2019 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

Kevin Porter
Coby White
Grant Williams

Don't expect any of the above to be there though.

My opinion would be:

Kevin Porter - 85/15
Coby White - 50/50
Grant Williams - No chance

Porter has been a general disaster and his advanced stats are miserable. He also has off court issues. Maybe he gets drafted on raw talent alone but I would imagine he's a late 1st pick, if I were guessing today (assuming his off court issues are real).

Maybe Porter kills drills and testing and gets drafted on projection but looking at his per 100 stats......1:1 AST/TO, Fouls a lot, below average scoring rate, bad FT shooter (small sample). His 3PT potential is nice but look at NBA wings....pretty much no good NBA wings are bad AST/TO guys.

The guys who are roughly 1:1 AST/TO guys, who I saw at first glance:

Josh Jackson
Brandon Ingram
Jabari Parker
Andrew Wiggins
Jaylen Brown

There's actually just so few of them if you run through SG's/SF's, who aren't positive assist producers. So if he's more of a score first wing.....which most guys are in that profile, you can't have as miserable of a /100 scoring rate as he does. I just don't know what translates to the NBA level, beyond his 3PT shooting.

He's possibly worth a flier on at 20 but I'd honestly much rather have any of the guys below, also projected in that range:

Matisse Thybulle
PJ Washington
Charles Bassey
Ty Jerome
Bruno Fernando

Lower ceiling players but guys I am far more confident in becoming average to good NBA starters.....or transitioning in to long term, young, role players as we add more talent.

At this pace, Little might even be a slider and someone the Cavs could consider trading up for.

So basically, my position is anyone other than Porter. ....at least today.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I’d like to hear more of your guys’ thoughts on Bassey since you both are high on him. I haven’t watched him since non-conference play (their non-conf schedule was pretty loaded). I think he’s solid, but am overall indifferent on him. Not the biggest guy for a C, and a very limited athlete from what I watched. Like was mentioned, he’s a pretty safe pick though. Have been real surprised with ESPN mocking him late second now.

With the age and midrange game I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stretch it out some in time to 3PT range, but am unsure on how much of an impact he will ever make on defense. If I remember right he wasn’t the quickest guy on the perimeter when he was rarely guarding out there

 

[I'mWithDan]

I’d like to hear more of your guys’ thoughts on Bassey since you both are high on him. I haven’t watched him since non-conference play (their non-conf schedule was pretty loaded). I think he’s solid, but am overall indifferent on him. Not the biggest guy for a C, and a very limited athlete from what I watched. Like was mentioned, he’s a pretty safe pick though. Have been real surprised with ESPN mocking him late second now.

With the age and midrange game I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stretch it out some in time to 3PT range, but am unsure on how much of an impact he will ever make on defense. If I remember right he wasn’t the quickest guy on the perimeter when he was rarely guarding out there

I more like Bassey's profile than someone like Porter......that is all I was trying to communicate.

Bassey rebounds at a high rate, he blocks shots without fouling, he has started taking 3's, is a good FT shooter for a big and has solid shooting form......I think he has a lot of stretch potential, when paired with his shot blocking, is actually a pretty rare combination. He's charted at 54% from long mid range on a small amount of attempts but coupled with his mechanics, FT% and willingness to shoot a few 3's already, I think he's worth betting on as a stretch 5.

I have 71 players charted with possession data (for the 60 draft slots in 2019). Bassey is #7 in BLK/100 and out of the top 10 guys, he has the 3rd lowest foul rate, behind Bol Bol and Brandon Clarke.

I have 220 past players charted, from 2011-2018, including every lottery pick (100+) and nearly every 1st round pick (I'll eventually get there before the draft )......out of those 220 historical picks, Bassey's block rate would be 19th. He has the 6th best BLK/PF ratio out of that top 20 group at .898. The only players in that top 20 to exhibit any stretch ability were KAT and Davis.....most others were Steven Adams or TT types.....more physical, bruising big men who played around the rim exclusively.

