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NBA betting thread

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AsianDawg said:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from Record Conf Point Diff Conf Semis Conf Finals Finals Championship
17671773
+32
i
Thunder11-4West+7.0✓✓84%54%
17051715
-3
i
Cavaliers11-2East+6.3✓✓87%32%
17671772
-32
i
Warriors9-5West+9.9✓✓16%12%
16101618
+3
i
Raptors10-9East+2.9✓✓13%3%
Click to expand...

HurricaneKid said:
Id be interested to see how 538 got to that total because it is SOOoo far from what Vegas has.
Click to expand...

If anyone is interested in how 538 does their forecasts/predictions, it is an incredibly simple ELO model. You can design your own approximation at home in minutes. Literally the only thing they use to calculate their ELO ratings are overall win-loss records of a team, margin of victory in games, and whether it was a home or away game. That is literally it.

The Thunder have such a high ELO rating for 4 wins in 6 tries against the Spurs, and 3 wins in 4 tries against the Warriors...two teams that have had stronger ELO ratings than them. So by beating them (especially any time they've won on the road) they've main big gains in their rating, while their opponents' rating decrease by a similar amount.

From there they just use the mathematical odds they've calculated for individual games (exactly the same as I do for my model) to calculate the percentage odds of winning a series and a championship.

As @David. and @gourimoko noted, a system like that is a good estimation for the regular season, but next to meaningless in the playoffs...especially the later rounds where there is less of a talent disparity between teams. It does not factor individual match-ups at all. It really doesn't factor anything...just "did team A or team B win?" and by how much.
 
Last edited:
I'm glad my model was right last night, because if not it would have been the first time a series ended without it settling in on the correct actual outcome of a series. Streak still alive! ;)

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0%
Warriors in 7: 27.3% (+16.58%)
Thunder in 7: 11.7% (+5.41%)
Thunder in 6: 61% (+15.01%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0% (-37%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Odds series goes 7 games: 39% (+21.99%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.39 (+0.59)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 27.3% likely (+16.58%)
Thunder win series: 72.7% likely (-16.58%)
 
Fuck you OKC, for defying my model and choking your 4th quarter lead. My model was right all along for never being too high on your chances.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0%
Warriors in 7: 78% (+50.7%)
Thunder in 7: 22% (+10.3%)
Thunder in 6: 0.0% (-61%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0%
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 78% likely (+50.7%)
Thunder win series: 22% likely (-50.7%)
 
shoes22 said:
Fuck you OKC, for defying my model and choking your 4th quarter lead. My model was right all along for never being too high on your chances.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0%
Warriors in 7: 78% (+50.7%)
Thunder in 7: 22% (+10.3%)
Thunder in 6: 0.0% (-61%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0%
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 78% likely (+50.7%)
Thunder win series: 22% likely (-50.7%)
Click to expand...

Don't worry about it shoes.. Those clowns held a commanding lead throughout the game, and were up four possessions with fewer minutes remaining to play.

They choked. Nobody can deny how absolutely horribly they played.

This was their Jose Mesa moment, IMHO (as close to it as they'll ever get at least). Minutes away from the NBA Finals, your superstar on the brink of free agency, and you choke it away. People will ask, what could have been?
 
Warriors have confidence. Dubs in 5 or 6. :( I love the Cavs but I don't see the Cavs beating the Warriors and refs.
 
The Thunder didn't have confidence up 3-1?

The WORRIERS had confidence when they were down 40 in game 4 to go down 3-1?

The Cavs ARENT confident?

What is this? Some sort of twilight zone
 
@shoes22, how does your model like the Cavs? How's the updated record through the playoffs?
 
Let’s get this performance review out of the way before I get to the good stuff…the model’s accuracy of this round was remarkably similar to last round’s results. From initial projections, the model did not pick the exact outcome in either series, but it did pick the correct overall winner in both series. The model first identified the correct series’ outcomes of Warriors in 7 after Game 1, and Cavs in 6 after Game 4.

It was remarkably bullish and consistent with its picks as well. It predicted Warriors in 5 for one game (before Game 1), Warriors in 7 for four games (before Games 2-4 and 7), and Thunder in 6 for two games (before Games 5-6). In the East it predicted Cavs in 5 for four games (before Games 1-4), and Cavs in 6 for two games (before Games 5-6.) The model also continues its 14-consecutive series streak of ending a series with a correct prediction.

As for individual games, it picked the game winner for 4 out of the 6 games in the East (missing games 3 and 4), and 4 out of the 7 games in the West (missing games 1, 3, and 6.) The total for the playoffs so far to 63/79 correct predictions, still nearly 80%!!!

Here’s what the NBA Finals look like:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 6.29%
Warriors in 5: 14.54%
Warriors in 6: 14.34%
Warriors in 7: 17.99%
Cavs in 7: 13.57%
Cavs in 6: 16.95%
Cavs in 5: 10.53%
Cavs in 4: 5.80%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 57%/Cavs Win 43%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.91%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.85%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.56%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 53.15% likely
Cavs win series: 46.85% likely

Believe it or not, my model has this series (and these two teams) as remarkably even overall. I was surprised at this, but my model seems to think the Cavs unrivaled offensive efficiency through these playoffs is sustainable. Because both of these teams are very capable of winning big both at home and away, when considering the total range of outcomes most of these games average out to close to even odds. A side effect of this occurrence is each game played in this series will have a larger influence in my model's predictions than a usual series. (In other words, it's quite likely my model will adopt frontrunner tendencies.)

The thing pushing the Warriors over the top right now is homecourt advantage and a potential extra game. When I saw this, just for fun I decided to run the numbers on what the series would look like if the Cavs were the ones with homecourt advantage instead, all other things being equal. This is what I got:

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (1)
Cavs in 4: 5.80%
Cavs in 5: 13.71%
Cavs in 6: 13.76%
Cavs in 7: 17.68%
Warriors in 7: 13.89%
Warriors in 6: 17.65%
Warriors in 5: 11.22%
Warriors in 4: 6.29%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 50.95% likely
Warriors win series: 49.05% likely

Interesting, no?
 
Vegas has the Warriors at 2/1 favorites to beat the Cavs and the Warriors are 5.5 point favorites in Game 1.

For comparison the OKC thunder opened as 7.5 point dogs in Game 1 of the WCF.
 
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