2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[MirORich]

Who’s the Euro players rights we picked up in one of our deals this year?

Any chance we could trade his rights to one of the team teams with a ton of 2nd round picks this draft?

Or is that completely unrealistic?

 

[CleveRocks]

Draymond green is quickly turning into the new paul pierce, the go to comparison

I have not compared anyone to green other then spellman. But I will expound on my point spellman. He has a whole game. He has a nose for the ball, can hit a jumper, make a pass, wrestle a rebound, and make the steal. Green coming out of college was a puzzle because he did not fit the classic size expectations, but he had that whole game..which has translated into the NBA very well. I believe I saw the same properties in the tournament.. they have him projected at 24, but I think he is a sleeper in this draft..

 

[czvo]

Green was basically playing point for MSU by the time he left. I don't think he and Spellman are that much alike.

 

[Nathan S]

Who’s the Euro players rights we picked up in one of our deals this year?

Any chance we could trade his rights to one of the team teams with a ton of 2nd round picks this draft?

Or is that completely unrealistic?

Player is Arturas Gudaitis, and as I understand it his value hinges a lot on how much he wants to play in the NBA. If he really wants to play in the NBA and is willing to sign a cheap 3-year contract near the minimum (or similar), then he has some value, as he's likely better than any other big that would be available for the minimum. If he's fairly happy in Europe and would only make the jump for a contract in the 5/6M per year range (similar to what he could get in Europe after accounting for taxes), then he has very little value as NBA teams could just as easily sign a veteran NBA big for that price and get similar production.

Does anyone know if there's been talk about him actively wanting to come to the NBA? @Sir'Dom Pointer ?

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Player is Arturas Gudaitis, and as I understand it his value hinges a lot on how much he wants to play in the NBA. If he really wants to play in the NBA and is willing to sign a cheap 3-year contract near the minimum (or similar), then he has some value, as he's likely better than any other big that would be available for the minimum. If he's fairly happy in Europe and would only make the jump for a contract in the 5/6M per year range (similar to what he could get in Europe after accounting for taxes), then he has very little value as NBA teams could just as easily sign a veteran NBA big for that price and get similar production.

Does anyone know if there's been talk about him actively wanting to come to the NBA? @Sir'Dom Pointer ?

Not that I know of...

 

[CleveRocks]

Green was basically playing point for MSU by the time he left. I don't think he and Spellman are that much alike.

I understand your point of view, but during the tourney. Spellman made some very good reads and zippy passes, and when that wasn't there, got to the rim on his own. Just seemed to know where to be as the play developed..

It was interesting to see Nova this year in that on paper I did not think they were elite, but as a team, they were unstoppable..

This is a deep draft, I hope that if we trade Brooklyn pick, we stay in the first round.. if we wind up around 20, and spellman was still around, I think it would be a good fit..

 

[Los216]

View: https://twitter.com/TheStepien/status/991719945573613568

 

[Nathan S]

View: https://twitter.com/TheStepien/status/991719945573613568

Makes some good points...I think it boils down to this: if Mikal was a good-not-great defensive player at the college level, playing largely against guys who're younger, smaller, less athletic, less experienced that him, how will he suddenly be among the best wing defenders at the NBA level?

The best case scenario for him defensively as a rookie may be similar to what the Raps are getting from Anunoby right now...and he's actually a year older than Anunoby in spite of still being in college. Is that level of impact plus elite 3-point shooting worth a top-10 pick? I've gone back and forth, but right now I'm leaning back towards "no".

TheStepien is an amazing site btw...lots of great content/analysis.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Makes some good points...I think it boils down to this: if Mikal was a good-not-great defensive player at the college level, playing largely against guys who're younger, smaller, less athletic, less experienced that him, how will he suddenly be among the best wing defenders at the NBA level?

The best case scenario for him defensively as a rookie may be similar to what the Raps are getting from Anunoby right now...and he's actually a year older than Anunoby in spite of still being in college. Is that level of impact plus elite 3-point shooting worth a top-10 pick? I've gone back and forth, but right now I'm leaning back towards "no".

TheStepien is an amazing site btw...lots of great content/analysis.

I still have to read the article, probably will tonight... but OG is a legit defender. Mikal isn't on his level. Maybe better laterally. OG is already one of the better wing defenders in the league... Mikal doesn't have the body to check the bigger wings in the NBA.

