So here is my series preview. On Saturday I will put up a game thread for Game 1 in the Game Day thread.
This series involves two teams that had similar records in the regular season, finishing 4th and 5th in the East. Based on their 82-game results they appear closely matched. The Cavaliers had a slightly better overall record but the Knicks won the series 3-1.
The Knicks were an average team for the first two-thirds of the season. After 52 games their record was 27-25. But they finished 20-8 before the last two meaningless games.
The Cavaliers went 19-8 down the stretch before the last two meaningless games. So both teams finished equally strong.
With regard to the head-to-head matchups, none of the four games are particularly instructive, IMO, since none of them replicated the way these teams will line up in the playoffs.
The Cavs won at home back in October in their 6th game. Kevin Love scored 29 points in 22 minutes. Dean Wade, before his shoulder injury, started and scored 22 points. The two of them combined for 14 three-pointers and the Cavs were 23-for-50 from deep. Love is gone and Wade is not the same player since the shoulder injury.
The Knicks won in early December in New York with Jarrett Allen out. Diakite started for Allen and the Cavs were -10 in his 11 minutes, losing by 11 points. Garland was 5-for-19 and the Cavs were 8-for-35 from deep.
The Knicks won in New York in January by a 105-103 score. Both teams had their normal starters, but Kevin Love was a -20 in 12 minutes. It was his last game as a Cavalier. Ricky Rubio, in just his sixth game back from missing a year with a knee injury, was a -26 in 13 minutes. LeVert was a -19 in 21 minutes. Basically the Cavs starters kicked butt but the bench lost the game. Garland, Mitchell, Allen, and Okoro were all between +12 and +20, which is encouraging. Starting center Mitch Robinson was out for the Knicks, however.
The Knicks won March 31 in Cleveland 130-116. Julius Randle was out but Jalen Brunson went crazy, scoring a career high 48 points. Nobody else on the Knicks had more than 14. The Knicks were 17-for-36 on 3’s. Allen was out for the Cavs along with Okoro. With Allen out and Stevens starting in his place the Knicks owned the glass 48-33, including a 16-3 advantage on the offensive boards.
So none of those games reflect how these teams will line up in the playoffs. If Randle is still out then we’ll see the same Knicks team we saw ten days ago where Brunson went off for 48 points. But the Cavs will have Allen and Okoro back this time.
My keys to the series:
1. Will Julius Randle play? He leads the Knicks in scoring (25.1), rebounding (10.0), and is second in assists (4.1). He’s their best player, period. Even if he plays, will he be 100% and will he be in condition to play a lot of minutes after not being able to run for at least two weeks?
2. Can the Cavaliers find a way to stop Jalen Brunson from taking over the game? They tried various defenders in the last game but nobody could stop him from getting to his spots and hitting his shots. The mid-range fallaway was especially lethal.
Note: The Cavs will be studying that game in case Randle doesn’t play and they should be better prepared for Brunson next time. However, they expect Randle will try to “gut it out” even if his ankle is not 100%.
3. Will Donovan Mitchell rise to the occasion and have a great series? He’s averaging 31.8 points in four games against the Knicks on 50.6% from the field and 46.8% on 3’s, not to mention 7.5 assists per game. He’s been a nightmare for the Knicks this year. And he’s now gone into dark mode to focus on the playoffs.
4. Can Darius Garland snap out of it? In three games he’s shooting just 34.5% from the field against the Knicks and 36.8% on 3’s. That won’t cut it. For some reason he has not played well against them. Brunson has badly outplayed him, shooting 47.5% and 45.5% and averaging 25.3 ppg against the Cavs. The Cavs need Darius to at least match Brunson and not be outplayed by him.
5. Can the Cavs bench not lose the series for them? Caris LeVert is shooting 29% against the Knicks. Cedi is shooting 36% overall and 33% on 3’s at under 7 points per game. Rubio is shooting 29% and 20%. Stevens is shooting 36%. Okoro is shooting 27% and 17%. The Knicks have done a number of all of the Cavs’ bench players except Dean Wade, who has shot well (67%) but not often in three games.
The Cavs’ bench doesn’t have to win the series, but they can’t play as badly as they have against the Knicks in the regular season. If Okoro starts I could see an 8-man rotation with LeVert, Cedi, and Wade off the bench. Rubio is a long way from being 100% and Stevens has not been able to score at the rim or from long range.
