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Cavs vs. Warriors -- 2017 NBA Finals

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Who wins?

  • Cavs in 4

    Votes: 23 8.4%

  • Cavs in 5

    Votes: 20 7.3%

  • Cavs in 6

    Votes: 146 53.1%

  • Cavs in 7

    Votes: 55 20.0%

  • Warriors in 7

    Votes: 2 0.7%

  • Warriors in 6

    Votes: 10 3.6%

  • Warriors in 5

    Votes: 7 2.5%

  • Warriors in 4

    Votes: 12 4.4%
  • Total voters
    275
  • Poll closed .
BigJ said:
I too feel like us winning in 6 is whats likely gonna happen. Right now we are even better on the Road than at home..

The way i see it playing out:

Game 1: We win something like 115-108.. GSW gets hot but too late
Game 2: GSW wins while getting hot - 112-101
Game 3: We blow them out because Korver,Deron and co torch them - 130-109
Game 4: GSW wins like last year mostly due to schedule - 113-107
Game 5: We win in Oracle rather convincingly. - 119 - 103
Game 6: We close them out at home - 105 - 98
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I expect a blowout from gsw for game 4.
 
BannerYearz said:
As bad as Game 2 ended up being, there were arguably signs early in that game that the Cavs would end up being the better team across the series, just as in Game 4.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1568951&start=55 http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1471360

HotRocks34 has some good neutral analysis about how the comeback from 3-1 was not some sort of fluke as Dubs/MJ fanatics argue but more of the way the series was supposed to go in the first place.
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I am HotRocks34.

The Cavs were the better team last year and the series permanently shifted after Game 2. As I said over at RealGM, the key stats were around FBP/PIP/Pace. The Cavs absolutely destroyed the Warriors in FBP in the series.

Anyone who believes the Warriors were the better team last year, in The Finals, doesn't know those stats. Which is exactly what I told "JordansBulls" at RealGM.

The Cavs turnaround in the 2016 Finals started long before Bogut got hurt or Draymond got suspended.

The difficulty for us this year, among other things, is that Durant completely alters that Pace/FBP dynamic for us. He helps Golden State a huge amount in those respects.
 
BigJ said:
You can see even in Games 2 and that there are stretche where you can easilly see that in the long run the Cavs are getting at every weakness GSW has. Then by Game 3 they had them figured out. Then Game 4 was lost because a mix of the only 1 Day Rest Game and admittetly some plain dumb errors by us
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Yep.

I also think that in Game 4 was when the Warriors started to run the Klay/Steph PNR's that threw us off for that game. We adjusted to that look by the next game, however.

Of the last 5 games played in the series, Game 4 was the "aberration" game. And I agree that this was likely because of there only being one day of rest/prep before it as compared with every other game in the series having two days between games.
 
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I am looking at my full data set right now from the 2016 Finals. One of the things that immediately jumps out is how the Warriors' PIP dramatically decreased after Game 2. I'm not sure if that's because our rim protection picked up or because the Warriors stopped attacking the rim, but it is a huge shift. Here are the stats, for the Warriors.

2016 FINALS -- WARRIORS PIP
---------------------------------

Game 1 -- 54 (win)
Game 2 -- 50 (win)
Game 3 -- 32 (loss)
Game 4 -- 20 (win)
Game 5 -- 30 (loss)
Game 6 -- 30 (loss)
Game 7 -- 28 (loss)


Our worst PIP game of the 2016 Finals was 40, in Game 2.



So, in summary, this is how and why we won the 2016 Finals:
- Crushed Warriors in FBP
- Crushed Warriors in PIP
- Beat Warriors by playing at a higher pace (which would seem unlikely coming into the series)
 
One other thing that is good to see for us is that it does appear as though our defense is good enough to win a title this year. That has been probably the biggest question mark throughout the season.

We currently have the third-best defense in the playoffs this season.

Our DRTG is +2.4 over what it was last year. That's not great, and it would be nice if our defense were stronger, but because of our improved offense over last year's playoffs our defense seems manageable. The improvement in our offense outweighs the decline in our defense.

Like last year, if we win the title we will win it on the strength of our offense. That is how the team is built, and that is what we have been locked onto doing since Bogut went down and Sanders washed out.
 
godfather said:
Has there ever been a more unlikable team? It's not even because they're in our way.

Fuck, we only hated the Heat because LeBron left. I've always liked Wade as a player personally. I never had an opinion of Bosh.

I don't really think Curry is a bad guy, even though I'm no fan per se. If he's annoying or unlikable; it's more how much the media started fawning over him (too much). But he himself doesn't really do much that really annoys or pisses you off.

But Durant and Green are the most unlikable pieces of shit you can imagine.

One is a coward and non-stop excuse maker. Completely arrogant too. And the other is very dirty, very arrogant, and just obnoxious.

My blood is boiling, I hate this team so fucking much. We have to beat them.
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Their owner is a cunt socket as well. And David West is a ring chasing chest thumping asshole too. Klay says stupid shit as well.