And I've said this before but I'm sorta sick of the overvaluing of age with certain guys. I wish it was as simple as younger = more potential, but it's just not the case at all. It needs to be handled on a case by case basis. And the two guys that this comes up with over and over again is Mikal and Jontay Porter.

Mikal is so obviously on a different aging curve than 99% of basketball players. The guy wasn't even a top 75 recruit and wasn't invited to any of the big high school camps. Then his freshman year he only shot 29.9% from three. So from his age 18.5 season to his age 20.5 season he improved this much. That's clearly abnormal. So the stigma of drafting a guy that is already 21 just should not apply to him in the same way as your average 21 year old prospect. Like I said, I wish it was that easy to make blanket assumptions across every prospect with regards to his age.

I think that's the issue with draft models as a whole. Sure they can indicate that you're missing & overlooking some things - that's the main use of them to me, but trying to compact each and every player into one single value isn't the best way to go about things IMO. I think analytics are far more useful when you use them towards getting a better grasp on a player's certain specific attribute - like an NBA 3P% predictor. That's a conversation for another day though lol... though this age stuff is probably a big reason why you don't see him near the top of a draft model.

And then I've brought this up with Jontay before as well, but his young age overvalues him in draft models quite a bit. Again, you've got to take the age thing on a case-by-case basis with certain guys. Jontay is already developed in every single area that you expect the average 18 year old to vastly improve over the next several seasons. His room for improvement is different that that average 18 year old prospect because his weaknesses are far less fixable or something that should develop with age.

Like I said I haven't read the article and I don't know how much he goes into his age advantage, but I had to get that rant off lol. And lastly I don't think he had any athletic advantage at all relative to a typical wing entering the draft. I'll read it tonight lol.

 

[Nathan S]

I still have to read the article, probably will tonight... but OG is a legit defender. Mikal isn't on his level. Maybe better laterally. OG is already one of the better wing defenders in the league... Mikal doesn't have the body to check the bigger wings in the NBA.

And I've said this before but I'm sorta sick of the overvaluing of age with certain guys. I wish it was as simple as younger = more potential, but it's just not the case at all. It needs to be handled on a case by case basis. And the two guys that this comes up with over and over again is Mikal and Jontay Porter.

Mikal is so obviously on a different aging curve than 99% of basketball players. The guy wasn't even a top 75 recruit and wasn't invited to any of the big high school camps. Then his freshman year he only shot 29.9% from three. So from his age 18.5 season to his age 20.5 season he improved this much. That's clearly abnormal. So the stigma of drafting a guy that is already 21 just should not apply to him in the same way as your average 21 year old prospect. Like I said, I wish it was that easy to make blanket assumptions across every prospect with regards to his age.

I think that's the issue with draft models as a whole. Sure they can indicate that you're missing & overlooking some things - that's the main use of them to me, but trying to compact each and every player into one single value isn't the best way to go about things IMO. I think analytics are far more useful when you use them towards getting a better grasp on a player's certain specific attribute - like an NBA 3P% predictor. That's a conversation for another day though lol... though this age stuff is probably a big reason why you don't see him near the top of a draft model.

And then I've brought this up with Jontay before as well, but his young age overvalues him in draft models quite a bit. Again, you've got to take the age thing on a case-by-case basis with certain guys. Jontay is already developed in every single area that you expect the average 18 year old to vastly improve over the next several seasons. His room for improvement is different that that average 18 year old prospect because his weaknesses are far less fixable or something that should develop with age.

Like I said I haven't read the article and I don't know how much he goes into his age advantage, but I had to get that rant off lol. And lastly I don't think he had any athletic advantage at all relative to a typical wing entering the draft. I'll read it tonight lol.

I don't think our evaluations of Mikal are terribly far apart, at least on defense, where I see him as a guy who will be a plus team defender and good enough to hold his own against a wide variety of offensive threats, but not a likely all-defensive teamer or defensive anchor. If that's who he is on defense, and he's more of a high-efficiency 3rd/4th option on offense than a potential leading guy, then that's probably not worth a top-10 pick to me, not in this draft.

Comparing Mikal to Jontay is such an apples-to-oranges thing that I'm not sure we'll get anywhere, but I don't think he's nearly reached the limits of his development.

