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2018 NBA Draft - June 21

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Player is Arturas Gudaitis, and as I understand it his value hinges a lot on how much he wants to play in the NBA. If he really wants to play in the NBA and is willing to sign a cheap 3-year contract near the minimum (or similar), then he has some value, as he's likely better than any other big that would be available for the minimum. If he's fairly happy in Europe and would only make the jump for a contract in the 5/6M per year range (similar to what he could get in Europe after accounting for taxes), then he has very little value as NBA teams could just as easily sign a veteran NBA big for that price and get similar production.

Does anyone know if there's been talk about him actively wanting to come to the NBA? @Sir'Dom Pointer ?

He has an out in 2019 and appears willing to come to Cleveland this summer to participate in workouts. His buyout in 2019 is $650K. That's a fairly low buyout for a contract that ends in 2021, so I'd guess he is willing to come over. Most of that can be paid by a team to bring him over.
 
Anyone watch Devon Hall much at Virginia this year? Hearing some minor buzz about him lately.
 
New ESPN top 10 today.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Luka Doncic
3. Marvin Bagley III
4. Jaren Jackson Jr
5. Mohamed Bamba
6. Trae Young
7. Wendell Carter Jr
8. Michael Porter Jr
9. Collin Sexton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Miles Bridges


Wasn't posted in here yet, but Mo Bamba has totally changed his jump shot. For those that don't know, he's working with the same trainer that helped Jayson Tatum refine his shot last year.


He's pretty much a lock to go top 6 at this point
 
New ESPN top 10 today.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Luka Doncic
3. Marvin Bagley III
4. Jaren Jackson Jr
5. Mohamed Bamba
6. Trae Young
7. Wendell Carter Jr
8. Michael Porter Jr
9. Collin Sexton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Miles Bridges


Wasn't posted in here yet, but Mo Bamba has totally changed his jump shot. For those that don't know, he's working with the same trainer that helped Jayson Tatum refine his shot last year.


He's pretty much a lock to go top 6 at this point

I've cooled considerably on Sexton after watching Clarkson self-destruct in the playoffs this year. Is that a totally-unfair comp for him?

Also, I'll reiterate that Bamba being a consensus top-6 pick doesn't actually make him a lock to go top 6. He could still easily slide if teams in the 5-7 range happen to be high on guys like Young and Porter. He could also easily go #2 or perhaps even #1 overall if a team picking there totally falls in love with him. This is probably one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent history.
 
I'm making a template which I'll use to post evaluations of all the top prospects. The basic idea is to split offense and defense into three sub-categories, roughly perimeter, interior, and "team." For each sub-category, I'll mathematically calculate a rating based on my statistical model and a handful of box-score "cues." These rating will range from 1 to 10, attempting to forecast peak NBA performance in the sub-category. I'll then refine that rating based on a handful of "advanced cues" which go beyond the box score to look at synergy-type data and eye test impressions.


Ultimately, prospect ratings will then have sections that look like:

----

Perimeter offense - simple rating: X/10 - advanced rating: X/10

(comments on perimeter offense, especially if there's a significant discrepancy between simple/advanced ratings)

----

My overall template is below...I appreciate any comments/advice! I'll plan to make ratings for a few players per day. For many players I won't have enough information to fully address the advanced cues; I'll note when that's the case and possibly update at a later date.


Offense:

-Perimeter Scoring
  • Basic cues - 3-point volume
    • Players who make the most threes are usually the best pure shooters, though their percentages may lag behind their lower-volume peers due to the higher degree of difficulty that typically comes with high-volume shooting.
  • Advanced cues - 3-point accuracy adjusted for shot difficulty, shot diversity, shooting form, free throw percentage
-Interior Scoring
  • Basic cues - Free throw volume, offensive rebound rate
    • Players who dominate the paint typically rank high in these statistics. A high free throw rate indicates suggests that the player attracts a lot of defensive attention inside the arc, while a high offensive rebound rate suggests athletic dominance, which elite prospects should be able to show at the college level. 2-point volume+accuracy a relatively poor indicator, probably because average 2-point shot difficulty varies way too much from one player to another.
  • Advanced cues - 2-point accuracy adjusted for shot difficulty, shot diversity, above-the-rim finishing ability, ballhandling ability and footwork
-Team offense
  • Basic cues - Assist rate, Assist:TO ratio, steal rate
  • Advanced cues - Passing accuracy adjusted for pass difficulty, pass diversity and creativity, top-level orchestration, off-ball IQ, leadership and mental makeup, creating transition opportunities and decision making on the break
    • Top-level orchestration refers to a player's ability to "run the offense" effectively by recognizing defensive schemes, strengths, and weaknesses, and initiating plays accordingly. Sparking fast break opportunities (with a steal or otherwise) isn't always thought of as an offensive skill, but I'm treating it as such here.
Defense:

