Ben McLemore: Worth the risk?

[Derek]

Lol was definitely not the leader. Throughout te season he was quoted on trying to become more aggressive because his team needed him to be. Boykin & the rest of the upperclassman definitely led that team until te end of the season where Beal started to show he could be the #1 option (like March Madness late).

Think what you want, I'm not trying to change your mind. By midseason that was his team and I say that confidently.

 

[Soar]

I can't help but think that McLemore might be a one dimensional player in the mold of a Gilbert Arenas or Ben Gordon. The guy really needs to add to his game for him to ever become a star. Some compare him to Ray Allen but Allen was a much better defender and all around player.

 

[RedeemTeam]

I know McLemore is more athletic than both these guys, but I wouldn't be very surprised if he turned out the same way

Xavier Henry, also out of Kansas, a 6'6 shooting guard drafted 12th overall in the 2010 draft. In college:
Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG
2009-10 36 27.5 13.4 45.8 41.8 78.3 1.5 4.4

In the NBA Henry averages 3.9 ppg, shooting 41% from the field and 36% from 3.


Wes Johnson, 6'7 guard out of Syracuse who was drafted 4th overall in 2010. In college:
Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG
2009-10 35 35.0 16.5 50.2 41.5 77.2 2.2 8.5

In the NBA Johnson averages 8ppg, shooting 39% from the field, and 35% from 3.


McLemore, a 6'5 guard, in college:
Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG
2012-13 37 32.2 15.9 49.5 42.0 87.0 2.0 5.2

Pretty similar stats and comparisons to these other two guards who flopped in the NBA.

Mclemore does have a 42in vert, versus 37in for Wes Johnson, and 36.5 for Xavier Henry. But he was slower than both in the lane agility and 3/4 sprint drills (even though these drills don't mean all that much for guards).
Mclemore: 11.87 lane agility, 3.27 sprint
Johnson: 11.43 lane agility, 3.14 sprint
Henry: 11.10 lane agility, 3.18 sprint

2010: http://www.nbadraft.net/nba-draft-combine-athleticism-test-results

2013: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre...13&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=0&source=All&sort=2

 

[Rich]

Wes Johnson. Damn. Could definitely see him being another Wes Johnson.

 

[TyGuy]

Didn't wes johnson play four years of college ball?

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[Kovah]

Didn't wes johnson play four years of college ball?

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Yes he did. Sat out third year though because of NCAA transfer rules

Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG%FT%APG RPG BPG SPG
2009-10 35 35.0 16.5 50.2 41.5 77.2 2.2 8.5 1.8 1.7
2007-08 27 27.0 12.4 39.6 33.3 77.9 1.4 4.0 0.4 0.9 (ISU)
2006-07 31 31.7 12.3 44.5 29.4 75.3 1.1 7.9 1.1 0.8 (ISU)

I really dislike comparing stats when it's comparing a 3+ year college player versus a 1 year freshman. Not comparable in my opinion with McLemore winning out if viewed in a development standpoint. Especially with McLemore attempting more than 50 more 3s in their final college seasons.



Stats really aren't everything especially with McLemore's shooting form to build on and get better.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4247/type/college/wesley-johnson

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/56652/ben-mclemore

 

[EdMonix11]

Other than being a superior athletic talent, is there anything else that McLemore does better than someone like Sergey Karasev? From everything I've seen, Karasev is bigger, a lot more confident, more versatile, a better playmaker, much more aggressive, and a better and more consistent jump shooter.

McLemore scares me because of his mind and the people around him. I think we've reached just the tip of the iceberg about the shady dealings a KU; and him hiring one of those shady fellows as his agent only adds more fuel to the fire. It's sad that the kid and his family are so desperate for money but what happens when a kid who grew up with nothing becomes a millionaire over night? He got into some trouble off the court at KU and I'm not so sure how he's going to handle having a truck load of cash nor the support system around him to steer him in the right direction.

 

[wuck]

Other than being a superior athletic talent, is there anything else that McLemore does better than someone like Sergey Karasev?

One thing is that Karasev has been talked about as being a potential major defensive liability. McLemore's athletic talent (among other things) hasn't raised as many concerns on the defensive front.

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

Sure, not all players improve the same amount. That's why it's also important to take into account work ethic and drive, which Kobe had in spades. But on average, 19 year olds improve more than 20 year olds, 20 year olds improve more than 21 year olds, and so on. It has to be that way. If 20 year olds improved the same amount as 19 year olds after coming into the NBA, all 19 year olds would be better off staying in college another year until age 20 and then coming into the NBA...and that doesn't add up.

Have to disagree on the margin of improvement being linear as age increases. Also, work ethic and drive are subjective to an outside evaluator. No way that can be quantified, especially when the situation a new player enters into can have drastic effects on his ability to succeed.

