Moore's Law and the power of exponential advancement

[Cavatt]

I'm only being a little snarky here, but i thought global warming was supposed to have devastating effects on all of us? Perhaps the kind of societal-wide technological progress you describe will not continue unabated because wel'll have other major problems to address.

Well the argument against green tech was that it will become better later so why invest now. I guess all the computer companies like Tandy shouldn't have bothered bothered because now we have timer more powerful computers and they are out of business.

Same thing when they were sequencing the genome. They did the bulk of it in the last couple of years, so it seemed like the first decade was a waste of time, but it didn't get that fast until they took the previous steps.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Well the argument against green tech was that it will become better later so why invest now. I guess all the computer companies like Tandy shouldn't have bothered bothered because now we have timer more powerful computers and they are out of business.

That wasn't my point. My specific point is that you can't postulate the societal-wide implementation of a range of technological advancements that will render vast numbers unemployable, while simultaneously claiming we're heading off a cliff with global warming. The problems caused by the latter should derail the former.

But the broader point is that there are too many unknowns - including unknown unknowns - to easily assume that we'll get to a fully automated society. The depth of penetration of automation required to make labor truly superfluous is immense, and I don't think that can happen absent resolution of the societal effects along the way.

In other words, if/when we ever get to the point where automation is truly that ubiquitous, providing for the poor would be a minimal burden.

 

[KI4MVP]

That wasn't my point. My specific point is that you can't postulate the societal-wide implementation of a range of technological advancements that will render vast numbers unemployable, while simultaneously claiming we're heading off a cliff with global warming. The problems caused by the latter should derail the former.

you have that backwards. global warming isn't going to derail the advancement of technology, the advancement of technology is our best bet to do something significant about global warming.

But the broader point is that there are too many unknowns - including unknown unknowns - to easily assume that we'll get to a fully automated society. The depth of penetration of automation required to make labor truly superfluous is immense, and I don't think that can happen absent resolution of the societal effects along the way.

to do it all at once would be immense, but you have to remember that today's supercomputers (like are used to run Watson) are tomorrow's systems on a chip. Adoption will happen all along that curve.

 

[KI4MVP]

Can a mod rename this thread to

"Moore's Law and the Future of Technology"

 

[Otsego Mar]

Can a mod rename this thread to

"Moore's Law and the Future of Technology"

If machines take over everything how will I make money? Oh, that's right, money and government should have been obsolete by now too!

 

[gourimoko]

If machines take over everything how will I make money? Oh, that's right, money and government should have been obsolete by now too!

Eventually, automation will end the concept of a free market economy and the present day notion that we have of "money."

 

[The Oi]

Eventually, automation will end the concept of a free market economy and the present day notion that we have of "money."

And? What will we do all day?

 

[gourimoko]

And? What will we do all day?

Other things...

Likely the arts, sciences, and I would imagine the entertainment industry would become much larger than it is today...

 

[KI4MVP]

And? What will we do all day?

post on RCF

 

[Otsego Mar]

Eventually, automation will end the concept of a free market economy and the present day notion that we have of "money."

So we'll become enslaved in some other ways...... Hopefully not.

 

[Otsego Mar]

And? What will we do all day?

Eventually realize we're being simulated and then produce a simulation ourself and never leave our houses.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Eventually, automation will end the concept of a free market economy and the present day notion that we have of "money."

And eventually, the sun will turn into a red giant.

I think the point at which automation ends our present conception of money is many centuries in the future, and even then, is predicated on no catastrophic events such as a major war, disease, etc..

 

[Zog]

And eventually, the sun will turn into a red giant.

I think the point at which automation ends our present conception of money is many centuries in the future, and even then, is predicated on no catastrophic events such as a major war, disease, etc..

I don't think it's centuries in the future, but maybe not in anyone's lifetime here...

Automation is going to do some major things to the economy. Lots of lower skill jobs will be eliminated. You already see it at grocery/big box scores with the self checkout lanes. Bank tellers are starting to go away thanks to mobile/online banking. We have driverless ubers already (granted very few), driverless trucks are coming soon... lots of these jobs that basically anyone can do are going to become more sparse. Fast food will go to kiosks to order eventually.

I can see these types of jobs going away really causing some issues. They aren't great jobs in terms of compensation, but they're something, and maybe the people who have them struggle to get by and/or receive some assistance. But when the pool of jobs that these people are qualified for gets smaller, more and more of them will be unemployed and theoretically unable to get a new job (because they don't have the experience/skills to get anything else) and they are suddenly going to be worse off and more reliant on government assistance, because their low-paying job became a job that pays 0.

 

[theSwayze]

I'm here to plug a friends very excellent book on Mr Moore.

https://www.amazon.com/Moores-Law-Silicon-Valleys-Revolutionary/dp/0465055648

 

[Maximus]

Smart phones/devices, 3D printers and robots are going to eventually eliminate most companies and jobs. That's one of the main reason I don't want people flooding across our borders illegally...we don't need more people, we can't take care of our own. I think we are heading towards a major population problem...here and around the world.

Back to 3D printers, in 20 years they'll be as common in a home as a microwave is now.