2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[The Human Q-Tip]

Video of the crowd:


7-point loss for Panathinaikos today was their biggest home loss this season.

I don't mean to harp on this for more than it's worth, and to be clear I do realize Doncic has played a muted role overall in these two games. But it was really encouraging to see him step up in clutch time in this atmosphere.

Previously, while he'd always talked the talk, he hadn't walked the walk in moments like this. In last year's Euroleague playoffs he was held scoreless and benched for the 4th quarter of Real's elimination loss. In last year's ACB league playoffs he was benched after just 8 minutes of play in Real's elimination loss. In the Eurobasket final he was having an underwhelming game when he tweaked his ankle in the 3rd quarter and never came back in. In the Copa Del Rey final this year he had a very rough game in an upset loss to rival Barca.

So I wasn't feeling super optimistic when, with 2:15 left, Doncic exhausted from playing the entire second half, and his team clinging to a 2-point, he went ISO at the top of the key against a pretty long and athletic defender in Payne. Frankly, I expected him to turn it over, and I expected Panathinaikos to tie the game on a transition dunk and ride that momentum to a win and a commanding 2-0 lead in the 5-game series. And I might have forgiven him for it and kept him at the top of my board (after all, the top teenage NCAA prospects folded like cheap lawn chairs in the tourney), but I would've been seriously worried about his ability to play his best in the biggest moments.

But instead of turning it over, he broke down Payne, got into the paint, and created an open corner 3 with one of his signature no-look passes. After that he dove headfirst into the seats trying to save a ball going out of bounds, came up with a fairly straightforward but critical steal on the next possession, and hit nothing but net on four straight free throws to ice the game. Looked every bit the part of a rising superstar silencing a raucous crowd of nearly 20,000.

I think it's important to remember that he's still basically a kid playing against a lot of very tough, grown-ass men. It will be an invaluable experience for him, but I'm not surprised that -- at his age -- he's still not consistent against that kind of competition.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

New ESPN rankings. No change at the top besides DeAndre Hunter taken out.

Devon Hall appears at 48
Omari Spellman appears at 49 (not even sure he was in top 100 prior)
Kevin Huerter appears at 54
Ray Spalding up to 59
Rawle Alkins down to 62
Goga Bitadze down to 67 (I don't expect him to stay in)
Kenrich Williams makes first appearance at 90

Huerter might be my favorite player in the 2018 draft. He's a top 20 guy for me. Don't think he stays in though.

 

[Nathan S]

New ESPN rankings. No change at the top besides DeAndre Hunter taken out.

Devon Hall appears at 48
Omari Spellman appears at 49 (not even sure he was in top 100 prior)
Kevin Huerter appears at 54
Ray Spalding up to 59
Rawle Alkins down to 62
Goga Bitadze down to 67 (I don't expect him to stay in)
Kenrich Williams makes first appearance at 90

Huerter might be my favorite player in the 2018 draft. He's a top 20 guy for me. Don't think he stays in though.

Amazed at how little hype there is for this Euro class. It's hard to find any Euro player who was as productive as Musa at the same age, let alone as productive as Doncic. And then guys like Goga, Bonga, and Okobo are all producing at levels typical of mid-first round picks from years past. Tantalizing to think that the latter 3 could be had for just a second rounder. At worst, those are stashes that could very quickly develop into blue-chip assets.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Amazed at how little hype there is for this Euro class. It's hard to find any Euro player who was as productive as Musa at the same age, let alone as productive as Doncic. And then guys like Goga, Bonga, and Okobo are all producing at levels typical of mid-first round picks from years past. Tantalizing to think that the latter 3 could be had for just a second rounder. At worst, those are stashes that could very quickly develop into blue-chip assets.

Here's all of the intl players in their top 100

2 Luke Doncic
21 Dzanan Musa
38 Elie Okobo
41 Rodions Kurucs
58 Isaac Bonga
67 Goga Bitadze
71 Issuf Sanon
73 Tadas Sedekerskis
74 Karim Jallow
77 Tryggvi Hlinason
78 Arnoldas Kulboka
80 Amine Noua
93 Williams McDowell-White
96 Laurynas Birutis
100 Vanja Marinkovic

I like Kulboka quite a bit. Haven't looked into Noua, Birutis, or Marinkovic yet to know much about them.

