2019 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

Looking more closely at Bassey, his assist:TO in particular really murders him. I know it's always dangerous to read too much into a single stat, but I wonder if any player with a college assist:TO ratio worse than 1:4 has ever amounted to anything. Even "unskilled" bigs typically manage 1:2 or so. Maybe there's a good explanation for that, but it's a serious red flag that shouldn't be swept under the rug.

Here's what I got, from the data I have:

Jarrett Allen: 1:3
John Collins: 1:3
Zach Collins 1:4

All these guys aren't terrible to have on that side of this stat.....if you want to be rosey about it. Zach Collins has been a reserve big on a playoff team, in year 2 and John Collins / Jarrett Allen are two of the best young emerging big men in the league.

Those were the only three that high.

Next up were:

Faried: 1:2.5
Myles Turner: 1:2.5

So it seems there's a handful of guys who are at least in the ballpark but again, I have no clue how Bassey produces his TO's.....if he's a miserable passer or live ball dribble TO guy, that's more of a red flag.....if he's just racking up offensive fouls half the time, maybe less of a concern.

EDIT: The data I am using is also mid-late February, so many of these players have likely pulled down.....I'd imagine Bassey and Fernando are both candidates to regress but we'll see.

I'd be inclined to agree on Jones vs. White, but we just recently got to see them go head-to-head, and Jones absolutely dominated that matchup (even accounting for the fact that he shot the ball like crap). I'm a little torn, because I do think White's a really good prospect, but it's hard to give him the edge after seeing them on the court at the same time. It wasn't even a fluky thing like White misfiring on shots he normally hits...Jones just didn't let him get to his spots at all.

I think it's less about 1 on 1 games and more about what profile does Jones fit? If you want to project him forward in the NBA? He is just so incredibly far behind all of the All-Star or Fringe All-Star level guards offensively.

Statistically, he most closely resembles Monte Morris, out of the available options the past few years....in terms of adjusted and scoring splits......reserve guard on one of the best 2-3 teams in the WC is a pretty nice prospect profile given his pick projection (20-30).

EDIT: Morris is obviously older than Jones but of guys who succeeded, they generally impacted games similarly. I'd imagine the likelihood Jones is better than Morris, given his age, is relatively high.....there just isn't an All-Star or Fringe All-Star PG who scores at such a pedestrian level.

 

[Nathan S]

Here's what I got, from the data I have:

Jarrett Allen: 1:3
John Collins: 1:3
Zach Collins 1:4

All these guys aren't terrible to have on that side of this stat.....if you want to be rosey about it. Zach Collins has been a reserve big on a playoff team, in year 2 and John Collins / Jarrett Allen are two of the best young emerging big men in the league.

Those were the only three that high.

Next up were:

Faried: 1:2.5
Myles Turner: 1:2.5

So it seems there's a handful of guys who are at least in the ballpark but again, I have no clue how Bassey produces his TO's.....if he's a miserable passer or live ball dribble TO guy, that's more of a red flag.....if he's just racking up offensive fouls half the time, maybe less of a concern.

EDIT: The data I am using is also mid-late February, so many of these players have likely pulled down.....I'd imagine Bassey and Fernando are both candidates to regress but we'll see.



I think it's less about 1 on 1 games and more about what profile does Jones fit? If you want to project him forward in the NBA? He is just so incredibly far behind all of the All-Star or Fringe All-Star level guards offensively.

Statistically, he most closely resembles Monte Morris, out of the available options the past few years....in terms of adjusted and scoring splits......reserve guard on one of the best 2-3 teams in the WC is a pretty nice prospect profile given his pick projection (20-30).

EDIT: Morris is obviously older than Jones but of guys who succeeded, they generally impacted games similarly. I'd imagine the likelihood Jones is better than Morris, given his age, is relatively high.....there just isn't an All-Star or Fringe All-Star PG who scores at such a pedestrian level.

I'd say Zach Collins is kinda terrible...10th pick and he's clinging to his rotation spot by the skin of his teeth at the moment. The other two are pretty good though.

As for Jones, he's not terribly far off where Jrue Holiday was as a scorer. I know that's grasping at straws a little, though. I actually think his best fit would be next to a guy like Coby White come to think of it, haha. Baffling that Reddish and Jones came out of HS with reputations as can't-miss well-rounded players, and then in college they suddenly have these extreme weaknesses that somehow went completely unnoticed at lower levels of competition.

 

[Smooth]

I'm still working my way through at least 4-5+ viewings of each prospects but so far couple guys I like (outside of top-4)--

Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Bruno Fernando

NAW seems like a prototypical two-guard for what the NBA is shifting towards.... The SG position is so weak right now, I don't see any reason why he can't be one of the better ones given he can pass, shoot, defend, can create some and plays relatively smart basketball... His length + defense + shooting ability will be his calling cards and make for an exciting two-way player...