-Perimeter defense
  • Basic cues - Steal rate, foul rate
    • Counterintuitively, college foul rate is positively correlated with defensive success at the NBA level. The willingness to play with high intensity/physicality to the point of occasionally committing fouls is generally a positive sign, at least to a point.
  • Advanced cues - Lateral agility + length to contain, Hands to make ballhandlers uncomfortable and disrupt dribble drives
-Interior defense
  • Basic cues - Offensive rebound rate, block rate, foul rate, height
    • Offensive rather is a good indicator for NBA defensive success presumably because it's a good proxy for contested rebound rate (defensive rebounds, in contrast, are largely uncontested).
  • Advanced cues - Strength and toughness holding ground in the post and on box outs, "nose for the ball" to get rebounds/strips in traffic, length and timing to block/alter shots around the rim,
-Team defense
  • Basic cues - Assist:TO ratio, steal rate, block rate (edited to add block rate)
    • Preventing opponent transition opportunities by taking care of the ball isn't always thought of as a defensive skill, but I'm treating it as such here. Assists may also be an indicator for general basketball IQ which is applicable on defense as well as on offense.
  • Advanced cues - Anticipating passes/cuts/drives in order to disrupt plays or cause a turnover, understanding schemes and switching quickly and appropriately, off-ball IQ to track man while maintaining awareness of ballhandler, leadership and mental makeup
 
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Luka Doncic

Perimeter offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10

Very high shooting volume reflects his go-to scorer role. Capable of elevating and getting a shot up with good form from anywhere in the halfcourt. Continued improvement in accuracy off the dribble and a quicker release should come with time.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Led Euroleague in free throw rate. Can struggle to get past quicker defenders, but combination of rapidly improving handle and size give him significant upside in this area. Shooting nearly 60% on 2-pointers and had his shot blocked only 6 times in 31 Euroleague games, using a dizzying array of fakes as well as the threat of his passing ability to outwit shot blockers again and again. Flashes of above-the-rim finishing ability in traffic, but not naturally a strong finisher. Uses his size and length to follow his misses.

Team offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10+/10

Simply a prodigy. Natural intuition for how to get the most out of the talent around him and get everyone involved. Good velocity, timing on routine passes, great passing out of traps and to break the press. Unteachable ability to trick defenders with his eyes, frequently opening angles by looking away from his target even when under duress.

Total offense - 29/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 7/10

Above-average combination of length, strength, and lateral quickness for a wing. Competitive in one-on-one situations; wants to body up, good anticipation contesting shots. Lack of elite quicks limits his potential as lockdown defender.

Interior defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Strong enough to hold his own in the post, but fairly ineffective contesting shots around the rim. Plus defensive rebounder for a wing, but struggles vertically when matched up against bigs.

Team defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 7/10

Good feel for the game overall; knows how to jump passing lanes, how to help and recover. Good at limiting careless, live-ball turnovers on offense. Lapses stand out some due to the greater age/experience of his teammates, but they seem mostly correctable. Coach trusts him enough to leave him in on late game offense-for-defense subs. Can be lackadaisical chasing shooters off the ball, which could be a problem in the NBA. Nonexistent shot blocker in help defense, which will be a weakness if he plays PF defensively.

Total defense - 19/30


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Jaren Jackson Jr.

Perimeter offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10

Rapidly developing jumpshot could make him a unique offensive threat for his position. Potential to be a big-time scorer from the perimeter, not just a floor spacer. Questionable mechanics suggest he may never have dead-eye accuracy, but high 3-point and free throw percentages are good reasons for optimism.

Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 8/10

Plays more like a giant wing than a big. Flashes of ability to face up and drive with a good first step and long strides. Unorthodox skillset could make him a uniquely difficult player to defend. Out of control at times, but has natural quickness with and without the ball that's rare in players his size.

Team offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10

Just an adequate passer for a young big man, an area of his game he'll be forced to develop if and when defenses start to hone in on him. Pretty good instincts finding soft spots in the defense to put himself in position for open shots and easy finishes. Good at setting screens? Could use some help in this section.

Total offense - 20/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10/10

Huge wingspan and quick feet make him an excellent perimeter defender. No problem switching onto guards.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Great size and length with the shot-blocking instincts to put them to use. May be too weak to handle big NBA centers right away, but has a frame that should naturally fill out over the next couple years.

Team defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 9/10

Ridiculously good instincts/understanding of the game for such a young player. Rotates flawlessly, and sniffs out plays to come up with blocks that most bigs would be out of position for. Just-ok defensive rebounding numbers, but that seems to be more a result of team strategy (have him focus on contesting shots, other bigs rotate to box out) than a lack of ability. Leadership? Could use some help here too.


Total defense - 28/30
 
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New ESPN top 10 today.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Luka Doncic
3. Marvin Bagley III
4. Jaren Jackson Jr
5. Mohamed Bamba
6. Trae Young
7. Wendell Carter Jr
8. Michael Porter Jr
9. Collin Sexton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Miles Bridges


Wasn't posted in here yet, but Mo Bamba has totally changed his jump shot. For those that don't know, he's working with the same trainer that helped Jayson Tatum refine his shot last year.


He's pretty much a lock to go top 6 at this point

Not quite the same type of fottwork and fluidity that Embiid showcased in his workouts, but there’s a lot of potential there, especially with hisnshot and release. Can he become a Gobertish /Gobertlite defender WITH a three point shot and good free throw shooting AND become a roll man like Capella is?
 
Luka Doncic

Perimeter offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10

Very high shooting volume reflects his go-to scorer role. Capable of elevating and getting a shot up with good form from anywhere in the halfcourt. Continued improvement in accuracy off the dribble and a quicker release should come with time.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Led Euroleague in free throw rate. Can struggle to get past quicker defenders, but combination of rapidly improving handle and size give him significant upside in this area. Shooting nearly 60% on 2-pointers and had his shot blocked only 6 times in 31 Euroleague games, using a dizzying array of fakes as well as the threat of his passing ability to outwit shot blockers again and again. Flashes of above-the-rim finishing ability in traffic, but not naturally a strong finisher. Uses his size and length to follow his misses.

Team offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10+/10

Simply a prodigy. Natural intuition for how to get the most out of the talent around him and get everyone involved. Good velocity, timing on routine passes, great passing out of traps and to break the press. Unteachable ability to trick defenders with his eyes, frequently opening angles by looking away from his target even when under duress.

Total offense - 29/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 7/10

Above-average combination of length, strength, and lateral quickness for a wing. Competitive in one-on-one situations; wants to body up, good anticipation contesting shots. Lack of elite quicks limits his potential as lockdown defender.

Interior defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Strong enough to hold his own in the post, but fairly ineffective contesting shots around the rim. Plus defensive rebounder for a wing, but struggles vertically when matched up against bigs.

Team defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 7/10

Good feel for the game overall; knows how to jump passing lanes, how to help and recover. Good at limiting careless, live-ball turnovers on offense. Lapses stand out some due to the greater age/experience of his teammates, but they seem mostly correctable. Coach trusts him enough to leave him in on late game offense-for-defense subs. Can be lackadaisical chasing shooters off the ball, which could be a problem in the NBA. Nonexistent shot blocker in help defense, which will be a weakness if he plays PF defensively.

Total defense - 19/30


------------------------------------------


Jaren Jackson Jr.

Perimeter offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10

Rapidly developing jumpshot could make him a unique offensive threat for his position. Potential to be a big-time scorer from the perimeter, not just a floor spacer. Questionable mechanics suggest he may never have dead-eye accuracy, but high 3-point and free throw percentages are good reasons for optimism.

Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 8/10

Plays more like a giant wing than a big. Flashes of ability to face up and drive with a good first step and long strides. Unorthodox skillset could make him a uniquely difficult player to defend. Out of control at times, but has natural quickness with and without the ball that's rare in players his size.

Team offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10

Just an adequate passer for a young big man, an area of his game he'll be forced to develop if and when defenses start to hone in on him. Pretty good instincts finding soft spots in the defense to put himself in position for open shots and easy finishes. Good at setting screens? Could use some help in this section.

Total offense - 20/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10/10

Huge wingspan and quick feet make him an excellent perimeter defender. No problem switching onto guards.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Great size and length with the shot-blocking instincts to put them to use. May be too weak to handle big NBA centers right away, but has a frame that should naturally fill out over the next couple years.

Team defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 9/10

Ridiculously good instincts/understanding of the game for such a young player. Rotates flawlessly, and sniffs out plays to come up with blocks that most bigs would be out of position for. Just-ok defensive rebounding numbers, but that seems to be more a result of team strategy (have him focus on contesting shots, other bigs rotate to box out) than a lack of ability. Leadership? Could use some help here too.


Total defense - 28/30

One of the most intriguing things in this draft to me is JJJ's handling ability. Don't have a real good sense for it. I'd mention his finishing somewhere on his offense. That's one of the main questions for his game I think. He shot 52.3% at the rim, which is in the 52nd %tile, but pretty bad for a big. Especially considering he was bigger than most 4's he matched up against.


Not quite the same type of fottwork and fluidity that Embiid showcased in his workouts, but there’s a lot of potential there, especially with hisnshot and release. Can he become a Gobertish /Gobertlite defender WITH a three point shot and good free throw shooting AND become a roll man like Capella is?

Yeah not sure I'd ever want to give him post up possessions or ISOs.

I'm most interested in how he is as a roll man. He was garbage with that on a small sample at Texas, but they had 0 floor spacing whatsoever. Plus he doesn't get enough credit for it, but he has the best FG% at the rim of anyone I've looked at in my top 50. Capela is one of the best, so I doubt he gets to that level.
 
One of the most intriguing things in this draft to me is JJJ's handling ability. Don't have a real good sense for it. I'd mention his finishing somewhere on his offense. That's one of the main questions for his game I think. He shot 52.3% at the rim, which is in the 52nd %tile, but pretty bad for a big. Especially considering he was bigger than most 4's he matched up against.

I felt the same way initially about Jackson's finishing, but thestepien wrote a great article on the topic concluding that his percentage was low largely because he attempted a lot of dribble drives (1.34 per 40 min, compared to 0.21 for Ayton, 0.14 for Bamba, 0.13 for Carter) and was inefficient on those possessions (36% shooting). If you subtract off those possessions, his efficiency as a finisher isn't unusually low.

Of course, as thestepien also notes in that article, it's very interesting that Jackson made these relatively frequent attempts to create off the dribble. He's not good enough at it to be dangerous yet, but he's ahead of the curve in his development. If he refines this skill over time, which seems reasonably likely given his age and his natural fluidity, it could make him a real offensive star rather than just the stretch-5 roleplayer many pundits seem to see in him.
 
Big game for Bonga today. Helped his team with 10 points (5/9 shooting), 6 boards, and 2 dimes in an improbable game 2 win in their first round playoff series against #1 seed Bayern Munich.

Okobo in action now, going up against a familiar name in Aaron Craft as his team fights for a spot in the French league playoffs.

EDIT: Okobo ended up having a big game too as his team pulled out a crucial 1-point win. 16 points (6/9 shooting) and 8 assists including a key 4-point play on Craft with a minute left.
 
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Jarrey Foster announced he's going back to SMU. I know there were a lot of people high on him. Has great size for a 3/4, but a questionable shot and torn ACL.

Think he stated he'd stay in if he got a 2nd round promise.

Big game for Bonga today. Helped his team with 10 points (5/9 shooting), 6 boards, and 2 dimes in an improbable game 2 win in their first round playoff series against #1 seed Bayern Munich.

Okobo in action now, going up against a familiar name in Aaron Craft as his team fights for a spot in the French league playoffs.

EDIT: Okobo ended up having a big game too as his team pulled out a crucial 1-point win. 16 points (6/9 shooting) and 8 assists including a key 4-point play on Craft with a minute left.

