Cavs/Bucks and Ilyasova

[The Human Q-Tip]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

With the new CBA we can front load his contract with a big spike in year three. Four years, 32 million, with years going 12 12 4 4. He gets 28 over the first three, while not killing our cap flexibility when Kyrie and Tristan are up. He gets his 8 million a year average, but gets the vast majority of it in the first two years. They could add a team/player option after year three based on how he takes to the idea. If he doesn't like it, give him the player option, giving him the ability to opt out and only take one year of the 4 mil salary. If he's down with the idea, make it a team option.

This is what Houston did with Asik only flip flopped to hurt the bulls, where we would be doing it use our cap space when we have it, and save it when we need it. Essentially they would only be taking a 2 year risk on the player, thus minimizing the financial burden and maximizing our long term cap flexibility.

That also would make him a very tradeable asset in the 3rd and 4th years if we decided to move him because of a need somewhere else, or because TT and Zeller develop, etc.

 

[KI4MVP]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

I wouldn't put a player option at the end of a front loaded contract.

 

[tsteele316]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

This should not be a consideration whatsoever, aside from the previously mentioned opportunities it may afford a team with cap space in a few years when these acquisitions become albatrosses with draft-pick sweeteners for willing takers.

And the premium (more like "creamium") you have to pay for FAs when you're a less desirable destination team is precisely the reason you don't use free agency for anything more than filling in cracks and buying low on talent that's buried under "issues" of whatever sort. Really, even big market destinations aren't doing it right if they're signing guys like this; their advantage is that they can actually be players in the bids for the rare superstar who puts his services for sale in the open market, and that's it. Even then, player collusion and nepotism make "bidding wars" unreliable, unless your own players are the ones orchestrating it.

Call me narrow-minded, but I don't want the Cavs attempting to acquire a single "major" piece through free agency. There are two other ways to acquire talent -- the draft and trades -- which offer less risk, no disadvantages or "premium" whatsoever based on destination appeal, more control, and, most importantly, more talent. Until some surefire superstar FA comes out and says, "I wanna take my talents to North Beach to play with Kyrie," I say fuck it; again, save the flexibility for the great move, not the good ones.

and again, the assumption that the cavs will be able to obtain the piece they need via the draft or trade is simply foolhardy. cleveland is going to be picking in the back half of the top 10 next year, despite any efforts to the contrary. there are just too many bad teams. then, to assume the perfect trade scenario will just fall in your lap for varejao is asking to be let down.

if the cavs think they can add a legit piece to their core at a price that isn't totally unreasonable, there is no reason why they shouldn't.

 

["Boobie" Gibson]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

Thanks Avon for the advanced stats. Although I don't totally understand them, I have a fairly good idea of what they are talking about and that is reassuring to see.

I'm all for it, especially with the injury history of Anderson Varejao. Another big WILL be needed. If Zeller progresses nicely this season making AV expendable, us fans will be very happy we decided to sign Ersan. Him, Zeller, and Thompson all fit together perfectly IMO.

This is a move in which I hope the Cavaliers brass is seriously considering.

 

[narbar32]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

and again, the assumption that the cavs will be able to obtain the piece they need via the draft or trade is simply foolhardy. cleveland is going to be picking in the back half of the top 10 next year, despite any efforts to the contrary. there are just too many bad teams. then, to assume the perfect trade scenario will just fall in your lap for varejao is asking to be let down.

if the cavs think they can add a legit piece to their core at a price that isn't totally unreasonable, there is no reason why they shouldn't.

I guess we just disagree then, as I think that the only way we get the piece we need is through the draft or trades. We need another star, or All-NBA level player, or All-Star, or stud, or whatever you want to call it.

How often does a young player get paid more for potential than for current production, then reach that potential and become a star? Seems to me that it far more frequently works out that said young player becomes a bad contract to shed.

How frequently do proven stars hit the market in general, and then how likely is it that a proven star, clearly worth the max and thus looking at multiple max offers, will choose Cleveland over his other options? And how reliable is that method in trying to build your team?

