MLB 2024 Draft

[smalls1129]

I know this is 1.1, but from a fans scouting standpoint we've seen to come to a top 4, ignoring pitchers all together. I think a big tie breaker here is going to be our internal development expertise to maximize the player selected. It might piss some people off but the 3rd best player might become a HOF drafted in CLE where the best player might be trade bait and what could have been within a year. All that to say, especially in baseball and basketball skillet and coach ability/ability to coach mean a ton.

 

[MattyFos.]

I know this is 1.1, but from a fans scouting standpoint we've seen to come to a top 4, ignoring pitchers all together. I think a big tie breaker here is going to be our internal development expertise to maximize the player selected. It might piss some people off but the 3rd best player might become a HOF drafted in CLE where the best player might be trade bait and what could have been within a year. All that to say, especially in baseball and basketball skillet and coach ability/ability to coach mean a ton.

Which is why I kind of lean Bazzana. We have a track record with contact bats. Really nothing to show in the power tool. Outside of N.Jones and Benson who we moved on from because they lacked the hitting tool.
Saying that.... I don't see Condon being a 3 true outcome guy like Jones and Benson so it's not fair comparing him to them.

 

[macbdog]

Couldn't get around on the fastball and had to hit it over the right-centerfield fence.

Still "dreadfully slow" rounding bases.

And this was with knowing what pitch was coming.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Bazzana isn't the kind of "contact bat" this organization has ever been able to add because we aren't drafting high enough.

Most contact 1st guys we are getting aren't generating top 5% EVs at all levels with tracked data, top 10% barrel rates, and have 80 grade bat speed. Bazzana is so much more than a "contact bat". Condon's historic season shouldn't be taking away from Bazzana's power, but for some reason it is.

3 easy choices for 1 that should make anyone happy this year. Don't think you can go wrong taking any of the 3. Should be a stress free pick when all is said and done.

 

[CBBI]

Bazzana isn't the kind of "contact bat" this organization has ever been able to add because we aren't drafting high enough.

Most contact 1st guys we are getting aren't generating top 5% EVs at all levels with tracked data, top 10% barrel rates, and have 80 grade bat speed. Bazzana is so much more than a "contact bat". Condon's historic season shouldn't be taking away from Bazzana's power, but for some reason it is.

3 easy choices for 1 that should make anyone happy this year. Don't think you can go wrong taking any of the 3. Should be a stress free pick when all is said and done.

Completely agree. I like Condon a lot, but Bazzana has 24 home runs of his own for goodness sake.

People are talking about him like he’s Steven Kwan or something and it’s like dude this guy is an incredible hitter with power.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Completely agree. I like Condon a lot, but Bazzana has 24 home runs of his own for goodness sake.

People are talking about him like he’s Steven Quan or something and it’s like dude this guy is an incredible hitter with power.

For as good as Condon has been, setting HR records and chasing down the all-time slugging % record in college baseball history, he has all of a .105 advantage over Bazzana in OPS.

1.568 vs 1.673

One good weekend from Bazzana and one poor weekend from Condon and they're probably within 50 points of each other, and it's taking a historic season from someone to do that. And yes, I know the SEC is a tougher conference than the PAC 12. But production is production.

What Condon is doing from a pure power standpoint is crazy. What Bazzana has been doing all around is just as crazy. 24 HRs, 24 Ks, 59 BBs. That's ridiculous, even if the Pac 12 is down this year. A near 2.5/1 BB:K rate isn't normal, never mind that the guy doing it has 24 HRs and is pushing a 1.000 slugging %.

Last major conference college hitter I can remember pushing 20 HRs and a 2/1 BB:K rate was Rutschman. I think Andrew Vaughn had a few ~15 HR seasons with over a 2:1 BB:K ratio at Cal. Maybe Benintendi at Arkansas too. But those guys have been rare just like the 30 HR hitter has been in college baseball.

When the lottery played out I remember people were worried there were no elite talents at the top. There are 2 elite hitters, just unlike last year there are defensive/up the middle questions with them.

 

[cliffdawg]

Actually, I really like Condon. My sarcasm meter was apparently turned too low on my post. I

Complaining he was running to slow around the bases after a home run, was Sarcasm enough…….lol

 

[CDAV45]

Bazzana isn't the kind of "contact bat" this organization has ever been able to add because we aren't drafting high enough.

Most contact 1st guys we are getting aren't generating top 5% EVs at all levels with tracked data, top 10% barrel rates, and have 80 grade bat speed. Bazzana is so much more than a "contact bat". Condon's historic season shouldn't be taking away from Bazzana's power, but for some reason it is.