Still plenty of room on the Okobo late lottery bandwagon lol all are welcome.
 
Wendell Carter JR

Perimeter offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 4/10

Decent mechanics and efficiency on a small volume of attempts from 3. Reasonably likely to develop an NBA-range set shot, but probably will a 1-dimensional scorer at best from behind the arc.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Very skilled for his age with NBA size and athleticism. Has quick feet in small spaces and likes to throw his weight around, allowing him to outmaneuver defenders and work his way into advantageous positions. Has some ballhandling ability, but much more comfortable operating in the low post than out on the perimeter.

Team offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 5/10

Really good basketball IQ for a young big. Surrounded by offensive talent at Duke, he showed a good team-first attitude, keeping his head up when he had the ball and making smart passes to keep the offense humming. Does the little things to help create driving lanes for guards. In the long run, seems like a guy who could thrive in a second-banana role alongside a ball-dominant perimeter star.

Total offense - 18/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 5/10

Largely untested on the perimeter thanks to Duke's zone defense. Reasonably nimble for a big, and good steal rate is a positive sign, but not a catlike athlete in space like Jackson.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 10/10

Rock solid 1-on-1 defender inside thanks to his strong, chiseled frame, high IQ, and good reflexes. Makes it hard for opposing bigs to get to their spots, positions himself well to deny strong moves to the basket. Good hands make him a threat to poke the ball away on entry passes and in the post.

Team defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 7/10

Somewhat hard to evaluate due to Duke's zone defense, but positive signs. Not overly long or athletic, but covers ground well to get a hand up and bother shots around the rim. Doesn't bite on fakes; knows it's better to give up a hand-in-the-face 10 footer than to let the guard drive past him and finish with a layup. Confident enough to show some leadership.

Total defense - 22/30


-----------------------------------


Zhaire Smith

Perimeter offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 5/10

Limited to catch-and-shoot 3's, though he's made significant strides in that department over the last year. Good mechanics suggest there's at least an outside chance of him developing a more diverse perimeter game in the future.

Interior offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 8/10

Not a great ballhandler at the moment, but very dangerous when he gets a step on his man going to the basket, as his combination of strength, speed, and explosiveness makes it almost impossible for defenders to recover and contest. Puts stress on rotating bigs with his ability to elevate quickly in traffic for alley-oops.

Team offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Upside as a creator somewhat limited due to below-average ballhandling ability, but a very smart passer given the opportunity. Willing, strong screen setter; shows good intuition for how to disrupt defensive rotations, then pick the right moment to dive to the rim. Hustle plays on defense and on 50/50 balls lead to transition opportunities and easy looks for his teammates. Selfless, team-first attitude.

Total offense - 20/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 9/10

Ideal physical tools to defend all three perimeter positions, with the speed to stay with quick guards and the length/strength to battle big wings. Just-ok steal rate possibly due to his spending significant time playing PF defensively, but does reflect the fact that he doesn't have particularly quick hands on the perimeter.

Interior defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Not at all easy to shoot over or overpower, but ultimately limited by his size if tasked with guarding bigs at the NBA level. Can be a little too over-eager and bite on fakes.

Team defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 7/10

A serious shot blocking threat; flies around on defense to bother shots and break up plays. Can legitimately switch 1-5; good enough length and athleticism to deny the entry pass to bigs. Tendency to try to do too much at times leaves shooters open, which more polished NBA offenses will try to take advantage of.

Total defense - 23/30

Luka Doncic

Perimeter offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10

Very high shooting volume reflects his go-to scorer role. Capable of elevating and getting a shot up with good form from anywhere in the halfcourt. Continued improvement in accuracy off the dribble and a quicker release should come with time.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Led Euroleague in free throw rate. Can struggle to get past quicker defenders, but combination of rapidly improving handle and size give him significant upside in this area. Shooting nearly 60% on 2-pointers and had his shot blocked only 6 times in 31 Euroleague games, using a dizzying array of fakes as well as the threat of his passing ability to outwit shot blockers again and again. Flashes of above-the-rim finishing ability in traffic, but not naturally a strong finisher. Uses his size and length to follow his misses.

