- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 9,998
- Reaction score
- 28,728
- Points
- 135
Winners of 10 of their last 13 games the Cavs stay home to take on the Milwaukee Bucks, who they will play three times in the next 10 days. The Bucks are 28-12 overall, but that breaks down to 19-4 at home and 9-8 on the road. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home but just average on the road.
Milwaukee is 4-4 in their last eight games. They have played the league’s third easiest schedule so I’m skeptical that they’re really as good as their record, especially since they’ve played 23 games at home against 17 on the road.
On Dec. 29 the Cavs lost a close one to the Bucks in Cleveland by a 119-111 score. The Cavs were without Garland and Mobley while the Bucks had everyone healthy. The Cavs had the worst 3-point shooting night in franchise history, going 6-for-43. They still trailed by four points with under a minute to go.
The Cavs were a jaw-dropping 0-for-22 on 3-point attempts where the nearest defender was more than six feet away. There’s no way that has happened before and I can’t see it happening again. Niang and LeVert combined to go 0-for-12 while Mitchell and Strus were 4-for-21 from deep. This game would have been a comfortable win for the Cavs if they just made 5 of their 20 wide open 3’s.
This game should feature almost the same lineups. Garland and Mobley are still out. The Bucks are getting former Cavalier Jae Crowder back. Crowder suffered an abdominal tear that required surgery in Game 9. He should help the Bucks defensively. Crowder was averaging 8 points and shooting 52% on 3’s before the injury. This will be his first game since the injury. Before he was hurt the Bucks were -15.2 points when he was on the floor - worst on the team.
The Bucks are exceptional offensively, averaging 125 points per game, second in the Association. They’re average at points in the paint and below average in fast break points. They set up their half court offense and hunt 3-pointers, ranking 6th in 3-point rate. They are terrific outside shooters, ranking 2nd in 3-point percentage. They also draw a lot of fouls, which is unusual for a team that takes tons of 3’s. The Bucks rank 4th in free throws per possession, mainly due to Giannis drawing a lot of fouls. The refs give him all the close ones and a few non-fouls as we saw in the first game.
The Bucks have the 5th lowest turnover rate and are 9th in second chance points per missed shot.
The Bucks shoot 38.3% from deep so the key is to contest the 3’s. The Cavs held them to 119 points last game which is 4 points below their road average. They need to do a little better this time. Over the last two weeks the Cavs lead the NBA in scoring defense but part of that is due to playing bad teams.
Defensively it’s a different story as the Bucks rank 24th in scoring defense at 120 points per game. They’re 25th in points in the paint and Jarrett Allen tore them up for 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists in December. Brook Lopez at age 35 is probably not as quick or mobile as he once was. Recently Giannis ripped his teammates for “dying on screens”.
The Bucks do a good job forcing misses as they rank 8th in opponents’ effective shooting percentage. Their problem is they are last in forcing turnovers, so their opponents get a lot of shots up. This is an older team and they don’t go for steals (ranking 29th). They’re average in defensive rebounding, but they held the Cavs to only 7 offensive rebounds in the first game.
The Bucks are much better defending the 3-point shot (3rd) than the 2-pointer (17th), so the Cavs should take it to the rim whenever possible. However, the Cavs have been taking more 3’s than anybody over the last couple of weeks. Their last two games over 50% of their shots were 3’s so I expect they will keep jacking them up. Let’s hope they do better than 6-for-43 this time.
The Bucks are a top heavy team; six players provide most of the scoring. Their top six players average 108 of their 125 points.
Giannis has a line of 31/11/6 and he’s hitting 61% of his shots and getting to the line 11.2 times per game. Giannis shoots 77% at the rim but just 34% on midrange shots and 23% on 3’s so the key is to stay in front of him and make him shoot over you. Good luck with that.
Damian Lillard is averaging 25 points and 7 assists; he’s hitting 43% overall and 35% on 3’s. Khris Middleton is averaging 14.7 points on 25 minutes per game. He sat the last game for load management for his right knee. They are trying to nurse him through the season. He only played 33 games last year.
Brook Lopez, is averaging 12.8 points and 5.2 rebounds in 31 minutes. Like Middleton and Lillard he’s another 30+ player trying to keep his production up. SG Malik Beasley averages 12 points but he is a dangerous outside shooter, hitting 48% of his 3’s. He was 5-for-8 from deep against the Cavs in December. One more and he would have had as many as the entire Cavaliers team in 35 fewer attempts.
Bobby Portis is their 6th man, averaging 12.6 points and 6.9 rebounds on 51% shooting. After their top six players nobody on their bench averages more than 6.5 points per game. In the first game the Bucks’ bench contributed just 17 of their 119 points and 9 were from Portis.
On 2-point shots the Cavs were 43-for-60, or 71.7% in the December game. On 3-point shots they made 14%. Given how successful they were at 2-point shots I think they should attack the rim this game and only take the totally uncontested 3’s that result. The Bucks are 29th in steals so the Cavs should have no problem attacking the paint and kicking it out for open 3’s.
The Bucks are old; Lopez is 35, Lillard and Crowder are 33, and Middleton 32. When you include Pat Connaughton it makes five of their top eight players who are over 30 and they get very little from their bench. I really wonder if they can stay healthy enough to make it to the EC Finals.
I’m looking forward tremendously to see what the Cavs can do in these three games against the Bucks. After tonight these teams play in Milwaukee next Wednesday and Friday. Still no Garland or Mobley, however. The Cavs have played an easy schedule the last couple of weeks so now we’ll find out how good they really are without two starters.