Hopefully, the bulk of the draft-work has been done. 3 of the top 4 draft picks in the past 2 years should yield some major talent. I believe we have one superstar now, which pretty much separates the "haves" from the "have-nots." I have my doubts that I'd rather not get into (Hi and bye, Thomas Robinson), but the hope is that this past draft has yielded us a premier, elite-level scorer to go along with our superstar PG. I'm willing to go with that hope. A bonus would be for one of the two bigs we got to also become something more than simply a role-player, and we simply can't answer that question yet, either. If we whiffed on all of these picks aside from Kyrie, we're fairly effed for a while, regardless of whether we pick up some nice FAs or not.

And I'm actually one of the few who believes we'll be fairly good next year regardless of FA acquisitions now. I actually thought we'd be better last season than we were. I did then and continue to base this on Byron Scott's history, particularly when he gets his badass PG. So I'm not counting on getting Shabazz or [insert premature superstar name here] in the top 3 next year just due to sucking. However, I do believe that the ability to absorb tons of salary to gain a pick or promising young prospect on a reasonable salary is more valuable than bidding on whoever's available in any particular free agency period and building said free agent up to be the missing piece simply due to the aforementioned availability.

Our willingness and ability to take on salary is what got us our current [possible] superstar; it wasn't through sucking for better draft position nor was it through free agency. That was a mega-shit-ton of luck, so I'm not saying that's simply the only way to go. But some luck is needed, along with opportunity and the ability to recognize and take advantage of the right opportunities. To me, the best opportunities will be in trading and manipulating the draft, along with the prerequisite ability to spot talent. If Grant thinks that a FA just happens to be the perfect fit and the availability is just good fortune, so be it -- I'll just have to trust he's right. I guess I just have a hard time believing it'll be that easy and would rather Grant hold his water until better opportunities are given time to show themselves.

 

[The Process God]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

I guess we just disagree then, as I think that the only way we get the piece we need is through the draft or trades. We need another star, or All-NBA level player, or All-Star, or stud, or whatever you want to call it.

How often does a young player get paid more for potential than for current production, then reach that potential and become a star? Seems to me that it far more frequently works out that said young player becomes a bad contract to shed.

How frequently do proven stars hit the market in general, and then how likely is it that a proven star, clearly worth the max and thus looking at multiple max offers, will choose Cleveland over his other options? And how reliable is that method in trying to build your team?

Hopefully, the bulk of the draft-work has been done. 3 of the top 4 draft picks in the past 2 years should yield some major talent. I believe we have one superstar now, which pretty much separates the "haves" from the "have-nots." I have my doubts that I'd rather not get into (Hi and bye, Thomas Robinson), but the hope is that this past draft has yielded us a premier, elite-level scorer to go along with our superstar PG. I'm willing to go with that hope. A bonus would be for one of the two bigs we got to also become something more than simply a role-player, and we simply can't answer that question yet, either. If we whiffed on all of these picks aside from Kyrie, we're fairly effed for a while, regardless of whether we pick up some nice FAs or not.

And I'm actually one of the few who believes we'll be fairly good next year regardless of FA acquisitions now. I actually thought we'd be better last season than we were. I did then and continue to base this on Byron Scott's history, particularly when he gets his badass PG. So I'm not counting on getting Shabazz or [insert premature superstar name here] in the top 3 next year just due to sucking. However, I do believe that the ability to absorb tons of salary to gain a pick or promising young prospect on a reasonable salary is more valuable than bidding on whoever's available in any particular free agency period and building said free agent up to be the missing piece simply due to the aforementioned availability.

Our willingness and ability to take on salary is what got us our current [possible] superstar; it wasn't through sucking for better draft position nor was it through free agency. That was a mega-shit-ton of luck, so I'm not saying that's simply the only way to go. But some luck is needed, along with opportunity and the ability to recognize and take advantage of the right opportunities. To me, the best opportunities will be in trading and manipulating the draft, along with the prerequisite ability to spot talent. If Grant thinks that a FA just happens to be the perfect fit and the availability is just good fortune, so be it -- I'll just have to trust he's right. I guess I just have a hard time believing it'll be that easy and would rather Grant hold his water until better opportunities are given time to show themselves.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we can still absorb salary even if we do use our cap space to sign free agents up to the limit of our cap space. If we can get a big-time free agent to come here, and they want to be here, then that's great because, as long as Dan Gilbert's willing to pay the money for possible luxury tax while we take on salary for picks, we can still go that route as well. It's the best of both worlds although it is the most expensive as well. We are just lucky to have an owner who is willing to spend.