The Knicks have an excellent bench with Hartenstein, Hart, Toppin, and Quickley. Their bench is much better than what the Cavs have, IMO. Can LeVert, Cedi, Wade, and possibly Rubio or Stevens man up and not get trashed like they did in the previous four games?
The wild card is Raul Neto, who was the only Cavs’ defender to take Brunson out of his game the last time they played. He might be a better choice than Rubio who at the age of 32 and with a still recovering knee has no chance of keeping up with Brunson or Quickley.
6. Can the Cavs get enough defensive rebounds? The Knicks are second in the NBA in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 28% of their missed shots. This has to be a point of emphasis in the Cavs’ game preparations. Playing great defense and forcing a miss only to see the opponent grab the rebound is demoralizing. Donovan Mitchell is an outstanding rebounder and I want to see him helping on the defensive glass.
7. Can Bickerstaff pull the right strings? There are a lot of decisions as to matchups, the rotation, time-outs, substitutions, etc. I assume with over a week off the plan will be for Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen to all play 40 minutes. Will they hold up playing that many minutes? If the Knicks go small are the Cavs better with Mobley and Allen together or just one of them?
In my opinion Bickerstaff’s job will be to maximize his starters and minimize his bench. The key will be finding the right players off the bench to match up with Hart, Quickley, Toppin, and Hartenstein to prevent that group from winning the game for the Knicks.
A few numbers - The Knicks average 116 points, the Cavs 112 (rounded off). The Cavs allow 107 points, the Knicks 113. So the Cavs are better defensively and the Knicks offensively, but if Randle is out or limited that could change.
These teams rank 23rd and 24th in fast break points. They both like the half-court offense.
The Knicks take 40% of their shots from the 3-point line, the Cavs’ 37%. But the Cavs make a higher percentage, 37% to 35%.
The Knicks average 12.5 offensive rebounds per game to 9.7 for the Cavs. They are basically even in defensive rebound percentage.
Defensively both teams are dead even in opponent’s effective shooting percentage. The Cavs allow the fewest 3-point attempts per game (30.6). I think this is because Mobley does a great job closing out and forcing the shooter to pass off. Knicks’ opponents take 36.5 3’s per game, which is fifth most. I’m not sure why they take so many unless the Knicks’ defensive approach is to pack the paint and make opponents shoot from deep.
The Athletic had this on the Knicks’ offense:
Are the Knicks going to finish with a top-three offense ever? This is a little tricky to figure out on the fly, but we do know the Knicks have an elite offense this season. NBA.com/stats has the Knicks in a three-way tie with Denver and Philadelphia for the third-best offense this season. Basketball-Reference has the Knicks with the third-best offense of all time, slightly ahead of Philly, Boston and Denver (as well as 2021 Portland).
These aren’t uniformed between the two sites because of how they calculate possessions differently, but still, the Knicks might end up with the third best offensive season in NBA history.
Over the last two weeks the Knicks had the #1 scoring offense in the league per cleaningtheglass.com. They scored 130 on the Cavs (who allow 107 per game) recently, although Allen and Okoro were out.
If the Knicks are missing their leading scorer, rebounder, and second leading assist guy, it will definitely impact their offense (unless Brunson can pick up the slack and score 48 every game). This could be a series between one of the best offenses of all-time and the league's best defense.
In the final analysis I think the Cavs have a couple of advantages. One, the home court advantage, although the Knicks have a winning record on the road. Two, the Randle injury, assuming he either misses some games or is limited in his effectiveness or minutes. And three, in an elimination series with days off between every game the starters can and will play more minutes than usual, which minimizes the Knicks’ bench advantage.
If the Cavs have better starters but the Knicks have a better bench the Cavs should have the advantage in a playoff series with days off between every game and no need to manage starters’ minutes for the long haul.
But even with these advantages for the Cavs to prevail Mitchell needs to come up big while Garland, LeVert, and Cedi need to play much better against the Knicks than they did in the regular season. And Bickerstaff is going to have to pull the right strings.
A potential wild card will be the refereeing. I assume the league will hope the team with the much bigger market advances. If it comes down to the final possession in any of these games I don’t expect the Cavs to get any breaks.
