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2022 Fantasy Football

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I have to unburden myself of something: I truly love the spelling "Fantasty".

NFL! It's Fan-Tasty!
 
Had a live rookie draft tonight in my main league. League is 10 teams, .5 PPR.

My Draft:
---
1.08 - Chris Olave
1.10 - Jameson Williams
2.02 - James Cook
3.07 - Isiah Pacheco
4.08 - Greg Dulcich
4.10 - Isaiah Likely
6.10 - Kyle Phillips

I thought the first round broke really well for me. George Pickens went at the 1.02, which was one of the only big surprises of the draft. Skyy Moore went 1.07, which pushed Olave down to eight, which was shocking only because this is mostly an Ohio-based league and so a lot of OSU fans. Their players usually get over-drafted, not under. Pierce went 1.09.

I took Williams at the 1.10 despite my reservations, which mostly revolve around the fact that I recently took another speedy Alabama WR at the 1.10...Henry Ruggs. Cook at 2.02 was just a chalk pick. He was the BPA and there was a clear tier break after him.

After that I just took shots on a few lottery ticket guys and then Phillips in the last round who is more of a potential high floor slot guy, meaning the kind of guy I look to flip for a future second or third in this league after they have a decent season.
 
Jack Brickman said:
Had a live rookie draft tonight in my main league. League is 10 teams, .5 PPR.

My Draft:
---
1.08 - Chris Olave
1.10 - Jameson Williams
2.02 - James Cook
3.07 - Isiah Pacheco
4.08 - Greg Dulcich
4.10 - Isaiah Likely
6.10 - Kyle Phillips

I thought the first round broke really well for me. George Pickens went at the 1.02, which was one of the only big surprises of the draft. Skyy Moore went 1.07, which pushed Olave down to eight, which was shocking only because this is mostly an Ohio-based league and so a lot of OSU fans. Their players usually get over-drafted, not under. Pierce went 1.09.

I took Williams at the 1.10 despite my reservations, which mostly revolve around the fact that I recently took another speedy Alabama WR at the 1.10...Henry Ruggs. Cook at 2.02 was just a chalk pick. He was the BPA and there was a clear tier break after him.

After that I just took shots on a few lottery ticket guys and then Phillips in the last round who is more of a potential high floor slot guy, meaning the kind of guy I look to flip for a future second or third in this league after they have a decent season.
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I think you did a hell of a job honestly. As long as you didn't need a QB/didn't want to gamble on one, this is really good.
 
How high is everybody on McCaffrey this season? I'm seeing him as the consensus #2 guy behind Taylor and I'm just not with it.
 
Stark said:
How high is everybody on McCaffrey this season? I'm seeing him as the consensus #2 guy behind Taylor and I'm just not with it.
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As someone who had the number 1 pick in two leagues last year, I'd stay far away from him.
 
Stark said:
How high is everybody on McCaffrey this season? I'm seeing him as the consensus #2 guy behind Taylor and I'm just not with it.
Click to expand...
Staying the fuck away, no matter what.
 
Stark said:
I think you did a hell of a job honestly. As long as you didn't need a QB/didn't want to gamble on one, this is really good.
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It’s single QB and I’ve got Herbert and Rodgers, so QB wasn’t even on my radar until at least the third. Would have taken Pickett if he fell far enough and just put him on taxi for a year but someone drafted him a few picks before the fourth rounder I would have used on him and I don’t think anyone else was really worth drafting in 1QB.
 
Stark said:
How high is everybody on McCaffrey this season? I'm seeing him as the consensus #2 guy behind Taylor and I'm just not with it.
Click to expand...

From everything I've read, none of his injuries are things that have high recurrence rates, and his re-injury risk isn't any different than someone like Ekeler, Mixon, Jones, Swift, or Saquon. So then I ask what his upside is, and I think it's the same game-breaking upside he's always had (and higher than any of the guys just listed). So I can make a case for him to be #1.

When I look at Taylor, his #1 season last year is one of the lower #1 seasons we've seen, so he's no runaway. If his volume, TD rate & share, or pass catching reduce, he's still elite but not separating from the field in such a way that McCaffrey could.

So honestly, I see them both as viable #1 choices, or #2 choices if there. It's a whole separate discussion to take a WR #1/2, but a real one to have.

Sort of related, Dalvin Cook and Henry seem to be on the higher end of the re-injury risk. All best guesses are it's 50/50 if Cook dislocates his shoulder again in a given year, and if Henry's foot injury was wear and tear versus acute, it's likely a sign of his breakdown. But each of those guys could also finish #1 in FF, but I'd see them as higher risk.
 
Cavalier Domer said:
From everything I've read, none of his injuries are things that have high recurrence rates, and his re-injury risk isn't any different than someone like Ekeler, Mixon, Jones, Swift, or Saquon. So then I ask what his upside is, and I think it's the same game-breaking upside he's always had (and higher than any of the guys just listed). So I can make a case for him to be #1.

When I look at Taylor, his #1 season last year is one of the lower #1 seasons we've seen, so he's no runaway. If his volume, TD rate & share, or pass catching reduce, he's still elite but not separating from the field in such a way that McCaffrey could.

So honestly, I see them both as viable #1 choices, or #2 choices if there. It's a whole separate discussion to take a WR #1/2, but a real one to have.