In particular, at an age when most elite players his size are just starting to show flashes of an outside shot, he's a step ahead, showing flashes of ability to shoot off the dribble from deep. That ability would make him a very difficult player to guard; even "skilled" bigs typically are reluctant to put the ball on the floor from the perimeter, and have limited options when they do.

Additionally, at an age when most elite players his size are learning how to make simple, textbook passes to keep the offense moving without turning the ball over, he's again a step ahead, often acting as a focal point in the offense, recognizing that he can use his size to see over the defense, and actively trying to get the ball to guys in advantageous positions rather than simply passing the ball back out to a guard who can reset the offense. Bigs who can reliably orchestrate an efficient offense are still a great rarity in the NBA, and defenses haven't really developed effective countermeasures yet.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I don't think our evaluations of Mikal are terribly far apart, at least on defense, where I see him as a guy who will be a plus team defender and good enough to hold his own against a wide variety of offensive threats, but not a likely all-defensive teamer or defensive anchor. If that's who he is on defense, and he's more of a high-efficiency 3rd/4th option on offense than a potential leading guy, then that's probably not worth a top-10 pick to me, not in this draft.

Comparing Mikal to Jontay is such an apples-to-oranges thing that I'm not sure we'll get anywhere, but I don't think he's nearly reached the limits of his development.

In particular, at an age when most elite players his size are just starting to show flashes of an outside shot, he's a step ahead, showing flashes of ability to shoot off the dribble from deep. That ability would make him a very difficult player to guard; even "skilled" bigs typically are reluctant to put the ball on the floor from the perimeter, and have limited options when they do.

Additionally, at an age when most elite players his size are learning how to make simple, textbook passes to keep the offense moving without turning the ball over, he's again a step ahead, often acting as a focal point in the offense, recognizing that he can use his size to see over the defense, and actively trying to get the ball to guys in advantageous positions rather than simply passing the ball back out to a guard who can reset the offense. Bigs who can reliably orchestrate an efficient offense are still a great rarity in the NBA, and defenses haven't really developed effective countermeasures yet.

Yeah I just read his article and agree with all of the points that he made, just come to a different conclusion. Even with all of those issues he is not only a top 10 guy for me, but top 5 in this draft.

I also think that too much time was spent on his switching UP ability. I don't think a ton of people are arguing that he can switch onto 4's and 5's. However, he didn't really bring up his ability to switch DOWN onto ball handlers - one of his bigger strengths. It far more ability to be able to switch down onto guards than up onto bigs IMO. And in today's NBA there's not a ton of those ground and pound 4s. There's way more in the NCAA. the clips he used in particular to illustrate his struggles were vs Angel Delgado and Marcus Derrickson ... two of the strongest guys in the entire NCAA.

I wasn't comparing Mikal and Jontay. Just giving two concrete examples of outliers on the age curve - one in each direction.

And you're proving my point when discussing Jontay's strengths. He's so far ahead in those certain areas relative to an average 18 year old prospect. That's what makes him such a great prospect. My point is that his weaknesses (athleticism, avg positional size, etc) are not things that are likely to improve with age. Meanwhile most 18 year olds aren't even CLOSE to doing the things that Jontay does. But these things are traits that are developable over time (unlike athleticism, positional size, etc.)

Jontay is reaping the same benefits of being an 18 year old in draft models as those prospects that have tons of room to grow in areas that are most often improved. That's my point.

Also I checked the numbers and he took 6 jump shots off the dribble outside of the paint all season and made 3 of them. He was 1 for 1 on threes off the dribble last year.

Don't get me wrong, I love Jontay.. just trying to explain why I dislike the level of influence that age has in draft models for certain players.

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah I just read his article and agree with all of the points that he made, just come to a different conclusion. Even with all of those issues he is not only a top 10 guy for me, but top 5 in this draft.

I also think that too much time was spent on his switching UP ability. I don't think a ton of people are arguing that he can switch onto 4's and 5's. However, he didn't really bring up his ability to switch DOWN onto ball handlers - one of his bigger strengths. It far more ability to be able to switch down onto guards than up onto bigs IMO. And in today's NBA there's not a ton of those ground and pound 4s. There's way more in the NCAA. the clips he used in particular to illustrate his struggles were vs Angel Delgado and Marcus Derrickson ... two of the strongest guys in the entire NCAA.

I wasn't comparing Mikal and Jontay. Just giving two concrete examples of outliers on the age curve - one in each direction.

