MLB 2024 Draft

[petes999]

More from Mayo…

Inbox: Early favorites for AL and NL ROY

Our first mock draft of the spring is out and, as always, it has elicited many opinions. I wanted to make things easier for folks who haven’t weighed in yet and wanted to. For your copy/paste pleasure: There is no way the \[INSERT TEAM NAME HERE\] would ever take \[INSERT

www.mlb.com

Where would Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon rank on the top 100 MLB prospects today? -- @Blahbla92342524
This is something we’ll obviously tackle after the 2024 Draft, but it’s always a fun exercise to look at the top Draft prospects, and Condon and Bazzana are No. 1 and 2 on our Draft Top 150 (and I had them going 1-2 in that first mock draft).
Last year, the top five of the Draft -- and we’ve spoken enough about how special that quintet is -- landed at 3 (Paul Skenes), 4 (Dylan Crews), 13 (Wyatt Langford), 15 (Max Clark) and 16 (Walker Jenkins). Langford made it clear pretty quickly that we had him too low and we addressed that this preseason. All five are still on the list from Skenes at 3 to Clark at 12. I bring this up because I don’t think I’d put either of this year’s top players ahead of that fab five. While both Condon and Bazzana are having extraordinary seasons, I think I’d set the bar for them behind Clark. James Wood is currently 13 and I’d probably put him ahead, but sticking Condon and Bazzana ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong at 15 seems like a decent fit.

I thought post lottery, he was thinking 20s for this years first pick….

And, I believe I posted a snippet on this before but funny how Mayo sounds like this board at times
Do the Guardians take C. Condon? -- @Uncle_Tom_Hicks
. Most teams think Condon is the best player in the Draft, the numbers he’s putting up are extraordinary, and he’s proven to be more athletic than some anticipated, quelling worries about him not having a defensive home. Add in the fact that the Guardians have a lot of left-handed bats in the big leagues and the system, adding some serious right-handed thump seems to make a ton of sense.

 

[mopete12]

No.

Bonus $ won't be a deciding factor. I'd expect whoever is taken at #1 to come in well under slot value already too, giving you more $ for further down the draft, on top of this being a comp pick A year that already boosts your bonus pool.

Is this just due to age/leverage? Do most college 1.1 picks come under slot?

 

[Gson]

I agree that there are two or maybe even 4 or 5 good choices for 1.1, but Bazzana's track record and off the charts intangibles tip the scales for me personally.

That said, question for you Bimbo, if the FO agrees that there are multiple good players for the pick, will bonus demand become the deciding factor?

And no, this isn't a Dolan argument. I know they will spend the entire budget plus probably the 5% over tax as they do almost every year (only 2020 the Covid Draft they didn't iirc).

I'm firmly team Bazzana, so even if one of Wetherholt (who'd be my 2nd choice) or Condon or Kurtz would be willing to sign for 1M less, I'd still want them to draft Bazzana, but otoh having 1M more or less is pretty significant extra money later in the draft.

If a position player is the choice.. there are three or four that are relevant. Two are specifically relevant.. It may come down to anything BUT bonu$ demand.. The decision on a position player may come down to handedness... Or it could be the always more important to the Guardians historically, how that prospect did in wood bat showcases or leagues..

btw.. your # 2 is a damn fine ball player

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Is this just due to age/leverage? Do most college 1.1 picks come under slot?

Recently, Torkelson signed at slot, Rutschmann a little under, and Henry Davis way under. Though it was clear that Pittsburgh picked Davis for that reason to spend the money later.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Skenes signed for $520k under slot
Holliday signed for $660k under slot
Davis signed for $1.92m under slot
2020 draft was conducted very differently with how shallow the pool was and how few rounds there were. A lot more guys got full slot $ because you didn't need more bonus $ for guys who fell into the 8th, 9th, 10th rounds
Rutschman signed for $320k under slot
Mize signed for $600k under slot
Lewis signed for $1.04m under slot
Moniak signed for $2.91m under slot
Swanson signed for $2.11m under slot

I'd expect whoever is drafted to be at least ~$500k underslot, which is a big number for a 1st round underslot just because the 1.1 slot value is huge this year. $10.57m slot value this year.

