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible
Luke Hochevar, SP (5.151): $5MM
Greg Holland, CL (3.028): $4.9MM
Eric Hosmer, 1B (2.146, Super Two): $4.1MM
Emilio Bonifacio, UT (5.066): $3.3MM
Felipe Paulino, SP (5.163): $3MM
Aaron Crow, RP (3.0): $1.9MM
Chris Getz, 2B (5.033): $1.3MM
George Kottaras, C (4.149): $1.2MM
Justin Maxwell, RF (3.027): $1.2MM
Tim Collins, RP (3.0): $1MM
Luis Mendoza, SP (3.063): $1MM
Brett Hayes, C (3.018): $900K
Contract Options
James Shields, SP: $13.5MM ($1MM buyout)
Free Agents
Ervin Santana, Bruce Chen, Carlos Pena, Miguel Tejada
General Manager Dayton Moore’s rebuild of the Royals' organization finally bore fruit at the Major League level in 2013, as products of the farm system and trades helped propel the team to its first winning campaign since 2003. No longer the American League Central’s perennial doormat, the Royals remained in the hunt for a wild card spot until the final weeks of the season, a significant step forward for a club that hasn’t been considered a legitimate contender in at least 20 years. The accomplishment netted manager Ned Yost a two-year contract extension, and something similar could be in the pipeline for Moore. His current deal runs through 2014, and it’s not often that a manager’s contract extends beyond that of the GM who hired him.
Following an 86-win season, conventional wisdom might suggest that Royals officials simply need to make a few tweaks to push the club into contention in the AL Central. And indeed, with players considered to be franchise cornerstones at several positions across the diamond, the Royals are unlikely to see a large-scale makeover this winter on the offensive side of the ball. Young players such as first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez turned in strong seasons. Shortstop Alcides Escobar and third baseman Mike Moustakas were liabilities at the plate, but both continued to play good defense and look to get at least one more season’s worth of plate appearances to try to figure things out. Left fielder Alex Gordon and designated hitter Billy Butler, other franchise fixtures, are coming off of down seasons but have time left on long-term extensions.
The Royals’ bullpen is also unlikely to see significant turnover. While we can’t count on Royals relievers to be as dominant in 2014 as they were this year -- the unit’s 2.55 ERA was easily the AL’s best -- all key contributors are in line to return next season. Pieces like Greg Holland (67 IP, 1.21 ERA), Tim Collins (53 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA) and Aaron Crow (48 IP, 3.38 ERA) are under club control for years to come, so expect any bullpen signings to be limited to deals for situational arms. Luke Hochevar is a bit of a wildcard, as his success this year in the pen (70 1/3 IP, 1.92 ERA) could lead the Royals to try him again as a starter.
Things change when we turn to the rotation, where Moore and his lieutenants may find themselves making significant investments this winter just to stay in place. Ervin Santana stands out as the most prominent example -- his 211 innings of 3.24 ERA ball will be tough to replace if he departs to another team in free agency. While there’s some possibility that the Royals could retain Santana -- they’ve already indicated they plan to extend him a qualifying offer, which would depress other teams’ enthusiasm for the righty -- the No. 6 ranked player on our Free Agent Power Rankings is likely to attract plenty of other suitors. In addition, Moore has said that he expects 2014’s payroll to hover in the range of this season’s $82MM, suggesting Santana could quickly price himself beyond the Royals’ budget. Another decision looms with free agent Bruce Chen, whose 3.27-ERA, 121-inning season places him firmly in crafty lefty territory. The Royals may opt to pass on bringing back the 36-year-old Chen, however, if his asking price extends to two years.
There’s more uncertainty in the rotation behind Santana and Chen. It’s an open question how long Jeremy Guthrie can continue his low strikeout rate tightrope act, as his K% fell to 12.3% this season, good for last in the majors among qualified starters. Guthrie doesn’t walk many batters, but it’s difficult to survive in today’s game if you don’t miss more bats than Guthrie does. Elsewhere in the rotation, Wade Davis may get another shot at turning things around in 2014, but he should be on a short leash if he doesn’t turn in better results than the 5.32 ERA he coughed up this year. Even rotation anchor James Shields, the prize of the controversial Wil Myers trade, saw his peripherals slip despite a sterling 3.15 ERA in 228 2/3 innings. If he posts similar strikeout and walk rates next year, Shields could see his ERA rise to something more in line with the 3.72 that xFIP projected him for this year.
