John Hollinger's Cavaliers playoff post mortem

[Kouki]

So I did some analysis of wins and wins vs. top 10 teams.

One of the comments made by Koby was something like "Bad teams don't accidentally win 51 games"



Black line is 1:1 (teams that win just as much against top 10 teams as they do against everyone)

Of course you would expect teams to do worse against top 10 teams, so everything is below the 1:1 line, except for GSW.

The blue dotted line is the curve fit for everybody. Basically if you are above that line, you are better than league average against top 10 teams compared to against all teams, if that makes sense. Above line = overperform vs. top teams, below line = underperform vs. top teams.

Guess which dot corresponds to the Cavs...hint, it is the red one. This means that despite our excellent overall record, we performed piss poor against top 10 teams.

But wait it gets better.

If you calculate the difference between the curve fit line and the data point, you get the residual.

The Cavs had, by far, the largest negative residual amongst the top 16 teams. And the largest residual in the league. Basically the exact opposite residual of GSW.

Translating that residual to an 82 game season to put it into perspective and sorted by winning percentage vs top 10 teams -




So basically our record was a farce, and confirming suspicions that some have said, we beat up on mediocre teams but performed poorly vs. good teams.

 

[gambler]

It's nice to read a measured analysis that doesn't mirror a major depressive spiral. Since this thread is supposed to stem from Hollinger's equally measured article, this is a fair criticism without some sort of tantrum.

The Cavs press conference to announce the Rubio free agency signing certainly hinted that the team isn't going to mortgage the future and go all in. They spoke of how Rubio will be working his way back this season in hopes for better returns later in the contract. Similar language was used when they essentially sat out a seller's market at the deadline and signed Danny Green.

The Mitchell trade is indeed an above market offer. Some fans will point to the lack of depth the trade caused, however I don't see how an informed fan can blame Altman for winning a bidding war in a seller's market. The other option is paying above market rate for a lesser player, like the Knicks chose to do with Hart.

It's hard to identify where to focus your frustration when it's the market not a person who adjusts value of a trade, but here we are. As the Cavs figure out how to build up the depth around their core, I don't lose sight of how many basketball fans who aren't Cavs supporters like our future.

the rubio signing was before the mitchell trade so what altman said then does not necessarily apply to what he thought later after trading for donovan.

and im just confused what ¨äll-in¨ is actually defined as. because i agree with chris fedor who obvioulsy thought otherwise after the trade for mitchell

Cleveland Cavaliers go all in, rocket into contention with Donovan Mitchell trade: Chris Fedor

Most importantly, the Cavs made the acquisition without dealing any of their three foundational building blocks -- Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, something that would have been a non-starter in trade discussions.

www.cleveland.com

as for ¨winning the bidding war¨.....at the end of the day the knicks wisely left said war and we can all safely say who won that war between koby altman and leon rose because the knicks are the ones that still have a chance at the ecf all the while still retaining their picks.

with altman and his team sitting at home.

and with no picks

 

[Randolphkeys]

If not then why not? Once we made the Mitchell trade then the clock was ticking and it became foolish to hold off any winning moves you could make. The Mitchell trade was itself a “win now” move and commitment , you can’t do that sort of stuff halfway.

The answer appears in Altman's end of season presser:

Koby Altman Divulges Future Of Roster Amid Devastating NBA Playoff Loss To Knicks

Cleveland Cavaliers President of Basketball Operations spoke on the future of the roster after the Cavs playoff loss to the New York Knicks.

cavsnation.com

Cleveland managed to stay just below the luxury tax as it assembled its roster during the 2022-23 season. It just above $1 million in luxury tax space despite having larger contracts from Allen, guard Caris LeVert and guard Donovan Mitchell.

Koby Altman said Cleveland wasn’t afraid to enter the luxury tax threshold on Friday.
“We’re not scared to go into the tax,” said Altman, via ESPN Cavs reporter Danny Cunningham.