Fernando really jumps off the page because of his size... He may not be the elite shot-blocker as some of the other bigs, but I enjoy the feel he plays with on the offensive size combined with his size... I know you guys mentioned his AST/TO ratio, but from the limited amount I can speak to that in two phases: 1). his feel for finding kick outs and perimeter shooters is very good... He's one of the more cerebral, unselfish bigs in this draft class and I don't think the stats accurately reflect it; I was surprised his PER-40 ast numbers were so low... 2). his TOs right now seem to be more loose handles then it does poor decision making, which is something that can be corrected... I'm not sure if I have a comparison for him yet but his energy, rebounding, offensive feel and size is attractive for a guy (I'm guessing?) ends up in the 15-25 range...

A couple of guys who I'm struggling to see their high ranking--

Nassir Little
Romeo Langford

I really think both of them need to return to school, develop their games and find what they do well... Right now, it's hard to say where they would contribute on a NBA team and my worry is that they'd get lost in the shuffle of the lack of NBA player development.... There's only a few situations where I'd say they have a shot (obviously Spurs are gold standard)..

Little has struggled some with injuries and come off the bench... My worry is he's going to be more Michael Kidd-Gilchrist combo forward who can defend some, rebound some but not really score unless he's in the key more so then he will truly an elite wing player... Perhaps that would come out more if he returned to school and got more of a stronghold in Roy's rotation but right now I'd be worried to spend a high draft pick..

Langford is in a similar boat but certainly showed a bit more than Little... I know he's been billed as an elite scorer coming out of high school... He's certainly been a scorer, but a rather inefficient one... Outside of being able to attack the paint, he doesn't look like a polished scorer or someone who can be relied upon consistently for a team... Indiana's needed a scorer all year long and in the games I've watched, he disappears for too long...

 

[EdMonix11]

Koby Altman taking in the Texas-Texas Tech game tonight

 

[I'mWithDan]

Would be interested in seeing how Haliburton, Blackshear, and Tillman rate, if it would be easy for you to check.

It tends to blindly like all 3.....but it likes Tillman a lot.

Blackshear is an average second rounder. He has a high foul rate though, especially for someone who isn't producing a lot of non scoring effect. That's typically a red flag for someone as is.....even more so if they are undersized or less of an athlete.

Haliburton is in the Tre Jones, Kendall Marshall zone......where they just have such unbalanced scoring / non scoring effects. Those 3 PG's are by far the lowest scoring rate out of the 200+ draft players I have data on (from 2011-2019). The only other player even close is Ashtan Hagans.......all 4 of those players lag 25-35% behind the 5th lowest scoring rate....they are all nearly 50% behind the average per 100 scoring rate (28.23). Halliburton is more than 60% off that pace. It seems like a big stretch any of those guys have much of a ceiling.....and Marshall already washed out. Halliburton also has the highest reliance on his non scoring metrics.....they account for 33% of his output. The next closest was Matisse at 25%. Jones is at 19%. Kendall Marshall was 23%.

Tillman is by far the most interesting one. He's another guy I don't know a ton about. The numbers above are rating him as an undersized, below average athlete too. That is just typically what I do if I haven't formed an opinion or there isn't a consensus on how he compares to NBA athletes. Assuming he is more than that, his numbers will get a bit better too. Is he a 4? a 3? 3/4? The only thing that stands out is he does foul a lot......so you wonder if his defensive stats translate as they normally would (if he is an undersized, non NBA athlete). I have him at the #3 foul rate in this class behind Hayes, Konate.

 

[Nathan S]

It tends to blindly like all 3.....but it likes Tillman a lot.

Blackshear is an above average to good second rounder.

Haliburton is in the Tre Jones, Kendall Marshall zone......where they just have such unbalanced scoring / non scoring effects. Those 3 PG's are by far the lowest scoring rate out of the 200+ draft players I have data on (from 2011-2019). The only other player even close is Ashtan Hagans.......all 4 of those players lag 25-35% behind the 5th lowest scoring rate....they are all nearly 50% behind the average per 100 scoring rate (28.23). Halliburton is more than 60% off that pace. It seems like a big stretch any of those guys have much of a ceiling.....and Marshall already washed out. Halliburton also has the highest reliance on his non scoring metrics.....they account for 33% of his output. The next closest was Matisse at 25%.