Luckily, several young pitchers may be ready to help the Royals’ staff in 2014. Yordano Ventura turned heads in the season’s final weeks by lighting up the radar gun with a triple-digit fastball, and he should be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2014 Spring Training -- particularly if the club can’t hang on to Santana. Top prospect Kyle Zimmer could reach the big-league team at some point next season. There’s also Danny Duffy, who clawed his way back from Tommy John surgery to make five starts as the season drew to a close. If one of these three can stick in the majors in 2014, the rotation picture looks magnitudes brighter.
In an October Kansas City Star article, Moore was quoted as saying that the Royals would like to add or retain a veteran starter, given the inexperience of pitchers such as Ventura and Duffy. One-year deals for a reclamation project along the lines of Dan Haren or Phil Hughes could make sense, or the Royals could look to swing a trade for an arm with bounce-back potential, as they did with Santana around this time last year. However, Moore adds in the same article that it’s not inconceivable that the Royals enter 2014 without having acquired a veteran pitcher. “The bullpen was used very wisely this year,” Moore said. “ … If our bullpen has to be used a little bit more next year in the first part of the season, so be it.” Comments such as these suggest that the Royals will look to make an acquisition but are comfortable with the pieces they have in place if the right opportunity doesn’t materialize.
After the team scored just 648 runs this season, many Royals fans expect Moore to conduct a thorough search for offensive help over the winter. Second base stands out as an immediate need, as Royals second basemen hit just .240/.296/.306 for the year. Emilio Bonifacio slashed his way to a .285/.352/.348 line and stole 16 bases down the stretch after coming over from the Blue Jays in August, appearing to stabilize the position for the Royals. However, The Star’s Bob Dutton writes that the club will still look to acquire a second baseman this winter, with an eye toward shifting Bonifacio to a utility role. Who might pique their interest?
The Royals’ name surfaced frequently in trade talks surrounding the Angels’ Howie Kendrick in July, and as an above-average hitter who’s provided quality defense at second base, he appears to be a fit. However, Kendrick will require a significant prospect haul in return. Ian Kinsler is another veteran target, given the Rangers’ middle infielder logjam, but he’s just a year into a five-year, $75MM contract -- consummating a deal would likely require the Rangers to absorb a significant portion of that amount. It goes without saying, but trades for proven performers like these would be expensive and risky for a small-market team like the Royals. And yet, I’d be surprised to see Moore target a buy-low candidate like Danny Espinosa or Rickie Weeks -- with Bonifacio in the fold, the Royals can afford to be a bit more selective.
It's worth noting that ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted earlier this week that the Royals are "ready to talk" about including Butler in a trade this winter, a report Dutton later confirmed. Dutton noted, however, that Moore has indicated he's willing to trade any player in the right deal. Dealing Country Breakfast for say, an everyday second baseman this winter would be selling low on a player who posted a 116 OPS+ this season but who had previously managed a mark of at least 125 every year since 2009. It would also immediately task the Royals with finding DH help outside the organization, as there doesn't appear to be a player in the minors ready to replace Butler.
If the Royals can't put together a trade for a second baseman, Omar Infante could be an option -- behind Robinson Cano, he’s probably the best player available at the keystone in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $25MM deal for the 31-year-old, which might be in the Royals’ price range. Beyond Infante, though, it’s an uninspiring market.
The outfield would also appear to be in need of an upgrade -- Royals outfielders collectively hit just .259/.314/.392 in 2013. However, that same group also combined for a 52.5 UZR, suggesting that they were the majors’ best defensive outfield by a wide margin. Adding a marquee name like Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury is likely out of the question for the Royals, and the club may eventually decide that the defense-focused unit they have in place is a better fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium than a free agent outfielder from the second tier. Nelson Cruz, for example, hasn’t posted quality defensive numbers for years. And in Kauffman, he may not provide enough of an offensive upgrade over the late-season David Lough-Justin Maxwell platoon to counteract the defensive downgrade. Instead, a player like Marlon Byrd could work for the Royals, as he grades out as a strong right fielder and could provide an offensive boost even with some regression from this year's standout season.
The Royals found themselves on the cusp of contention in 2013 for the first time in decades. However, the club must address multiple holes this offseason if it hopes to stay there. Significant regression is likely in the starting rotation, and success in 2014 likely hinges on whether Moore & Co. can counteract it. The Royals will also need to find a way to add to their young offense, as this isn’t a playoff-caliber lineup as currently projected.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
Speaking of Central Division rivals, it will be interesting to watch the impact on the Tigers with Jim Leyland retiring. We saw this year how an experienced manager can create a major impact on a club...Detroit's choice as a replacement will be interesting.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
I'm not sure I agree with this assessment. If they have a bullpen worth a damn, they're probably in the World Series right now for the 2nd straight year.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
Here's an interesting look at the Tigers...it seems as if they may have trouble making major improvements this offseason.
