2019 NBA Draft

[catfish]

He's going in the teens

 

[I'mWithDan]

Cam Reddish reminds me of a semi pro basketball player in Europe, who would be cast to play Kevin Durant in a lifetime movie about his basketball career.

Take a roughly Durant-ish sized wing.....make everything 40% worse but then tell the player he needs to try to play exactly like KD. That is how I feel watching Reddish, especially dribbling.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Yeah, he's a pretty fun prospect to debate. Argument against him, which I've pointed out before, is that he doesn't show any desire to be "the guy" even at the college level. He doesn't exactly fade in clutch time, but he looks happy to just be a roleplayer and let others have the ball and take the shots. Aminu a good comp? What's his ceiling?

Rich man’s James Johnson? His comp is actually a more difficult one. There are so few guys who show the ability to guard both NBA 3’s and 4’s.

The ceiling thing is tougher for me. Out of the 6 players on Auburn, who have 500 minutes played, he has just the 4th highest USG. He just doesn’t get a ton of offensive leash.

I think he’s flashed enough dribbling creativity to think he can be more than plus James Johnson but even if he is just that, it’s a pretty good player at 20. A really switchy, versatile defender that can lock down late in game, in ISO situations.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Rich man’s James Johnson? His comp is actually a more difficult one. There are so few guys who show the ability to guard both NBA 3’s and 4’s.

The ceiling thing is tougher for me. Out of the 6 players on Auburn, who have 500 minutes played, he has just the 4th highest USG. He just doesn’t get a ton of offensive leash.

I think he’s flashed enough dribbling creativity to think he can be more than plus James Johnson but even if he is just that, it’s a pretty good player at 20. A really switchy, versatile defender that can lock down late in game, in ISO situations.

Can he pass much at all? The AST numbers aren’t too bad given his role. I’ve only watched a couple of Auburn games and they weren’t recent, but I recall he pretty much just spots up is all. That’s one of my favorite traits about James Johnson’s game.

 

[Nathan S]

Rich man’s James Johnson? His comp is actually a more difficult one. There are so few guys who show the ability to guard both NBA 3’s and 4’s.

The ceiling thing is tougher for me. Out of the 6 players on Auburn, who have 500 minutes played, he has just the 4th highest USG. He just doesn’t get a ton of offensive leash.

I think he’s flashed enough dribbling creativity to think he can be more than plus James Johnson but even if he is just that, it’s a pretty good player at 20. A really switchy, versatile defender that can lock down late in game, in ISO situations.

Can he pass much at all? The AST numbers aren’t too bad given his role. I’ve only watched a couple of Auburn games and they weren’t recent, but I recall he pretty much just spots up is all. That’s one of my favorite traits about James Johnson’s game.

He's a decent enough passer, but I don't buy that he has the ballhandling upside to create offense at the NBA level. Few players his size do, of course. I guess he's kinda like a version of Reddish who knows how to play to his strengths?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can he pass much at all? The AST numbers aren’t too bad given his role. I’ve only watched a couple of Auburn games and they weren’t recent, but I recall he pretty much just spots up is all. That’s one of my favorite traits about James Johnson’s game.

He’s a bit over a 1.1:1 AST / TO guy, which at face value isn’t super exciting but he is a .67 AST/USG player....which indicates he possibly has some untapped playmaking potential. Barrett is .72 for context.

 

[Nathan S]

In mid-major news, Pickett led Siena to a win in the MAAC quarterfinals with 20 points on 6/9 shooting, 6 assists, 2 steals, 4 blocks, and 0 turnovers. Woof. Chances he declares this year are still fairly slim, but they get a little bit bigger with games like that, and he'll be very much on the radar for the Rockets' pick if he does.

 

[Ohio]

Cam Reddish reminds me of a semi pro basketball player in Europe, who would be cast to play Kevin Durant in a lifetime movie about his basketball career.

Take a roughly Durant l-ish sized wing.....make everything 40% worse but then tell the player he needs to try to play exactly like KD. That is how I feel watching Reddish, especially dribbling.

Dude's a bum. He should stay at Duke as long as they'll allow him to

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Jalen Pickett in action on ESPNU. He's started to gain some traction as a serious prospect especially thanks to his 46/13 game a couple weeks ago, but my model has had him the top-rated prospect in the country pretty much all year (though that should be taken in context with his very weak strength of schedule). Old school pass-first point guard with a big, solid 6'4" frame that should continue to develop as he matures. He's taken a last-place Siena team and carried them to within touching distance of a conference championship.