Team offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10+/10

Simply a prodigy. Natural intuition for how to get the most out of the talent around him and get everyone involved. Good velocity, timing on routine passes, great passing out of traps and to break the press. Unteachable ability to trick defenders with his eyes, frequently opening angles by looking away from his target even when under duress.

Total offense - 29/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 7/10

Above-average combination of length, strength, and lateral quickness for a wing. Competitive in one-on-one situations; wants to body up, good anticipation contesting shots. Lack of elite quicks limits his potential as lockdown defender.

Interior defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Strong enough to hold his own in the post, but fairly ineffective contesting shots around the rim. Plus defensive rebounder for a wing, but struggles vertically when matched up against bigs.

Team defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 7/10

Good feel for the game overall; knows how to jump passing lanes, how to help and recover. Good at limiting careless, live-ball turnovers on offense. Lapses stand out some due to the greater age/experience of his teammates, but they seem mostly correctable. Coach trusts him enough to leave him in on late game offense-for-defense subs. Can be lackadaisical chasing shooters off the ball, which could be a problem in the NBA. Nonexistent shot blocker in help defense, which will be a weakness if he plays PF defensively.

Total defense - 19/30


------------------------------------------


Jaren Jackson Jr.

Perimeter offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10

Rapidly developing jumpshot could make him a unique offensive threat for his position. Potential to be a big-time scorer from the perimeter, not just a floor spacer. Questionable mechanics suggest he may never have dead-eye accuracy, but high 3-point and free throw percentages are good reasons for optimism.

Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 8/10

Plays more like a giant wing than a big. Flashes of ability to face up and drive with a good first step and long strides. Unorthodox skillset could make him a uniquely difficult player to defend. Out of control at times, but has natural quickness with and without the ball that's rare in players his size.

Team offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10

Just an adequate passer for a young big man, an area of his game he'll be forced to develop if and when defenses start to hone in on him. Pretty good instincts finding soft spots in the defense to put himself in position for open shots and easy finishes. Good at setting screens? Could use some help in this section.

Total offense - 20/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10/10

Huge wingspan and quick feet make him an excellent perimeter defender. No problem switching onto guards.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Great size and length with the shot-blocking instincts to put them to use. May be too weak to handle big NBA centers right away, but has a frame that should naturally fill out over the next couple years.

Team defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 9/10

Ridiculously good instincts/understanding of the game for such a young player. Rotates flawlessly, and sniffs out plays to come up with blocks that most bigs would be out of position for. Just-ok defensive rebounding numbers, but that seems to be more a result of team strategy (have him focus on contesting shots, other bigs rotate to box out) than a lack of ability. Leadership? Could use some help here too.


Total defense - 28/30
 
6 players done:

Luka Doncic (48/60 overall)

Perimeter offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10

Very high shooting volume reflects his go-to scorer role. Capable of elevating and getting a shot up with good form from anywhere in the halfcourt. Continued improvement in accuracy off the dribble and a quicker release should come with time.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Led Euroleague in free throw rate. Can struggle to get past quicker defenders, but combination of rapidly improving handle and size give him significant upside in this area. Shooting nearly 60% on 2-pointers and had his shot blocked only 6 times in 31 Euroleague games, using a dizzying array of fakes as well as the threat of his passing ability to outwit shot blockers again and again. Flashes of above-the-rim finishing ability in traffic, but not naturally a strong finisher. Uses his size and length to follow his misses.

Team offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10+/10

Simply a prodigy. Natural intuition for how to get the most out of the talent around him and get everyone involved. Good velocity, timing on routine passes, great passing out of traps and to break the press. Unteachable ability to trick defenders with his eyes, frequently opening angles by looking away from his target even when under duress.

Total offense - 29/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 7/10

Above-average combination of length, strength, and lateral quickness for a wing. Competitive in one-on-one situations; wants to body up, good anticipation contesting shots. Lack of elite quicks limits his potential as lockdown defender.

Interior defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Strong enough to hold his own in the post, but fairly ineffective contesting shots around the rim. Plus defensive rebounder for a wing, but struggles vertically when matched up against bigs.