Steve_424
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 10,608
- Reaction score
- 13,280
- Points
- 123
MLBTR has the Indians' offseason preview...not much that hasn't already been covered here:
Fed up after a 2012 season in which they went 68-94 and allowed 178 runs more than they scored, the Indians attempted to force their way into contention by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the following offseason. Cleveland improved by 24 games in 2013 and made the postseason for the first time since 2007, falling in a one-game playoff against the Rays. They'll aim to repeat that success in 2013, but first they'll need to patch up their pitching staff.
Guaranteed Contracts
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF: $45MM through 2016
Michael Bourn, OF: $41MM through 2016
Carlos Santana, C: $19.6MM through 2017
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $10MM through 2014
Ryan Raburn, UT: $4.9MM through 2015
Mike Aviles, 2B: $3.75MM through 2014
Trevor Bauer, P: $1.2MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligibles
Justin Masterson, SP (5.108): $9.7MM
Chris Perez, RP (5.136): $9MM (non-tender candidate)
Drew Stubbs, OF (4.047): $3.8MM (non-tender candidate)
Michael Brantley, OF (3.131): $3.7MM
Marc Rzepczynski, RP (3.131): $1.4MM
Vinnie Pestano, RP (2.159): $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
Josh Tomlin, SP (3.071): $1.1MM (non-tender candidate)
Lou Marson, C (4.036): $1MM (non-tender candidate)
Blake Wood, RP (3.107): $800K (non-tender candidate)
Frank Herrmann, RP (2.147): $600K (non-tender candidate)
Contract Options
Ubaldo Jimenez, $8MM club option, $1MM buyout; Jimenez may void option after being traded by Rockies
Jason Kubel, OF: $7.5MM mutual option, $1MM buyout
Free Agents
Joe Smith, Matt Albers, Kelly Shoppach, Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Jason Giambi
The Indians' additions of Swisher and Bourn were important parts of the Indians' 2013 season, but those weren't the only reasons they succeeded. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana continued to emerge as top young players. Yan Gomes, acquired the previous offseason in a relatively minor trade with the Blue Jays, caught 85 games and was one of Cleveland's best hitters. And Ryan Raburn posted a ridiculous .272/.357/.543 line in a part-time role. Meanwhile, the Indians' starting pitchers -- primarily Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir and Zach McAllister -- were very reliable, which might not have seemed that likely at the beginning of the year.
The Indians' rotation will likely be the focus of much of their offseason. Kazmir is a free agent, and Jimenez essentially is as well. Danny Salazar, coming off a brilliant season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, will take over one of their spots, but that still leaves one opening. It's not impossible that Kazmir will be back, but it's very unlikely that Jimenez will be. After Masterson, Salazar, Kluber and McAllister, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are probably the Indians' next options; Carrasco is a perfectly reasonable depth piece (if not more), but Bauer did not even pitch well at Triple-A in 2013.
The right side of the Indians' infield is relatively set, with Swisher as the primary starter at first and Kipnis at second. (Swisher could also start in the outfield if need be, freeing the Indians to pursue another first baseman, but the free agent market at first base is not particularly strong.) Asdrubal Cabrera is still Cleveland's shortstop, although the Indians could consider trading him this offseason, given his $10MM salary and the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Lindor does not turn 20 until November and probably will not make his big-league debut until late 2014, at the earliest, so if the Indians were to trade Cabrera, they could look for a free agent shortstop or hand the position to Mike Aviles.
Lonnie Chisenhall will likely play third; the former first-round pick has not managed to stick in parts of three seasons in the Majors, but he only turned 25 this month and has hit well at Triple-A. Aviles, who got 37 starts for the Indians at third in 2013, will likely pick up starts at third yet again if Chisenhall continues to struggle. Gomes and Santana will continue on as the Indians' catchers, with Santana also picking up starts at first and DH. The Indians also apparently have interest in keeping Jason Giambi for 2014, either as a player or a coach.
Bourn and Michael Brantley will occupy two outfield spots, which leaves one open. Drew Stubbs hit just .233/.305/.360 in 2013; given his defense and the fact that he's relatively cheap, it might still be worth tendering him a contract, but the Indians likely won't want to go into Spring Training with him penciled in as a starter. The Indians do have an in-house alternative in Ryan Raburn, who was revelatory in 2013. His spectacular hitting was so far out of character, though, that it's hard to see him repeating it, particularly if he doesn't get 45% of his plate appearances against lefties again. Anyway, even if the Indians acquire another outfielder, finding at bats for Raburn shouldn't be hard.
