2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

It's about time for me to update my tier-based rankings, but I'm not sure there's much to change. The gaps between the top 3 tiers have gotten slightly smaller, and the gap between the third and fourth tiers has gotten slightly larger. I don't think any further players have earned a spot in that fourth tier (of course, go ahead and point out anyone I'm foolishly overlooking). Since we have a somewhat larger sample size now, I'm going to start arranging players within tiers from left to right (so Young #2 overall, Ayton #3, etc).

Tier 1: Doncic

Tier 2: Young/Ayton/Jackson

Tier 3: Porter/Bamba/Bagley

Tier 4: Carter/Mikal Bridges/Miles Bridges/Bonga/Sexton

One of these things is not like the other

 

[Nathan S]

One of these things is not like the other

If you're referring to Bonga, I realize he's not the sexy pick right now, but I think people will warm up to him closer to draft day. Athletic 6'9" point guards don't grow on trees. All kinds of potential. Youngest player in the draft, too (as far as I know).

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being discussed earlier today for the first time. I recently looked at him closer after his recent success for Kentucky. He may be the first guy for the Wildcats that I'm actually higher on than the consensus (for now). Though I'm not up to speed on Jarred Vanderbilt and haven't specifically watched PJ Washington super closely.

Hot take, but I may rather have Gilgeous-Alexander over Kevin Knox at this point.

As far as his defense, which was asked about earlier, I think the main swing-skill for him on that end is navigating screens. If he can do that, then I think he can become a plus PG defender. Either way he will at least be solid due to his off-ball awareness and overall length.

So much depends on his PG skills in the NBA, which IMO are just average. I'm fairly confident that a team will misuse his size advantage and simply play him alongside another PG in the majority of his minutes - negating the majority of his plus length (obviously 6'6 with 6'11 wingspan at the PG position defensively is far more advantageous than at a wing spot).

 

[Nathan S]

I saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being discussed earlier today for the first time. I recently looked at him closer after his recent success for Kentucky. He may be the first guy for the Wildcats that I'm actually higher on than the consensus (for now). Though I'm not up to speed on Jarred Vanderbilt and haven't specifically watched PJ Washington super closely.

Hot take, but I may rather have Gilgeous-Alexander over Kevin Knox at this point.

As far as his defense, which was asked about earlier, I think the main swing-skill for him on that end is navigating screens. If he can do that, then I think he can become a plus PG defender. Either way he will at least be solid due to his off-ball awareness and overall length.

So much depends on his PG skills in the NBA, which IMO are just average. I'm fairly confident that a team will misuse his size advantage and simply play him alongside another PG in the majority of his minutes - negating the majority of his plus length (obviously 6'6 with 6'11 wingspan at the PG position defensively is far more advantageous than at a wing spot).

I brought him up earlier; in fact I waited until the end of the Kentucky game to post my rankings because I was on the fence about whether or not to include him. He had a bit of a clunker (though he did earn big minutes thanks to Diallo's foul trouble) so I left him out for now. Not a ton of separation between him, Sexton, and Bonga in my mind.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I brought him up earlier; in fact I waited until the end of the Kentucky game to post my rankings because I was on the fence about whether or not to include him. He had a bit of a clunker (though he did earn big minutes thanks to Diallo's foul trouble) so I left him out for now. Not a ton of separation between him, Sexton, and Bonga in my mind.

I just don't really like Sexton tbh. Such a project. Knox is a huge project too.

Cats should somehow come with Jaren Jackson and Mikal Bridges... somehow. That's what I think for the time being.

 

[Nathan S]

I just don't really like Sexton tbh. Such a project. Knox is a huge project too.

Cats should somehow come with Jaren Jackson and Mikal Bridges... somehow. That's what I think for the time being.

We're just spoiled for big-scoring freshmen this year. Over the previous nine seasons, just two major-conference freshmen (Murray and Fultz) averaged better than 20ppg. This season we have four...Young, Bagley, Ayton, and Sexton. So Sexton is a guy who, most years, could claim to be the best pure scorer in the class.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I just don't really like Sexton tbh. Such a project. Knox is a huge project too.

Cats should somehow come with Jaren Jackson and Mikal Bridges... somehow. That's what I think for the time being.

I don't even know what Knox is good at besides being really young and having good tools.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I don't even know what Knox is good at besides being really young and having good tools.

Maybe running in with the ball in transition? but even then, he seems kinda goofy. He does have long poor man's Giannis strides.

Knox needs to go to a very favourable situation. He has the tools, he has a good character and he might turn out to be great, but just not on a Cavs uniform.No way.

