2019 NBA Draft Lottery

[Triplethreat]

LOL Are you seriously trying to compare Trae Young to Cam Reddish?

Trae Young was 1000x the prospect that Cam Reddish is. Young led the nation in APG and PPG. He had a .585 TS% as the #1 option on his team. Reddish couldn't even crack .500 TS% as a THIRD OPTION behind Zion and Barrett. His most eye popping stat wasn't leading the nation in scoring or assists, but that he shot .356 on the most stacked team in the nation.

No offense my friend, but we like you much better here as a poster than as our GM.

Unfortunately he was playing so out of position and had to defer to two other guys every single game, so not entirely sure what you're talking about when it comes to assists, PPG. Reddish was the 3rd option like you said....

How do you even get a rhythm playing like that? Something like 50%+ of Reddish's shots were spot up catch and shoot 3 pointers.... not even slightly his game.

Reddish will be a bucket go getter in the NBA, and he simply has a MUCH higher ceiling than any other guy we can grab at 5 outside of Bol.

 

[inliner311]

While I'm still not totally sold on Sexton, wouldn't Garland basically mean it's an either/or kind of deal? I don't see how they fit together. That said, there is zero way I'd let Sexton's roster presence influence my pick beyond an "all things are equal" point.

I think the organization knew this could be a situation and that's why they asked Sexton to play off the ball especially when Brandon Knight or Delly were on the floor. I think they were planning for Morant being the best player on the board but the same thing holds true for Garland. If he is the best player available especially if it's by a wide margin, the team just have to draft him and figure it out over time.

It's hard to gauge what Garland is but he does have NBA pedigree. His dad was a NBA PG so he has most likely been taught right. He also has been playing USA basketball since he was 14.

 

[Triplethreat]

I'll also say this....

FT% is a very important statistic to look at when trying to figure out a players ceiling as a SHOOTER in the NBA. The higher the FT% in college, the better.

Reddish at 77% in his freshman year gives me great optimism he will develop into a 35-40% 3 point shooter at the next level. It shows that he has consistency and has solid form and touch. He will need coached up obviously otherwise. However that's a fucking excellent sign.

 

[CavsFTW]

Unfortunately he was playing so out of position and had to defer to two other guys every single game, so not entirely sure what you're talking about when it comes to assists, PPG. Reddish was the 3rd option like you said....

How do you even get a rhythm playing like that? Something like 50%+ of Reddish's shots were spot up catch and shoot 3 pointers.... not even slightly his game.

Reddish will be a bucket go getter in the NBA, and he simply has a MUCH higher ceiling than any other guy we can grab at 5 outside of Bol.

The point is that you brought Trae Young into this discussion as if he's similar to Reddish in some manner. My point is that they aren't. Young entered the draft as a highly accomplished college player; Reddish enters the draft as a highly accomplished high school player with sub-par numbers at Duke.

My question to you is, what do you think the NBA success rate is for players who shoot below 37% in college? I may be going out on a limb here, but I suspect it's not very high.

I like your Bol Bol suggestion though -- he's a very good prospect if he can stay healthy.

 

[Triplethreat]

The point is that you brought Trae Young into this discussion as if he's similar to Reddish in some manner. My point is that they aren't. Young entered the draft as a highly accomplished college player; Reddish enters the draft as a highly accomplished high school player with sub-par numbers at Duke.

My question to you is, what do you think the NBA success rate is for players who shoot below 37% in college? I may be going out on a limb here, but I suspect it's not very high.

I like your Bol Bol suggestion though -- he's a very good prospect if he can stay healthy.

Young shot 42% from the field in college.

Not exactly a testament to efficiency....

 

[CavsFTW]

Young shot 42% from the field in college.

Not exactly a testament to efficiency....

I'll just say that if you have a problem with Trae Young's .585 TS% as the leading scorer in the nation, then you probably don't want to look at Reddish's.

