Based on record and most statistical rankings, the Houston Rockets were the third-best team in the NBA last year. Now, they’ve added one of the greatest point guards in the history of the league. Is that enough to close the gap between them and Golden State to the extent that they have a shot at beating the Warriors?
The Rockets have arguably the two most accomplished players in the league who have never won an MVP Award. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the two are first and second among active players in MVP Award Shares without actually having won the award:
Active Leaders, MVP Award Shares
RankPlayerMVP Shares
1.
LeBron James7.336
2.
Kevin Durant3.119
3.
Stephen Curry2.028
4.
Dirk Nowitzki1.810
5.
Chris Paul1.640
6.
James Harden1.568
7.
Russell Westbrook1.532
Provided by
Basketball-Reference.com:
View Original Table
Generated 7/3/2017.
They also have the most MVP Award shares among active players who have never won a title. Can they win some hardware now by teaming up?
Not everyone is sold on the fit — the Rockets now have two ball-dominant guards.
MORE POINTS
The concern is the “one-ball” theory. If both players “need the ball” to be effective, combining the two can neutralize the effect: The sum is less than the parts.
This notion reinforces a myth that can be unfair to some players. It’s easy to conflate what a player
does do with what he
can do.
Both Paul and Harden were on teams that didn’t have another player who
could be the primary ball-handler, ergo they didn’t play a whole lot off the ball by default. But just because they
didn’t play off the ball a lot doesn’t mean they
can’t.
Playing off the ball requires a different set of skills. A player has to get himself open by coming off screens or cutting to the rim. Most importantly, when he gets fed the ball, he can knock down the open shot.
So, when we question whether Paul and Harden can play together, we need to look at whether they have the requisite skills, not just how much they did those things last year.
PlayerSpot UpHands OffOff ScreenOffensive ReboundCut
James Harden1.198 (98%)1.000 (71%)0.852 (35%)1.258 (82%)1.652 (98%)
Chris Paul1.096 (77%).821 (36%)1.111 (90%)N/AN/A
All told, Houston ran 289 plays for Harden off the ball, and he scored 328 points on them (1.135 points per possession); the Clippers ran 137 for Paul, and he scored 146 on them (1.066 points per possession). Combined that’s 1.113 for the duo on 426 plays. Overall, Paul averages 1.060 points per possession and Harden averages 1.007. In other words, both players are
more efficient off the ball, not less.
Alternatively, while both players are very effective
with the ball, they aren’t as efficient as they are without it. In plays that primarily result in unassisted shots (isolation, pick-and-roll ball-handler and post-up), Harden averaged .992 points per possession and Paul averaged 1.004.
That reinforces the notion they didn’t play off the ball much, but it disproves the assumption they can’t perform well in that context when asked to do so.
Assuming both players move 600 of their on-ball plays (about 20 percent of their projected total plays) to off-ball plays, the duo would score 116.7
more points than they would by initiating the offense, about 1.42 per game.
Another way of looking at this is through player tracking numbers.
Chris Paul had a 69.2 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoots, which was the
second best among players who scored at least 100 points, per NBA.com. James Harden wasn’t on that same level, but he was still plenty lethal at 57.2 percent.
This is the crux of the confusion. Can the players shoot? If they can, 99 percent of the problems over ball sharing are resolved.
They both can shoot.
Comparisons to the initial problems the Miami Heat had when they combined LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are disingenuous, because neither Wade nor James were very good 3-point shooters. James has developed more of a shot since then (partly because of that struggle), and that was why the Heat had problems.
The better comparison for Harden and Paul is Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant–both high-usage players whose skills allowed for the incorporation of the other without any major encumbrances. While the “learning curve” existed even for those two, it was a much smoother transition because they already had the tools.
FEWER TURNOVERS
Last year, the biggest criticism of James Harden wasn’t the flopping; it was the turnovers.
There were reasons he donated the ball to the opposition with regularity.
Combining possessions (including fouls drawn, shots and turnovers) from Synergy and assist attempts from NBA.com’s tracking, Harden used 4,078 possessions last year. Russell Westbrook was the only player who used more (4,324). That kind of volume is insane. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and LeBron James were the only three players who even topped 3,000 possessions used.
