2019 NBA Draft

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

The extent of ESPN’s draft analysis on Ja Morant is his pregame dunking ability.

 

[rcj47]

Here's maybe where we diverge a bit on Barrett and probably also prospects like THT. There is a lot of value in shot type.......for considering shooting and offensive projection.

And from what I see (in the data I care about), 3PT rate and volume tends to be a more reliable indicator of NBA success than just a number like 2P%, 3P% or even FG%. If you get all of the above, that player is pretty likely to succeed (Duh, captain obvious here).

But FG% on it's own doesn't necessarily give you a clear picture of a prospect. For example:

Player A - .607 FG%, 37.7 PTS/100
Player B - .459 FG%, 31.1 PTS/100

Which of the above players would it seem like you would want? They play the same position.

My draft calculation says you want player B, because of his mix of 3PT rate and volume. Player A is typically less likely to succeed because he scores, almost exclusively, on 2PFGA....that carry a lower PPA as less efficient attempts. Over time, that can really add up (especially if player A is incapable or unwilling to shoot like player B already does). It's also far easier to sustain / improve on player B's shooting numbers than it would be player A, another consideration.

You also have to remind yourself how small the sample size is, even more so for guys that shoot a lot of 3's. Someone like Barrett might shoot 3000-4000+ 3's in his NBA career. What his percentage is shooting 200 of them, at age 18, is less of a consideration. That's why percentages matter a bit less, especially in a single college season (for someone like Barrett). 3PA and rate have other effects not measured in a box score, like defender proximity, floor spacing, etc. that have been shown to tack on additional value as well. Just something worth considering.

On the first bolded point, I agree with you that for a lack of a better phrase scoring diversity is important and more so when it comes to guards/wings. I don't judge say centers the same because if their 2P% on good volume is >60% I don't care if they ever attempt a 3 point shot as the good efficiency will be there without it.

I use different numbers to come to a result on judging the players' variety of scoring types and I'll give you an example of someone on the Cavs currently where this was ignored. Nik Stauskus' college numbers showed a great 3 point shooter on good volume, great FT shooter, and good 2P% (50%). But if you look at his free throw attempts and 3PA this combined amounts to almost 80% of his scoring chances per game. That is way too high especially for someone only putting up 11 shots per game (+ FTAs). *NOTE: I use the FTAs as shot attempts even though they are not considered that in base stats you normally see.

His numbers paint a clear picture of a guy that was mainly a good distance shooter. I don't know about his defensive history but his numbers look like a 3 and D guard with/without the defense, sort of like Kyle Korver.

He definitely wasn't worth a lottery pick imo but SAC picked him 8th overall in 2014. Now I do think he has a role to play in the NBA but distance shooters like this need shots and he has been misused for the most part since he's been in the NBA. I think the most shots per game he's gotten in any one year is 7.

On Barrett - yes his scoring chance variety is really good, more like 50% of his chances come on FTAs and 3PAs on much better volume. He gets a perfect score in that one area from me. But do we really care if he is still an inefficient scorer? This latter is a result of poor shooting, both from long distance and the free throw line. This is where I will disagree and say this is too important to ignore and sort of missing the forest for the trees if the efficiency issue is ignored. And this is just me but I don't care how great of an athlete he is; I don't spend a high lottery pick on guys that haven't shown the skill part at a high level. I think both Barrett and Reddish should spend another year in school and work on their flaws.

Now I know Barrett is a safe pick for GMs because consensus and hype about him this year means most people will agree with the pick. I just think he's risky. What if he is like countless other college players that had low shooting numbers from distance and/or free throws and it doesn't improve much in the NBA? You have a more athletic Jordan Clarkson. At best you have DeMar DeRozan. Scary thought is that he plays just like Clarkson wanting all the shots, running into the lane against 3 defenders and so on. If whoever drafts him doesn't have a strong coaching staff that nips this decision making problem in the bud right away he isn't going to change anything.

One of the things that stands out to me on Barrett that I do really like is his rebounding. Averaging seven rebounds per game is really good for a guy his height/position.

As far as some of the other things you mentioned like floor spacing, defender proximity and all; I understand but also believe a full college season worth of stats, especially for someone that is on a team with a good strength of schedule, already reflects these issues.

 

[rcj47]

The extent of ESPN’s draft analysis on Ja Morant is his pregame dunking ability.

Yeah I had to mute the game and ended up not seeing the second half anyways. It's all just a hype fest. I found it interesting more so because I watched the first game too between Belmont and Austin Peay (I'm interested in Dyland Windler).

The announcers in that one were going on and on how great Windler is, how he has definite NBA level talent. Towards the end the game one announcer asked the other what are we looking at as far as a the NBA draft and the other one said he might get into the lower part of the second round. It was hilarious after all that build up. Or, maybe they think low 2nd rounders is a great thing, I really don't know.

 

[I'mWithDan]

The extent of ESPN’s draft analysis on Ja Morant is his pregame dunking ability.

Was that one of the DX guys? I loved their site but they’re not great on TV. Still have really quality column content, they just seem like awkward on air talent.