In the bullpen, the Indians may find themselves looking for a new closer, given Chris Perez's struggles down the stretch and his projected 2014 salary of $9MM. If the Indians do indeed non-tender Perez, young righty Cody Allen, who posted 11.3 K/9 while throwing mid-90s gas last season, would be an excellent candidate to replace him. In addition to Perez, several other relievers could depart, including Joe Smith, Rich Hill and Matt Albers. Along with Allen, Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski are the only obvious returnees. The Indians could promote an arm or two for the minors, but it still looks like they may need to sign a reliever or two out of free agency.
The Indians, then, could have three key items on their to-do list: replacing Jimenez and/or Kazmir; adding a hitter to play either first base or right field, whichever Swisher doesn't occupy; and buying themselves a new bullpen. Even after drawing just 1.5MM fans in 2013, the Indians say they'll be able to field a "contending team" in 2014, although they haven't explained what their payroll might be. Without knowing the Indians' financial plans, it's hard to say how their offseason will go. The early signals, however, aren't that encouraging for Indians fans, as it already appears very unlikely that the team will be able to re-sign Jimenez. It doesn't take much money to patch up a bullpen, but it does take money to sign a slugger or a good starting pitcher.
On the field, the Indians' 2013 season was a success. But they drew fewer than 20K fans even for some weekend home games in September, when they were in the thick of a playoff race. The previous offseason's acquisitions of Swisher and Bourn were reasonably successful from a baseball perspective, but they did not appear to help attract fans who might have been put off by the team's awful performance in 2012. Swisher and Bourn are under contract for the next three seasons, regardless. Even with the new TV deal to which the Indians agreed before the 2013 season, it remains to be seen whether the team will shell out more money now that it's clear the last spending spree wasn't particularly effective at bringing fans through the gates.
Bullpen and Jimenez aside, then, unless the Indians get creative on the trade market, the key players on the 2014 team may end up being fairly similar to last season's. They won 92 games in 2013, so clearly, that's not the worst thing in the world. But it's fair to wonder if Gomes, Raburn and Kluber, in particular, are really as good as they were in 2013, and whether the Indians have the pitching depth they need. Even if not, the Indians could well make up the difference with slightly better performances from Swisher, Bourn, Chisenhall and Cabrera (if he's still around), along with a full season of Salazar. But a much clearer path to success would be to spend a bit of money to address the rotation and the outfield, and right now, it's not clear whether the Indians will be willing to do it.
Fed up after a 2012 season in which they went 68-94 and allowed 178 runs more than they scored, the Indians attempted to force their way into contention by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the following offseason. Cleveland improved by 24 games in 2013 and made the postseason for the first time since 2007, falling in a one-game playoff against the Rays. They'll aim to repeat that success in 2013, but first they'll need to patch up their pitching staff.
Guaranteed Contracts
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF: $45MM through 2016
Michael Bourn, OF: $41MM through 2016
Carlos Santana, C: $19.6MM through 2017
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $10MM through 2014
Ryan Raburn, UT: $4.9MM through 2015
Mike Aviles, 2B: $3.75MM through 2014
Trevor Bauer, P: $1.2MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligibles
Justin Masterson, SP (5.108): $9.7MM
Chris Perez, RP (5.136): $9MM (non-tender candidate)
Drew Stubbs, OF (4.047): $3.8MM (non-tender candidate)
Michael Brantley, OF (3.131): $3.7MM
Marc Rzepczynski, RP (3.131): $1.4MM
Vinnie Pestano, RP (2.159): $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
Josh Tomlin, SP (3.071): $1.1MM (non-tender candidate)
Lou Marson, C (4.036): $1MM (non-tender candidate)
Blake Wood, RP (3.107): $800K (non-tender candidate)
Frank Herrmann, RP (2.147): $600K (non-tender candidate)
Contract Options
Ubaldo Jimenez, $8MM club option, $1MM buyout; Jimenez may void option after being traded by Rockies
Jason Kubel, OF: $7.5MM mutual option, $1MM buyout
Free Agents
Joe Smith, Matt Albers, Kelly Shoppach, Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Jason Giambi
The Indians' additions of Swisher and Bourn were important parts of the Indians' 2013 season, but those weren't the only reasons they succeeded. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana continued to emerge as top young players. Yan Gomes, acquired the previous offseason in a relatively minor trade with the Blue Jays, caught 85 games and was one of Cleveland's best hitters. And Ryan Raburn posted a ridiculous .272/.357/.543 line in a part-time role. Meanwhile, the Indians' starting pitchers -- primarily Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir and Zach McAllister -- were very reliable, which might not have seemed that likely at the beginning of the year.