I agree with all this. Still a bubble top-10 guy for me though, simply because there are a lot of other prospects I find equally interesting.

And you're proving my point when discussing Jontay's strengths. He's so far ahead in those certain areas relative to an average 18 year old prospect. That's what makes him such a great prospect. My point is that his weaknesses (athleticism, avg positional size, etc) are not things that are likely to improve with age. Meanwhile most 18 year olds aren't even CLOSE to doing the things that Jontay does. But these things are traits that are developable over time (unlike athleticism, positional size, etc.)

Jontay is reaping the same benefits of being an 18 year old in draft models as those prospects that have tons of room to grow in areas that are most often improved. That's my point.

I agree with some of this. Some areas of Jontay's game will likely always be weaknesses. However, that doesn't preclude him from being a star. How many players in the NBA genuinely have no identifiable weaknesses?

Furthermore, while I agree that other prospects can improve as shooters/ballhandlers/creators over time, they're far less likely than Jontay to become elite in those areas.

Also I checked the numbers and he took 6 jump shots off the dribble outside of the paint all season and made 3 of them. He was 1 for 1 on threes off the dribble last year.

Don't get me wrong, I love Jontay.. just trying to explain why I dislike the level of influence that age has in draft models for certain players.

The low volume here isn't a surprise to me; it's the fact that he's willing and able to shoot off the dribble at all that makes him interesting. Virtually no other big his age (and relatively few wings his age) even think about shooting off the dribble, and on the rare occasion when they do their form typically breaks down in some grotesque way (I'm ignoring fadeaway jumpers out of the post here, which I feel are quite different and usually not translatable to face-up situations).

 

[Derek]

I understand your point of view, but during the tourney. Spellman made some very good reads and zippy passes, and when that wasn't there, got to the rim on his own. Just seemed to know where to be as the play developed..

It was interesting to see Nova this year in that on paper I did not think they were elite, but as a team, they were unstoppable..

This is a deep draft, I hope that if we trade Brooklyn pick, we stay in the first round.. if we wind up around 20, and spellman was still around, I think it would be a good fit..

You were looking at the wrong paper

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I agree with all this. Still a bubble top-10 guy for me though, simply because there are a lot of other prospects I find equally interesting.



I agree with some of this. Some areas of Jontay's game will likely always be weaknesses. However, that doesn't preclude him from being a star. How many players in the NBA genuinely have no identifiable weaknesses?

Furthermore, while I agree that other prospects can improve as shooters/ballhandlers/creators over time, they're far less likely than Jontay to become elite in those areas.



The low volume here isn't a surprise to me; it's the fact that he's willing and able to shoot off the dribble at all that makes him interesting. Virtually no other big his age (and relatively few wings his age) even think about shooting off the dribble, and on the rare occasion when they do their form typically breaks down in some grotesque way (I'm ignoring fadeaway jumpers out of the post here, which I feel are quite different and usually not translatable to face-up situations).

I still think Jontay can become a near star level player. Yes, players are unlikely to become elite in areas Jontay thrives in, but Jontay is equally unlikely to become elite in the areas he struggles with.

9 total shots off the dribble doesn't exactly illustrate willingness to me hahaha. I don't have the video but I'd imagine a good number of those were late clock too. His mechanics though are compact enough that he can develop that eventually.

I think the key to the whole age thing is just to run the model normally, and then run it without age being a factor. See which players have the largest disparity between the two rankings and go through them on a case-by-case basis like this and evaluate whether or not they will improve at a level as your average prospect.

 

[Nathan S]

I still think Jontay can become a near star level player. Yes, players are unlikely to become elite in areas Jontay thrives in, but Jontay is equally unlikely to become elite in the areas he struggles with.

9 total shots off the dribble doesn't exactly illustrate willingness to me hahaha. I don't have the video but I'd imagine a good number of those were late clock too. His mechanics though are compact enough that he can develop that eventually.

I think the key to the whole age thing is just to run the model normally, and then run it without age being a factor. See which players have the largest disparity between the two rankings and go through them on a case-by-case basis like this and evaluate whether or not they will improve at a level as your average prospect.

Again, I don't think Jontay will end up elite in every area, and that's ok, he doesn't have to be LeBron to be worth a top-10 pick. I'm just pointing out areas in which he has the potential to become elite, and arguing that if he does indeed live up to his potential in those areas, he could be a star in spite of having weaknesses elsewhere.