Fuck cury forever for saying "No disrespect, but I want to be the first one to bring Akron a championship."

Also that comment about hoping our visiting locker room still reeked of champagne. Also his stupid on court shenanigans.

Pretty much fuck most of those guys.
 
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LeShaq said:
One other thing that is good to see for us is that it does appear as though our defense is good enough to win a title this year. That has been probably the biggest question mark throughout the season.

We currently have the third-best defense in the playoffs this season.

Our DRTG is +2.4 over what it was last year. That's not great, and it would be nice if our defense were stronger, but because of our improved offense over last year's playoffs our defense seems manageable. The improvement in our offense outweighs the decline in our defense.

Like last year, if we win the title we will win it on the strength of our offense. That is how the team is built, and that is what we have been locked onto doing since Bogut went down and Sanders washed out.
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It is a bit weird.. we have the 3rd best Defense in the Playoffs yet your DRTG is worse than last year.. I dont really know what to draw from this.. By our own our defensive is Mediocre.. in comparison to the Field it is elite.. Has the Leagues Defense by a whole fallen of this much that a 108 DRTG can be good?

Agreed on the Point that our Offense will be what will bring us the title if we win. I said all year: Our defense needs to be just enough to keep GSW from scoring 120 on us every Game. If it is.. we can win. We have Arguably the GOAT Offense and our defense is good enough compared to the Playoff field.
 
BigJ said:
It is a bit weird.. we have the 3rd best Defense in the Playoffs yet your DRTG is worse than last year.. I dont really know what to draw from this.. By our own our defensive is Mediocre.. in comparison to the Field it is elite.. Has the Leagues Defense by a whole fallen of this much that a 108 DRTG can be good?

Agreed on the Point that our Offense will be what will bring us the title if we win. I said all year: Our defense needs to be just enough to keep GSW from scoring 120 on us every Game. If it is.. we can win. We have Arguably the GOAT Offense and our defense is good enough compared to the Playoff field.
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It's just that the offenses are so much more potent now due to maximizing efficiency via the three pointer and through avoiding contested midrange shots. There are some games in which teams defend well for the most part but then the opposition hits a flurry of threes, some of them contested. It's just plain harder for defenses to shut down an offense for 48 minutes. Take a look at how absurdly out of place Lamarcus Aldridge's ugly 19 foot turnarounds looked. EVERY time he shot them, I thought, "How the hell does Pop allow him to do this?" If teams still shot those kinds of shots, defenses could still lock down just as before.

Our defense this playoffs is a bit better then what the DRting indicates because Boston got A) incredibly lucky in game 3 by making bank threes and Smart making 7 threes which he might not ever do again in any game the rest of his career and B) The end of game 4 in which Boston made like 5 garbage time threes.

It is exponentially more difficult to shut teams down in today's game. The Warriors' playoffs defense is nearing grestest of all time level when compared to the field's, but then again, things would be a little different had Kawhi not gotten hurt.

The Cavs are currently running the playoffs all time greatest offense going by pure ORTG and second greatest offense if judging by how much better it is than average (2005 Suns is the greatest ever judged by that). We'll see if the Warriors can shut this offense down or not.
 
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People say offenses like these are only possible due to the less physical league, just how physical was the league back in the day actually? Excusing flagrant fouls, what was the physicality typically like? And even then, what was the frequency of the really hard fouls?
 
Steph adding to his Akron, locker room champagne narrative. I should be more adult about it but he reeeeally gets under my skin and I want him to suffer a mind numbing, torturous defeat... LINK
 
TyGuy said:
Their owner is a cunt socket as well. And David West is a ring chasing chest thumping asshole too. Klay says stupid shit as well.

Fuck cury forever for saying "No disrespect, but I want to be the first one to bring Akron a championship."

Also that comment about hoping our visiting locker room still reeked of champagne. Also his stupid on court shenanigans.

Pretty much fuck most of those guys.
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You can add Zaza 'I'm a scrub but act hard because I play for the Warriors for peanuts' Pachulia.
 
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Ugh i really need to stop reading and watching Sports Media at the moment.. As much as i love the underdog Role... it is annoying that almost everybody is picking GSW.. and i dont want guys like Screamin A Smith or Barkley to pick us.. neither are that Sound Basketball Minds.. I never thought Colin Fuckin Cowherd would be on our side..

Is anyone else a bit conflicted? Part of me wants everybody to pick GSW because all of them eating crow when we win will be even nicer... but its just so damn weird that as the defending Champs with the GOAT playing his best Basketball most people wont give us a Chance..

Is the Media really that dumb? Do they only look as far as the Casual Fan? Dont they look into that when you take injuries into Account that we dont played worse Teams than GSW? .. Dont they even look into that both Teams have an Identical Net Rating? .. Dont they look into our Defense not still beeing horrible?
I mean those are Sports Journalists.. its their Job to dig up as much Material as they can.. are they all just on the GSW Bandwagon?
 
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