Tillman is by far the most interesting one. He's another guy I don't know a ton about. The numbers above are rating him as an undersized, below average athlete too. That is just typically what I do if I haven't formed an opinion or there isn't a consensus on how he compares to NBA athletes. Assuming he is more than that, his numbers will get a bit better too. Is he a 4? a 3? 3/4?

Haliburton is pretty different from Tre Jones because he actually makes his shots, haha. That makes it easier to believe that his low scoring volume is more due to team situation than to a lack of shot making ability. Assuming he stays in school, it'll be interesting to see how he develops next year.

Tillman I think is almost exclusively a small-ball center in the modern NBA, which at a listed 6'8" is a tough ask obviously. Not sure why you'd consider him a below-average athlete, though. Per-100 rebound-steal-block rates are all solid enough for a center prospect, which speaks to how he uses his athleticism to make up for a lack of height in the paint. More than capable of finishing strong at the rim. Seems like Nick Ward will be out for at least a few more games, so there'll be more opportunities to see what Tillman can do in a big-minutes starting role (EDIT: where he has to change he playing style a bit to stay out of foul trouble).

 

[I'mWithDan]

Haliburton is pretty different from Tre Jones because he actually makes his shots, haha. That makes it easier to believe that his low scoring volume is more due to team situation than to a lack of shot making ability. Assuming he stays in school, it'll be interesting to see how he develops next year.

Haha, fair enough. He's certainly an interesting test case of how a player does when he assumes an entirely different role the following year.

Tillman I think is almost exclusively a small-ball center in the modern NBA, which at a listed 6'8" is a tough ask obviously. Not sure why you'd consider him a below-average athlete, though. Per-100 rebound-steal-block rates are all solid enough for a center prospect, which speaks to how he uses his athleticism to make up for a lack of height in the paint. More than capable of finishing strong at the rim. Seems like Nick Ward will be out for at least a few more games, so there'll be more opportunities to see what Tillman can do in a big-minutes starting role.

My calculation considers age and general athleticism/size. It is meant to assess the likelihood that 1. a player can translate those more meaningful non scoring stats at the next level and 2. to see what players are candidates to potentially be undervalued or grow in meaningful ways....i.e. someone like THT.....who is incredibly young and has + measurables.....my calculation (and yours too), likes him a lot more than a typical mock draft person. Doesn't mean we are right but it does mean that our calculations generally come to similar conclusions with different data.....which, if we are doing this right, possibly intimates THT should be valued more than he is.

Those age/athleticism/size calculations will adjust when guys are measured.......for now, the athleticism part is more of a functional assessment (eye test) and size relies a lot on roster stats, which aren't always accurate. If Tillman is a 6'8" listed center......that is why I initially undervalue his athletic assessment a bit. It's possible he could be 6'5"-6'6" and MSU pads his roster bio......or he could be a legit 6'8" with long arms, that could completely change how you view his numbers. Similarly, THT is a 6'4" SG......roster bio doesn't get you overly excited, until you see his outlying length numbers....that tell you he might be functionally more of a 6'7-6'8" point forward type who can play possibly, 3 positions. I default to average until I have a better grasp on someone. I'm not saying Tillman is average size / athlete. I just blindly put that in before considering how his frame, length or bounce might overvalue or undervalue his production. Hopefully that makes sense.

A good example of how this can really change the perception of a player in season vs. year end......Donnovan Mitchell looked like a pretty average age, average size, + NBA athlete combo guy.....then he measured in with a 6'10+" wingspan, 8+' standing reach, with a 40" vert.....which completely changes the math on his defensive stats and potential. 4.8 BLK/STL per 100 with a near 6'10+" wingspan made him (functionally) a 6'6"-6'7" combo guard with + NBA athleticism. That is freakish. So post combine, Mitchell would have received a bump in his size / athleticism calculation that would have made him look more like an All-Star candidate.....when his previously listed height / size metrics would have thought that it was possible but more unlikely.

Draymond and Kawhi were two other guys who measured similarly. Just rather freakish length given their size. This isn't a system that just rewards athletes either, if it sounds that way. Several really great NBA athletes, just were not liked by my calculation (Zach Lavine, Jaylen Brown, Harrison Barnes, Jarrett Allen, etc.)....mix of NBA outcomes but Allen looks like a huge miss. Can't get them all right obviously......but it is more meant to be an adjustment that possibly moves a player up or down a tier....I don't know if you agree with that or if that explanation makes a lot of sense.....but I gave it a shot.

 

[Nathan S]

Haha, fair enough. He's certainly an interesting test case of how a player does when he assumes an entirely different role the following year.