Think if all of them were told they would be offered $9.5m they would take it, as it would set the record for highest bonus ever, which would give you $1m more to play with the rest of the draft, which is a huge number with the comp A pick valued at $2.56m. Can do a lot of damage in the later rounds with an extra $500k to $1m to work with.

 

[PocketMonger]

Glad the narrative is changing about this years class. When Cleveland won the lottery it seemed like they would add a good prospect to the system but not earth shattering either. Condon to Cleveland makes too much sense not to happen.

 

[Lee]

Skenes signed for $520k under slot
Holliday signed for $660k under slot
Davis signed for $1.92m under slot
2020 draft was conducted very differently with how shallow the pool was and how few rounds there were. A lot more guys got full slot $ because you didn't need more bonus $ for guys who fell into the 8th, 9th, 10th rounds
Rutschman signed for $320k under slot
Mize signed for $600k under slot
Lewis signed for $1.04m under slot
Moniak signed for $2.91m under slot
Swanson signed for $2.11m under slot

I'd expect whoever is drafted to be at least ~$500k underslot, which is a big number for a 1st round underslot just because the 1.1 slot value is huge this year. $10.57m slot value this year.

Think if all of them were told they would be offered $9.5m they would take it, as it would set the record for highest bonus ever, which would give you $1m more to play with the rest of the draft, which is a huge number with the comp A back valued at $2.56m. Can do a lot of damage in the later rounds with an extra $500k to $1m to work with.

Who would you draft? Obviously as long as we draft one of the two we are fine, but i keep going back and forth and I never followed a baseball draft before so what do i knoe.

But whoever we draft is coming out of college and could be up as early as what 2026? So we need right hand power bats, but position matters and middle infielder has the best ability to move to a position of need like RF right?

But you dont draft for need for the first overall, but if they are ranked close isnt need a difference maker?

I could talk myself into either obviously, just curious if you are leaning one way or the other right now.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Skenes signed for $520k under slot
Holliday signed for $660k under slot
Davis signed for $1.92m under slot
2020 draft was conducted very differently with how shallow the pool was and how few rounds there were. A lot more guys got full slot $ because you didn't need more bonus $ for guys who fell into the 8th, 9th, 10th rounds
Rutschman signed for $320k under slot
Mize signed for $600k under slot
Lewis signed for $1.04m under slot
Moniak signed for $2.91m under slot
Swanson signed for $2.11m under slot

I'd expect whoever is drafted to be at least ~$500k underslot, which is a big number for a 1st round underslot just because the 1.1 slot value is huge this year. $10.57m slot value this year.

Think if all of them were told they would be offered $9.5m they would take it, as it would set the record for highest bonus ever, which would give you $1m more to play with the rest of the draft, which is a huge number with the comp A back valued at $2.56m. Can do a lot of damage in the later rounds with an extra $500k to $1m to work with.

Also, anyone who doesn't sign has to count on being good enough next year to get $10 million or more. If the pick is Bazzana, he is a bit older so a year just reduces his work life expectancy as a baseball player by a year while possibly making his age into a negative.

 

[Benway]

Any idea if Scott Boras has latched onto a player yet? He's got to be looking to ram it to some MLB franchise.

 

[thoughtful]

Skenes signed for $520k under slot
Holliday signed for $660k under slot
Davis signed for $1.92m under slot
2020 draft was conducted very differently with how shallow the pool was and how few rounds there were. A lot more guys got full slot $ because you didn't need more bonus $ for guys who fell into the 8th, 9th, 10th rounds
Rutschman signed for $320k under slot
Mize signed for $600k under slot
Lewis signed for $1.04m under slot
Moniak signed for $2.91m under slot
Swanson signed for $2.11m under slot

I'd expect whoever is drafted to be at least ~$500k underslot, which is a big number for a 1st round underslot just because the 1.1 slot value is huge this year. $10.57m slot value this year.