Team defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 7/10

Good feel for the game overall; knows how to jump passing lanes, how to help and recover. Good at limiting careless, live-ball turnovers on offense. Lapses stand out some due to the greater age/experience of his teammates, but they seem mostly correctable. Coach trusts him enough to leave him in on late game offense-for-defense subs. Can be lackadaisical chasing shooters off the ball, which could be a problem in the NBA. Nonexistent shot blocker in help defense, which will be a weakness if he plays PF defensively.

Total defense - 19/30

Jaren Jackson (48/60 overall)

Perimeter offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 8/10

Rapidly developing jumpshot could make him a unique offensive threat for his position. Potential to be a big-time scorer from the perimeter, not just a floor spacer. Questionable mechanics suggest he may never have dead-eye accuracy, but high 3-point and free throw percentages are good reasons for optimism.

Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 8/10

Plays more like a giant wing than a big. Flashes of ability to face up and drive with a good first step and long strides. Unorthodox skillset could make him a uniquely difficult player to defend. Out of control at times, but has natural quickness with and without the ball that's rare in players his size.

Team offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10

Just an adequate passer for a young big man, an area of his game he'll be forced to develop if and when defenses start to hone in on him. Pretty good instincts finding soft spots in the defense to put himself in position for open shots and easy finishes. Good at setting screens? Could use some help in this section.

Total offense - 20/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10/10

Huge wingspan and quick feet make him an excellent perimeter defender. No problem switching onto guards.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Great size and length with the shot-blocking instincts to put them to use. May be too weak to handle big NBA centers right away, but has a frame that should naturally fill out over the next couple years.

Team defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 9/10

Ridiculously good instincts/understanding of the game for such a young player. Rotates flawlessly, and sniffs out plays to come up with blocks that most bigs would be out of position for. Just-ok defensive rebounding numbers, but that seems to be more a result of team strategy (have him focus on contesting shots, other bigs rotate to box out) than a lack of ability. Leadership? Could use some help here too.

Total defense - 28/30

Zhaire Smith (43/60 overall)

Perimeter offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 5/10

Limited to catch-and-shoot 3's, though he's made significant strides in that department over the last year. Good mechanics suggest there's at least an outside chance of him developing a more diverse perimeter game in the future.

Interior offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 8/10

Not a great ballhandler at the moment, but very dangerous when he gets a step on his man going to the basket, as his combination of strength, speed, and explosiveness makes it almost impossible for defenders to recover and contest. Puts stress on rotating bigs with his ability to elevate quickly in traffic for alley-oops.

Team offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Upside as a creator somewhat limited due to below-average ballhandling ability, but a very smart passer given the opportunity. Willing, strong screen setter; shows good intuition for how to disrupt defensive rotations, then pick the right moment to dive to the rim. Hustle plays on defense and on 50/50 balls lead to transition opportunities and easy looks for his teammates. Selfless, team-first attitude.

Total offense - 20/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 9/10

Ideal physical tools to defend all three perimeter positions, with the speed to stay with quick guards and the length/strength to battle big wings. Just-ok steal rate possibly due to his spending significant time playing PF defensively, but does reflect the fact that he doesn't have particularly quick hands on the perimeter.

Interior defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Not at all easy to shoot over or overpower, but ultimately limited by his size if tasked with guarding bigs at the NBA level. Can be a little too over-eager and bite on fakes.

Team defense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 7/10

A serious shot blocking threat; flies around on defense to bother shots and break up plays. Can legitimately switch 1-5; good enough length and athleticism to deny the entry pass to bigs. Tendency to try to do too much at times leaves shooters open, which more polished NBA offenses will try to take advantage of.

Total defense - 23/30

Wendell Carter (40/60 overall)

Perimeter offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 4/10

Decent mechanics and efficiency on a small volume of attempts from 3. Reasonably likely to develop an NBA-range set shot, but probably will a 1-dimensional scorer at best from behind the arc.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Very skilled for his age with NBA size and athleticism. Has quick feet in small spaces and likes to throw his weight around, allowing him to outmaneuver defenders and work his way into advantageous positions. Has some ballhandling ability, but much more comfortable operating in the low post than out on the perimeter.

Team offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 5/10

Really good basketball IQ for a young big. Surrounded by offensive talent at Duke, he showed a good team-first attitude, keeping his head up when he had the ball and making smart passes to keep the offense humming. Does the little things to help create driving lanes for guards. In the long run, seems like a guy who could thrive in a second-banana role alongside a ball-dominant perimeter star.

