2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Heej]

Great post I might have confused the clips I watched of SGA with someone else then. I thought I was watching a 6'6" 205+ lb strong ass kid. Dunno who else I'd be confusing him for but oh well were not gonna draft him. You consider Miles undersized for the 3? I thought he was a pretty thick 6'7" tweener. I'll keep an open mind and watch some more vids. His stroke looks strong and pure. Should be able to pull from 25+ feet for mega spacing one day like KLove does if he's given the green light

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Mainly I'm worried about Miles's off-ball defense on the wing. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy you want chasing shooters all around the court (do you have synergy numbers to prove or disprove this?). My gut says his natural position defensively is PF, but obviously his measurements are significantly below average there.

We're totally on the same page on SGA. I like him, but he doesn't fit our timeline. Won't be an impact defender right away, and probably needs the ball in his hands more than we'd be willing to give it to him in order for him to develop optimally.

I think SGA can be okay as a secondary ball handler, I'd actually like him there. He's an okay shooter off the catch. I just don't buy the defensive versatility stuff I've heard about. He's just too thin. He's a one position defender, maybe two. And having a ball handler who can't shoot off the dribble in today's NBA is just so tough to deal with.

Unfortunately there's no defensive #'s on there that I trust whatsoever. Maybe @Sir'Dom Pointer finds something on there useful though.

He very well could end up being a tweener defensively. I don't have a feel for his lateral mobility on that end at all. There's a wide range of outcomes there for sure.

For what it's worth he allowed 0.795 PPP on shots off screens last year, 62nd percentile. My issue with their play-type defensive #'s is when they gauge the guy as the primary defender. Like for example, I started looking at defensive FG% at the rim. But would that only include in 1-on-1 situations? When would they transfer the "primary defender" duty over to a weakside rotation player? It's hard to say without having the video playback feature on there where you can actually watch the possessions. But my hunch says that in that instance where like a C should rotate underneath to pick up a guy who attacked from the perimeter that that wouldn't be factored into those #'s.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Great post I might have confused the clips I watched of SGA with someone else then. I thought I was watching a 6'6" 205+ lb strong ass kid. Dunno who else I'd be confusing him for but oh well were not gonna draft him. You consider Miles undersized for the 3? I thought he was a pretty thick 6'7" tweener. I'll keep an open mind and watch some more vids. His stroke looks strong and pure. Should be able to pull from 25+ feet for mega spacing one day like KLove does if he's given the green light

Great size for a 3. Slightly undersized for a 4.

6'9" wingspan isn't the best there, but workable.

Yeah, his quick trigger will be useful. I know @Sir'Dom Pointer will like this thought here... In the scenario that the Cavs draft Bridges, they need to show LeBron all of Bridges' shooting possessions from last season. Guy has almost as much irrational confidence in his shot as JR does. Almost every time he catches the ball he puts it up. LeBron assist opportunities for DAYS.

 

[Nathan S]

I think SGA can be okay as a secondary ball handler, I'd actually like him there. He's an okay shooter off the catch. I just don't buy the defensive versatility stuff I've heard about. He's just too thin. He's a one position defender, maybe two. And having a ball handler who can't shoot off the dribble in today's NBA is just so tough to deal with.

Unfortunately there's no defensive #'s on there that I trust whatsoever. Maybe @Sir'Dom Pointer finds something on there useful though.

He very well could end up being a tweener defensively. I don't have a feel for his lateral mobility on that end at all. There's a wide range of outcomes there for sure.

For what it's worth he allowed 0.795 PPP on shots off screens last year, 62nd percentile. My issue with their play-type defensive #'s is when they gauge the guy as the primary defender. Like for example, I started looking at defensive FG% at the rim. But would that only include in 1-on-1 situations? When would they transfer the "primary defender" duty over to a weakside rotation player? It's hard to say without having the video playback feature on there where you can actually watch the possessions. But my hunch says that in that instance where like a C should rotate underneath to pick up a guy who attacked from the perimeter that that wouldn't be factored into those #'s.

I also think Shai can be okay as a secondary ballhandler, but I can't sell myself on spending a top-10 pick in a draft like this on an "okay" secondary ballhandler. Would he even be an upgrade over Cedi in that role? If he develops into a star, it'll be as a primary ballhandler...so I think he'll look like a pretty unremarkable player until he's given that opportunity.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Great post I might have confused the clips I watched of SGA with someone else then. I thought I was watching a 6'6" 205+ lb strong ass kid. Dunno who else I'd be confusing him for but oh well were not gonna draft him. You consider Miles undersized for the 3? I thought he was a pretty thick 6'7" tweener. I'll keep an open mind and watch some more vids. His stroke looks strong and pure. Should be able to pull from 25+ feet for mega spacing one day like KLove does if he's given the green light

I showed you the clip of SGA and I think you are also confusing him with Hamidou Diallo.

