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After a little scare, we're back to the status quo in the world of NBA odds and everything is going as predicted. The Warriors-Blazers series below is accounting for Steph returning and being at ~80%. That series is effectively over.

The Raptors/Heat series is a clusterfuck with each scenario having roughly equal odds due to injuries and ineffective play. The Raptors have a slight edge in the odds due to having 2 potential home games left.

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0% (-23.18%)
Raptors in 6: 22.2% (+2.2%)
Raptors in 7: 31.56% (+6.05%)
Heat in 7: 21.04% (+4.73%)
Heat in 6: 25.2% (+10.21%)
Heat in 5: 0.0%
Heat in 4: 0.0%

Game 5 Odds:
Raptors win 60%/Heat win 40%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 53.76% likely (-14.94%)
Heat win series: 46.24% likely (+14.94%)


Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 77% (+41.64%)
Warriors in 6: 13.34% (-12.29%)
Warriors in 7: 7.44% (-14.08%)
Trailblazers in 7: 2.22% (-7.91%)
Trailblazers in 6: 0.0% (-7.37%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 97.78% likely (+15.28%)
Trailblazers win series: 2.22% likely (-15.28%)
 
Congrats Thunder, on being 7/10ths of the way there of dethroning 1 of the 2 giants in the Western Conference. All that's left is to go in for the knockout punch.

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%
Spurs in 5: 0.0%
Spurs in 6: 0.0% (-30.15%)
Spurs in 7: 28.14% (-6.5%)
Thunder in 7: 13.86% (-3.2%)
Thunder in 6: 58% (+39.85%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0%
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 28.14% likely (-36.65%)
Thunder win series: 71.86% likely (+36.65%)
 
Predictions for last night's games were on point as well!

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 6: 39% (+16.8%)
Raptors in 7: 38.43% (+6.87%)
Heat in 7: 22.57% (+1.53%)
Heat in 6: 0.0% (-25.2%)
Heat in 5: 0.0%
Heat in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 77.43% likely (+23.67%)
Heat win series: 22.57% likely (-23.67%)
 
What does the model say for SAS/OKC? Are you thinking MIA/TOR goes 7?
 
FiveThous said:
What does the model say for SAS/OKC? Are you thinking MIA/TOR goes 7?
Click to expand...
I have OKC slightly favored in game 6, 58/42, or by 2 points.
I also have Miami favored 61/39 in game 6, or by 2.5 points. So yes, that one should go 7, but due to the injuries to Val, Whiteside, and now Deng and Carroll, I'd stay away from betting on that series. Not having enough of a sample size with those adjusted lineups makes the margin of error for this series much higher than usual.
 
shoes22 said:
I have OKC slightly favored in game 6, 58/42, or by 2 points.
I also have Miami favored 61/39 in game 6, or by 2.5 points. So yes, that one should go 7, but due to the injuries to Val, Whiteside, and now Deng and Carroll, I'd stay away from betting on that series. Not having enough of a sample size with those adjusted lineups makes the margin of error for this series much higher than usual.
Click to expand...
Well I should learn to never doubt my model because it was right yet again. Here's your forecast for game 7:

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 6: 0.0% (-39%)
Raptors in 7: 59% (+20.57%)
Heat in 7: 41% (+18.43%)
Heat in 6: 0.0%
Heat in 5: 0.0%
Heat in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 59% likely (-18.43%)
Heat win series: 41% likely (+18.43%)

And as promised, here's the odds for the Golden State-OKC Western Conference Finals...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 17.31%
Warriors in 5: 28.42%
Warriors in 6: 19.12%
Warriors in 7: 17.37%
Thunder in 7: 6.43%
Thunder in 6: 7.07%
Thunder in 5: 2.93%
Thunder in 4: 1.34%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 73%/Thunder Win 27%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 81.35%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 50%
Odds series goes 7 games: 23.8%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 82.22% likely
Thunder win series: 17.78% likely
 
Last edited:
Update on system w/l in the postseason?
 
shoes22 said:
Well I should learn to never doubt my model because it was right yet again. Here's your forecast for game 7:

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 6: 0.0% (-39%)
Raptors in 7: 59% (+20.57%)
Heat in 7: 41% (+18.43%)
Heat in 6: 0.0%
Heat in 5: 0.0%
Heat in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 59% likely (-18.43%)
Heat win series: 41% likely (+18.43%)

And as promised, here's the odds for the Golden State-OKC Western Conference Finals...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Warriors in 4: 17.31%
Warriors in 5: 28.42%
Warriors in 6: 19.12%
Warriors in 7: 17.37%
Thunder in 7: 6.43%
Thunder in 6: 7.07%
Thunder in 5: 2.93%
Thunder in 4: 1.34%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 73%/Thunder Win 27%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 81.35%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 50%
Odds series goes 7 games: 23.8%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 82.22% likely
Thunder win series: 17.78% likely
Click to expand...
I made the same prediction as Shoes model!!!

Therefore I am one with the model
 
Now that the second round is in the books, let's see how we did. Of the 4 second round series, it correctly identified the winner in 2/4 series from initial projections (Cavs and Warriors advancing), and in the Raptors-Heat matchup, the Heat's overall winning odds were only 3% more than the Raptors, reflecting the closeness and tossup nature of that series.

The model projected the exact outcome in only one series from initial projections, which was Warriors in 5. Truth be told, I'm not that interested in this model's accuracy of predicting the exact outcome of a series, simply due to the nature of how the projected odds work. For example, from the outset of a series the model will never project the higher-seeded team winning in 6 games as the most likely outcome, because in order for that to happen that team would have to have higher percentage odds of winning on the road than they do at home. So the hope instead is that the model will zero in on the correct outcome as more games are played. The results do bear that out. For the second round in a row, the model did eventually zero-in on the correct outcomes of every series...Warriors in 5 from the beginning, Cavs in 4 after Game 2, Raptors in 7 after Game 3, and Thunder in 6 after that series' pivotal Game 5.

But like I've said all along, the true strength of the model is predicting individual games. Here were the game-by-game winner predictions for every game in this round. Incorrect predictions are marked in red.

Game 1: Cavs win, Spurs win, Warriors win, Raptors win (3/4 correct)
Game 2: Spurs win, Warriors win, Cavs win, Raptors win (3/4 correct)
Game 3: Thunder win, Warriors win, Cavs win, Heat win (1/4 correct)
Game 4: Cavs win, Thunder win, Heat win, Warriors win (4/4 correct)
Game 5: Spurs win, Raptors win, Warriors win (2/3 correct)
Game 6: Thunder win, Heat win (2/2 correct)
Game 7: Raptors win (1/1 correct)

In total, it correctly predicted 16/22 games in this round. Adding that to the total from the first round, it's correctly predicted the winner in of 55 out of the 66 games played in the playoffs so far. I will take it!

Anyway that's enough of that, here's your Eastern Conference Finals Odds!

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Toronto Raptors (2)
Cavs in 4: 23.17%
Cavs in 5: 35.74%
Cavs in 6: 17.18%
Cavs in 7: 15.08%
Raptors in 7: 3.09%
Raptors in 6: 4.14%
Raptors in 5: 1.09%
Raptors in 4: 0.51%

Game 1 Odds:
Cavs win 83%/Raptors win 17%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 76.32%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 39.49%
Odds series goes 7 games: 18.17%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 91.17% likely
Raptors win series: 8.83% likely
 
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