I haven't watched a ton of film on him and I rely more on what he does statistically, paired with how people have athletically assessed him. Where do you get the sense he is not athletic? Everything I have read says the opposite......maybe he can't guard like TT in space but skill wise, what players are able to both block shots and rebound at a near elite level, without being a good athlete? Those skills, in tandem, almost always come from players who are (at least) NBA athletes and generally high motor players.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I more like Bassey's profile than someone like Porter......that is all I was trying to communicate.

Bassey rebounds at a high rate, he blocks shots without fouling, he has started taking 3's, is a good FT shooter for a big and has solid shooting form......I think he has a lot of stretch potential, when paired with his shot blocking, is actually a pretty rare combination. He's charted at 54% from long mid range on a small amount of attempts but coupled with his mechanics, FT% and willingness to shoot a few 3's already, I think he's worth betting on as a stretch 5.

I have 71 players charted with possession data (for the 60 draft slots in 2019). Bassey is #7 in BLK/100 and out of the top 10 guys, he has the 3rd lowest foul rate, behind Bol Bol and Brandon Clarke.

I have 220 past players charted, from 2011-2018, including every lottery pick (100+) and nearly every 1st round pick (I'll eventually get there before the draft )......out of those 220 historical picks, Bassey's block rate would be 19th. He has the 6th best BLK/PF ratio out of that top 20 group at .898. The only players in that top 20 to exhibit any stretch ability were KAT and Davis.....most others were Steven Adams or TT types.....more physical, bruising big men who played around the rim exclusively.

I haven't watched a ton of film on him and I rely more on what he does statistically, paired with how people have athletically assessed him. Where do you get the sense he is not athletic? Everything I have read says the opposite......maybe he can't guard like TT in space but skill wise, what players are able to both block shots and rebound at a near elite level, without being a good athlete? Those skills, in tandem, almost always come from players who are (at least) NBA athletes and generally high motor players.

He’s definitely not athletic vertically. Just doesn’t get off the floor quickly and needs load up time. I remember hearing #s a while back on his extremely low dunk rate in comparison to other C prospects.

 

[rcj47]

I’d like to hear more of your guys’ thoughts on Bassey since you both are high on him. I haven’t watched him since non-conference play (their non-conf schedule was pretty loaded). I think he’s solid, but am overall indifferent on him. Not the biggest guy for a C, and a very limited athlete from what I watched. Like was mentioned, he’s a pretty safe pick though. Have been real surprised with ESPN mocking him late second now.

With the age and midrange game I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stretch it out some in time to 3PT range, but am unsure on how much of an impact he will ever make on defense. If I remember right he wasn’t the quickest guy on the perimeter when he was rarely guarding out there

I value scoring efficiency in NBA prospects more than anything so that is part of it for me with Bassey. I also would almost never draft any player in the 1st round with FT shooting issues unless they were freaky good in other areas. NOTE: I don't want Barrett in part because of his numbers both FT and 3P%. Bassey has good numbers for FTs at 77% and his 2P% is 64% which is very good.

With a big, after scoring efficiency, I look at their rebounding numbers and Bassey looks great there.

Now I could argue against him too somewhat in that he plays against lesser competition than someone that plays at Duke for example but certain numbers are good no matter where you play - things like FT shooting being one of them. Also, he did not grow up in the states with a basketball in his hand from a young age. I do believe he could be even more raw than your usual one and done but he also has possibly higher upside for the same reason.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I value scoring efficiency in NBA prospects more than anything so that is part of it for me with Bassey. I also would almost never draft any player in the 1st round with FT shooting issues unless they were freaky good in other areas. NOTE: I don't want Barrett in part because of his numbers both FT and 3P%. Bassey has good numbers for FTs at 77% and his 2P% is 64% which is very good.

Here's maybe where we diverge a bit on Barrett and probably also prospects like THT. There is a lot of value in shot type.......for considering shooting and offensive projection.

And from what I see (in the data I care about), 3PT rate and volume tends to be a more reliable indicator of NBA success than just a number like 2P%, 3P% or even FG%. If you get all of the above, that player is pretty likely to succeed (Duh, captain obvious here).