I like him a little. Not a Old-School pass-first point guard though. More Brad Beal but a step slower without the nose for the ball and versatility that helped Beal play 4 positions in Gainesville.

His game would mature and I could see him learning to play angles and develop a shiftiness with the ball to offset his average speed like Andre Miller with another year in college. If a Rod Strickland or Earl Watson came on staff at Siena and tied themselves to his hip, he'd be a much better pro prospect this time next year.

Love his size and love how he has reworked his jumper to raise his release point and stop shooting from his hip.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll try to get all my regular season numbers updated this week but the first round refreshed over the weekend, including the last slate of conference games.

Biggest 1st round risers, since mid February (based on HoopsHype's aggregate mock):

Jarrett Culver
Coby White
Ty Jerome
Daniel Gafford
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Biggest Sliders:

Keldon Johnson
Bruno Fernando
PJ Washington
Jalen McDaniels
Ashton Hagans

Culver, at least in my ratings, seems to have put a stranglehold on #4, with his season finish. I think he has a little lower ceiling but his metrics peg him as a really safe selection in a sea of land mines.

Coby White increased his season average game score by 15% over his final stretch. He was really hot offensively.

But the hottest player in the country? That goes to Ty Jerome down the stretch (+3.0122 NET PTS per game) . My rankings absolutely love him (9th overall) and he made a huge push to end the year. I don't think he'll go in the lottery but he has been incredibly good. I'm curious to see how he tests athletically. I currently have him downgraded pretty good because it's a bit tougher to eye test below the rim players......if he shows a little bounce and quickness at the combine, he seems like the potential wing steal of the middle of this draft.

 

[Nathan S]

I like him a little. Not a Old-School pass-first point guard though. More Brad Beal but a step slower without the nose for the ball and versatility that helped Beal play 4 positions in Gainesville.

His game would mature and I could see him learning to play angles and develop a shiftiness with the ball to offset his average speed like Andre Miller with another year in college. If a Rod Strickland or Earl Watson came on staff at Siena and tied themselves to his hip, he'd be a much better pro prospect this time next year.

Love his size and love how he has reworked his jumper to raise his release point and stop shooting from his hip.

You've probably seen a lot more of him than me...you're definitely right to say that he's a natural SG/SF type who happens to be a really good PG in a pinch, not a natural PG who can occasionally get a bucket or two. It's hard to separate the player from the system at a glance (for those who don't know, Siena plays extremely slow, methodical basketball). It would be interesting to see him play for a coach who gives him more freedom to take risks and be creative with the ball.

 

[Nathan S]

I'll try to get all my regular season numbers updated this week but the first round refreshed over the weekend, including the last slate of conference games.

Biggest 1st round risers, since mid February (based on HoopsHype's aggregate mock):

Jarrett Culver
Coby White
Ty Jerome
Daniel Gafford
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Biggest Sliders:

Keldon Johnson
Bruno Fernando
PJ Washington
Jalen McDaniels
Ashton Hagans

Culver, at least in my ratings, seems to have put a stranglehold on #4, with his season finish. I think he has a little lower ceiling but his metrics peg him as a really safe selection in a sea of land mines.

Coby White increased his season average game score by 15% over his final stretch. He was really hot offensively.

But the hottest player in the country? That goes to Ty Jerome down the stretch (+3.0122 NET PTS per game) . My rankings absolutely love him (9th overall) and he made a huge push to end the year. I don't think he'll go in the lottery but he has been incredibly good. I'm curious to see how he tests athletically. I currently have him downgraded pretty good because it's a bit tougher to eye test below the rim players......if he shows a little bounce and quickness at the combine, he seems like the potential wing steal of the middle of this draft.

Jerome's interesting for sure. He'll get written off because he's so unremarkable driving to the basket, but he's such a good shooter and passer that he should be a positive-impact player even operating exclusively from the perimeter.

I'm starting to warm up to Culver again, but I'm not sure there's anything he can do between now and draft day to make me fully trust his jumpshot. 34% from deep and 70% from the line is really borderline...not bad, but a couple months ago that was supposed to be the foundation for his whole offensive game. I can easily see him having a rookie year like Josh Okogie's having this year, where he earns big playing time with his defensive intensity but really struggles with efficiency on offense.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Jerome's interesting for sure. He'll get written off because he's so unremarkable driving to the basket, but he's such a good shooter and passer that he should be a positive-impact player even operating exclusively from the perimeter.