Diallo is more muscular and is known for his explosive finishes and they look similar on broadcast.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I also think Shai can be okay as a secondary ballhandler, but I can't sell myself on spending a top-10 pick in a draft like this on an "okay" secondary ballhandler. Would he even be an upgrade over Cedi in that role? If he develops into a star, it'll be as a primary ballhandler...so I think he'll look like a pretty unremarkable player until he's given that opportunity.

Yeah people are just hyping him up after his end of season surge. And are looking for any possible way to indirectly denigrate Sexton as a prospect lol. I have him #17 right now in my ranking

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah people are just hyping him up after his end of season surge. And are looking for any possible way to indirectly denigrate Sexton as a prospect lol. I have him #17 right now in my ranking

I have to say, I'm pretty torn on Sexton. As I've mentioned before, I forget if in this thread or the other one, college free throw rate is majorly correlated with NBA success and he's among the best ever in that department. If you're drawing a lot of fouls and hitting free throws at 80%, you're basically guaranteed to be a reasonably efficient player even if your percentages from the field suck. And maybe that's what he'll do. Or maybe his free throw rate won't translate and he'll just be a run-of-the-mill inefficient volume scorer who flames out of the league in a couple years.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Great size for a 3. Slightly undersized for a 4.

6'9" wingspan isn't the best there, but workable.

Yeah, his quick trigger will be useful. I know @Sir'Dom Pointer will like this thought here... In the scenario that the Cavs draft Bridges, they need to show LeBron all of Bridges' shooting possessions from last season. Guy has almost as much irrational confidence in his shot as JR does. Almost every time he catches the ball he puts it up. LeBron assist opportunities for DAYS.

I prefer Mikals rational mind and consistent three point shot better, thank you.

Even if I believe Miles will be a great player, I have zero trust in the Cavs in developing a lot of prospects. It sucks.

I think SGA can be okay as a secondary ball handler, I'd actually like him there. He's an okay shooter off the catch. I just don't buy the defensive versatility stuff I've heard about. He's just too thin. He's a one position defender, maybe two. And having a ball handler who can't shoot off the dribble in today's NBA is just so tough to deal with.

Unfortunately there's no defensive #'s on there that I trust whatsoever. Maybe @Sir'Dom Pointer finds something on there useful though.

He very well could end up being a tweener defensively. I don't have a feel for his lateral mobility on that end at all. There's a wide range of outcomes there for sure.

For what it's worth he allowed 0.795 PPP on shots off screens last year, 62nd percentile. My issue with their play-type defensive #'s is when they gauge the guy as the primary defender. Like for example, I started looking at defensive FG% at the rim. But would that only include in 1-on-1 situations? When would they transfer the "primary defender" duty over to a weakside rotation player? It's hard to say without having the video playback feature on there where you can actually watch the possessions. But my hunch says that in that instance where like a C should rotate underneath to pick up a guy who attacked from the perimeter that that wouldn't be factored into those #'s.

I kinda like Miles lateral quickness. He looked very competent in that regard. I think he wouldn't have to run like crazy trying to defend guys off screens by going over, his value would show up in that play because of his defensively versatility. I think he could be valuable defending 4s and 5s on a switch and his feet are quick enough in order to hang with wings. Basically we would switch and cut off their action instead of fighting over a screen.


As far as SGA...I just like him a lot. I don't know how his defense is going to translate, but I like his offensive upside so much more. I have zero doubt he is going to be a terrific catch and shoot player and in in due time even be a good shooter off the dribble. The improvements he has made in his shot during this season was remarkable. Calipari praised him for his ridiculous work ethic and smarts. How rare is that for a player to be promoted during a college season from the bench to being a starter and the unequivocaly the leader of a team? It just doesn't happen.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=03gnGD08OPk


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rGEUhMOKk_o


Watch this. We aren't not going to pick him most likely, but I really wouldn't mind picking him, especially if Lebron decided to leave.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I have to say, I'm pretty torn on Sexton. As I've mentioned before, I forget if in this thread or the other one, college free throw rate is majorly correlated with NBA success and he's among the best ever in that department. If you're drawing a lot of fouls and hitting free throws at 80%, you're basically guaranteed to be a reasonably efficient player even if your percentages from the field suck. And maybe that's what he'll do. Or maybe his free throw rate won't translate and he'll just be a run-of-the-mill inefficient volume scorer who flames out of the league in a couple years.

I just think Sexton is an anomaly in that regard. He got the softest calls I have seen some one get. A lot of them were straight bullshit that he just wouldn't get in the NBA. you have a list of players that their ft rate didn't translate? And how bad of a prospect wouod he be if he had an average ft rate?

When you compare Young to him in that regard, I think Youngs ft rate is going to translate much much better. He just sells them better.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I prefer Mikals rational mind and consistent three point shot better, thank you.

Even if I believe Miles will be a great player, I have zero trust in the Cavs in developing a lot of prospects. It sucks.


