Moore's Law and the power of exponential advancement

[David.]

And? What will we do all day?

Actually live life.

 

[David.]

I don't think it's centuries in the future, but maybe not in anyone's lifetime here...

Automation is going to do some major things to the economy. Lots of lower skill jobs will be eliminated. You already see it at grocery/big box scores with the self checkout lanes. Bank tellers are starting to go away thanks to mobile/online banking. We have driverless ubers already (granted very few), driverless trucks are coming soon... lots of these jobs that basically anyone can do are going to become more sparse. Fast food will go to kiosks to order eventually.

I can see these types of jobs going away really causing some issues. They aren't great jobs in terms of compensation, but they're something, and maybe the people who have them struggle to get by and/or receive some assistance. But when the pool of jobs that these people are qualified for gets smaller, more and more of them will be unemployed and theoretically unable to get a new job (because they don't have the experience/skills to get anything else) and they are suddenly going to be worse off and more reliant on government assistance, because their low-paying job became a job that pays 0.

It won't be centuries. Cars can drive themselves. The growth rate of technology is exponential.

We had flip phones 8 years ago and you could make calls on them.

Today you can use your phone to make a video call or livestream any sporting event in the world, or use it to provide yourself with free internet service.




Jobs are fucked, generally. Maybe I, robot was allegory.

 

[The Oi]

Actually live life.

Fuck that. I want to read more about how you fucked some wheelchair bound dude in the ass with a fork once the robots learn how to do my jobs. @cavman

 

[David.]

Fuck that. I want to read more about how you fucked some wheelchair bound dude in the ass with a fork once the robots learn how to do my jobs. @cavman

I predict an increase in the occurrence and reporting of that scenario once robots replace the working class, you are in luck lol.

Either that or the working class will die. Or neither. Or both.

 

[Zog]

It won't be centuries. Cars can drive themselves. The growth rate of technology is exponential.

We had flip phones 8 years ago and you could make calls on them.

Today you can use your phone to make a video call or livestream any sporting event in the world, or use it to provide yourself with free internet service.




Jobs are fucked, generally. Maybe I, robot was allegory.

This is very true, but it will take more time than just the introduction of these technological advances to get rid of jobs. About 200,000 tractors are sold each month (to clarify, by tractors I mean the truck that pulls the semi trailer, not a farm tractor). Essentially none of them were self driving.

About 17 million cars were sold in 2016. Essentially none of them were self driving either.

If we start tomorrow to only sell self-driving cars, it's still going to be 15 years before every car on the road is self-driving (assuming a new car these days will last approximately 15 years). Same with the trucks, unless it is shown that it's just way cheaper to phase out human-driven trucks from fleets and instantly go to self-driven trucks. Technology is going to move faster than people/companies adjust to the new technology in some cases.

 

[David.]

This is very true, but it will take more time than just the introduction of these technological advances to get rid of jobs. About 200,000 tractors are sold each month (to clarify, by tractors I mean the truck that pulls the semi trailer, not a farm tractor). Essentially none of them were self driving.

About 17 million cars were sold in 2016. Essentially none of them were self driving either.

If we start tomorrow to only sell self-driving cars, it's still going to be 15 years before every car on the road is self-driving (assuming a new car these days will last approximately 15 years). Same with the trucks, unless it is shown that it's just way cheaper to phase out human-driven trucks from fleets and instantly go to self-driven trucks. Technology is going to move faster than people/companies adjust to the new technology in some cases.

Certainly there will be a phase out, but ultimately the population grows and the jobs are being taken away.

Some jobs will be created.. in this instance, not as many as destroyed.

Other technology has created jobs. Automation should be considered separately from technology as a whole.

 

[cavman]

uber for hookers, boom jobs.

 

[David.]

uber for hookers, boom jobs.

Coincidentally, "Moon" is my most loyal customer.

 

[cavman]

Fuck that. I want to read more about how you fucked some wheelchair bound dude in the ass with a fork once the robots learn how to do my jobs. @cavman

here is the fork that sick fuck dave got me with.

 

[KI4MVP]

This is very true, but it will take more time than just the introduction of these technological advances to get rid of jobs. About 200,000 tractors are sold each month (to clarify, by tractors I mean the truck that pulls the semi trailer, not a farm tractor). Essentially none of them were self driving.

About 17 million cars were sold in 2016. Essentially none of them were self driving either.

If we start tomorrow to only sell self-driving cars, it's still going to be 15 years before every car on the road is self-driving (assuming a new car these days will last approximately 15 years). Same with the trucks, unless it is shown that it's just way cheaper to phase out human-driven trucks from fleets and instantly go to self-driven trucks. Technology is going to move faster than people/companies adjust to the new technology in some cases.

It's really hard to say how long a full conversion will take. For commercial cases, there will be built in incentives for switching. You eliminate the expense of the drivers and accident insurance costs should also decline. And for some specific commercial cases, there are potentially costs savings associated with building vehicles that don't have to accommodate either drivers or passengers.