 

[Nathan S]

I don't even know what Knox is good at besides being really young and having good tools.

Strengths: He's not bad

Weaknesses: He's not good

That about sums it up, right?

 

[Nathan S]

Doncic seems to get a turnover every game on a crazy pass that Tavares isn't expecting. Today it was a between-the-legs pass, the other day a no-look behind the back pass. He gets plenty of assists passing to Tavares too, but I think he'll be even better playing with a more skilled roll man.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I imagine some people watched OSU-Mich State today. Jaren Jackson had one of his worst games defensively so far this season in a difficult matchup against Keita Bates-Diop.

You could tell Jackson was visibly frustrated with both his play as well as the officiating. He's still super super jumpy against skilled bigs.

My main takeaway is that this game just further solidified my opinion that Jackson needs to put on some more weight, especially if he's going to play any 5 in the NBA. He got moved fairly easily by Bates-Diop on a number of possessions.

Another thing... Keita Bates-Diop is a hell of a player. I've not watched a ton of him this year, but after watching tonight I get the impression that he's a guy that does not get affected by shot contests whatsoever out of the mid-range. He's definitely taller than his listed 6'7" as well. I think he's got some legitimate small ball 4 scoring potential in the NBA. Safe pick that I could see going as high as in the 30's in this upcoming draft. Really hope OSU continues playing well and gets back into the tourney this year.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

ESPN updated their top 100 draft prospects.

Trae Young was moved up to 7th awhile ago.

Wendell Carter is down to 16th.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is up to 26th.

Jarrey Foster is at 28th now. I'm not sure he was even in their top 100 until now. He's a super athletic 3&D wing from SMU.

Justin Jackson from Maryland down to 33rd.

Nick Richards down to 44th.



Also does anyone have a subscription to The Athletic and have access to this mock draft by Sam Vecenie? https://theathletic.com/205405/2018/01/08/2018-nba-mock-draft-doncic-and-ayton-emerge-as-1a-and-1b/

 

[Nathan S]

Made a spreadsheet with Euroleague BPM, which gives a somewhat better picture than previously available "advanced" stats for Euro players:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18VogoiktOvIKejXldHdiDCd3xswK5Tp7Vde9Xw9yjkU/edit?usp=sharing

A couple of minor caveats:

-Instead of forcing minutes-weighted player BPM's to add up to team ratings, I forced minutes-weighted player BPM's to add up to zero league-wide (which saved me a lot of work). The effect is that my BPM slightly overrates players on teams that underachieve relative to the sum of their player ratings, and underrates players on teams that overachieve relative to the sum of their player ratings.

-I mean-regressed ratings to clear low-minutes players out of the top of the rankings. This effect is <1% for players with >70 minutes.

I used the BPM formula from this page, for reference: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Made a spreadsheet with Euroleague BPM, which gives a somewhat better picture than previously available "advanced" stats for Euro players:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18VogoiktOvIKejXldHdiDCd3xswK5Tp7Vde9Xw9yjkU/edit?usp=sharing

A couple of minor caveats:

-Instead of forcing minutes-weighted player BPM's to add up to team ratings, I forced minutes-weighted player BPM's to add up to zero league-wide (which saved me a lot of work). The effect is that my BPM slightly overrates players on teams that underachieve relative to the sum of their player ratings, and underrates players on teams that overachieve relative to the sum of their player ratings.

-I mean-regressed ratings to clear low-minutes players out of the top of the rankings. This effect is <1% for players with >70 minutes.

I used the BPM formula from this page, for reference: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

That's nice.

I think Jonah Bolden is going to be a very good for the Sixers in due time. Long, agile, has 3pt ability, athletic, runs the floor well, good passer.... modern NBA 4/5.

Doncic's REB% 13 seems low for him.

 

[Nathan S]

ESPN updated their top 100 draft prospects.

Trae Young was moved up to 7th awhile ago.

Wendell Carter is down to 16th.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is up to 26th.

Jarrey Foster is at 28th now. I'm not sure he was even in their top 100 until now. He's a super athletic 3&D wing from SMU.

Justin Jackson from Maryland down to 33rd.

Nick Richards down to 44th.



Also does anyone have a subscription to The Athletic and have access to this mock draft by Sam Vecenie? https://theathletic.com/205405/2018/01/08/2018-nba-mock-draft-doncic-and-ayton-emerge-as-1a-and-1b/

I think people have gone too cold on Carter. He gets overshadowed by Bagley on offense, but he's also a big part of Duke's success on that end. He's certainly a better all-around defender than Bagley (not high praise, I know).