 

[Homestar]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

I think the question is this - next summer, who is our competition in terms of teams that will have enough cap space to sign 2 max players? Atlanta seems like one.

 

[narbar32]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we can still absorb salary even if we do use our cap space to sign free agents up to the limit of our cap space. If we can get a big-time free agent to come here, and they want to be here, then that's great because, as long as Dan Gilbert's willing to pay the money for possible luxury tax while we take on salary for picks, we can still go that route as well. It's the best of both worlds although it is the most expensive as well. We are just lucky to have an owner who is willing to spend.

Perhaps, but Gilbert was paying the luxury tax when it was a flat dollar-for-dollar tax for the amount over the tax line. I believe the new CBA luxury tax rules will limit even the big spenders from going too far over the line, especially for any significant length of time.

Tax levels from 2013–14
Amount over tax threshold Standard tax Repeat offender tax
$5 million or less $1.50 $2.50
$5 million to $10 million $1.75 $2.75
$10 million to $15 million $2.50 $3.50
$15 million to $25 million $3.25 $4.25

As you can see, the luxury tax penalties are significantly steeper, especially the more you go over. Any contract signed today for 3 years or longer will have an impact on a team when the new tax rules go into effect. Given that we'll also be looking at resigning our own picks fairly soon afterwards, and hopefully also fielding a highly competitive team, I don't like the idea of Grant suddenly having to perform miracles to keep the core of the team together due to price prohibitive tax penalties, even for Gilbert, looming.

Edit: My table sucks. And I suck at fixing it.

Double Edit: And I forgot to add that being under the cap also allows us to take on salary without matching it, which is even more attractive to another team than expiring contracts. Not sure how the salary floor comes into play, though.

 

[tsteele316]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

I guess we just disagree then, as I think that the only way we get the piece we need is through the draft or trades. We need another star, or All-NBA level player, or All-Star, or stud, or whatever you want to call it.

How often does a young player get paid more for potential than for current production, then reach that potential and become a star? Seems to me that it far more frequently works out that said young player becomes a bad contract to shed.

How frequently do proven stars hit the market in general, and then how likely is it that a proven star, clearly worth the max and thus looking at multiple max offers, will choose Cleveland over his other options? And how reliable is that method in trying to build your team?

Hopefully, the bulk of the draft-work has been done. 3 of the top 4 draft picks in the past 2 years should yield some major talent. I believe we have one superstar now, which pretty much separates the "haves" from the "have-nots." I have my doubts that I'd rather not get into (Hi and bye, Thomas Robinson), but the hope is that this past draft has yielded us a premier, elite-level scorer to go along with our superstar PG. I'm willing to go with that hope. A bonus would be for one of the two bigs we got to also become something more than simply a role-player, and we simply can't answer that question yet, either. If we whiffed on all of these picks aside from Kyrie, we're fairly effed for a while, regardless of whether we pick up some nice FAs or not.

And I'm actually one of the few who believes we'll be fairly good next year regardless of FA acquisitions now. I actually thought we'd be better last season than we were. I did then and continue to base this on Byron Scott's history, particularly when he gets his badass PG. So I'm not counting on getting Shabazz or [insert premature superstar name here] in the top 3 next year just due to sucking. However, I do believe that the ability to absorb tons of salary to gain a pick or promising young prospect on a reasonable salary is more valuable than bidding on whoever's available in any particular free agency period and building said free agent up to be the missing piece simply due to the aforementioned availability.

Our willingness and ability to take on salary is what got us our current [possible] superstar; it wasn't through sucking for better draft position nor was it through free agency. That was a mega-shit-ton of luck, so I'm not saying that's simply the only way to go. But some luck is needed, along with opportunity and the ability to recognize and take advantage of the right opportunities. To me, the best opportunities will be in trading and manipulating the draft, along with the prerequisite ability to spot talent. If Grant thinks that a FA just happens to be the perfect fit and the availability is just good fortune, so be it -- I'll just have to trust he's right. I guess I just have a hard time believing it'll be that easy and would rather Grant hold his water until better opportunities are given time to show themselves.