There's also the potential that targeted existing models could be retrofitted for autonomous driving.

 

[David.]

I googled "I, robot allegory automation" because I wanted to champion myself as the first to link it, and unfortunately I don't get to make that claim.

Fortunately, I can be the first to link this article
http://m.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation




This article is.. fantastic. Addresses everything are talking about. Includes mores law as well. Very thorough

 

[Otsego Mar]

I googled "I, robot allegory automation" because I wanted to champion myself as the first to link it, and unfortunately I don't get to make that claim.

Fortunately, I can be the first to link this article
http://m.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation




This article is.. fantastic. Addresses everything are talking about. Includes mores law as well. Very thorough

You're wanted in the sex thread. You belong there.

 

[gourimoko]

And eventually, the sun will turn into a red giant.

..lol..

I think the point at which automation ends our present conception of money is many centuries in the future

What makes you say "many centuries in the future?"

As I see it Q-Tip, in the not-so-distant future, perhaps in our lifetimes, we will very likely have a complete artificial brain; as in, a conscious, sentient, thinking machine modeled after the human brain via a complete simulation of the human neural network.

Once we get to the point where such simulations can do complex tasks, like my job as an analyst/programmer, or say your job as a lawyer, then yes, the point where automation begins to reshape and ultimately obsolete the market economy will be here.

The near-future technology that's on the foreseeable horizon puts us fairly close to this point where we reach a technological singularity; at which time, technological advancements will vastly increase in pace, quite obviously due to the much faster cognitive speed at which artificial brains can operate.

At the point in which we have workable AI and autonomous robots in everyday life, neither of which is many centuries away, then the market economy would cease to be a viable model for human beings -- pretty much anywhere that such technology was available.

Q-Tip, imagine a world where you could 3D print an AI-driven android everyday... in your garage.. You could have an android cleaning your home, a different one tending to your food, another one comforting you when you're sick...

You could have an android that could act as doctor, lawyer, receptionist, housemaid, nanny, and full-time sexbot.

Think about it, if you need companionship you could make an android; if you want a pet, just print one; if you want a new TV, the androids will print the parts and assemble it for you... Need to go to out? The car will shuttle you wherever you need to go. Want a new house? The androids will build you one, working day and night...

What job/function/societal role is safe from both high-level artificial intelligence coupled with robotics?

Androids that can simulate human interactions are definitely within our lifetimes. The artificial intelligence technology that might drive them to the point at which they could surpass human intelligence is not far behind.

 

[David.]

..lol..



What makes you say "many centuries in the future?"

As I see it Q-Tip, in the not-so-distant future, perhaps in our lifetimes, we will very likely have a complete artificial brain; as in, a conscious, sentient, thinking machine modeled after the human brain via a complete simulation of the human neural network.

Once we get to the point where such simulations can do complex tasks, like my job as an analyst/programmer, or say your job as a lawyer, then yes, the point where automation begins to reshape and ultimately obsolete the market economy will be here.

The near-future technology that's on the foreseeable horizon puts us fairly close to this point where we reach a technological singularity; at which time, technological advancements will vastly increase in pace, quite obviously due to the much faster cognitive speed at which artificial brains can operate.

At the point in which we have workable AI and autonomous robots in everyday life, neither of which is many centuries away, then the market economy would cease to be a viable model for human beings -- pretty much anywhere that such technology was available.

Q-Tip, imagine a world where you could 3D print an AI-driven android everyday... in your garage.. You could have an android cleaning your home, a different one tending to your food, another one comforting you when you're sick...

You could have an android that could act as doctor, lawyer, receptionist, housemaid, nanny, and full-time sexbot.

Think about it, if you need companionship you could make an android; if you want a pet, just print one; if you want a new TV, the androids will print the parts and assemble it for you... Need to go to out? The car will shuttle you wherever you need to go. Want a new house? The androids will build you one, working day and night...

What job/function/societal role is safe from both high-level artificial intelligence coupled with robotics?

Androids that can simulate human interactions are definitely within our lifetimes. The artificial intelligence technology that might drive them to the point at which they could surpass human intelligence is not far behind.

Yep

 

[gourimoko]

Smart phones/devices, 3D printers and robots are going to eventually eliminate most companies and jobs. That's one of the main reason I don't want people flooding across our borders illegally...we don't need more people, we can't take care of our own. I think we are heading towards a major population problem...here and around the world.

I'd speculate that in the not-so-distant future, people will not have children anywhere near the rate they do today and will live and considerably longer than they do at present - thus, the incentive to have children, due to say a need to live on, will be greatly diminished.

Back to 3D printers, in 20 years they'll be as common in a home as a microwave is now.

Absolutely agree..

I have 2, one sitting right next to me. .