 

[Nathan S]

Here's all of the intl players in their top 100

2 Luke Doncic
21 Dzanan Musa
38 Elie Okobo
41 Rodions Kurucs
58 Isaac Bonga
67 Goga Bitadze
71 Issuf Sanon
73 Tadas Sedekerskis
74 Karim Jallow
77 Tryggvi Hlinason
78 Arnoldas Kulboka
80 Amine Noua
93 Williams McDowell-White
96 Laurynas Birutis
100 Vanja Marinkovic

I like Kulboka quite a bit. Haven't looked into Noua, Birutis, or Marinkovic yet to know much about them.

Kurucs looks terrible statistically. 10.6 points (55% true shooting), 2.7 boards, 1.6 assists in 21 minutes per game in the Spanish 2nd league, which according to the study I posted a few weeks back is similar competition level to mid-major NCAA (though it may have gotten modestly stronger since then). Needless to say, a 20-year-old putting up those numbers for a mid-major NCAA team would not be on the radar for NBA teams at all.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Kurucs looks terrible statistically. 10.6 points (55% true shooting), 2.7 boards, 1.6 assists in 21 minutes per game in the Spanish 2nd league, which according to the study I posted a few weeks back is similar competition level to mid-major NCAA (though it may have gotten modestly stronger since then). Needless to say, a 20-year-old putting up those numbers for a mid-major NCAA team would not be on the radar for NBA teams at all.

He's in the biggest shithole situation as just about any player in the draft. He was a projected late first last year, then pulled out of the draft. Barcelona got all pissed off that he tried to leave and basically stopped playing him at all besides practice. Then they let him go play with the 2nd league team where he basically was trying to show out because it would be his only chance and he probably felt like he had to. When really that's not his game. I guess they won't even let NBA scouts into practice a lot of the time this year.

 

[Nathan S]

He's in the biggest shithole situation as just about any player in the draft. He was a projected late first last year, then pulled out of the draft. Barcelona got all pissed off that he tried to leave and basically stopped playing him at all besides practice. Then they let him go play with the 2nd league team where he basically was trying to show out because it would be his only chance and he probably felt like he had to. When really that's not his game. I guess they won't even let NBA scouts into practice a lot of the time this year.

Yeah, I heard about that...just don't understand why he's not at least playing better in 2nd league if he's any good. If he's an NBA-level talent, playing in that league should be a leisurely walk in the park, but he doesn't stand out as anything more than a solid starter at that level. A quick look shows that even on his own team there's a player, Aleix Font, who's younger than him and arguably playing better than him.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Yeah, I heard about that...just don't understand why he's not at least playing better in 2nd league if he's any good. If he's an NBA-level talent, playing in that league should be a leisurely walk in the park, but he doesn't stand out as anything more than a solid starter at that level. A quick look shows that even on his own team there's a player, Aleix Font, who's younger than him and arguably playing better than him.

Yeah I haven't watched any of his tape from this year yet. I could be wrong but I don't think he played a ton of games there either, so small sample size could be a factor. Plus I don't think he ever practiced with the second team. Anyway I think one of the main thing driving his stock was his positional size, not necessarily the numbers.

I plan on looking into him and Kulboka at some point, I think they'll be in my top 60... even if I don't like Kurucs lol. I need to add more Intl players, especially with it looking like Goga may wait til 2019. That all pink scouting report for him was dope though lol.

Gotta check in on the other few I mentioned that I know nothing about. Not a fan of the others really in the ESPN top 100 I haven't already done. Are there any other Euro's you like?

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah I haven't watched any of his tape from this year yet. I could be wrong but I don't think he played a ton of games there either, so small sample size could be a factor. Plus I don't think he ever practiced with the second team. Anyway I think one of the main thing driving his stock was his positional size, not necessarily the numbers.

I plan on looking into him and Kulboka at some point, I think they'll be in my top 60... even if I don't like Kurucs lol. I need to add more Intl players, especially with it looking like Goga may wait til 2019. That all pink scouting report for him was dope though lol.

