NBA betting thread

[BooyaCS]

I just bet my wife that the Cavs will win this series. I don't mean I bet against my wife, I mean that she is collateral backing the wager if the Cavs were to somehow lose the series.

What happens if you lose???

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I just bet my wife that the Cavs will win this series. I don't mean I bet against my wife, I mean that she is collateral backing the wager if the Cavs were to somehow lose the series.

I like it. That way if the Cavs win you're obviously thrilled, but if the Cavs lose at least you don't have to deal with your wife anymore!

Now that's what I call hedging with implied volatility, amirite?!?

 

[natedagg]

What happens if you lose???

Great question. I've calculated the odds to be 1/x as x approaches infinity, and I hadn't really thought of that. I like to spend my time mentally masturbating about what I'll do with the winnings.

I look for value. They were offering me top dollar on my collateral, which happens to be a liability on my balance sheet. It's amazing!

 

[gourimoko]

What happens if you lose???

Freedom.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Me patiently awaiting new odds

 

[shoes22]

Well that was exciting! Going into this series, the Thunder were roughly 32% underdogs, almost entirely because of the Warriors strength at home. With the Thunder upset last night, it pulls the series odds to about even right now, and the Warriors homecourt advantage nullified. With a Warriors Game 2 win, the predicted series scenario is likely to remain Warriors in 7. With another Thunder win, it'll likely shift to Thunder in 6.

Also a quick note about the "number of games" odds below, a new flourish I added for these Conference Finals series. It's mainly used as a measure of predicted competitiveness in a series. As percentage odds in that category increase, the more competitive the series is expected to be, and vice versa. So on a expected competitiveness scale of 1-4, with 1 being a sweep and 4 being a seven game series, this series is at a 3.

Here are your odds:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0% (-17.31%)
Warriors in 5: 10.04% (-18.38%)
Warriors in 6: 15.40% (-3.72%)
Warriors in 7: 22.68% (+5.31%)
Thunder in 7: 11.69% (+5.26%)
Thunder in 6: 19.16% (+12.09%)
Thunder in 5: 11.84% (+8.91%)
Thunder in 4: 9.19% (+7.85%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 66%/Thunder Win 34%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 90.81% (+9.46%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 68.93% (+18.93%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.37% (+10.57%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.94

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 48.12% likely (-34.1%)
Thunder win series: 51.88% likely (+34.1%)

 

[shoes22]

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Toronto Raptors (2)
Cavs in 4: 29.94% (+6.77%)
Cavs in 5: 39.97% (+4.23%)
Cavs in 6: 14.61% (-2.57%)
Cavs in 7: 11.27% (-3.81%)
Raptors in 7: 1.83% (-1.26%)
Raptors in 6: 2.05% (-2.09%)
Raptors in 5: 0.33% (-0.76%)
Raptors in 4: 0.0% (-0.51%)

Game 2 Odds:
Cavs win 86%/Raptors win 14%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 70.06% (-6.26%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 29.76% (-9.73%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 13.1% (-5.07%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.13 (-0.21)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 95.79% likely (+4.62%)
Raptors win series: 4.21% likely (-4.62%)

 

[FiveThous]

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Toronto Raptors (2)
Cavs in 4: 29.94% (+6.77%)
Cavs in 5: 39.97% (+4.23%)
Cavs in 6: 14.61% (-2.57%)
Cavs in 7: 11.27% (-3.81%)
Raptors in 7: 1.83% (-1.26%)
Raptors in 6: 2.05% (-2.09%)
Raptors in 5: 0.33% (-0.76%)
Raptors in 4: 0.0% (-0.51%)

Game 2 Odds:
Cavs win 86%/Raptors win 14%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 70.06% (-6.26%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 29.76% (-9.73%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 13.1% (-5.07%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.13 (-0.21)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 95.79% likely (+4.62%)
Raptors win series: 4.21% likely (-4.62%)

So you're telling me there's a chance!

 

[FiveThous]

What sites are you guys using to bet on? I hate how bovada sometimes won't even have a money line on the game.

 

[bigfoot5415]

What sites are you guys using to bet on? I hate how bovada sometimes won't even have a money line on the game.

sportsbook.ag

They post spreads early everyday. I feel like bovada waits until later in the day to hedge their best. That being said, I had far greater success on bovada for some reason.

They also accept bitcoin. Id prefer to use that then my CC for some international site.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Shoes have you used your model for betting at all? Do you keep a record of how it does ATS?

 

[shoes22]

Shoes have you used your model for betting at all? Do you keep a record of how it does ATS?

Not yet. I’ve basically been using this season as a test-run and perfecting the formula before unleashing it for real money next year.

 

[shoes22]

As expected, last night served as a "reset" game, swinging the pendulum almost back to where it was at initial projections. Game 3 is projected as a toss-up. Initial projections had the Warriors slightly favored a little more at around 56-57% for this game, but the Thunder's Game 1 performance pushed those odds closer to even. Because of this, Warriors winning in 5, 6, or 7 all have relatively equal odds of occurring...but the main thing is the Warriors should still end up winning the series overall.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 20.55% (+10.51%)
Warriors in 6: 23.10% (+7.7%)
Warriors in 7: 27.86% (+5.18%)
Thunder in 7: 8.80% (-2.89%)
Thunder in 6: 14.16% (-5%)
Thunder in 5: 5.53% (-6.31%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0% (-9.19%)

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 52%/Thunder Win 48%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 73.92% (+4.99%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 36.66% (+2.29%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.11 (+0.17)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 71.52% likely (+23.4%)
Thunder win series: 28.48% likely (-23.4%)

 

[shoes22]

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Toronto Raptors (2)
Cavs in 4: 37.21% (+7.27%)
Cavs in 5: 41.39% (+1.42%)
Cavs in 6: 11.85% (-2.76%)
Cavs in 7: 7.64% (-3.63%)
Raptors in 7: 1.14% (-0.69%)
Raptors in 6: 0.77% (-1.28%)
Raptors in 5: 0.0% (-0.33%)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Cavs win 61%/Raptors win 39%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 62.79% (-7.27%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 21.4% (-8.36%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 8.78% (-4.32%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.93 (-0.2)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 98.09% likely (+2.3%)
Raptors win series: 1.91% likely (-2.3%)

 

[shoes22]

How did Toronto winning tonight effect their odds of winning this series? It brought their overall odds up to about 6.5%. So congrats to them, I guess.

Cavs in 4: 0.0% (-37.21%)
Cavs in 5: 47.88% (+6.49%)
Cavs in 6: 25.79% (+13.94%)
Cavs in 7: 19.63% (+11.99%)
Raptors in 7: 3.74% (+2.6%)
Raptors in 6: 2.96% (+2.19%)
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Cavs win 57%/Raptors win 43%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 52.12% (+30.72%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 23.37% (+14.59%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.75 (+0.82)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 93.30% likely (-4.79%)
Raptors win series: 6.70% likely (+4.79%)