I don't know if this was already brought up. Sorry if it's bullshit because I don't really understand about cap and stuff... but god damn I just had some sort of insight on this.
X factor regarding the TPE: It counts against the cap; but it doesn't count against the luxury tax.
We all know that Gilbert will already pay a historic amount due to luxury tax if the whole team is resigned and Haywood is simply waived.
But if you use Haywood's contract - on a trade or by a TPE which will be used on a sign and trade - you are talking about extra tens of millions going out of Gilbert's pockets, considering he's already paying a lot of extra money.
So it looks to me that Haywood's contract, via direct trade or TPE, probably won't be used to simply improve the team with another player, but as a contigency plan - a new player to replace another in case of an emergency, possibilities being:
- Before season starts: TT / JR / Delly doesn't resign (via direct trade or TPE - sign and trade);
- Midseason: player gets injured (via TPE)
- Next season: Mozgov demands a max and is let go (via TPE next year).
So what it means is that chances of trading Haywood were slow from the beginning. It may still happen only if one of those 3 guys won't sign and a replacement is needed.
If everybody resigns, TPE is acquired. But still for insurance reasons.
So even a future midseason trade via TPE has a low chance to happen, because it means lots of millions of dollars less for Gilbert when he's already handing a bunch out.
So my point is: maybe chances of using Haywood's contract to improve the team are slim, due to massive financial cost. His contract is more an insurance in case something goes seriously wrong (player not renewing/injury).
But for example, if JR goes apeshit and refuses to resign for 7M range, or wants a too long contract - they could simply let him go, get the TPE, get Martin from Minesotta.
Haywood's contract is important, but don't get your hopes too high that it will necessarily be used to simply improve the team if everybody is back. Don't know if Griffin guaranteed it would be used in this way.