Total offense - 18/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 5/10

Largely untested on the perimeter thanks to Duke's zone defense. Reasonably nimble for a big, and good steal rate is a positive sign, but not a catlike athlete in space like Jackson.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 10/10

Rock solid 1-on-1 defender inside thanks to his strong, chiseled frame, high IQ, and good reflexes. Makes it hard for opposing bigs to get to their spots, positions himself well to deny strong moves to the basket. Good hands make him a threat to poke the ball away on entry passes and in the post.

Team defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 7/10

Somewhat hard to evaluate due to Duke's zone defense, but positive signs. Not overly long or athletic, but covers ground well to get a hand up and bother shots around the rim. Doesn't bite on fakes; knows it's better to give up a hand-in-the-face 10 footer than to let the guard drive past him and finish with a layup. Confident enough to show some leadership.

Total defense - 22/30

Jontay Porter (45/60 overall)

Perimeter offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 9/10

Remarkably quick and compact release. Small sample size, but good form seems to hold up when contested or off-balance. These attributes combined with his size could give him a lot of gravity as a floor spacer.

Interior offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 6/10

Like Jackson, perhaps better thought of as a giant wing than a big. Naturally fluid ballhandling ability suggests he may be able to take bigs off the dribble in the future in spite of an average first step. Seriously lacks explosiveness at the moment, though his body is a work in progress and he could reasonably be expected to improve a bit in this department.

Team offense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 8/10

Perhaps the best passing big man prospect since Jokic. Acted as the focal point of Missou's offense for stretches even before his 18th birthday, which would be notable for a point guard prospect let alone a big. Budding ability to read the defense on the move. Flashes of creativity, albeit to the point of turning the ball over on too-ambitious passes. Showed a lot of leadership on the court in spite of his age, communicating well and encouraging teammates.

Total offense - 23/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 8/10

Surprisingly quick feet laterally for a player who's otherwise an unremarkable athlete at best. Makes a serious effort to hound ballhandlers out beyond the 3-point line instead of simply protecting against the dribble drive.

Interior defense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 7/10

Plays with good energy, and quick feet keep him competitive, but lack of verticality hurts him significantly in this department. Probably will be able to hold his own in the post after he replaces baby fat with muscle, but will likely be forced to foul or give up easy baskets vs. elite bigs.

Team defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Covers a lot of ground thanks to good instincts and plus agility. Plays like a veteran, keeping his hands up and out to make himself a presence. Limited upside as a shotblocker, but good nose for the ball, and positions himself well to force a more difficult shot attempt. Good communication; serious signs of leadership on this end too.

Total defense - 22/30

Trae Young (38/60 overall)

Perimeter offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10/10

Quick release with unlimited range off the dribble. Takes a full-team effort to keep him bottled up.

Interior offense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 9/10

Great handle, hesitation moves, and threat of quick-trigger jumper keeps defenders off balance and creates opportunities to get in the paint and draw fouls. Again, generally takes a team effort to keep him in check as bigs have a hard time contesting without fouling.

Team offense - simple rating 8/10, advanced rating 9/10

Quite turnover prone at OU due to the outsize defensive attention he attracted, but easy to imagine him thriving as a facilitator on a team with other capable offensive players. Sees the floor well, and seems to genuinely recognize the importance of getting his teammates going. Textbook, accurate passer in general, with the ability and willingness to make more advanced passes when given breathing room.

Total offense - 28/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 4/10

Decent physical tools for a point guard with some competitiveness, but really looked like a fish out of water on the rare occasions he was forced to defend the ball one-on-one. Not entirely clear if this is due to a lack of experience, as OU routinely looked to hide him to save his energy, or just really poor instincts in this area.

Interior defense - simple rating 2/10, advanced rating 2/10

Decent physicality and can occasionally poke the ball away, but ultimately way too small and athletically limited to do anything of consequence.

Team defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 4/10

Made himself useful off the ball getting his hands in passing lanes for steals and generally showed decent IQ for a team defender, but effort level was often poor, and short arms limit his potential as a disruptor.

Total defense - 10/30
 
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