and people with this mindset will be the first ones bitching that Grant "sat on his hands" during free agency when the cavs pick 8th next year and trade AV for a series of picks in the mid-teens, and those players don't turn out to be as good as what cleveland could have gotten on the FA market but opted to bypass.

people act like trade opportunities and perfect draft picks should just fall into cleveland's lap because the cavs hit the lottery with that clippers pick, when in reality, the cavs were one ping pong ball away from being a total shit show for the foreseeable future. so, i simply can't fathom the logic behind the notion that it can't "be that easy" for cleveland to add a good core piece via FA, but instead it will be easier to have the perfect trade or perfect draft pick fall into cleveland's lap picking in the back half of the top 10.

 

[tn819]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

Perhaps, but Gilbert was paying the luxury tax when it was a flat dollar-for-dollar tax for the amount over the tax line. I believe the new CBA luxury tax rules will limit even the big spenders from going too far over the line, especially for any significant length of time.

Tax levels from 2013–14
Amount over tax threshold Standard tax Repeat offender tax
$5 million or less $1.50 $2.50
$5 million to $10 million $1.75 $2.75
$10 million to $15 million $2.50 $3.50
$15 million to $25 million $3.25 $4.25

As you can see, the luxury tax penalties are significantly steeper, especially the more you go over. Any contract signed today for 3 years or longer will have an impact on a team when the new tax rules go into effect. Given that we'll also be looking at resigning our own picks fairly soon afterwards, and hopefully also fielding a highly competitive team, I don't like the idea of Grant suddenly having to perform miracles to keep the core of the team together due to price prohibitive tax penalties, even for Gilbert, looming.

Edit: My table sucks. And I suck at fixing it.

Double Edit: And I forgot to add that being under the cap also allows us to take on salary without matching it, which is even more attractive to another team than expiring contracts. Not sure how the salary floor comes into play, though.

Right, I think people are slowly starting to realize that the luxury tax situation will change the game in a major way. There is a much harder cap than before in the NBA. Many of us are under the assumption that these penalties won't take a bite out of budgets. I think they will. Teams will have to spend very judiciously. It is more important for the Cavs to go for only good players at reasonable prices because one bad deal can knock out your flexibility under the new set of rules. Some teams, notably New Jersey, appear to have missed this memo.

 

[narbar32]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

and people with this mindset will be the first ones bitching that Grant "sat on his hands" during free agency when the cavs pick 8th next year and trade AV for a series of picks in the mid-teens, and those players don't turn out to be as good as what cleveland could have gotten on the FA market but opted to bypass.

people act like trade opportunities and perfect draft picks should just fall into cleveland's lap because the cavs hit the lottery with that clippers pick, when in reality, the cavs were one ping pong ball away from being a total shit show for the foreseeable future. so, i simply can't fathom the logic behind the notion that it can't "be that easy" for cleveland to add a good core piece via FA, but instead it will be easier to have the perfect trade or perfect draft pick fall into cleveland's lap picking in the back half of the top 10.

If you'd like to address my points, go ahead, but I'm not people. And I won't be bitching if that happens. I of course don't think things will work out that way, either, though, which forms the basis of my opinions.

If I'm the people of which you speak, I'll let you know that I don't think trade opportunities and perfect draft picks will fall into Cleveland's lap, nor did I bring up the Clippers pick as some sort of predictor of future luck; it was only an example of opportunity, action, and luck coming together perfectly. Opportunity and luck are out of the FO's control, but ability to take action is not.

Cleveland has never won an NBA championship. It goes without saying (which makes me dumb for saying it) that it's a hard thing to accomplish. The Cavs don't need to make good decisions in order to do it; they need to make absolutely excellent decisions with fortune on their side.

I find it highly unlikely that either Ilyasova or Batum end up the piece that puts this team over the top. I find it hard to believe that either of them even do anything at such a high level that it can't be replicated through some cheaper means. What would make us a contender is another elite level, All-NBA level talent. I want the Cavs to retain ABSOLUTE flexibility until they find that. Without that, nothing else matters. It's the only goal I care about until it's attained. It's not easy and it may never happen, but if/when it does, I'll be right with you hoping Grant "stops sitting on his hands" or "pulls the trigger" to sign Ilyasova or Batum or whatever their names will end up being when we need to fill out the rest of the roster with able-bodied, expendable role-players.