 

[Nathan S]

Okeke really standing out defensively against Tennessee. One of the very rare players at the college level who has the length, strength, and quickness to bother Grant Williams. Very easy to see him being a top defensive wing at the NBA level. And his shooting percentages are creeping higher and higher.

 

[Smooth]

The one thing you can appreciate about Okeke is his ability to fill up the stat sheet--he had 5 rebs, 1 ast, 3 stls, 1 blk and also made 3 3pm.. I'm still trying to figure Okeke out but that stat line is pretty consistent throughout this year and is shared by some pretty good players historically...

Grant Williams is a really good college player but I struggle to see a really good NBA player; I keep coming back to a Ryan Gomes type at the next level... His feel and skill is at a high level and what enables him to get by but I wonder if that will translate, especially with his shooting, while improved, being so-so... Rebounding tends to transfer and he's the type of guy you root for but I'm also not sure what position he defends since I don't think he's big/strong enough at the 4 and not quick enough on the wing...

It may be a hot take, but Jordan Bone may have the shot at being the best NBA prospect on the Tennessee team... Just appreciate his speed and the way he plays the game... He's always an impactful, noticeable player during Tenneesee's games and really fits that style perfectly...

 

[Nathan S]

The one thing you can appreciate about Okeke is his ability to fill up the stat sheet--he had 5 rebs, 1 ast, 3 stls, 1 blk and also made 3 3pm.. I'm still trying to figure Okeke out but that stat line is pretty consistent throughout this year and is shared by some pretty good players historically...

Grant Williams is a really good college player but I struggle to see a really good NBA player; I keep coming back to a Ryan Gomes type at the next level... His feel and skill is at a high level and what enables him to get by but I wonder if that will translate, especially with his shooting, while improved, being so-so... Rebounding tends to transfer and he's the type of guy you root for but I'm also not sure what position he defends since I don't think he's big/strong enough at the 4 and not quick enough on the wing...

It may be a hot take, but Jordan Bone may have the shot at being the best NBA prospect on the Tennessee team... Just appreciate his speed and the way he plays the game... He's always an impactful, noticeable player during Tenneesee's games and really fits that style perfectly...

Bounces didn't go Tennessee's way tonight, but as I pointed out the other day I love Williams' tendency to take over down the stretch. No doubt one of the most prolific clutch scorers in the NCAA, and he ratchets it up to another level as a rebounder and as a defender too. Makes it easier to believe in him than in most of the other guys in the lottery conversation if you're looking for elite upside.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Was that one of the DX guys? I loved their site but they’re not great on TV. Still have really quality column content, they just seem like awkward on air talent.

They've all just been hyping up Morant unbelievably there at ESPN. He gets 10x the coverage that RJ gets. It's not that he doesn't deserve attention, it's just weird that they focus on his pre-game dunking over just about anything else. They're just trying too hard with it, it's obvious they're pushing him. And these sorts of things do have an actual effect on the draft IMO. If the Cavs don't get the top pick, I'm hoping the Suns do again, just for the possible comedy that they take Morant over Zion with that pick.

I almost feel like ESPN is dictating what the DX guys present to some extent. It still just blows my mind that they put Ayton over Luka last year. I just don't believe that they truly thought he was the top player in the class lol. DX was much better when they were on their own, that's for sure.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Okeke really standing out defensively against Tennessee. One of the very rare players at the college level who has the length, strength, and quickness to bother Grant Williams. Very easy to see him being a top defensive wing at the NBA level. And his shooting percentages are creeping higher and higher.

He’s been unbelievably good in conference play. His leaderboard resume is pretty laughable. He’s top 10 or better in all the SEC categories below:

2 PT FG%
Offensive Rebounds (#1)
Total Rebounds
Steals
PER
ORTG
DRTG
DWS
WS
OBPM
DBPM
BPM
STL%
DREB%

He’s also just barely outside the top 10 (11th) in OWS, TO%, REB per game, REB%, Block%, TS%.

I’d imagine he’s going to go a lot higher than mocks have him right now.

 

[Nathan S]

He’s been unbelievably good in conference play. His leaderboard resume is pretty laughable. He’s top 10 or better in all the SEC categories below:

2 PT FG%
Offensive Rebounds (#1)
Total Rebounds
Steals
PER
ORTG
DRTG
DWS
WS
OBPM
DBPM
BPM
STL%
DREB%

He’s also just barely outside the top 10 (11th) in OWS, TO%, REB per game, REB%, Block%, TS%.

I’d imagine he’s going to go a lot higher than mocks have him right now.

Yeah, he's a pretty fun prospect to debate. Argument against him, which I've pointed out before, is that he doesn't show any desire to be "the guy" even at the college level. He doesn't exactly fade in clutch time, but he looks happy to just be a roleplayer and let others have the ball and take the shots. Aminu a good comp? What's his ceiling?

 

[Nathan S]

Reddish is a turnover machine whenever he puts the ball on the floor inside the 3-point line. One of the worst I've ever seen.

 

[catfish]

Reddish looks like a pro

 

[Cavs12]

Reddish looks like a pro

Just texted that to my buddy. Hadn’t been impressed with him, but tonight wow!

 

[catfish]

Little looks like a pro

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I’m going to be very upset when someone takes Coby White ahead of our 2nd pick.