My calculation considers age and general athleticism/size. It is meant to assess the likelihood that 1. a player can translate those more meaningful non scoring stats at the next level and 2. to see what players are candidates to potentially be undervalued or grow in meaningful ways....i.e. someone like THT.....who is incredibly young and has + measurables.....my calculation (and yours too), likes him a lot more than a typical mock draft person. Doesn't mean we are right but it does mean that our calculations generally come to similar conclusions with different data.....which, if we are doing this right, possibly intimates THT should be valued more than he is.

Those age/athleticism/size calculations will adjust when guys are measured.......for now, the athleticism part is more of a functional assessment (eye test) and size relies a lot on roster stats, which aren't always accurate. If Tillman is a 6'8" listed center......that is why I initially undervalue his athletic assessment a bit. It's possible he could be 6'5"-6'6" and MSU pads his roster bio......or he could be a legit 6'8" with long arms, that could completely change how you view his numbers. Similarly, THT is a 6'4" SG......roster bio doesn't get you overly excited, until you see his outlying length numbers....that tell you he might be functionally more of a 6'7-6'8" point forward type who can play possibly, 3 positions. I default to average until I have a better grasp on someone. I'm not saying Tillman is average size / athlete. I just blindly put that in before considering how his frame, length or bounce might overvalue or undervalue his production. Hopefully that makes sense.

A good example of how this can really change the perception of a player in season vs. year end......Donnovan Mitchell looked like a pretty average age, average size, + NBA athlete combo guy.....then he measured in with a 6'10+" wingspan, 8+' standing reach, with a 40" vert.....which completely changes the math on his defensive stats and potential. 4.8 BLK/STL per 100 with a near 6'10+" wingspan made him (functionally) a 6'6"-6'7" combo guard with + NBA athleticism. That is freakish. So post combine, Mitchell would have received a bump in his size / athleticism calculation that would have made him look more like an All-Star candidate.....when his previously listed height / size metrics would have thought that it was possible but more unlikely.

Draymond and Kawhi were two other guys who measured similarly. Just rather freakish length given their size. This isn't a system that just rewards athletes either, if it sounds that way. Several really great NBA athletes, just were not liked by my calculation (Zach Lavine, Jaylen Brown, Harrison Barnes, Jarrett Allen, etc.)....mix of NBA outcomes but Allen looks like a huge miss. Can't get them all right obviously......but it is more meant to be an adjustment that possibly moves a player up or down a tier....I don't know if you agree with that or if that explanation makes a lot of sense.....but I gave it a shot.

Agree that Tillman's length/athleticism measurements will be interesting to see if/when he participates in the combine. I mainly wanted to emphasize that his problem is that he's 6'8", not that he's a below-average athlete. If he was 2-3 inches taller with the same skills and athleticism he'd be a no-doubter lottery pick, IMO. He's strong, he's fluid, has a good motor, runs the floor, finishes strong...but at the end of the day it's hard to invest in a 6'8" center, and that's what he is.

 

[Ozone]

What are your thoughts on Okeke? excellent on the boards and can light it up. Seems like a decent option in the early 2nd if the Cavs get any picks for Smith.

 

[Nathan S]

What are your thoughts on Okeke? excellent on the boards and can light it up. Seems like a decent option in the early 2nd if the Cavs get any picks for Smith.

Don't think he has the mental makeup to ever be a star, but few guys have a more obvious fit at the next level IMO. Ultra-switchable defender, and while he's not overly skilled on offense, he can hit an open shot and he plays winning, team-first basketball. Would be a sweet grab in the second ground.

 

[Nathan S]

 

[Cavatt]

There is so much information in this thread, it can be hard to sift through. Who are your top 3 guys for the Rocket's pick? I have my guys for the top pick already I think.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

There is so much information in this thread, it can be hard to sift through. Who are your top 3 guys for the Rocket's pick? I have my guys for the top pick already I think.

Kevin Porter
Coby White
Grant Williams

Don't expect any of the above to be there though.

 

[Nathan S]

Kevin Porter
Coby White
Grant Williams

Don't expect any of the above to be there though.

That's what makes it such a tough question. It's really difficult to predict who all could fall to ~20 or so. The list is pretty long and has some big names on it.

 

[rcj47]

There is so much information in this thread, it can be hard to sift through. Who are your top 3 guys for the Rocket's pick? I have my guys for the top pick already I think.

Depending on where they fall and who comes out:

Coby White
Charles Bassey
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Grant Williams
Markus Howard - yes I know he is 5'11"

I feel like there is maybe one clear #1 player in the draft (Williamson), about 12 that have the numbers to justify a lottery level pick, and then there is a lot of good depth going into the second round of good players for that area. I wish the Cavs had a couple of second rounders for some of these guys.