 

[Tornicade]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

Perhaps, but Gilbert was paying the luxury tax when it was a flat dollar-for-dollar tax for the amount over the tax line. I believe the new CBA luxury tax rules will limit even the big spenders from going too far over the line, especially for any significant length of time.

Tax levels from 2013–14
Amount over tax threshold Standard tax Repeat offender tax
$5 million or less $1.50 $2.50
$5 million to $10 million $1.75 $2.75
$10 million to $15 million $2.50 $3.50
$15 million to $25 million $3.25 $4.25

As you can see, the luxury tax penalties are significantly steeper, especially the more you go over. Any contract signed today for 3 years or longer will have an impact on a team when the new tax rules go into effect. Given that we'll also be looking at resigning our own picks fairly soon afterwards, and hopefully also fielding a highly competitive team, I don't like the idea of Grant suddenly having to perform miracles to keep the core of the team together due to price prohibitive tax penalties, even for Gilbert, looming.

Edit: My table sucks. And I suck at fixing it.

Double Edit: And I forgot to add that being under the cap also allows us to take on salary without matching it, which is even more attractive to another team than expiring contracts. Not sure how the salary floor comes into play, though.

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.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}
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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Tax levels from 2013–14</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr> <tr><td>Amount over tax threshold</td><td>Standard Tax</td><td>Repeat Offender</td></tr> <tr><td>$5 million or less</td><td>$1.50</td><td>$2.50</td></tr> <tr><td>$5 million to $10 million </td><td>$1.75</td><td>$2.75</td></tr> <tr><td>$10 million to $15 million</td><td>$2.50</td><td>$3.50</td></tr> <tr><td>$15 million to $25 million</td><td>$3.25</td><td>$4.25</td></tr></table>

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

I think the question is this - next summer, who is our competition in terms of teams that will have enough cap space to sign 2 max players? Atlanta seems like one.

The better question is which 2 max salary unrestricted free agents would choose to sign with Cleveland? Having cap space and getting top free agents to elect to sign with you are two different things.

 

[CornerThree]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

With the new CBA we can front load his contract with a big spike in year three. Four years, 32 million, with years going 12 12 4 4. He gets 28 over the first three, while not killing our cap flexibility when Kyrie and Tristan are up. He gets his 8 million a year average, but gets the vast majority of it in the first two years. They could add a team/player option after year three based on how he takes to the idea. If he doesn't like it, give him the player option, giving him the ability to opt out and only take one year of the 4 mil salary. If he's down with the idea, make it a team option.

This is what Houston did with Asik only flip flopped to hurt the bulls, where we would be doing it use our cap space when we have it, and save it when we need it. Essentially they would only be taking a 2 year risk on the player, thus minimizing the financial burden and maximizing our long term cap flexibility.

I question the legality of this theory in regards to the rules of the cap. He's an unrestricted FA. The maximum amount that his salary can decrease year to year is only 4.5%. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q54 Asik was offered that weirdly structured deal because he was a restricted FA and the Gilbert Arenas provision is in play.

For example you could structure a 4 year/40.64m deal like 11m/10.44m/9.88m/9.32m

Your other scenerio is impossible.

 

[Sw33tL0u]

Re: Ilyasova to visit Cavs this week

Well....Jeff Green's new deal is said to be in the "neighborhood" of 4 years and $40 million.

If that is true, Ilyasova's price will likely go up.

My issue is IF the Cavs do sign Ilyasova without ever making a serious push at Batum for only a LITTLE (in NBA terms) more money...how does that make sense?

Batum at 4 years and $45 million at age 23 doesn't make sense for the Cavs this offseason, but Ilyasova at 4 years and $40 million at age 25(maybe...) does?

Dude, stop. Tristan did not suck by any stretch of the imagination. You're clearly trolling at this point.

So disagreeing with something and backing it up with hard FACTS is now "trolling"??

Well except for the fact that Ersan is a much better player.

I'm not sure you're picture backs up your argument as much as you think it does.

If anything it shows some similiarities between Charlie V and Ersan.

What would be interesting is if you also put their career stats side by side to see if Charlie V also had a "breakout" season right before he was about to become a free agent.