 No owner is unaffected by the luxury tax threshold. Do you think Joe Lacob of the Warriors wanted to go from five straight finals appearances to a two year reset of the roster? Of course not, but the repeater tax is a guardrail against a wealthy owner in constant win now mode. Altman and the financial side of the front office thread the needle by staying under one more year at the cost of looking like a contender past the first six players in the rotation.

They say here the financial window to "win now" opens this off-season. Let's see the opening moves, once the Cavs can start making them.

Also, the Lakers trade deadline was phenomenally successful, it seems like an example to follow not something to avoid?

For the Lakers and their window, it was a success. LeBron James is in professional season 19 and Anthony Davis is in season 10. They only have seven players under contract for next season, and they will have a tough time finding much leverage negotiating for many of their playoff push rentals. The Cavs did not have the same window, that's why we as fans found ways to rationalize a bench with Neto, Lopez and Diakite. Our future above the luxury tax hadn't begun, the Lakers window is rapidly closing.

 

[Akron83]

Mobley can't physically handle center regularly. Something this thread ignores. The real problem is, Mitchland didn't play well enough consistently(which was not all their fault) and not enough shooting in JB's half court system. Mobley by next spring, should be more feared to guard, even if he isn't a good 3 point shooter. Just guarding him for his regular game would help spacing for Mitchland quite a bit. We didn't even have that. They didn't respect him.

As Altman pretty much said at the presser..............better shooting wing, better offensive Mobley. That solves the problem with that. The other stuff like rebounding is partly JB's system of over helping.

If Mobley really can't play the 5, and he is only suitable for the 4, we should look to move him immediately while his trade value is super high. Mobley paired with a traditional center will always be a liability on offense. He will never be a great 3-point shooter, he struggles to put the ball on the court, and opposing teams will just put a wing on him and help off of him every chance they get.

With that being said, there is no part of me that thinks Mobley can't play the 5 as soon as next year. We need to move Allen for some wings that space things up. I want to see Mobley at the 5 with shooting around him. Give Garland/Mitchell the type of space they deserve and watch how devastating this offense can be.

1. Use the MLE to sign the best SF you can find
2. Trade Allen for some wings--1 of which must be in his mid-20's.
3. Look to package Cedi/Rubio for an overpriced SG/SF that can shoot from 3 that another team would like to move off of. Maybe Duncan Robinson?

 

[foucault87]

If Mobley really can't play the 5, and he is only suitable for the 4, we should look to move him immediately while his trade value is super high. Mobley paired with a traditional center will always be a liability on offense. He will never be a great 3-point shooter, he struggles to put the ball on the court, and opposing teams will just put a wing on him and help off of him every chance they get.

With that being said, there is no part of me that thinks Mobley can't play the 5 as soon as next year. We need to move Allen for some wings that space things up. I want to see Mobley at the 5 with shooting around him. Give Garland/Mitchell the type of space they deserve and watch how devastating this offense can be.

1. Use the MLE to sign the best SF you can find
2. Trade Allen for some wings--1 of which must be in his mid-20's.
3. Look to package Cedi/Rubio for an overpriced SG/SF that can shoot from 3 that another team would like to move off of. Maybe Duncan Robinson?

Hes just finished his second year. This level of impatience is ridiculous

 

[Jscc]

Hes just finished his second year. This level of impatience is ridiculous

It's like saying hey, let's dig the foundation out from under this house and expect it to continue standing. If you trade Mobley then you blow this entire thing up, everyone goes, and you start over. Don't half-ass it.

He is the reason we re-signed JA to play C until he can handle big man duties, got to the play-in, re-signed DG to a max extension immediately, and went out and got Mitchell. These are all dumb moves if you're not building around him. I don't think we make the playoffs or play-in this season without Mitchell, so getting him for playoff experience is part of it.