But FG% on it's own doesn't necessarily give you a clear picture of a prospect. For example:

Player A - .607 FG%, 37.7 PTS/100
Player B - .459 FG%, 31.1 PTS/100

Which of the above players would it seem like you would want? They play the same position.

My draft calculation says you want player B, because of his mix of 3PT rate and volume. Player A is typically less likely to succeed because he scores, almost exclusively, on 2PFGA....that carry a lower PPA as less efficient attempts. Over time, that can really add up (especially if player A is incapable or unwilling to shoot like player B already does). It's also far easier to sustain / improve on player B's shooting numbers than it would be player A, another consideration.

You also have to remind yourself how small the sample size is, even more so for guys that shoot a lot of 3's. Someone like Barrett might shoot 3000-4000+ 3's in his NBA career. What his percentage is shooting 200 of them, at age 18, is less of a consideration. That's why percentages matter a bit less, especially in a single college season (for someone like Barrett). 3PA and rate have other effects not measured in a box score, like defender proximity, floor spacing, etc. that have been shown to tack on additional value as well. Just something worth considering.

 

[Ozone]

Don't think he has the mental makeup to ever be a star, but few guys have a more obvious fit at the next level IMO. Ultra-switchable defender, and while he's not overly skilled on offense, he can hit an open shot and he plays winning, team-first basketball. Would be a sweet grab in the second ground.

Yep, I'm thinking he is potentially worth a late 1st if that's where the Rockets pick ends up, given his high iq defensively.

 

[Ozone]

Depending on where they fall and who comes out:

Coby White
Charles Bassey
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Grant Williams
Markus Howard - yes I know he is 5'11"

I feel like there is maybe one clear #1 player in the draft (Williamson), about 12 that have the numbers to justify a lottery level pick, and then there is a lot of good depth going into the second round of good players for that area. I wish the Cavs had a couple of second rounders for some of these guys.

Bassey might be there and Howard is a 2nd rounder/can't defend at the next level.
I like King,Okpala or Dort if the pick is 18-24.
I like Okeke, Clarke or Schofield 25-30

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Here’s a good one... would you rather have Jontay Porter or Brandon’s Clarke?

Jontay much younger and better offensive upside, but not the athlete nor defender Clarke is + has the family history of knee injuries.

I’d take Jontay, but some of their similarities (BBall IQ, positional ?s) made me curious to hear if anyone thought differently.

 

[Nathan S]

Here’s a good one... would you rather have Jontay Porter or Brandon’s Clarke?

Jontay much younger and better offensive upside, but not the athlete nor defender Clarke is + has the family history of knee injuries.

I’d take Jontay, but some of their similarities (BBall IQ, positional ?s) made me curious to hear if anyone thought differently.

I'd probably take Jontay, but in my mind this is a pure upside vs. proven production comparison. If Jontay stays healthy, there's no reason why he can't develop into a Jokic-like franchise player. Clarke on the other hand seems like a mortal lock to be at least a positive-impact roleplayer, but I think it's a fantasy to believe that he could expand his offensive game to the point that he's a real star in the NBA.

 

[Ozone]

Porter has too much injury baggage for my taste. But that doesn't mean a team won't strongly consider taking him as high as late teens.
If he is up to full speed, participates at the combine in all drills etc, he is too skilled and will be gone before the Houston pick anyway. If not, I'm not taking that risk and am taking a high ceiling project other than him, or a proven role player like Clarke

 

[I'mWithDan]

Here’s a good one... would you rather have Jontay Porter or Brandon’s Clarke?

Jontay much younger and better offensive upside, but not the athlete nor defender Clarke is + has the family history of knee injuries.

I’d take Jontay, but some of their similarities (BBall IQ, positional ?s) made me curious to hear if anyone thought differently.

In the 20's, I generally think it would be unwise to pass on an almost sure fire high level role player like Clarke, for a lower ceiling athlete like Porter.....especially one that isn't more of the burly body type of a Love or Jokic, who physically was capable of punishing smaller players.

I like Jontay and he is generally rated well by the different metrics I look at but athletically, he was one of the worst combine performers (across the board) last year and then you add a knee injury on top of that. Maybe he's ok but that is just a big ask.