I kinda like Miles lateral quickness. He looked very competent in that regard. I think he wouldn't have to run like crazy trying to defend guys off screens by going over, his value would show up in that play because of his defensively versatility. I think he could be valuable defending 4s and 5s on a switch and his feet are quick enough in order to hang with wings. Basically we would switch and cut off their action instead of fighting over a screen.


As far as SGA...I just like him a lot. I don't know how his defense is going to translate, but I like his offensive upside so much more. I have zero doubt he is going to be a terrific catch and shoot player and in in due time even be a good shooter off the dribble. The improvements he has made in his shot during this season was remarkable. Calipari praised him for his ridiculous work ethic and smarts. How rare is that for a player to be promoted during a college season from the bench to being a starter and the unequivocaly the leader of a team? It just doesn't happen.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=03gnGD08OPk


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rGEUhMOKk_o


Watch this. We aren't not going to pick him most likely, but I really wouldn't mind picking him, especially if Lebron decided to leave.

Yeah I still love Mikal more. I have him #3 right now behind Luka and JJJ. I thought I had seen you talk about LeBron's stat whoring in other threads lol that's why I brought that part up lmao, I could be wrong.

The biggest thing hurting Shai for me is that I don't think he will improve his shooting off the dribble enough. I pointed it out awhile ago, but in my opinion the issue with his shooting off the dribble is that his off hand gets on top of the ball on his shot. It's much easier for him to get his hand in that positioning off the catch or on FTs than it is off the dribble. I think that's the #1 reason why he rarely even attempts shots off the dribble, he just can't get to it unless given a ton of time. It would take a big mechanical change for improvement I think.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Yeah I still love Mikal more. I have him #3 right now behind Luka and JJJ. I thought I had seen you talk about LeBron's stat whoring in other threads lol that's why I brought that part up lmao, I could be wrong.

The biggest thing hurting Shai for me is that I don't think he will improve his shooting off the dribble enough. I pointed it out awhile ago, but in my opinion the issue with his shooting off the dribble is that his off hand gets on top of the ball on his shot. It's much easier for him to get his hand in that positioning off the catch or on FTs than it is off the dribble. I think that's the #1 reason why he rarely even attempts shots off the dribble, he just can't get to it unless given a ton of time. It would take a big mechanical change for improvement I think.

Lebron is definitely stat whoring lol.

I know about his form...but it has improved and he will be able to get it off easily from mid range early on. It might take him some damn time to be consistent off the dribble from 3 though.

 

[Nathan S]

If 'Bron leaves Jontay Porter is going way the fuck up my big board. Draft him, find your Gary Harris in next year's draft, and just emulate the Nuggets.

I just think Sexton is an anomaly in that regard. He got the softest calls I have seen some one get. A lot of them were straight bullshit that he just wouldn't get in the NBA. you have a list of players that their ft rate didn't translate? And how bad of a prospect wouod he be if he had an average ft rate?

When you compare Young to him in that regard, I think Youngs ft rate is going to translate much much better. He just sells them better.

Top major conference freshman guards by free throw rate:

-Trae Young
-Eric Gordon
-Corey Brewer
-Jerryd Bayless
-Troy Bell
-Collin Sexton
-Melo Trimble
-Allen Iverson
-Rodney Stucky

Didn't translate for a lot of them, actually. If I cut his free throw rate in half, he goes from a +2.1 rating to +0.3.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

If 'Bron leaves Jontay Porter is going way the fuck up my big board. Draft him, find your Gary Harris in next year's draft, and just emulate the Nuggets.



Top major conference freshman guards by free throw rate:

-Trae Young
-Eric Gordon
-Corey Brewer
-Jerryd Bayless
-Troy Bell
-Collin Sexton
-Melo Trimble
-Allen Iverson
-Rodney Stucky

Didn't translate for a lot of them, actually. If I cut his free throw rate in half, he goes from a +2.1 rating to +0.3.

That's a huge,huge difference.

If a Lebron leaves, what about trading down for Porter? I wouldn't want to draft him straight up with the 8th or 9th pick. Clippers wouldn't give both of their picks, I don't think...? 12 and 13 is just really good value in this draft. Pain of bombing the Nets pick, sigh.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Cavs aren't trading down

And I'm on the other end of the spectrum. Jontay is a guy that you want when you already have star players that demand a ton of attention. Giving Jontay the ball in open areas and in 5-on-4 /4-on-3 situations (those situations needing to be created by elite other players on the floor) is gameover for defenses.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Cavs aren't trading down

And I'm on the other end of the spectrum. Jontay is a guy that you want when you already have star players that demand a ton of attention. Giving Jontay the ball in open areas and in 5-on-4 /4-on-3 situations (those situations needing to be created by elite other players on the floor) is gameover for defenses.

I don't even know anymore. I'm being convinced and convincing myself nowadays.

I will have much better grasp when it's all settled.