3 easy choices for 1 that should make anyone happy this year. Don't think you can go wrong taking any of the 3. Should be a stress free pick when all is said and done.

If you're including Montgomery as the third then I agree. I don't think they could make a wrong choice. I have to say though that Montgomery's athleticism, size and switch hitting are impressive to go along with his performance. He's got plenty of room to add on good weight to that frame too.

 

[Damage]

Condon's Home / Road Splits (found on twitter)

2024 Condon Home -> Away

K%: 13.9 / 20
BB%: 17.2 / 15.4
GB%: 20.8 / 35
LD%: 22.9 / 10
FB%: 56.3 / 55
IFFB%: 1 / 12.5
BABIP: .520 / .258
wRC+: 278 / 184

If you're a cheating truther, some of those #s are pretty damning...

 

[Kiddo]

What Condon is doing from a pure power standpoint is crazy. What Bazzana has been doing all around is just as crazy. 24 HRs, 24 Ks, 59 BBs. That's ridiculous, even if the Pac 12 is down this year. A near 2.5/1 BB:K rate isn't normal, never mind that the guy doing it has 24 HRs and is pushing a 1.000 slugging %.

This is what is so crazy, Bazzana having an absolutely incredible season. He is the clear cut #1 pick if not for Condons ridiculous HR numbers. I'm trying to convince myself that Condons power won't translate to the bigs...

 

[BimboColesHair]

This is what is so crazy, Bazzana having an absolutely incredible season. He is the clear cut #1 pick if not for Condons ridiculous HR numbers. I'm trying to convince myself that Condons power won't translate to the bigs...

It will. It absolutely will.

His quality of contact stats are arguably the best seen in college baseball since tracking stats have been around at that level right now. And he is adding that with a near 90% z-Contact rate.

The only negatives on Condon are what defensive positions can he play in the MLB and are you concerned with how much he whiffs against breaking pitches and if that gets heightened against the better ones he will see as a professional. Other than not, not a lot of holes to poke in his game right now. He is killing anything in the zone, he is killing top end velocity, and he is dominating easily the best conference in college baseball right now.

No one should be taking anything either of these guys are doing away from them. Any other year and they are running away with the #1 pick. Any other year and Braden Montgomery is running away with the #1 pick. How good the top of the draft is.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Condon's Home / Road Splits (found on twitter)

2024 Condon Home -> Away

K%: 13.9 / 20
BB%: 17.2 / 15.4
GB%: 20.8 / 35
LD%: 22.9 / 10
FB%: 56.3 / 55
IFFB%: 1 / 12.5
BABIP: .520 / .258
wRC+: 278 / 184

If you're a cheating truther, some of those #s are pretty damning...

I still think you have to back out the weak opponents. Georgia isn't going to play many small college teams on the road. Their road games are mostly conference games or opportunities to play other stronger opponents. And I still havent seen how they were translating the alleged camera towards the dugout into actionable data from pitch to pitch. The Astros obviously did it with the catcher's signs but it takes some pretty good coordination to pull off.

 

[Damage]

I still think you have to back out the weak opponents. Georgia isn't going to play many small college teams on the road. Their road games are mostly conference games or opportunities to play other stronger opponents. And I still havent seen how they were translating the alleged camera towards the dugout into actionable data from pitch to pitch. The Astros obviously did it with the catcher's signs but it takes some pretty good coordination to pull off.

For the record, I'm not making any accusations just dispersing the information I see.

I would love to see the cross-tabs as you mentioned, but surface level? Those #s are pretty damning.

 

[Tondo]

I agree that there are two or maybe even 4 or 5 good choices for 1.1, but Bazzana's track record and off the charts intangibles tip the scales for me personally.

That said, question for you Bimbo, if the FO agrees that there are multiple good players for the pick, will bonus demand become the deciding factor?

And no, this isn't a Dolan argument. I know they will spend the entire budget plus probably the 5% over tax as they do almost every year (only 2020 the Covid Draft they didn't iirc).

I'm firmly team Bazzana, so even if one of Wetherholt (who'd be my 2nd choice) or Condon or Kurtz would be willing to sign for 1M less, I'd still want them to draft Bazzana, but otoh having 1M more or less is pretty significant extra money later in the draft.

 

[BimboColesHair]

No.

Bonus $ won't be a deciding factor. I'd expect whoever is taken at #1 to come in well under slot value already too, giving you more $ for further down the draft, on top of this being a comp pick A year that already boosts your bonus pool.