Yeah, it's tough to to get really excited about him because it seems like his interior finishing is limited and he's not really a great "eye test" player....but he's just been insanely productive, in a tough conference, on a good team. Maybe his ceiling is only awesome backup combo guard but it seems like he's someone who could out perform his draft slot.

I'm starting to warm up to Culver again, but I'm not sure there's anything he can do between now and draft day to make me fully trust his jumpshot. 34% from deep and 70% from the line is really borderline...not bad, but a couple months ago that was supposed to be the foundation for his whole offensive game. I can easily see him having a rookie year like Josh Okogie's having this year, where he earns big playing time with his defensive intensity but really struggles with efficiency on offense.

He's not super sexy in the top 5.....but he does just seem like someone who will stick and be a starter in the NBA. Given the other range of wing options that could completely flame out (Reddish, Langford, Little, Johnson, etc.).....Culver is a pretty good lock to go 4/5.......with one of Hunter, Hayes, Bol Bol, NAW as the 5th player in that group (in my opinion).

I'm curious to see your regular season ranks.....my top 10 especially seems to be a collection of no brainer players. The last month+ of the season provided a lot more clarity in my ranks.....and it still says that Grant Williams is so ungodly underrated that I'm not sure what to do.

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah, it's tough to to get really excited about him because it seems like his interior finishing is limited and he's not really a great "eye test" player....but he's just been insanely productive, in a tough conference, on a good team. Maybe his ceiling is only awesome backup combo guard but it seems like he's someone who could out perform his draft slot.



He's not super sexy in the top 5.....but he does just seem like someone who will stick and be a starter in the NBA. Given the other range of wing options that could completely flame out (Reddish, Langford, Little, Johnson, etc.).....Culver is a pretty good lock to go 4/5.......with one of Hunter, Hayes, Bol Bol, NAW as the 5th player in that group (in my opinion).

I'm curious to see your regular season ranks.....my top 10 especially seems to be a collection of no brainer players. The last month+ of the season provided a lot more clarity in my ranks.....and it still says that Grant Williams is so ungodly underrated that I'm not sure what to do.

I think I have 7 guys who are pretty solidly in my top-10 at this point...by tier,

1: Zion (duh)
2: Morant, Barrett
3: Williams, THT, Bitadze, Jontay Porter

After that things get really tough. All the guys you mention could make a case to join that 3rd tier, as could many others. I'm going to take my sweet time to decide

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think I have 7 guys who are pretty solidly in my top-10 at this point...by tier,

1: Zion (duh)
2: Morant, Barrett
3: Williams, THT, Bitadze, Jontay Porter

After that things get really tough. All the guys you mention could make a case to join that 3rd tier, as could many others. I'm going to take my sweet time to decide

Looking at both his data and film.....if you were a GM, could you take Reddish in the lottery? Today? And if so, where would you feel comfortable?

I just look at the landscape of players, production and potential and am I crazy to think no mock draft should have him in the top 10? And it’s a semi stretch to keep him in the lottery?

In the context of all drafts since 2011, it is horrifically bad on all levels. I have 393 prospects charted.....I’m still missing around half of the also ran second rounders from 2016-18 but every possession data 1st and 2nd rounder from 2011-2016....All 1st rounders from 2017-2018.....these are his actual, honest to god ranks.....

Per 100 possessions:

Game score: 387/393
NET game score: 371/393
Positional difference: 359/393

I get he has interesting physical gifts but how do people who fill out mock drafts ignore the above? He is historically bad statistically on a per 100 possession basis.

There are some high picks in those ballpark areas above and none have broken through to be much at the NBA level......

Lottery picks in that lower tier of game score ranks:

Austin Rivers, Jaylen Brown, Marquesse Chriss, Zach LaVine, Brandon Knight, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Knox, Nik Stauskas.....and shield your eyes, Collin Sexton.

It’s just a huge red flag, based on the drafts available with college possession data. It’s only 10 ish players but it’s 10 players from only 112 possible lottery selections (9%) and the best case is pretty ugly out of that group. Reddish has more unique circumstances, so maybe he bucks that trend but on a possession data basis, my calculation honestly rates him near an UDFA. He won’t be that but it speaks to how unwilling some people are to change their mind about someone, even in the face of a player completely flaming out as a freshman and then going pro.