 

[Triplethreat]

I'll just say that if you have a problem with Trae Young's .585 TS% as the leading scorer in the nation, then you probably don't want to look at Reddish's.

TS% is garbage.

It rewards players HEAVILY for their usage rate because they’re going to the FT line more. For example... Trae Young.

It also PUNISHES players like Reddish who didn’t have a chance to go to line as much because of the two studs he had on the roster that were the main ball controlling players.

That stat belongs nowhere in this discussion and shouldn’t even be brought up when discussing Reddish.

 

[I'mWithDan]

IMO the Cavs have a clear choice at #5.
It's Darius Garland. To me, he's like Kyrie, except Garland is a willing and creative passer. Like Kyrie, his college career was very limited - just like Kyrie. Great handles, great shot, great moves. I can only imagine what a teacher like Beilein could do for him.
If he played a full season, he probably would be the second pick in the draft.

Here is a video made before his injury.
https://youtu.be/Q4F9eyCYjfQ

Limited games but Garland was a negative AST/TO player.

I think his playmaking skills are largely misrepresented. He's not a zero passer but he's also just not a good NBA creator either. He's a score first guard, very similar to Collin.....who is a marginally better / more willing passer.

I think Garland is simply just a poor man's Kyrie. He's plays similarly but lacks the elite gifts that Kyrie has.

 

[Cavatt]

I'll also say this....

FT% is a very important statistic to look at when trying to figure out a players ceiling as a SHOOTER in the NBA. The higher the FT% in college, the better.

Reddish at 77% in his freshman year gives me great optimism he will develop into a 35-40% 3 point shooter at the next level. It shows that he has consistency and has solid form and touch. He will need coached up obviously otherwise. However that's a fucking excellent sign.

He was also considered a point forward coming in. Had some good chemistry with Zion.

Some passing ability is all we need. I think with the playmakers we already have, a true pg is going to reduce the effectiveness of Cedi, Larry, Love, and Sexton. A decentralized playmaking system is a better system for a modern NBA team. There isn't a pure point left in the playoffs if you take notice. All teams that rely on playmaking from multiple positions.

Reddish can handle the ball like a guard and has terrific footwork. I am starting to understand why scouts still like him. He is good at so many things, if he could make incremental improvements in a couple of areas, you have a 6'8" guy who can do everything.

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

Unfortunately he was playing so out of position and had to defer to two other guys every single game, so not entirely sure what you're talking about when it comes to assists, PPG. Reddish was the 3rd option like you said....

How do you even get a rhythm playing like that? Something like 50%+ of Reddish's shots were spot up catch and shoot 3 pointers.... not even slightly his game.

Reddish will be a bucket go getter in the NBA, and he simply has a MUCH higher ceiling than any other guy we can grab at 5 outside of Bol.

Im on mobile and trying to add up the numbers so I apologize if the numbers are wrong... but i believe in the 6 straight games Zion missed, Cam Reddish shot 35.4% and averaged 1.7 assists per game as the team's 2nd option.

Color me unimpressed. If the kid can only function as a #1 option, why would you want him? If we ever want to be a title contender again, he'd have to share the ball with multiple other good players.

 

[CavsFTW]

TS% is garbage.

It rewards players HEAVILY for their usage rate because they’re going to the FT line more. For example... Trae Young.

It also PUNISHES players like Reddish who didn’t have a chance to go to line as much because of the two studs he had on the roster that were the main ball controlling players.

That stat belongs nowhere in this discussion and shouldn’t even be brought up when discussing Reddish.

One could argue that Reddish's sub .500 TS% is a better definition for the word "garbage". The same could be said about his highly inefficient .356 FG%, which was the second lowest FG% on the Duke roster.

It's hard to believe any lottery bound prospect could be that bad against defenses focused on stopping Zion and Barrett.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll also say this....

FT% is a very important statistic to look at when trying to figure out a players ceiling as a SHOOTER in the NBA. The higher the FT% in college, the better.

