The Wizard of Moz
Punishing This Air
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2015
- Messages
- 20,585
- Reaction score
- 33,942
- Points
- 148
Let’s get this performance review out of the way before I get to the good stuff…the model’s accuracy of this round was remarkably similar to last round’s results. From initial projections, the model did not pick the exact outcome in either series, but it did pick the correct overall winner in both series. The model first identified the correct series’ outcomes of Warriors in 7 after Game 1, and Cavs in 6 after Game 4.
It was remarkably bullish and consistent with its picks as well. It predicted Warriors in 5 for one game (before Game 1), Warriors in 7 for four games (before Games 2-4 and 7), and Thunder in 6 for two games (before Games 5-6). In the East it predicted Cavs in 5 for four games (before Games 1-4), and Cavs in 6 for two games (before Games 5-6.) The model also continues its 14-consecutive series streak of ending a series with a correct prediction.
As for individual games, it picked the game winner for 4 out of the 6 games in the East (missing games 3 and 4), and 4 out of the 7 games in the West (missing games 1, 3, and 6.) The total for the playoffs so far to 63/79 correct predictions, still nearly 80%!!!
Here’s what the NBA Finals look like:
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 6.29%
Warriors in 5: 14.54%
Warriors in 6: 14.34%
Warriors in 7: 17.99%
Cavs in 7: 13.57%
Cavs in 6: 16.95%
Cavs in 5: 10.53%
Cavs in 4: 5.80%
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 57%/Cavs Win 43%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.91%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.85%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.56%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 53.15% likely
Cavs win series: 46.85% likely
Believe it or not, my model has this series (and these two teams) as remarkably even overall. I was surprised at this, but my model seems to think the Cavs unrivaled offensive efficiency through these playoffs is sustainable. Because both of these teams are very capable of winning big both at home and away, when considering the total range of outcomes most of these games average out to close to even odds. A side effect of this occurrence is each game played in this series will have a larger influence in my model's predictions than a usual series. (In other words, it's quite likely my model will adopt frontrunner tendencies.)
The thing pushing the Warriors over the top right now is homecourt advantage and a potential extra game. When I saw this, just for fun I decided to run the numbers on what the series would look like if the Cavs were the ones with homecourt advantage instead, all other things being equal. This is what I got:
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (1)
Cavs in 4: 5.80%
Cavs in 5: 13.71%
Cavs in 6: 13.76%
Cavs in 7: 17.68%
Warriors in 7: 13.89%
Warriors in 6: 17.65%
Warriors in 5: 11.22%
Warriors in 4: 6.29%
Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 50.95% likely
Warriors win series: 49.05% likely
Interesting, no?
Very surprising to me is the odds of a sweep on either side being ~12%.