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NBA betting thread
- Thread starter David.
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The Wizard of Moz
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I've never bet on a sporting event in my life, but strongly considering throwing down some cash on that game tomorrow.
Even line? Are they insane?
Simon
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Now it is CLE -6 (S/O to the ESPN App for the lines).
shoes22
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A lot of people in the Toronto area are relatively wealthy and like to gamble, and perhaps a lot of them are Raptors fans as well?
In any case, now’s a great time to bet on the Cavs winning.
shoes22
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Oh you’re using the ESPN app? That would be why. ESPN posts the odds for all series as “even” until the game is like 36 hours away or something.
Simon
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Gotcha. I just saw the odds just now. CLE -6 tomorrow. Golden State still -3 for tonight.
shoes22
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So, my model really had no idea what to make of last night's game. It's designed not to overreact too much to blowouts and large single game fluctuations, and considers a game last night a statistical outlier unless tomorrow's Game 4 proves otherwise. For that reason, it's hedging its bets and is still higher on the Warriors than most.
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0% (-20.55%)
Warriors in 6: 15.24% (-7.86%)
Warriors in 7: 30.02% (+2.16%)
Thunder in 7: 11.67% (+2.87%)
Thunder in 6: 27.95% (+13.79%)
Thunder in 5: 15.12% (+9.59%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%
Game 4 Odds:
Warriors win 46%/Thunder Win 54%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 84.88% (+10.96%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 41.69% (+5.03%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.27 (+0.16)
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 45.26% likely (-26.26%)
Thunder win series: 54.74% likely (+26.26%)
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 15.24% (-7.86%)
Warriors in 7: 30.02% (+2.16%)
Thunder in 7: 11.67% (+2.87%)
Thunder in 6: 27.95% (+13.79%)
Thunder in 5: 15.12% (+9.59%)
Game 4 Odds:
Warriors win 46%/Thunder Win 54%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 84.88% (+10.96%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 41.69% (+5.03%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.27 (+0.16)
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 45.26% likely (-26.26%)
Thunder win series: 54.74% likely (+26.26%)
The Wizard of Moz
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To be honest I know everyone will say 'Wizard ya big dummy', but I agree with those odds.
I would say it is just more likely than not that the Thunder win the series. They really have to protect homecourt because winning another game at Snoracle will be very difficult.
Ohio
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How do the odds change if Draymond does not play Game 4?
shoes22
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That's big, and it completely slipped my mind too so thanks for reminding me. Draymond is the Warriors 2nd most valuable player and most valuable big by a considerable margin. Draymond not playing increases the Thunder's odds of winning Game 4 by 15%, and increases their odds of winning the series overall by 7%. The odds below account for that change in game 4 (with everything else held constant), and they'll be the "official" odds I use for this game if Draymond is suspended.
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 10.27% (-12.83%)
Warriors in 7: 28.01% (+0.15%)
Thunder in 7: 10.89% (+2.09%)
Thunder in 6: 31.51% (+17.35%)
Thunder in 5: 19.32% (+13.79%)
Game 4 Odds:
Warriors win 31%/Thunder Win 69%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 80.68% (+6.76%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 38.9% (+2.24%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.20 (+0.09)
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 38.27% likely (-33.25%)
Thunder win series: 61.73% likely (+33.25%)
shoes22
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My odds remain quite bullish on the Cavs in this series, primarily because of their large perceived home advantage. But if they lose game 5, it won't be pretty.
Cavs in 4: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0% (-47.88%)
Cavs in 6: 42.33% (+16.54%)
Cavs in 7: 40.95% (+21.32%)
Raptors in 7: 8.39% (+4.65%)
Raptors in 6: 8.33% (+5.37%)
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Game 5 Odds:
Cavs win 83%/Raptors win 17%
Odds series goes 7 games: 49.34% (+25.97%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.49 (+0.74)
Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 83.28% likely (-10.02%)
Raptors win series: 16.72% likely (+10.02%)
Cavs in 6: 42.33% (+16.54%)
Cavs in 7: 40.95% (+21.32%)
Raptors in 7: 8.39% (+4.65%)
Raptors in 6: 8.33% (+5.37%)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Game 5 Odds:
Cavs win 83%/Raptors win 17%
Odds series goes 7 games: 49.34% (+25.97%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.49 (+0.74)
Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 83.28% likely (-10.02%)
Raptors win series: 16.72% likely (+10.02%)
shoes22
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The Warriors had their chance to prove that Game 3 was an outlier for them, and they couldn't. My model favors them by 3 points to squeak out a win at home, followed by the Thunder eliminating them in a clear-cut decision for Game 6.
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0% (-15.24%)
Warriors in 7: 10.72% (-19.3%)
Thunder in 7: 6.29% (-5.38%)
Thunder in 6: 45.99% (+18.04%)
Thunder in 5: 37% (+21.88%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63% (-21.88%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 17.01% (-24.68%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.80 (-0.47)
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 10.72% likely (-34.54%)
Thunder win series: 89.28% likely (+34.54%)
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0%
Warriors in 7: 10.72% (-19.3%)
Thunder in 7: 6.29% (-5.38%)
Thunder in 6: 45.99% (+18.04%)
Thunder in 5: 37% (+21.88%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63% (-21.88%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 17.01% (-24.68%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.80 (-0.47)
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 10.72% likely (-34.54%)
Thunder win series: 89.28% likely (+34.54%)
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nba/article79733707.html
Love your stats! There are 9 teams that came from deficits--most notably the '15 Rockets...
But it's also hard to compare those teams, etc. as there are different situations.