Reddish at 77% in his freshman year gives me great optimism he will develop into a 35-40% 3 point shooter at the next level. It shows that he has consistency and has solid form and touch. He will need coached up obviously otherwise. However that's a fucking excellent sign.

35-40% is a gigantic spread. At volume, it's the difference between an average NBA shooter and an elite NBA shooter.

I like Cam's shooting potential but referencing his FT%, which is really ordinary, is just not a compelling argument as to why he can develop as a shooter. If you look through historical data, it's really rare to find a high volume 3PT shooter at 40% or better who is even an average FT shooter.

In 18-19', the only qualifying top 20 shooter (40% or better, 300 min attempts) who's a sub 80% FT shooter was Joe Ingles, at 70.7%. All other players are 80% or better. 11/20 players are 85% or better.

 

[Triplethreat]

Im on mobile and trying to add up the numbers so I apologize if the numbers are wrong... but i believe in the 6 straight games Zion missed, Cam Reddish shot 35.4% and averaged 1.7 assists per game as the team's 2nd option.

Color me unimpressed. If the kid can only function as a #1 option, why would you want him? If we ever want to be a title contender again, he'd have to share the ball with multiple other good players.

The thing is, is that he's no where near a finished product.

But when you look at his TOOLS, things he has already shown on tape you will come away very impressed.

For example he showed a full repertoire of ball skills and finishing skills against Florida State. It was one of his best collegiate games and he nailed an ice cold game winning 3 as the clock expired as well.

As I mentioned earlier, with young players you really want to take a look at FT% to project towards future shooting success.

I don't think there is any question at all that Reddish has more tools to become a star player than anyone else we can draft at #5 other than Bol.

If you're okay with drafting an average player who's not going to be able to get his own shot at the next level (3&D) with the 5th overall pick then sure, take Culver or whatever. But at #5 you have got to be looking for playmaking and guys who can get you buckets when you need them and from what I've seen from Reddish he is going to develop into that guy with proper coaching and work ethic.

A guy he reminds me a lot of.......... Paul Pierce.

 

[BlessEm]

The point is that you brought Trae Young into this discussion as if he's similar to Reddish in some manner. My point is that they aren't. Young entered the draft as a highly accomplished college player; Reddish enters the draft as a highly accomplished high school player with sub-par numbers at Duke.

My question to you is, what do you think the NBA success rate is for players who shoot below 37% in college? I may be going out on a limb here, but I suspect it's not very high.

I like your Bol Bol suggestion though -- he's a very good prospect if he can stay healthy.

Sexton came out of college shooting below 33% from 3, demar Dorozan shot 17% in his one season from 3 in college. Paul George his last year in college shot 35%. Donovan Mitchell shot 25% from 3 his freshman year then 35% his sophomore year. Just a few examples of below 37% from 3. Dont always go hand and hand. Especially in one season. George shot 45% from 3 his freshman tear then dropped to 35% his sophomore year. Collin went from 33% in college to over 40% as a rookie in the nba.

Edit. My bad for some reason I thought you meant 3p%.

 

[Triplethreat]

35-40% is a gigantic spread. At volume, it's the difference between an average NBA shooter and an elite NBA shooter.

I like Cam's shooting potential but referencing his FT%, which is really ordinary, is just not a compelling argument as to why he can develop as a shooter. If you look through historical data, it's really rare to find a high volume 3PT shooter at 40% or better who is even an average FT shooter.

In 18-19', the only qualifying top 20 shooter (40% or better, 300 min attempts) who's a sub 80% FT shooter was Joe Ingles, at 70.7%. All other players are 80% or better. 11/20 players are 85% or better.

You don't need to be a 40% 3 point shooter to be an elite scorer. Which is what Reddish has the opportunity to blossom into.

Realistically you expect a 36-38% from your stud.

Paul George shot 67% FT's as a freshman. 80% as a sophomore. Shoots the 3 in the NBA around 38% now...

You would really expect a good amount of positive progression from Reddish going into next year in FT% as well as shooting % with how good his form already is.