Think if all of them were told they would be offered $9.5m they would take it, as it would set the record for highest bonus ever, which would give you $1m more to play with the rest of the draft, which is a huge number with the comp A back valued at $2.56m. Can do a lot of damage in the later rounds with an extra $500k to $1m to work with.

Obviously, the results last year look very promising. They went under slot on Velasquez and over on Clemmey. Then they went under slot on Walters and eventually over slot on Mooney. It is early, but the results for all 4 are encouraging.

The most recent counterpoint is 2020 (I know it was a weird year). They went under on Tucker who has been a no show to this point. They gave the savings to Halpin who has a career .720 OPS (but who has been very young at every level and who is supposedly a true CF). We will see if this looks better over time.

 

[Gson]

Also, anyone who doesn't sign has to count on being good enough next year to get $10 million or more. If the pick is Bazzana, he is a bit older so a year just reduces his work life expectancy as a baseball player by a year while possibly making his age into a negative.

Work/life expectancy for valuable players only matters for the controllable portion of their salary while with Cleveland (w/ the odd under payment for extended guys while under team control that go into a year or two of being FA's).. In short.. Cleveland seldom holds onto guys long enough who would matter to Boras and his peculiarities or way of doing business..

-For college guys.. it's historically prime years..
For High School guys.. it's sub-prime years..

After that.. they're FA's.. looking at massive salary bumps and long term opportunities in baseball.. Some playing.. most not..

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Work/life expectancy for valuable players only matters for the controllable portion of their salary while with Cleveland (w/ the odd under payment for extended guys while under team control that go into a year or two of being FA's).. In short.. Cleveland seldom holds onto guys long enough who would matter to Boras and his peculiarities or way of doing business..

-For college guys.. it's historically prime years..
For High School guys.. it's sub-prime years..

After that.. they're FA's.. looking at massive salary bumps and long term opportunities in baseball.. Some playing.. most not..

At some point every player retires intentionally or by faded performance. If you stay in college an extra year, your "retirement" age from baseball doesn't extend by a year. And while Cleveland may only care about the pre-free agency part of the career, the player wants as many years of service time as possible. So starting sooner is better for the player.

 

[ajz20]

Bazzana no matter what!

 

[Gson]

At some point every player retires intentionally or by faded performance. If you stay in college an extra year, your "retirement" age from baseball doesn't extend by a year. And while Cleveland may only care about the pre-free agency part of the career, the player wants as many years of service time as possible. So starting sooner is better for the player.

I think we're on the same page..

Cleveland has not and cannot afford to have a multitude of nine figure guys with the first number starting with a 3... Our guys are at their peaks when they're reaching ARB II... with the possible hope they have four ARB years.. During their ascent, the MiLB's are back filling for when they leave.. More times than "once in a while.." a guy stays the full Monty or a year or two over.. That's generally when they head out to greener pastures.. The sun shining during that time is when the Guardians need to make hay..

The sweet spot is about 24 to 29.. for the Guardians.. perhaps a year or two either way.. That's where our bread is buttered...

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

I think we're on the same page..

Cleveland has not and cannot afford to have a multitude of nine figure guys with the first number starting with a 3... Our guys are at their peaks when they're reaching ARB II... with the possible hope they have four ARB years.. During their ascent, the MiLB's are back filling for when they leave.. More times than "once in a while.." a guy stays the full Monty or a year or two over.. That's generally when they head out to greener pastures.. The sun shining during that time is when the Guardians need to make hay..

The sweet spot is about 24 to 29.. for the Guardians.. perhaps a year or two either way.. That's where our bread is buttered...

Baseball is probably the only sport where you can still compete spending 1/2 the money of most of the league. Allowing the team to decide when you are major league ready and delay your service time until they do pushes the players closer to their prime during most of their time with the drafting team while also forcing them to play for pennies on the dollar initially if they are immediate stars. Compare that to the NBA where you are burning your time with very young players that could be 3-4 years away from being truly impactful or the NHL where you biological age drives unrestricted free agency.