NBA betting thread

[SteelSmack]

Let's, uh, make sure this doesn't change tonight.

View: https://twitter.com/CBSSportsNBA/status/735534009430708225

 

[elcheato]

25/1 odds on the Raptors this late in the game, while tied 2-2 in the ECF, seems like a pretty good value bet.

 

[shoes22]

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Toronto Raptors (2)
Cavs in 4: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 6: 55% (+12.67%)
Cavs in 7: 38.25% (-2.7%)
Raptors in 7: 6.75% (-1.64%)
Raptors in 6: 0.0% (-8.33%)
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 4: 0.0%

Odds series goes 7 games: 45% (-4.34%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.45 (-0.04)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 93.25% likely (+9.97%)
Raptors win series: 6.75% likely (-9.97%)

 

[HurricaneKid]

OKC is +300 tonight. That's shocking to me. So is -230 for OKC to win the series. I don't know what answers Vegas thinks Golden State is going to respond with but they have been physically outclassed in this series. I fully expected SAS to win that last game and OKC had them down 30 most of the game. I'm by no means guaranteeing anything but 3:1 seems alarmingly high.

 

[HurricaneKid]

I think it is also telling that before the game last night while 2-2 Cavs were -1000 to win the EC while OKC was -250ish despite being up 3-1.

 

[AsianDawg]

Not familiar with betting but wouldn't OKC have better odds at -250? Or is it backwards? I know 538 sports had OKC winning title with 56 percent chance prior to last night's game.

I think it is also telling that before the game last night while 2-2 Cavs were -1000 to win the EC while OKC was -250ish despite being up 3-1.

 

[gourimoko]

Not familiar with betting but wouldn't OKC have better odds at -250? Or is it backwards? I know 538 sports had OKC winning title with 56 percent chance prior to last night's game.

FYI, Vegas odds have nothing to do with how 538 calculates their predictions.

 

[shoes22]

I think it is also telling that before the game last night while 2-2 Cavs were -1000 to win the EC while OKC was -250ish despite being up 3-1.

I'd reason this is because the sports books already have so many bets placed on the Cavs for a while now. The Thunder were more of a late emergence, especially compared to the other top 2 teams in the West.

 

[BooyaCS]

I'd reason this is because the sports books already have so many bets placed on the Cavs for a while now. The Thunder were more of a late emergence, especially compared to the other top 2 teams in the West.

That is why I think the future odds are more telling. As soon as a team is gone they are removed from the list.

Currently Cavs are 11/10 to win it all
OKC 3/2
GSW 4/1
Toronto 150/1

 

[HurricaneKid]

Not familiar with betting but wouldn't OKC have better odds at -250? Or is it backwards? I know 538 sports had OKC winning title with 56 percent chance prior to last night's game.

If its a -250 that means you have to wager 250 to win 100. If its -1000 you need to put up 1000 to win 100. one would assume a 3-1 advantage was so significantly better than a 2-2 they couldn't possibly be close, you would have needed to bet 4X as much on the Cavs to win the same amount. Knowing that relieved my Cleveland anxieties plenty pregame, then the game removed the rest.

Id be interested to see how 538 got to that total because it is SOOoo far from what Vegas has.

 

[David.]

If its a -250 that means you have to wager 250 to win 100. If its -1000 you need to put up 1000 to win 100. one would assume a 3-1 advantage was so significantly better than a 2-2 they couldn't possibly be close, you would have needed to bet 4X as much on the Cavs to win the same amount. Knowing that relieved my Cleveland anxieties plenty pregame, then the game removed the rest.

Id be interested to see how 538 got to that total because it is SOOoo far from what Vegas has.

They use a model based on attributing players and teams points, which really doesn't work in the playoffs because it's a matchup, consistency and coaching game at that point

 

[BooyaCS]

They use a model based on attributing players and teams points, which really doesn't work in the playoffs because it's a matchup, consistency and coaching game at that point

Doesn't 538 also use simulations?

 

[David.]

Doesn't 538 also use simulations?

I don't see simulations being as advanced as accounting for matchup, deficiencies and coaching. Especially if it's predicated on players, teams and their points.

Can't simulate a brain moving the teams pieces around and the opponent adjusting

 

[AsianDawg]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from Record Conf Point Diff Conf Semis Conf Finals Finals Championship
17671773
+32

Thunder11-4West+7.0✓✓84%54%
17051715
-3

Cavaliers11-2East+6.3✓✓87%32%
17671772
-32

Warriors9-5West+9.9✓✓16%12%
16101618
+3

Raptors10-9East+2.9✓✓13%3%

 

[gourimoko]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from Record Conf Point Diff Conf Semis Conf Finals Finals Championship
17671773
+32

Thunder11-4West+7.0✓✓84%54%
17051715
-3

Cavaliers11-2East+6.3✓✓87%32%
17671772
-32

Warriors9-5West+9.9✓✓16%12%
16101618
+3

Raptors10-9East+2.9✓✓13%3%

I think those forecasts are next to worthless. To be perfectly honest.

You'd be better off throwing some dried out chicken bones into a metal pan, shaking it, and gleaning the results from how they settle.