Gotta check in on the other few I mentioned that I know nothing about. Not a fan of the others really in the ESPN top 100 I haven't already done. Are there any other Euro's you like?

I think Doncic/Musa/Bonga/Goga are the interesting teenagers in this draft, with a pretty significant dropoff after them. Okobo is the clear king of the older prospects, with guys like Kuruks, Sedekerskis, Jallow, Hlinason, Kulboka, and Marinkovic either struggling against high-level competition or hardly facing high-level competition at all.

I hadn't heard of Noua, but he actually looks pretty interesting. Playing in the same league as Okobo, and actually just posted a career-high 23 points a couple days ago. Had 14/9 in a loss to Okobo's team last month. Had 7 dimes and 3 threes in another game a couple weeks ago. Undersized PF at 6'8" who may be under the radar because he doesn't really stand out in any way, at least statistically, but doesn't appear to have any serious holes in his game either. Glue guy potential? Hard to find any film on him...

I also wasn't aware of Birutis, and he also looks interesting...I'm typically skeptical of guys like him who've only played in weaker leagues (baltic/lithuanian league in this case), but it's hard to ignore how prolific and efficient he's been. Not many 7-footers shoot 72% from the line, and you can't fake that. Easy to imagine him developing into a very nice offensive player, but he could be too cripplingly slow defensively to hang at the NBA level.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

 

[CleveRocks]

New ESPN rankings. No change at the top besides DeAndre Hunter taken out.

Devon Hall appears at 48
Omari Spellman appears at 49 (not even sure he was in top 100 prior)
Kevin Huerter appears at 54
Ray Spalding up to 59
Rawle Alkins down to 62
Goga Bitadze down to 67 (I don't expect him to stay in)
Kenrich Williams makes first appearance at 90

Huerter might be my favorite player in the 2018 draft. He's a top 20 guy for me. Don't think he stays in though.

I like omari spellman..I think he is the Draymond Green of this draft

 

[Adam]

I like omari spellman..I think he is the Draymond Green of this draft

Draymond green is quickly turning into the new paul pierce, the go to comparison

 

[Nathan S]

To anyone who's followed Euro basketball closely over the years (or anyone willing to do some careful research), has any Euro player ever been as effective a pure scorer as Dzanan Musa this year at such a young age?

Roughly, the benchmarks we're looking at are 20 points/40 (Musa is averaging 21.7 across all formats, 20.8 in Eurocup), 60% true shooting (Musa is averaging 60.7% across all formats, 60.1% in Eurocup), ~1000 minutes played (Musa has played 1400 so far) at age 18 or younger (Musa turns 19 next week).

If he's the best pure scoring prospect ever to come out of Europe, how is he not a surefire lottery prospect? At least naively, he seems like one of the highest-ceiling players in the draft.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

To anyone who's followed Euro basketball closely over the years (or anyone willing to do some careful research), has any Euro player ever been as effective a pure scorer as Dzanan Musa this year at such a young age?

Roughly, the benchmarks we're looking at are 20 points/40 (Musa is averaging 21.7 across all formats, 20.8 in Eurocup), 60% true shooting (Musa is averaging 60.7% across all formats, 60.1% in Eurocup), ~1000 minutes played (Musa has played 1400 so far) at age 18 or younger (Musa turns 19 next week).

If he's the best pure scoring prospect ever to come out of Europe, how is he not a surefire lottery prospect? At least naively, he seems like one of the highest-ceiling players in the draft.

Better than fat Doncic!

He reminds me of a Ginobili/Fournier hybrid.

 

[Nathan S]

Better than fat Doncic!

He reminds me of a Ginobili/Fournier hybrid.

Haha, I'm ignoring Doncic when I ask that question (though I don't think it's totally crazy to think that Musa might be a better pure scorer than Doncic). Seems like Musa's shooting ability sets him apart from Manu and Fournier, at least at the same age. Unlimited range off the dribble, which is incredibly rare in a wing his age. He's a guy you really have to guard all the way out to 30 feet, and we've seen how big an advantage that is in the modern NBA.