 

[clebron]

I know McLemore is more athletic than both these guys, but I wouldn't be very surprised if he turned out the same way

The biggest factor separating Wes Johnson and McLemore is ft%, the best indicator of how good a shooter someone actually is.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I'd have to agree with the other guy seeing as Kyrie played 11 games while at Duke.

There was no question KI was the best player in that draft

But

Tere was no indicator that he would be as good as he has been since being drafted by the Cavs and put up the kind of numbers he has and did in his rookie season.

KI's rookie season is one of the best ever don't really think anyone expected that or him being able to get to just about anywhere he wants on the floor with those handles. Don't think anyone expected his handles to turn elite as fast as they did.

There was definitely an indicator: advanced stats. Kryie's metrics were basically off the charts good. Yeah, it was surprising he had one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, but it's surprising when any rookie has one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time.

Mclemore played a whole season so it's much eaiser to have a read on him as a prospect than it was on Kyrie when he came out. All I'm pointing out.

Yes, and, based on that whole season, he's nowhere near the prospect that Kyrie Irving is. Even comparing the two is an insult to Kyrie. McLemore is an athletic guy who can shoot really well. He's not a complete player by any stretch of the imagination. Kyrie was basically the total package. He was a guy who did everything well.

 

[KB]

There was definitely an indicator: advanced stats. Kryie's metrics were basically off the charts good. Yeah, it was surprising he had one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, but it's surprising when any rookie has one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time.

Yes, and, based on that whole season, he's nowhere near the prospect that Kyrie Irving is.

Even comparing the two is an insult to Kyrie. McLemore is an athletic guy who can shoot really well. He's not a complete player by any stretch of the imagination. Kyrie was basically the total package. He was a guy who did everything well.

I'd say it's not a surprise when "any rookie" does it. People where not surprised by the rookie seasons of Shaq, Magic, Bird, Jordan, Isiah Thomas or LBJ iirc (good attempt at subject changing to try and make a valid point look baseless)

Back to the point

Advanced stats for 11 (*8 reg season) games in the NCAA is not enough of a sample size to even claim those advanced stats were going to be an accurate representation of his NBA success, period.

An average season for a college player is 30-40 games depending on conference set up and tournaments.

Any data ran on a sample size 25 or smaller has a 20% or higher margin of error. (25 as a sample size leaves you with a 20% margin of error, simplified down, take stats course if you want this in more detail)

By using the advanced metrics for 11 games as your only basis for arguing that those same advanced stats proved KI would be elite you were in fact arguing stats that at the time they were published had margin of error 50% or higher based on the low sample size when attempting to use that sample size as a future prediction tool.

This is why it was the biggest question and concern for that years draft. It was mentioned in almost every single scouting report or conversation about the number one pick that the limited number of games made it hard to determine the true potential of KI which made him a risk.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/kyrie-irving

Weaknesses:

Durability is a legitimate concern after he missed all but 8 games of his freshman season (heading into the post season) …

The big question is whether this was a fluke (turftoe injury) or indicative of a bigger problem … Lack of experience at the college level is concerning considering how difficult it is to master the position at the next level … Could struggle with the transition to the NBA game with just 8 games of NCAA experience under his belt. Granted he looked advanced for a freshmen PG …

Has solid athleticism, but not elite … Not known for highlight reel dunks or a player who overwhelms opponents with his physicality … Needs to continue to work on his strength in order to improve his ability to finish and defensively …

Tendency to get out of control attacking the basket … Put up tremendous numbers in his first 8 games, however it’s questionable he would have sustained that for an entire season through conference play …

Appears to have the total package but missing such a huge portion of his freshman season makes him a risk. A team will have to roll the dice on limited college experience and exposure …

Also

I was not comparing McLemore and Irving as players.

But nice attempt to deflect the point I was making by taking a tone that makes it seem as if you're insulted/offended by something

The point I was making was:

The amount of games Mclemore played this past season makes it easier to have a better overall grasp of Mclemore as a player coming out of college than it was KI.

Before you go back to advanced metrics again remember I've already shown you why 11 games is not a large enough of a sample size.

 

[MVP_Eric_10]

Thought I'd share this inspiring story of the life of Ben McLemore and his rough upbringing.

[video=youtube;pnAdoeVIBu0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnAdoeVIBu0[/video]

 

[Jack Brickman]

The point I was making was:

The amount of games Mclemore played this past season makes it easier to have a better overall grasp of Mclemore as a player coming out of college than it was KI.

Before you go back to advanced metrics again remember I've already shown you why 11 games is not a large enough of a sample size.

That doesn't really help your argument, though, as McLemore's advanced stats aren't impressive.

And regardless of Kyrie's college sample size, clearly the metrics got that one right, margin of error be damned.

 

[EdMonix11]

Apparently he's struggled in workouts with Phoenix and Orlando; reportedly out of shape. Tough not to question his drive if he's unwilling to get into shape to showcase himself before the draft.....