I'd take him over someone like Kevin Porter Jr., who has a litany of issues unrelated to basketball but I'd have a lot of trouble taking him over guys like Clarke, Thybulle or even Fernando. Picking in the 20's, of this draft specifically, is actually a really nice spot to nab a lower ceiling but high floor guy who can actually stick and contribute long term.

I'm fine taking a swing with that pick but I'm not sure if Jontay is the guy I want to hitch my cart to. I wouldn't hate it if it was in addition to Zion but if we land Ja or Barrett, I'd much rather have a bouncy athlete who doesn't need the ball, with plus defensive potential, who can space the floor but also contribute as an NBA athlete in transition.

 

[Nathan S]

In the 20's, I generally think it would be unwise to pass on an almost sure fire high level role player like Clarke, for a lower ceiling athlete like Porter.....especially one that isn't more of the burly body type of a Love or Jokic, who physically was capable of punishing smaller players.

I like Jontay and he is generally rated well by the different metrics I look at but athletically, he was one of the worst combine performers (across the board) last year and then you add a knee injury on top of that. Maybe he's ok but that is just a big ask.

I'd take him over someone like Kevin Porter Jr., who has a litany of issues unrelated to basketball but I'd have a lot of trouble taking him over guys like Clarke, Thybulle or even Fernando. Picking in the 20's, of this draft specifically, is actually a really nice spot to nab a lower ceiling but high floor guy who can actually stick and contribute long term.

I'm fine taking a swing with that pick but I'm not sure if Jontay is the guy I want to hitch my cart to. I wouldn't hate it if it was in addition to Zion but if we land Ja or Barrett, I'd much rather have a bouncy athlete who doesn't need the ball, with plus defensive potential, who can space the floor but also contribute as an NBA athlete in transition.

I don't buy that Jontay is generally a worse athlete than Jokic at the same age. Love was immensely strong, even as a teenager, but Jokic was (and still is tbh) much more of finesse player than a bruiser. There's also pretty good evidence on film (and also from the shuttle run drill) that he's agile laterally in spite of carrying a decent amount of baby fat.

But of course, that's all pre-knee injury.

 

[Nathan S]

Speaking of injured bigs, Goga was apparently a late scratch today, wiping out a much-anticipated matchup against Spurs' stash Nikola Milutinov. May have aggravated an ankle injury that he returned from about a week ago. I tend to think that he'll be drafted in the lottery even if he sits out the rest of the season, but the more he sits the better the chances that he'll still be on the board for the Rockets' pick.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

In the 20's, I generally think it would be unwise to pass on an almost sure fire high level role player like Clarke, for a lower ceiling athlete like Porter.....especially one that isn't more of the burly body type of a Love or Jokic, who physically was capable of punishing smaller players.

I like Jontay and he is generally rated well by the different metrics I look at but athletically, he was one of the worst combine performers (across the board) last year and then you add a knee injury on top of that. Maybe he's ok but that is just a big ask.

I'd take him over someone like Kevin Porter Jr., who has a litany of issues unrelated to basketball but I'd have a lot of trouble taking him over guys like Clarke, Thybulle or even Fernando. Picking in the 20's, of this draft specifically, is actually a really nice spot to nab a lower ceiling but high floor guy who can actually stick and contribute long term.

I'm fine taking a swing with that pick but I'm not sure if Jontay is the guy I want to hitch my cart to. I wouldn't hate it if it was in addition to Zion but if we land Ja or Barrett, I'd much rather have a bouncy athlete who doesn't need the ball, with plus defensive potential, who can space the floor but also contribute as an NBA athlete in transition.

I'm still waiting to hear what all the issues are. With how often they're talked about, I would've expect for more things to leak out by now.

One thing with Jontay though with that injury is that it's not like he was athletic before, so the injury doesn't take away from his projection for me as opposed to the average ACL tear. An additional interesting conversation to me is how much we weight injuries leading into the draft. How often do we overvalue injuries and therefore underrate prospects? The thought has come up alot for me with Garland too. His MCL injury doesn't affect my opinion too too much honestly... the biggest factor with it is just the sample risk.