 

[Akron83]

Hes just finished his second year. This level of impatience is ridiculous

I don't want Mobley playing the 4 for a variety of reasons though. I want Mobley at the 5 with 4 shooters on the court. Imagine Mobley having the space that Bam has when he goes against Boston because Boston is too scared to leave the other 4 Miami shooters open. Imagine DG and Mitchell operating with all of the space that Butler operates with.

Allen and Mobley on the court at the same time make things much, much easier for defenses in the playoffs. You can just help off on both of those guys and swarm our guards. That will never change. Mobley will improve on offense, but pairing him with a traditional 5 when Mobley can play the 5 himself will always limit the team offense.

 

[foucault87]

I don't want Mobley playing the 4 for a variety of reasons though. I want Mobley at the 5 with 4 shooters on the court. Imagine Mobley having the space that Bam has when he goes against Boston because Boston is too scared to leave the other 4 Miami shooters open. Imagine DG and Mitchell operating with all of the space that Butler operates with.

Allen and Mobley on the court at the same time make things much, much easier for defenses in the playoffs. You can just help off on both of those guys and swarm our guards. That will never change. Mobley will improve on offense, but pairing him with a traditional 5 when Mobley can play the 5 himself will always limit the team offense.

And your solution is to trade Mobley this summer?

 

[Akron83]

And your solution is to trade Mobley this summer?

No, I keep Mobley for sure. I would look to trade Allen for a versatile wing in his mid 20's. I would then target 2 wings and 1 big between our MLE, BAE, and the contracts of Rubio and Cedi. You fill out your roster from there.

 

[foucault87]

No, I keep Mobley for sure. I would look to trade Allen for a versatile wing in his mid 20's. I would then target 2 wings and 1 big between our MLE, BAE, and the contracts of Rubio and Cedi. You fill out your roster from there.

Who is actually gettable for Allen? I dont think anyone is available worth the strict talent downgrade

 

[HammerGold]

I don't see any all star wing out there for Allen. It's not that simple.

 

[Ohioplayer00]

Our best bet is to see if Koby can clear some cap space via trades and look at players like Obrie, Kuzma, Middleton etc

 

[Ohioplayer00]

I am sure Koby took 0 calls during the trade deadline. That is why we didn't make any moves. He probably put his phone on silent for the whole week and decided we don't need to make any improvements. Clearly that is what happened.

If you can believe Hoopshype:

CAVALIERS TRIED TO TRADE FOR ROYCE O’NEALE
Most will point to a position. I get it. It’s small forward. That’s the weak point since LeBron James left in the summer of 2018. It’s the spot Cleveland has worked tirelessly to fill, making innumerable trade calls (they came close in February and were far down the road on a deal for Brooklyn’s Royce O’Neale before it opted not to trade him)

 

[Jscc]

I don't want Mobley playing the 4 for a variety of reasons though. I want Mobley at the 5 with 4 shooters on the court. Imagine Mobley having the space that Bam has when he goes against Boston because Boston is too scared to leave the other 4 Miami shooters open. Imagine DG and Mitchell operating with all of the space that Butler operates with.

Allen and Mobley on the court at the same time make things much, much easier for defenses in the playoffs. You can just help off on both of those guys and swarm our guards. That will never change. Mobley will improve on offense, but pairing him with a traditional 5 when Mobley can play the 5 himself will always limit the team offense.

Mobley's a natural PF and he said that's his best position. There's no reason he has to play C. Just get a stretch center and use the same strategy. A Dario Saric or Mo Bamba will do. Doesn't need to be a big contract guy like a Myles Turner.

 

[Randolphkeys]

If you can believe Hoopshype:

CAVALIERS TRIED TO TRADE FOR ROYCE O’NEALE
Most will point to a position. I get it. It’s small forward. That’s the weak point since LeBron James left in the summer of 2018. It’s the spot Cleveland has worked tirelessly to fill, making innumerable trade calls (they came close in February and were far down the road on a deal for Brooklyn’s Royce O’Neale before it opted not to trade him)

Yep, but at the time the cost was too great. Let's see if the price has changed.