Sort of related, Dalvin Cook and Henry seem to be on the higher end of the re-injury risk. All best guesses are it's 50/50 if Cook dislocates his shoulder again in a given year, and if Henry's foot injury was wear and tear versus acute, it's likely a sign of his breakdown. But each of those guys could also finish #1 in FF, but I'd see them as higher risk.
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It’s worth nothing that Taylor’s situation improved. Matt Ryan is a much better QB than Carson Wentz, and thus the Colts will presumably have more positive game scripts.
 
Jack Brickman said:
It’s worth nothing that Taylor’s situation improved. Matt Ryan is a much better QB than Carson Wentz, and thus the Colts will presumably have more positive game scripts.
Click to expand...

I agree with this as well, and I just don't know how to bake in the variance the increased offensive output and positive game scripts bring based on Ryan and coaching. Presumably, more scoring opportunities is better for Taylor with the better offense, but Matt Ryan always passed at a very high rate in the red zone. Was that him or the coaching? Lack of a solid RB option toward the end in Atlanta? If you have the stud RB you should use him in the red zone, and I think Frank Reich knows that, but he's also commenting about wanting to throw it more, and that fits with going after Matt Ryan.
 
Cavalier Domer said:
I agree with this as well, and I just don't know how to bake in the variance the increased offensive output and positive game scripts bring based on Ryan and coaching. Presumably, more scoring opportunities is better for Taylor with the better offense, but Matt Ryan always passed at a very high rate in the red zone. Was that him or the coaching?
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It was the coaching.
 
Cavalier Domer said:
I agree with this as well, and I just don't know how to bake in the variance the increased offensive output and positive game scripts bring based on Ryan and coaching. Presumably, more scoring opportunities is better for Taylor with the better offense, but Matt Ryan always passed at a very high rate in the red zone. Was that him or the coaching? Lack of a solid RB option toward the end in Atlanta? If you have the stud RB you should use him in the red zone, and I think Frank Reich knows that, but he's also commenting about wanting to throw it more, and that fits with going after Matt Ryan.
Click to expand...

Matt also threw to the RB a lot, which is good for Taylor. He’s a great dump off back.
 
Strategy question:

In my 10 TM, 2QB PPR keeper league, we are keeping 5 this year. My 5 most likely are:
  1. Mahomes
  2. Dak
  3. CeeDee
  4. Tyreek
  5. Andrews
I also have Akers, Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, DJ Moore, Elijah Moore.

I have the 3rd and 5th picks in the first round of the redraft process, and 4 picks in the top 25 (3,5,17,25).

These will be the top RBs available, and my league is notorious for snatching up RBs.
  • Dillon
  • Dobbins
  • Akers
  • Patterson
  • Hall
  • CEH
  • Pollard
  • Stevenson
  • Gibson
  • Hunt
  • Pierce
  • Edmonds
  • Jacobs
  • Etc...
However, there will be some tasty WRs out there that should outperform these guys like:
  • Pittman
  • DJ Moore
  • ARob
  • Mike Williams
  • St. Brown
Do I eschew RB for two top WRs with those 3rd and 5th overall picks (we can start up to 4 WRs) and then piece together RBs? Or do I take the best available RBs, and see who falls with the later picks?
 
Hurl Bruce said:
Strategy question:

In my 10 TM, 2QB PPR keeper league, we are keeping 5 this year. My 5 most likely are:
  1. Mahomes
  2. Dak
  3. CeeDee
  4. Tyreek
  5. Andrews
I also have Akers, Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, DJ Moore, Elijah Moore.

I have the 3rd and 5th picks in the first round of the redraft process, and 4 picks in the top 25 (3,5,17,25).

These will be the top RBs available, and my league is notorious for snatching up RBs.
  • Dillon
  • Dobbins
  • Akers
  • Patterson
  • Hall
  • CEH
  • Pollard
  • Stevenson
  • Gibson
  • Hunt
  • Pierce
  • Edmonds
  • Jacobs
  • Etc...
However, there will be some tasty WRs out there that should outperform these guys like:
  • Pittman
  • DJ Moore
  • ARob
  • Mike Williams
  • St. Brown
Do I eschew RB for two top WRs with those 3rd and 5th overall picks (we can start up to 4 WRs) and then piece together RBs? Or do I take the best available RBs, and see who falls with the later picks?
Click to expand...
I'd absolutely take 2 of Pittman, Moore, Robinson, Williams before any of the RBs on that list, and St. Brown is probably on par for me with a lot of the RBs.

You'll have an advantage at WR and TE against most opponents, and RBs after the upper echelon (none of which are on that last) are historically pretty interchangeable, so piece it together and have a rock solid foundation at the other positions.
 
Agree. Given the RB talent available, I'd rather have two of those top four WRs and look to address RB with 17 and 25, or even later depending on how the draft plays out.

I'm a little less bullish on St. Brown simply because so much of his boom performances at the end of the season came with Hockenson and Swift out and a truly garbage group of WRs on the field, and they'll both presumably be back and soaking up target shares this year. Plus, Jameson Williams will take the field at some point too, and Chark also has to get at least 60 or 70 targets if healthy, right? I still think he'll be good, but I'm tempering my expectations for a guy who doesn't have a superstar profile and is surrounded by high-end talent.
 
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