Obviously, if you’re using 33 percent more possessions than almost anyone in the NBA, your turnovers will be higher. Here’s a look at every player who used 2,000 possessions and their turnover percentage (apologies if you’re on a phone, I had to make this graphic a little tight for you).
Harden still has the third-highest percentage (11.36), but it’s a lot more reasonable. Where things get more interesting is on the other side of the chart. Paul’s 7.16 percentage is on the other end. Bear with me here as we head into the statistical thickets. It’s worth it.
Let’s assume (for ease of math) that Paul and Harden use 6,000 possessions next year combined, which isn’t far from what Kyrie Irving and LeBron James (5,637) used last year. Let’s also assume that they split the possessions evenly, at 3,000 (note that includes some crossover since they will assist one another). Assuming the same turnover percentage, shifting 1,578 of Harden’s possessions to Paul saves the Rockets 63 turnovers on the season, because Paul does a better a job of taking care of the ball.
Measuring the “true cost” of a turnover is complicated, but it’s twofold. It involves both the cost of the lost possession (roughly one point) and the point differential in the likelihood that the opponent will score on the ensuing possession (about .25 points). These aren’t exact numbers, but they’re conservative, and they’re round: 63 turnovers translates to about 79 points on the season, or about .96 per game.
That also assumes turnovers will be a constant, but combining ball-handlers tends to reduce the overall numbers for both, but shooting percentage and turnover percentage tend to improve when defenses have to account for two elite offensive players instead of just one.
For example, both James and Irving improve their turnover ratios when they are on the court with the other.
That’s also because a player is far more likely to turn the ball over when he’s dribbling through traffic than on a catch-and-shoot.
Ergo, Paul sharing the ball with Harden makes the difference of one point per game all by itself, and that’s an extremely conservative estimate.
BETTER DEFENSE
Patrick Beverley is a solid defender. In fact, based on Defensive Real Plus-Minus, he’s the second-best defender among point guards. Here’s the rub, though: The one dude that was better than him is Paul. The difference between Paul’s 2.76 and Beverley’s 1.37 is 1.39. That’s greater than the difference between Beverley and No. 20, Terry Rozier. Paul isn’t just an upgrade on the defensive end, he’s a
significant upgrade. If he plays 30 minutes per game, that makes a difference of roughly .86 points per game on the defensive end.
We have yet, however, to discuss the Rockets’ other acquisitions this free agency season. P.J. Tucker is an elite-level wing defender with a 1.79 DRPM. Sam Dekker, whose minutes he will primarily fill, was minus-1.42 last year. Assuming minutes per night, he saves 1.34 points per game on the defensive end.
It’s worth mentioning that DRPM is hardly a catch-all stat. All defensive metrics are hard to tout as the be-all and end-all of everything, but it’s also worth mentioning that anyone with eyeballs will confirm that Paul is a great defender and that Tucker is a significant defensive upgrade from Dekker, who needs time to grow.
The bottom line is that replacing Beverley and Dekker with Paul and Tucker saves the Rockets about 2.2o points per game on the defensive end.
HOW MUCH HAS HOUSTON IMPROVED?
Looking at everything, the Rockets add 1.42 more points based on better shots, they net .96 points per game on turnovers, and they save a total of 2.20 on the defensive end. Altogether, they improve by roughly 4.6 net points per game combined, adjusted for usage.
Added to last year’s 5.8 points, that would put them at 10.4 net points per game, still a shade behind the Warriors’ 11.6, but considerably closer.
Granted, there are a
lot of caveats to this. Some of them work
for the Rockets and some of them work
against them.
The overriding element in a lot of these determinations is that Paul, Harden, and head coach Mike D’Antoni all have tremendous basketball smarts. There will be some issues to resolve, such as figuring out pace, but it’s a pretty reasonable assessment that the Houston Rockets, not the Cleveland Cavaliers or San Antonio Spurs, now loom as the biggest threat to a Warriors repeat.