Donovan Mitchell said it’s starting to come together offensively and defensively, and the Cavs are #1 in the NBA in scoring defense the last five games, although against weaker competition. These three games against the Bucks along with Monday’s game in Orlando will tell us a lot about where the Cavs are at the moment as they await the return of Garland and Mobley. This game will be on ESPN.
Milwaukee is 4-4 in their last eight games. They have played the league’s third easiest schedule so I’m skeptical that they’re really as good as their record, especially since they’ve played 23 games at home against 17 on the road.
On Dec. 29 the Cavs lost a close one to the Bucks in Cleveland by a 119-111 score. The Cavs were without Garland and Mobley while the Bucks had everyone healthy. The Cavs had the worst 3-point shooting night in franchise history, going 6-for-43. They still trailed by four points with under a minute to go.
The Cavs were a jaw-dropping 0-for-22 on 3-point attempts where the nearest defender was more than six feet away. There’s no way that has happened before and I can’t see it happening again. Niang and LeVert combined to go 0-for-12 while Mitchell and Strus were 4-for-21 from deep. This game would have been a comfortable win for the Cavs if they just made 5 of their 20 wide open 3’s.
This game should feature almost the same lineups. Garland and Mobley are still out. The Bucks are getting former Cavalier Jae Crowder back. Crowder suffered an abdominal tear that required surgery in Game 9. He should help the Bucks defensively. Crowder was averaging 8 points and shooting 52% on 3’s before the injury. This will be his first game since the injury. Before he was hurt the Bucks were -15.2 points when he was on the floor - worst on the team.
The Bucks are exceptional offensively, averaging 125 points per game, second in the Association. They’re average at points in the paint and below average in fast break points. They set up their half court offense and hunt 3-pointers, ranking 6th in 3-point rate. They are terrific outside shooters, ranking 2nd in 3-point percentage. They also draw a lot of fouls, which is unusual for a team that takes tons of 3’s. The Bucks rank 4th in free throws per possession, mainly due to Giannis drawing a lot of fouls. The refs give him all the close ones and a few non-fouls as we saw in the first game.
The Bucks have the 5th lowest turnover rate and are 9th in second chance points per missed shot.
The Bucks shoot 38.3% from deep so the key is to contest the 3’s. The Cavs held them to 119 points last game which is 4 points below their road average. They need to do a little better this time. Over the last two weeks the Cavs lead the NBA in scoring defense but part of that is due to playing bad teams.
Defensively it’s a different story as the Bucks rank 24th in scoring defense at 120 points per game. They’re 25th in points in the paint and Jarrett Allen tore them up for 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists in December. Brook Lopez at age 35 is probably not as quick or mobile as he once was. Recently Giannis ripped his teammates for “dying on screens”.
The Bucks do a good job forcing misses as they rank 8th in opponents’ effective shooting percentage. Their problem is they are last in forcing turnovers, so their opponents get a lot of shots up. This is an older team and they don’t go for steals (ranking 29th). They’re average in defensive rebounding, but they held the Cavs to only 7 offensive rebounds in the first game.
The Bucks are much better defending the 3-point shot (3rd) than the 2-pointer (17th), so the Cavs should take it to the rim whenever possible. However, the Cavs have been taking more 3’s than anybody over the last couple of weeks. Their last two games over 50% of their shots were 3’s so I expect they will keep jacking them up. Let’s hope they do better than 6-for-43 this time.
The Bucks are a top heavy team; six players provide most of the scoring. Their top six players average 108 of their 125 points.
Giannis has a line of 31/11/6 and he’s hitting 61% of his shots and getting to the line 11.2 times per game. Giannis shoots 77% at the rim but just 34% on midrange shots and 23% on 3’s so the key is to stay in front of him and make him shoot over you. Good luck with that.
Damian Lillard is averaging 25 points and 7 assists; he’s hitting 43% overall and 35% on 3’s. Khris Middleton is averaging 14.7 points on 25 minutes per game. He sat the last game for load management for his right knee. They are trying to nurse him through the season. He only played 33 games last year.
Brook Lopez, is averaging 12.8 points and 5.2 rebounds in 31 minutes. Like Middleton and Lillard he’s another 30+ player trying to keep his production up. SG Malik Beasley averages 12 points but he is a dangerous outside shooter, hitting 48% of his 3’s. He was 5-for-8 from deep against the Cavs in December. One more and he would have had as many as the entire Cavaliers team in 35 fewer attempts.
Bobby Portis is their 6th man, averaging 12.6 points and 6.9 rebounds on 51% shooting. After their top six players nobody on their bench averages more than 6.5 points per game. In the first game the Bucks’ bench contributed just 17 of their 119 points and 9 were from Portis.
On 2-point shots the Cavs were 43-for-60, or 71.7% in the December game. On 3-point shots they made 14%. Given how successful they were at 2-point shots I think they should attack the rim this game and only take the totally uncontested 3’s that result. The Bucks are 29th in steals so the Cavs should have no problem attacking the paint and kicking it out for open 3’s.
The Bucks are old; Lopez is 35, Lillard and Crowder are 33, and Middleton 32. When you include Pat Connaughton it makes five of their top eight players who are over 30 and they get very little from their bench. I really wonder if they can stay healthy enough to make it to the EC Finals.
I’m looking forward tremendously to see what the Cavs can do in these three games against the Bucks. After tonight these teams play in Milwaukee next Wednesday and Friday. Still no Garland or Mobley, however. The Cavs have played an easy schedule the last couple of weeks so now we’ll find out how good they really are without two starters.
Donovan Mitchell said it’s starting to come together offensively and defensively, and the Cavs are #1 in the NBA in scoring defense the last five games, although against weaker competition. These three games against the Bucks along with Monday’s game in Orlando will tell us a lot about where the Cavs are at the moment as they await the return of Garland and Mobley. This game will be on ESPN.