The Indians' rotation will likely be the focus of much of their offseason. Kazmir is a free agent, and Jimenez essentially is as well. Danny Salazar, coming off a brilliant season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, will take over one of their spots, but that still leaves one opening. It's not impossible that Kazmir will be back, but it's very unlikely that Jimenez will be. After Masterson, Salazar, Kluber and McAllister, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are probably the Indians' next options; Carrasco is a perfectly reasonable depth piece (if not more), but Bauer did not even pitch well at Triple-A in 2013.
The right side of the Indians' infield is relatively set, with Swisher as the primary starter at first and Kipnis at second. (Swisher could also start in the outfield if need be, freeing the Indians to pursue another first baseman, but the free agent market at first base is not particularly strong.) Asdrubal Cabrera is still Cleveland's shortstop, although the Indians could consider trading him this offseason, given his $10MM salary and the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Lindor does not turn 20 until November and probably will not make his big-league debut until late 2014, at the earliest, so if the Indians were to trade Cabrera, they could look for a free agent shortstop or hand the position to Mike Aviles.
Lonnie Chisenhall will likely play third; the former first-round pick has not managed to stick in parts of three seasons in the Majors, but he only turned 25 this month and has hit well at Triple-A. Aviles, who got 37 starts for the Indians at third in 2013, will likely pick up starts at third yet again if Chisenhall continues to struggle. Gomes and Santana will continue on as the Indians' catchers, with Santana also picking up starts at first and DH. The Indians also apparently have interest in keeping Jason Giambi for 2014, either as a player or a coach.
Bourn and Michael Brantley will occupy two outfield spots, which leaves one open. Drew Stubbs hit just .233/.305/.360 in 2013; given his defense and the fact that he's relatively cheap, it might still be worth tendering him a contract, but the Indians likely won't want to go into Spring Training with him penciled in as a starter. The Indians do have an in-house alternative in Ryan Raburn, who was revelatory in 2013. His spectacular hitting was so far out of character, though, that it's hard to see him repeating it, particularly if he doesn't get 45% of his plate appearances against lefties again. Anyway, even if the Indians acquire another outfielder, finding at bats for Raburn shouldn't be hard.
In the bullpen, the Indians may find themselves looking for a new closer, given Chris Perez's struggles down the stretch and his projected 2014 salary of $9MM. If the Indians do indeed non-tender Perez, young righty Cody Allen, who posted 11.3 K/9 while throwing mid-90s gas last season, would be an excellent candidate to replace him. In addition to Perez, several other relievers could depart, including Joe Smith, Rich Hill and Matt Albers. Along with Allen, Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski are the only obvious returnees. The Indians could promote an arm or two for the minors, but it still looks like they may need to sign a reliever or two out of free agency.
The Indians, then, could have three key items on their to-do list: replacing Jimenez and/or Kazmir; adding a hitter to play either first base or right field, whichever Swisher doesn't occupy; and buying themselves a new bullpen. Even after drawing just 1.5MM fans in 2013, the Indians say they'll be able to field a "contending team" in 2014, although they haven't explained what their payroll might be. Without knowing the Indians' financial plans, it's hard to say how their offseason will go. The early signals, however, aren't that encouraging for Indians fans, as it already appears very unlikely that the team will be able to re-sign Jimenez. It doesn't take much money to patch up a bullpen, but it does take money to sign a slugger or a good starting pitcher.
On the field, the Indians' 2013 season was a success. But they drew fewer than 20K fans even for some weekend home games in September, when they were in the thick of a playoff race. The previous offseason's acquisitions of Swisher and Bourn were reasonably successful from a baseball perspective, but they did not appear to help attract fans who might have been put off by the team's awful performance in 2012. Swisher and Bourn are under contract for the next three seasons, regardless. Even with the new TV deal to which the Indians agreed before the 2013 season, it remains to be seen whether the team will shell out more money now that it's clear the last spending spree wasn't particularly effective at bringing fans through the gates.
Bullpen and Jimenez aside, then, unless the Indians get creative on the trade market, the key players on the 2014 team may end up being fairly similar to last season's. They won 92 games in 2013, so clearly, that's not the worst thing in the world. But it's fair to wonder if Gomes, Raburn and Kluber, in particular, are really as good as they were in 2013, and whether the Indians have the pitching depth they need. Even if not, the Indians could well make up the difference with slightly better performances from Swisher, Bourn, Chisenhall and Cabrera (if he's still around), along with a full season of Salazar. But a much clearer path to success would be to spend a bit of money to address the rotation and the outfield, and right now, it's not clear whether the Indians will be willing to do it.